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Iuz the Evil

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Posts posted by Iuz the Evil

  1. 31 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

    JUST dropped into my inbox...US believes a branch of ISIS, based in Afghanistan and a frequent critic of Putin, is responsible for the Moscow attack that...last I saw...claimed 40 lives.

    And, yeah...fearmongering is likely sufficient explanation too.  And certainly, BOTH can be true.

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/22/europe/crocus-moscow-shooting/index.html
     

    confirmed, ISIS took credit

  2. 1 hour ago, Old Man said:

     

    You don't have to wonder; this is absolutely what's happening.  The thing about SCOTUS is that it has no enforcement capability of its own.  Its power derives from its perception as an impartial arbiter of law.   Today's SCOTUS includes of two openly corrupt justices, one more who stole his seat from Garland, and two shockingly unqualified justices who were installed as a reward for helping with Bush v. Gore back in the day.  Now we get rulings where logic and stare decisis are jettisoned in order to come to a predetermined political outcome, such as Dobbs, or Bruen which my state has elected to ignore, or Colorado.  Thus, trust in our institutions is eroded, as intended.

    Well, the enforcement authority lies with the executive branch and they haven’t been taking action for a variety of reasons. If California or New York decide to ignore Bruen, nothing much is happening under this administration. Might change with a different one. Same with Dobbs, really. There’s a lot the Federal government can theoretically do, but it takes the will to do it and that can cut both ways. So I’m thinking some of it is related to the perceived stature of the Court, and some of it that the Executive branch is polarized by whoever happens to be in the chair at the time and as a result takes no action supporting the Court’s rulings. (Not sure what they could do about Colorado). If you get an executive branch that supports these rulings, that might look pretty different, as it has in the past.
     

    Now we have a Constitutional Sheriffs movement that’s taking off, 14 Counties in very progressive California (of 58) have very publicly told the State that they’ll not be enforcing laws they deem unconstitutional. And while California can legally tell them they are not allowed to do that, good luck enforcing that position. How will you prove lack of enforcement? What do you legally have the ability to do regarding an elected official who has local support for the position they are taking? Sheriffs have a lot of power practically, and there are few systems to curtail that outside the vote (which will continue to go in their favor if they are endorsing a locally popular position). Is harder that it sounds and the potential for very serious breakdown of our systems is quite real. 
     

    i don’t like anything about this stuff, we have processes for this. “Just do what you know is right” is a path to anarchy in my opinion. It’ll be interesting, and potentially very unpleasant, to watch this play out. 

  3. That’s an interesting article, there have been numerous cases in recent years where district courts tend to push up against (or ignore, or circumvent) Supreme Court rulings, I’m wondering if the politicization of the SCOTUS is contributing to that by reducing their perceived stature and impartiality with the lesser courts.

     

    I generally don’t like it when the legal system doesn’t follow its own rules. Being the law and all that…

  4. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/07/europe/sweden-join-nato-official-intl/index.html
     

    Sweden ends a 200 year policy of nonalignment going back to the Napoleonic wars to join NATO. This is absolutely devastating to Putin’s dreams of empire reconstruction, and in my opinion a huge success for the safety and stability of Europe in the face of Russian expansionism. It’s also a repudiation for military adventurism as a political tool. 
     

    Good news in my book. Sweden is no joke, Finland either, when it comes to their military contribution to the alliance. As a deterrent force, NATO just got stronger.

  5. I think it’s reasonable to be concerned about the cognitive facilities of any individual running for President who is of an age to be required to show up in person to renew a license and is subject to family requests for license review. The Donald exceeds that by a healthy margin in California (70), as does his opponent.

     

     It would be nice to have candidates with a little less tread worn off their tires, but it is what it is. I could see either of them not having their full cognitive facilities, and likely both.

  6. We’ve got some interesting new pending legislation out here in the Golden State. Exit tax for folks who leave (with individual or combined income over $15M/$30M). Proposed new wealth tax. SB2 restrictions on concealed carry locations (including the “vampire clause” which makes it illegal to carry unless a business or private property owner explicitly posts that they welcome CCW). Repurposing about 30% of the Mental Health Services Act funding for housing in a major ballot initiative this March (7% of this funding would also go to the State for regulation of the new initiative, and prevention is removed entirely from the Act obligations). Expansion of the “gravely disabled” definitions for psychiatric holds and conservatorship to include substance abuse, which was effective January 1 but delayed by most jurisdictions until 2026.
     

    It’s an interesting time. The Governor is indicating only a $38B shortfall, the legislative analyst said it’s $68B. None of the new initiatives implemented the past several years are significantly cut in the budget proposal, there are a series of payment delays to local government and some repurposing of Behavioral Health funding. I’m not sure what’s going to happen but it’ll definitely be a rough year in California. Hopefully we get good rainfall and avoid a major fire season. 
     

    Edit: for clarity, the SB2 sensitive spaces clause has a stay on it pending the 9th circuit ruling.

  7. Even in California, one in four voters identifies as Republican. Nationally it’s quite a bit higher. Those people aren’t leaving the nation, and we’ve been hearing for decades nationally about demographic transformation and shifting politics but every cycle it is a razor thin margin. And often more about individual candidates or issues than general policy.

     

    We all tend to be in echo chambers these days, seeking confirmation of beliefs that are comforting in their consistency with our own. I wouldn’t expect that trend to reverse soon, and this upcoming cycle is going to be difficult to predict until sometime later next year (not only for the POTUS, but the Senate as well with Manchin retiring and other changes… there’s a number of seats where the candidate won’t be back or hasn’t declared). I don’t know how it will go, but it’ll be contentious.

  8. 18 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

    I believe the writers have made and are making a big mistake by turning the Watcher from his classic What If? role of observer and narrator, into an active participant in the stories. Having him just walk along chatting with other characters distracts from the story playing out as the logical consequence of "What if such-and-such happens?" When this nigh-omnipotent being becomes just another player in the story, it turns into, "What if such-and-such happens, and the Watcher does or doesn't interfere?" It also strips away the Watcher's aura of being on a level far above these mortals, privileged to know what they can never comprehend, yet bound to remain aloof.

     

    It's also kind of weird that Peggy Carter now seems to be the Watcher's pet human, like Jean-Luc Picard was to Q. I like Captain Carter, but I don't see why she should matter more to him than the many other heroes in the Multiverse. Unless this is another manifestation of that female-dominance kick that Marvel seems to have been on the past few years.


    Indeed, I like Captain Carter. I do not understand why the Watcher cares about her more than the billions of humans (trillions?) who die in the course of the incidents he’s observing. 

  9. Liked What If Season 2, except for whatever that terrible revision of the Mohawk was. That would have been interesting if they’d played it even remotely accurately to the actual historic Mohawk, I would’ve enjoyed seeing the warlike conquering tribe they actually historically were, subjugating North America and likely the globe. Maybe coming into conflict with the 1602 folks and other Marvel time tossed concepts. I don’t know what the heck that actually was. Mostly just bad.

     

    The rest of it was pretty fun. Particularly liked the What If Hela Found the Ten Rings? “Maybe not the flowers though, knives would be much more serviceable”. Hahaha. It was 🤔 interesting to see her in the tutelage of Wen Wah. The inevitable ending confrontation was equally funny (“I gave peace a chance”) and cinematic, even if it was derivative of the original Thor movie that was intentional.

     

    “1602” was rather disappointing, they’d have needed to spend like 3+ episodes to have a decent homage to the comic series. But it was okay, if you aren’t into actual history that much. The comics were so much better though.

     

     Solid B from me overall. Pretty fun stuff.

     

     

     

     

  10. Merry Christmas. Finishing gift wrapping to a traditional holiday classic movie, heading to my mom’s tonight for dinner and church. Tomorrow it’s presents with my lady love, and a great dinner with my mom and brother.

     

     Whatever you care about, may this week bring you joy.

     

    Bruce Willis Film GIF

  11. 1 hour ago, Old Man said:

     

    "Centrist" is a term that has lost all useful meaning in the United States where state sponsored healthcare is some kind of wacko extremist idea, and where billionaires often pay less tax than I do.  Haley is a nutjob.  She might be slightly less nutjob than Trump, but only just.

     

    Also, I'm really enjoying this timeline where what matters is what candidates are backed by which billionaires.  /s

    You and me both. It’s a lot of money.

     

    https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/biggest-donors

  12. 35 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

    Haley is far behind Trump in polls of Republican voters, but her poll numbers have been rising pretty steadily while those of the other also-rans have declined or flatlined. Haley is close to Ron DeSantis in aggregate poll numbers, and has beaten him in a number of polls. (See recent polling results.) If Donnie's troubles with the law render him unable to run in the primaries, Nikki is in a strong position to take the Republican nomination.

     

    Nikki Haley would be an obvious improvement over Donald Trump in terms of competence, but with all she's said and done I still don't want her anywhere near the Oval Office. :no:


    The Koch network just backed Haley. Be interesting to see if she can swing it, but primaries have become ever more the selection of candidates by extreme fringe elements. She’s wildly more centrist than Trump, although obviously far to the right. I don’t think that helps her, but maybe folks are tired of the bluster. That would be at least a reduction.

     

     It’s going to be a bumpy ride this election season. I don’t feel great about another Trump-Biden matchup.

  13. https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-10-10-23/h_72b24198b48f49dae4a02f53b6f9da81
     

    Israel has “released all constraints” on the IDF in their war against Hamas. The Israeli defense minister was quoted as saying, “Hamas wanted a change in Gaza, it will change 180 degrees from what he thought. They will regret this moment. Gaza will never return to what it was”

     

    This is going to be happening for a while, I think there’s very little likelihood for anything but a re-occupation by the IDF, but we will see what happens. Right now they’re shelling, have cut off power, water, and are massing forces. Oh and Israel is looking really hard for evidence of Iranian involvement (which is likely, in the opinion of most intelligence agencies I’ve seen quoted, but they currently do not have proof of this).

     

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