unclevlad

Youch...the Patriot Day game in Boston just finished.  High Heat comes on...I'm not a Mad Dog fan, so it's time to turn the TV off.  

But man...his opening comments are on the bad teams.  "The White Sox are not a professional baseball club."

My, my....  OK, it's Russo, and his normal runs to the hyperbolic.  But 2-13 is 2-13...and if there's a stat even uglier than the Rockies' pitching stats, it's the White Sox's runs scored.  34 runs in 15 games.  

The sooner LeBron is gone from the playoffs, the happier I'll be.

Play-in...the West plays Tues, the East Fri, and the 2nd round for both are on Friday.  The West are both pure pick'em...Pels -1, Warriors -1.5.  East has more of a spread...Philly, with Embiid back, is -4, and Bulls are -3.  What's interesting to me is, if Philly wins, they play #2 Knicks.  Define parity?  #2 would have all of 3 more wins than #7.

Understand something here.

The AAU being discussed is the Association of American Universities.  They were booted for several factors.  
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/governance/executive-leadership/2023/08/15/cast-out-12-years-ago-nebraska-seeks-return-aau

The Big Ten's frequently tried to sell itself as a conference of premier schools, and this would be part of it.

If push comes to shove...it probably won't...I suspect the AAU membership rule would be dropped, if they *really* wanted a particular university.

The story right below that is also interesting.  It discusses the next round of realignment...with the collapse of the ACC.  

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According to longtime college football radio host Greg Swaim, the Big 12 will want Louisville, NC State, VA Tech, and either Pitt or GA Tech once the ACC collapses -- with that scenario taking place after the SEC takes FSU and Clemson and the Big Ten takes UNC and UVA.

 

"Sources tonight tell us that Clemson and FSU to the SEC, with AAU accredited schools UNC and UVA to the Big Ten," Swaim prefaced before saying, "After this the ACC becomes untenable, as the media revenue after losing those schools will be similar to the Pac-12 after losing USC and UCLA.

I'll argue...they might skip this.  If FSU and Clemson show they're really ready to bolt, then...forget it, let's just form the Super League and flip the bird at the NCAA.  Why bother with the intermediate step?  (Well, OK, there may well be reasons.  It's possible there'd be a few years of 3 real conferences and a horde of munchkins, but I see no way it'd remain any longer than it'd take to work out the TV deals.

7 hours ago, Pariah said:

Not with a bang, but a whimper.

 

Dan Bickley: Arizona Coyotes relocation not our fault, it’s on the owner and local politics

Article in The Athletic points this out:

 

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It is sometimes difficult to keep track of who owned the Coyotes and for how long (Richard Burke, Steve Ellman, Moyes, a consortium of Canadian investors fronted by George Gosbee, Andrew Barroway and most recently Alex Meruelo) and all those who kicked the tires on the franchise, without ever investing any actual dollars into the operation.

And later

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The Coyotes have been a corporate clown show for so long mostly because Bettman couldn’t let go of his obsession with the market. 

<snip>

In the end, it’s hard not to dissect every part of the Coyotes’ never-ending sad story without seeing Bettman’s fingerprints everywhere you look.

There's always a potential problem going into the last game of the season...some teams have no incentive to win.

Most extreme case this year...Mavs vs. OKC.  Mavs, it turns out, are locked into the #5 seed...Clips were a game up on them, they were a game up on the Pels...but the tiebreakers are such that they were locked in.

So they sat their entire starting 5.  OKC, OTOH, was part of the 3-way tie, so they had every incentive to win.  OKC was up 17 after 1, and buried the Mavs in the 2nd quarter, 43-19.  

Pelicans are 2 minutes away from a disappointing finish.  They're at home, but Lakers are up 19.  If the Pelis lose, they drop from #6 to #7...and therefore into the play-in.  Oh, and guess who they'd play.  Yeah.  Lakers.

Disclaimer:  It is a point of pride with me that I have never, and will never, deliberately watched 1 minute of one episode of ANY of the made-for-TV romance shows.  Unfortunately, I have had their ads inflicted on my long-suffering brain, or what's left of it.

So...after an even MORE sappy than usual run, the Golden Bachelor ended with a wedding.

And now, 3 months later, the marriage is over.  The two people involved announced they intend to divorce.  NYT story suggests it was family issues...not that the families objected, but that they both liked spending time with their families, and...those families don't live in the same place.  OOPS!

Another NYT story noted that the track record for the franchise is...umm...bad.  In the 20 year run...44 separate groups...there were 34 proposals.  There are 6 couples still married.

Count me in the large group that just says "duh!"

Story being updated now.  The aerial attack did very little damage.  NYT is reporting minor damage to 1 military base, with no injuries.  CNN says Biden administration says "almost all" drones and missiles were shot down.

1.  Technically nothing on its own...which is why it's so cheap.  It becomes a justification for several things, more than anything...things like Rapid Attack, or Two Hand Defense, or even + to OCV and DCV.  OCV...feint with one weapon, attack with a different.  DCV, always have a free hand to block.

2.  You can use the equipment book, but you don't need to.  The cornerstone question is, does STR apply, do you get to add STR to the damage?  If so, then it's an HA or (likely) HKA.  If not, then it's a Blast, No Range.  Note that Blast, No Range fits in something of a rules hole, in that it's not quite ranged and it's not quite melee.  In most cases, you want to define it as an HA or HKA.  Reach has a somewhat messy, complex definition based on Stretching with some limitations...me, I prefer to define it as an adder.  +1m for 1 point.  Vibro blade or energy blade...that's SFX.  

3.  No, you'd get nothing for the weapon-limbs, why should you?  What have you lost?  Nothing, since the other limbs do have hands.  There are some tables...see 6E2 171.  BTW, wood is organic.

Robin.  Any kiddy version thereof.  Sort of on the Wesley Crusher principle.

We can perhaps exclude the Jason Todd version, because, well, it got voted off the island anyway.

Or of course, we can say it's a slam dunk to include him....for the same reason.

That's true, right now there are no rules on NIL, but hey, this is the NCAA.  There may never be because they're inept.  That's a big reason for the Super League push, I think...and that the Big 10 and SEC want more control.

What I'm saying is, very few players are getting free cars.  Free *lease*...maybe.  That'd be easier to see.  But not outright free car.  And to be honest, I wouldn't want a new car...because that's *income* and now it has to be reported.  Ergo?  It's taxable.  Would you rather win $40K on Jeopardy...or a $40K prize package on The Price is Right?  (Side note, I caught the showdown of one TPIR evening show...the packages were like 50-60K each.)  No brainer there, right?  ESPECIALLY given how many TPIR prize packages include a lotta stuff I'd be, at best, ambivalent about.

I also expect the number's not that large...and I think you'll agree, almost all in football and men's basketball, for serious deals.  Many of em are for appearances.  There's an ad for a local HVAC firm that has 2 UTEP players...that one gets shown a lot.  I believe one of the Cruces car companies uses a couple Aggies.  There's probably more;  I almost never watch the local stations, other than during a game...and those are mostly national ads.  

This is a comment about NMSU's NIL collective:

The first NIL deals it facilitated were for men's basketball players Sir'Jabari Rice and Johnny McCants with Doña Ana Pain & Injury. 

Not big bucks there.

EDIT:  I think the problem is, the NIL deals we hear about are for the best players on the best, most well-known teams.  That tends to skew our perceptions.  How many backup offensive linemen have big NIL deals, tho?  

Read the Enhanced Senses rules.

7 hours ago, Steve said:

It looks like I made a misstatement on my comment earlier. If a character has any resistant defenses, then the added PD/ED versus STUN only doesn’t need to be made resistant. It would apply as-is if there were other resistant defenses. So 6 active points of STUN only PD/ED would be four points, plus two points for 6 active points of Power Defense versus STUN Drains only (if I did my math right). A total of six points.

 

Or I could buy a die of Damage Negation, limited to STUN only for three points.

 

Using Damage Negation is a simpler, cleaner build, and it has added benefits beyond just resisting regular or killing attacks. It would take a little math at the table to apply it to advantaged attacks, but that isn’t a deal killer.

You can't apply STUN Only to PD or ED by RAW, and here I do agree with those saying I'd never allow it.  It becomes far too cheap.  And in this case, the clear evidence is, they chose not to include it....because it does exist in RAW for other powers.

1 hour ago, Grailknight said:

 

I fail to see how a power with a Custom Limitation constitutes a simpler build than PD or ED. Also, the fact that it precisely duplicates an existing Power for less points sems to violate a metarule.

Since the last point you quoted was about DN...STUN Only is not a custom limitation on DN or DR.  It's RAW.  Nor does it duplicate...PD/ED applies to the BODY of an attack.  STUN Only DN doesn't.  The fact that you've got so much defense against the BODY doesn't change the nature of the power.

Maverick from Top Gun.  

ok, finally...it didn't want to paste this.  On this chart, the X axis is STUN.  The Y axis is the probability you'll take that much STUN, OR MORE.  Same parameters...8d6-14, 12d6-28.  The 4 dice of DN comes out slightly better in much of the crucial range...generally, for the same percent chance, the DN STUN is 1-2 points lower.  STUN, % Chance 8 dice, % chance 12 dice.  So, for example, 24% it'll be 17+ with DN, 18+ without.  What you do have is that the DN does damp the chance of a particularly high roll.  24 STUN on 8d6-14 is 38 rolled, so that's right at +2 standard deviations.  24 STUN on 12d6-28 is 52 rolled, or about +1.67 standard deviations. 

I was doing 4 DCs of negation on those, versus 14 DEF.  3 DCs negation...do you treat that as 10 or 11 DEF?  It actually makes a pretty clear difference on something I use a lot...the risk of getting stunned.  Look at the percent chance of rolling a specific number in the mid-40s range on 12d6...it's about 6% per, so even that 1 point of difference is notable.  And that's just based on "round up or round down."  Going with 4 DCs vs. 14 DEF...no such issue.

I see...ok, I'll fix the lead-in.  I re-wrote a LOT of the post and missed that I was using 3 DCs negation at the top.

It's a matter of self-image and fan expectation.  Kentucky does not view themselves as top 10%...or even top 10.

From what I've read...Kentucky's support for NIL in basketball is poor.  One of the Marriott Bonvoy ads shown in March Madness had UNC's Elliot Cadeau on camera, ultimately leading the mascots and cheerleaders out, as the ad ended.  On camera for a good bit of time.  He's a freshman, and a good contributor, but averaged the lowest points per game of all the starters.  There's a REAL good chance that UNC helped get him that gig.  I think that's the kind of thing Kentucky may not be doing.

The transfer portal has already changed basketball dramatically.  It's not "just beginning to"....it's a done deal.  Veteran teams are largely beating the young and inexperienced teams.  That strongly showed this season;  Kentucky and Duke were the poster children for young, inexperienced...and wildly inconsistent.  

Not many players bring in mid 6 digits plus...On3 has a list of NIL valuations, and #21 is down to $1M.  That's all sports, and many of the biggest are football.  They're also "celebrities" by other assessments...Deion's kid, LeBron's kid.  I suspect $20K to $50K might be fairly common, and even that is more than enough to cause problems if you don't know how to handle it.  Altho in some cases, it's NOT counted as NIL money per se...Caitlin Clark isn't in the top 100.  She's getting paid through a direct contract with Allstate.  NIL money is massively top-heavy, and connected to marketability.  

One of the other issues in college basketball is, only the top 60 or so have any real chance of making it.  Heck, I think if you're a 2nd round draft pick, you're a tossup to make an NBA team, versus at best a split G League/NBA contract.  Those contracts don't pay *that* great...so there's more incentive for that substantial 2nd tier to continue in college, and probably net out pretty well, while hopefully rising in the draft.  That translates to making it even more risk-prone to rely purely on the one-and-dones.

2 hours ago, Grailknight said:

But you equated it 10 points of either PD or ED and it is much better than that. Those 10 points allow STUN damage on 50% of rolls of 3d6 if spent on PD/ED but are 100% effective if spent on STUN only DN. And there is no situation where the PD/ED would apply where the DN does not. One of these is clearly not getting what you pay for.

Yes and no.  You're not considering the overall defensive structure.  Let's say 12 DCs.  Let's go with 14 rDEF, then either 10 nrDEF or 3 dice STUN only.  The 10 nrDEF helps cancel more than the 5 STUN you roll on those 3 dice, when that happens...and 5 is just as likely as 16.  it largely balances out.  EDIT per Grail:  OOPS.  No, 4 DCs, 14 DEF.  Because 3 DCs does not have an integer expectation.

The sense where the DN is somewhat better is because the distribution of damage changes.   

The columns are aligned on net STUN taken, comparing 8d6 with 14 DEF (4 dice negation) versus 12d6 with 28 DEF.  The last 4 columns show the cumulative distributions.  P8 is the probability for 8 dice that the stun will not EXCEED the stun total S8.  P12 and S12 are the same for 12 dice.  Since it's "will not exceed"...higher is better for the player.

That's the last 4 columns as a graph.  The DN is a bit better...but not enough better to matter overall.

Where it does matter is in determining the percent change to be stunned.  Say a 20 CON...so it's 8d6 > 35 or 12d6 > 48.  Here...the CON is pushing you much further out to the low-probability tail section of the 8d6...not so much with the 12d6, because the standard deviation of 12d6 is about a pip higher than for 8d6.  Still...we're talking SMALL differences.

So roll them and just count the BODY, for the dice where the STUN is negated.  That's not a rules issue, it's simply a procedural one.  Or just say they do average BODY.  That isn't grounds to throw the limitation out.

STUN only is already in RAW, too.  6E1 184, STUN (or BODY) only.  You have a point, that Nonresistant also removes even MORE defenses, and it's worth less.  That's a clear problem in RAW that, I think, has never been clearly exposed.  At least not that I can recall.  My interpretation of STUN Only isn't explicitly in the rules;  I'm reasoning from effect.  It can only eliminate STUN...that's what it flat out says.  OK, so it can't counter the BODY of AVAD Does BODY, and there are no stun pips to address for a Drain BODY or Drain STUN.  

Something is definitely messed up, that's glaringly self-evident.  I'd start with Nonresistant, tho.  Nonresistant for DR is effectively -1/2...but actually slightly better, because further limitations from 2/3 the base reduce costs as well or better than starting from the full base with a -1/2 limit.  (60 points with -1 is 30;  40 points with -1/2 is 27.)  The rules for applying DN and DR, in resistant and nonresistant cases, are identical...so why is NR only -1/4 on DN, but -1/2 on DR?

41 minutes ago, Grailknight said:

Plus, that 3 real points of limited DN is still equivalent to 6 PD or ED. It doesn't stop an average of the DC's, it stops them completely even if you would have rolled maximum damage every time.

And it would only stop 1 STUN if you roll a 1.  You cannot assume a 6.  You assume the mathematical expectation...which is 3.5.  Your argument is saying that, say, 4 DCs Negation is worth 24...when it's less than 1000 to 1 that you'll roll 24 on 4d6.  Not valid.

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While i could see just buying extra PD/ED that only affects STUN, seven active points of PD (Resistant, STUN only) i

You can't buy Armor, PD, or ED (or in 5E, Force Field) as STUN only.  DN (for 6E) and DR only.  

Also, Normal PD counts against the STUN of a killing attack, so there's no reason to make it resistant.

And I'll go back...if you aren't gonna allow STUN only DR or DN, then how is a player expected to address the massive leftover STUN?  DR is horribly inefficient, and you're still getting hammered for considerable STUN, which is still a big problem.  OK, the secondary aspect that it heavily negates AVADs helps in the efficiency angle, but man, it means those Mental Attacks are pretty much gutted...net 1d6 damage for 20 points?  YUCK.  

Iceman

I dunno, I could never warm up to him....

They want it to be big...but right now it's not.  Kentucky basketball backers are like UCLA basketball, or USC or Notre Dame football backers...living in the past.

The proximate cause for Calipari leaving relates to.....what else.  Football.  The drive to increase presence in that sphere...which Kentucky did.  But a story Wednesday in The Athletic pointed out that this meant the AD didn't want to deal with improving practice facilities or NIL.  The latter in particular...that's huge now.  And it's clearly warning that Kentucky is *not* a top tier program at this time.  They'll have to make numerous changes to get back...much like Duke, for example.  It isn't just the departure of Coach K...or Roy Williams at UNC...it's adapting to the new college sports realities.

It may well be that fighting back to the top is easier for Kentucky than for, say, USC, but right now, IMO, they're massively overrated.

1 hour ago, Old Man said:

Hear that, Pariah?  You're rich!

So's Geritol.....

You're focusing too much on the fact that it's a limitation..rather than the fact that the system has extremely limited methods to reduce STUN.  And what you're saying is, if STUN only isn't allowed, then I'm forced to spend points to no purpose...because I only need about 1/3 of that defense to stop BODY.  Why not simply buy base PD/ED?  I can have 12 hardened def for 15 points...or 3 dice of negation that would give 10 against a normal attack, and less against an AP due to DC adjustment.  Also note that the gap grows wider and wider as the scale increases.  BODY's stopped by defenses a bit more than the DC total...somewhere around 1/3 to 2/5 of the total defenses is for stopping the BODY, but when you're getting into 14 and 16 DCs, that's a LOT of points spent that's useless.  

In short?  The meta rule is pay for what you get...and get what you pay for.  You're not getting what you paid for....or, you're giving a really high value to the ancillary defenses.  With DR, perhaps...that might be the case.  But with DN, it's massively damped.  Take a Mental Blast...at 10 points per, it takes 2 DCs negation to subtract 1d6 from a mental blast.  On the plus side, to be sure...it's applying to any such.  And there's need to set what it defends against...that NND LS: Cold from Mr. Freeze, the mental attack of Brain Cramp, or the AVAD Power Def from Darklight...defends agaisnt em all, even in the same phase.

If you value this, tho...recognize that STUN only negation does NOT help against the BODY from AVAD, Does BODY, or the damage from Drain STUN or Drain BODY.  So there's a real loss of functionality for you.

My bugaboo is "you can never assume the double play."  The play at second where the fielder missed the bag.  The out at second is made, then the ball's thrown away...when the batter's still 15 feet from the bag.  Not a throwing error?  Ridiculous.  Heck, I'd be fine with, say....runners on 1st and 3rd, 1 out.  Fly ball to the outfield, not all that deep.  Outfielder makes the catch...then throws the ball to second.  Runner at third did not break on the catch...but hey, with the ball going to second???  Free run.

The team error...yeah.  How about when 2 fielders collide, and the ball drops?  That'd be another.  

35 minutes ago, DShomshak said:

As noted, his lawyers have figured out how to game all the defenses developed to prevent rogue prosecutors and judges from railroading the innocent. The host and guest shrug and say, Well, we're stuck. I say, this shows why our legal system *does* need the capacity to railroad defendants -- not easily, Glod forbid, but when it really, really matters -- the state needs to be able to put a case before a judge who knows and accepts that his job is to deliver a swift and guilty verdict. Yes, a political show trial.

Dean Shomshak

Yeah, the tactic to abuse the system has been clear.

But if the state has a means to effect such a trial...imagine what would be going on with the current House Republican clown show.  Imagine what *Trump* would've done with it.

The problem is the partisanship that's corrupted the judicial system.  Several aspects could've been sped up with, say, the Supreme Court quickly and summarily rejecting the appeals.  Another aspect would be to review judicial assignments...Cannon's shown that she's biased in Trump's favor, and she shouldn't be hearing any cases involving him.  But the deepest root is that any government is composed of people.  When they fail the people of the country, the only means to address it is through the election process...and that has become so corrupt as to be almost meaningless.

Ouch.

Well, we know their pitching's problematic at best.  BAD right now.  Team ERA?  6 teams sit between 4.99 and 5.09.  Then you drop to the Rockies at 6.57.  But they're middle of the pack in offense...no better.

Can't blame the fans.  2 years where they got into the playoffs...to be dumped out quickly.  Other than that...11 seasons where they finished 16+ games out of the division, and the bad nosedive the last 3 years (74, 68, 59)...and headed for what darn sure looks like the 4th straight season in this freefall.  Yeah, OK, the D'backs last year had a horrible stretch, and came back...and they have some decent prospects in their minor league system, but the ceiling for them is tied to their pitching.  

This might be the 2nd worst club moving forward...I put the A's at #1 since they're a wet mess.  Marlins...not great management either, but lots of injuries, IIRC.  White Sox have prospects.  Houston...I think they're mostly feeling the effect of having won for so long.  They may need a complete teardown and rebuild, but they've shown they can...Rockies haven't.