ScottishFox

There's the US public education system for you. They want you just smart enough to handle a factory job (Thanks, Prussia!) but not smart enough to critically think.

Well, according to what we knew back then. Recently released study from Penn State suggests that the infection was already more than 80x more widely spread than we thought in March. https://news.psu.edu/story/623797/2020/06/22/research/initial-covid-19-infection-rate-may-be-80-times-greater-originally Remarkably, the size of the observed surge of excess ILI corresponds to more than 8.7 million new cases during the last three weeks of March, compared to the roughly 100,000 cases that were officially reported during the same time period. Now, a new study from Penn State estimates that the number of early COVID-19 cases in the U.S. may have been more than 80 times greater and doubled nearly twice as fast as originally believed. If you click through to the study I warn you it is brutally technical and does about 14d6 statistical damage. One of their big takeaways is that the disease is less lethal than originally thought, but also much more contagious. The large death numbers are based on extremely high spread of the illness and not an unusual level of lethality. Not that this especially matters if you're one of the very sick ones. Some of the states that had lower infection rates are going to get a BIG surge (Texas, Florida, etc.). Ye Olde FoxTech Texas Monitor shows: Deaths in our area ticked up to 3.9 per 100,000. Still a very low rate. Texas at 2300 deaths and rising. We'll see how that looks in 10 days after all the new cases have enough time for people to get violently ill or not.

I think one issue that might come up for the NY quarantine is that they are making exemptions for their sports teams. Players from the Mets and Yankees who have been in Florida but are coming back to New York for an abbreviated and late spring training will not be required to quarantine, Mr. Cuomo said. The state had been working on separate “health protocols” with them since last week, he said. - NY Times.

I would hope the solution is less racial profiling and not telling people of color - who are dying at much higher rates - that they can skip the mask and spread the illness faster in their own communities. This just seems like a terrible solution.

It's like we're intentionally trying to fail to contain this thing. https://nypost.com/2020/06/23/oregon-county-issues-face-mask-order-exempting-non-white-people/

On the plus side theater ticket sales are up and work hours have doubled. 😶 New Cases are soaring - just like you said: Still under 4 deaths per 100,000 where I'm at. The fatality rate continues to drop which tells me the expanded testing is catching more and more people who are not critically ill. So far it's 1/2 of what it used to be (about 1.5% now compared to 3+ percent previously). The local CVS has a testing line that is so long that my wife won't go inside the store anymore. Mask discipline from what I see when I'm out and about is incredibly bad. People leaving their nose out or wearing them on their chin after dealing with the slow suffocation for a few hours. It's not looking great. Our Rt is now clocking in at: 1.18. Which is bad, though not as bad as Hawaii which is now up to 1.57 (yikes!).

Man, this story just keeps getting sadder. I'm gutted for the kids. Rayshard Brooks girlfriend (not his wife) arrested for the arson of the Wendy's. She turned herself in after an arrest warrant was issued. https://nypost.com/2020/06/23/accused-wendys-arsonist-natalie-white-was-rayshard-brooks-girlfriend-lawyer/

It's also possible given his metabolism that he'd go from exposed to infected to recovered in like 2.5 minutes.

We're in complete agreement on their deficit in empty handed skills. I'm always surprised when police officers aren't gym regulars with a reasonable level of grappling skill. In a profession where you're very likely to get into fights and your objective is to take suspects into custody while inflicting the minimal damage possible - grappling skills are very important. And they could have used one of these:

I agree with you there. One core value of (or at least it's supposed to be) is that all lives are of equal value. Our justice system needs to operate under this principle. And I think we're all painfully aware that the system works differently for different classes of individuals (high ranking politicians and wealthy celebrities vs. John Q. Public). My point, perhaps insufficiently articulated, was that his criminal past would have been looked up by the police during the stop and may have affected their decision making in whether or not its safe to let him flee.

One of the videos I linked early suggested there were three or more forcible felonies in the scuffle with the police. He punches one cop in the face, causes another to fall on his head and get concussed, steals a taser by force (which the analyst said was a felony) and then fired it at the cop when he was fleeing. I would think the fleeing felon doctrine would apply. I think you make a good point if the officer knew for sure the taser had been fired twice and was now incapable of incapacitation. However, that same cop had just been punched in the face and involved in a pretty rough grounds scuffle. That's a pretty rough standard to hold someone to that they have to be able to count shots in the middle of a melee.

I believe one of the videos I posted earlier clocks it at roughly 1.1 to 1.2 seconds after the taser shot which is right on the threshold of the react-act gap where you start an action and haven't responded to new information yet. There are some factors in there such as he had just gotten punched in the face which can definitely affect your reaction time / thinking for a minute if it's a solid connection. The other factor is we don't know if the cop was aware - in the heat of battle - whether that taser had been fired twice or only once and was still an active threat. Losing track of how many shots you have left or the suspect has left in the midst of a fight like that is incredibly easy. And I couldn't agree with you more on a couple of points: 1- Let's let a jury decide whether or not the officer's conduct was justifiable or reckless and unnecessary. - 100% agree. Due process would be nice these days instead of trial by public outrage. 2- America's criminal justice system is a disgusting death spiral. Once time and probation are served I feel like the criminal record should be hidden from anyone but the police. It should not stop you from getting a job for the rest of your life virtually forcing you to commit crime to survive. I think cases like this distract from the very notable ones like George Floyd's where you have about 99% agreement from the public on the fact that it was definitely in the murder to manslaughter range. Get momentum on cases like that and keep pushing for police reform. The whole system could use a big overhaul. I'm a big fan of the Norwegian system.

It is relevant if the officers are aware of the record (and they likely were) and have to evaluate the threat to the family if the violent Rayshard Brooks escapes the scene and might be headed home (then or later) in a dangerous state of mind. Unlike self-defenders police have to consider the threat to the community as well when making their shoot / don't shoot decisions. As I've previously mentioned these factors lead to an unarmed fleeing suspect (white guy in this case) getting shot in the back as he fled a murder scene. The police were about to lose him in the chase and shot him in the back as they feared he represented a danger to the public. And fair enough. I might have overreacted to the characterization that cops go around shooting sleeping black citizens in the back which was complete garbage.

So the resisting arrest and multiple forcible felonies (striking one cop, dropping the other cop on his head and giving him a concussion, taking the taser by force, firing it at an officer while fleeing the scene) weren't a contributing factor? If they have footage of him actually kicking the guy I'll believe it otherwise it's more likely to be him using his feet to turn Brooks over so that they can keep their hands on their weapons. Also, there's video footage of the officer trying to keep the guy alive after getting first aid gear from his squad car. The footage and headline below don't seem consistent with someone so murderous they are kicking a dying man for no reason. The daily mail article had some bits I hadn't seen before such as Rolfe almost letting the guy go, but he drove over the curb of the parking spot when asked to pull over and fell asleep again AFTER the police were interacting with him. It's a terrible situation, but he didn't die for the crime of being asleep in a stationary vehicle. He died for falling asleep in a vehicle in a Wendy's drive through and then giving 1 cop a concussion, punching the other and then firing a taser as he was fleeing the scene. Your post grossly mis-characterizes this scenario. You'll notice they didn't tap on the window and then open fire after it looked like he was asleep. His criminal record is non-trivial as well: False Imprisonment, Simple Battery/Family, Battery Simple and Felony Cruelty/Cruelty to Children. He was the kind of fun loving person that beats his wife and kids and won't let them escape the house. EXCLUSIVE: 'Mr. Brooks keep breathing. Keep breathing for me.' Fired officer who shot Rayshard Brooks dead begged the father-of-four to stay alive as he desperately administered CPR, bodycam footage reveals Video footage below here: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8429013/Fired-officer-shot-Rayshard-Brooks-dead-begged-father-four-stay-alive-gave-CPR.html Cops are making split second combat decisions and holding them to a standard of perfection will simply result in mass police departures, chaos and death. Look at NY after they got rid of their plain clothes anti-crime unit. Shootings and deaths are massively up. The Chaz/Chop zone has had multiple shootings already and at least 1 fatality. They won't let cops in, but are shocked when paramedics won't risk their lives to enter a lawless no-man's land to assist. Minneapolis is also doing real swell. I pretty much share the sentiment from this gentleman below.

I just leave my mask and my daughter's mask in the car between cleanings. Otherwise we forget them too often.

Texas cases are SOARING the last 3-4 days. Only place I see masks now are hospitals and restaurants. All the customers are walking around without a care in the world. When the workers at the corner grocery/gas station quit wearing them I was concerned. I interact with 1-2 non-family members a day while I work from home, but these guys interact with hundreds per shift. Put a mask on!

Man, as someone who has done years of that training I cannot agree more. If your job is police officer you have to maintain a higher level of fitness and empty hand skills than the general public. These two men got their asses kicked badly by an unarmed drunkard. He wasn't on PCP or something. He was drunk and didn't want to go to jail. A moderate level of skill in a grappling art (bjj, wrestling, etc.) would have been more than sufficient to control the subject and prevent this lethal outcome. It's also why I completely disagree with a ban on chokes. The problem isn't chokes. I've choked out lots of people. In years of classes I've never even heard of someone getting killed much less seen a fatality. Properly applied a choke does no lasting damage and completely subdues the choke-ee. Handcuffing becomes a snap and you don't have to taser, bludgeon with a baton, pepper spray or otherwise try to get pain compliance from someone who is in fight or flight mode. Most of those tools work about 50% of the time. You have to be a complete incompetent to injure someone with a choke hold. At which point it's not the maneuver it's someone who's too untrained or too volatile to do the job. If you can't trust them to do a choke hold then you can't trust them to have a firearm. I still can't believe the officer's step-mother was sacked for creating a "hostile work place" by way of being related to Officer Rolfe. Public backlash has been pretty spicy.

According to this video analysis I just watched on Active Self Protection (start around 9 minutes if you've seen the initial footage and are already familiar with the scenario for the analysis) the cop is basically required to arrest the guy per department rules and could get fired for not arresting him. Also, the commission of several forcible felonies by Rayshard in his attempt to escape justify the use of lethal force - especially at the point the taser is fired at the police. He also links the relevant Georgia legal statute and a bunch of related news articles. It's a pretty solid review. Also, turns out the DA is being pretty duplicitous as a couple of weeks prior claiming tasers are deadly weapons (even showing relevant slides), but in this case said they're not deadly weapons and filed charges before the Georgia Bureau of Investigations had sent in their findings which is rare enough that another law enforcement officer of 30+ years said he'd never seen that happen before. Feels like he might have intentionally rushed the gun and overcharged to simultaneously soothe the angry masses and guarantee that none of the charges stick. Also, the DA had a slide in his presentation of the picture below from June 2, 2020. I've skipped the link to the video as the commentary is pretty disgusting. Georgia law regulates tasers as firearms.

Actual conservatives are actually loving this.

Great post man. Simply great.

The Texas numbers have really spiked up the last few days. We're currently at 6.9% of the number of deaths of New York and about 63% of a bad flu year (which I think we'll pass at some point). The area I live in is still under 4 deaths per 100,000.

Man, you can see that here in America. Multiple Asian groups and Ashkenazi Jews stomp white America in terms of education, lifetime earnings and have much lower rates of criminality. You don't need homogeneous anything. As an example - Asian females are 65x less likely to be shot by police - on a per capita basis - than white men.

There are models of taser that (X2 and X3) that have 2 or 3 shots respectively. To be fair - I have no idea how many shots were available in the tasers being used in the shooting. From what I saw: The cops transition to arrest VERY abruptly and do not give the guy the chance to mentally process that he's about to be arrested. Also, he was on probation so this was likely to result in an extended jail/prison stay combined with being drunk - he probably panicked decided to fight and flee rather than go back to prison. Which - I think would have worked had he not fired the taser at the cop. Edit: Turns out those were two-shot tasers - but that was the 2nd shot, so it was not dangerous from that point.

Meanwhile in Texas we're up to about 2,000 cases per day. Our Rt is at 1.02 which means it will continue to spread for an extended period of time - though it may be slow enough to avoid flooding the hospitals. The county we're in is still under 4 deaths per 100,000 so that's pretty good. The slow, but higher than 1.0 Rt makes me think this thing is going to linger around for months and months. Total deaths for Texas is an Orwellian 1,984.

That is definitely the ultra-high risk category. Best of luck, Badger.