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A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV


Guest Black Lotus

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Guest Black Lotus

The following information is based on this formula: (#- Needed to Hit Target) / (18 [e.g., Max. # Rollable on 3d6]. For example, if your OCV is 5 and the opponent's DCV is 3, (5 - 3) = +2, and ((11-) + 2) = 13-, which you'll need to roll equal or lower than to hit your target. In this case, (13 / 18) = 72%, your percentile chance to hit the target.

 

The first figure given in the list is the OCV - DCV + All Modifiers; the second number is the percentage chance to hit the target.

 

  • +7 .......... 94% (18 is always a fail)
  • +6 .......... 94%
  • +5 .......... 89%
  • +4 .......... 83%
  • +3 .......... 78%
  • +2 .......... 72%
  • +1 .......... 67%
  • +0 .......... 61%
  • -1 ........... 56%
  • -2 ........... 50%
  • -3 ........... 44%
  • -4 ........... 39%
  • -5 ........... 33%
  • -6 ........... 28%
  • -7 ........... 22%
  • -8 ........... 17% (Always Hits; always a 17% chance to succeed at any attack)

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Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV

 

isn't this just a chart of the likelyhood of rolling any given number on 3d6?

Indeed, and you cannot simply divide by 18, as the distribution is not flat. The chart should be (to the nearest 0.5%):

 

OCV-DCV+Mods  Hit Prob (%)
------------  -----------
+6 and up     99.5%
+5            98.0%
+4            95.5%
+3            90.5%
+2            84.0%
+1            74.0%
0            62.5%
-1            50.0%
-2            37.5%
-3            26.0%
-4            16.0%
-5             9.5%
-6             4.5%
-7             2.0%
-8 and down    0.5%

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Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV

 

Indeed, and you cannot simply divide by 18, as the distribution is not flat. The chart should be (to the nearest 0.5%):

 

OCV-DCV+Mods  Hit Prob (%)
------------  -----------
+6 and up     99.5%
+5            98.0%
+4            95.5%
+3            90.5%
+2            84.0%
+1            74.0%
0            62.5%
-1            50.0%
-2            37.5%
-3            26.0%
-4            16.0%
-5             9.5%
-6             4.5%
-7             2.0%
-8 and down    0.5%

 

I always thought that 11 was a strange number to set the standard in HERO because of that 62.5% chance - it would be far better for it to be 10 - a straight 50-50 chance.

 

Its always good to see it written down - makes you appreciate that the 8- is a 1 in 4 chance and the 14 or less that you get a -1/2 limitation on a power still allows it to work more than 90% of the time...

 

 

Doc

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Guest Black Lotus

Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV

 

You all are correct, sorry for the discrepancy. To compensate, I calculated all possible combinations of the dice -- there are (6 x 6 x 6) = 216 combinations total -- and discovered the frequency with which different combinations of numbers appear on all possible combinations of the dice (for example, only 1 and 1 and 1 make 3, but 4 and 2 and 1 make 7, 3 and 3 and 1 make 7, etcetera, so it occurs more frequently):

 

3: Occurs 1 time, 0.46% chance.

4: Occurs 3 times, 1.39% chance.

5: Occurs 6 times, 2.78% chance.

6: Occurs 10 times, 4.63% chance.

7: Occurs 15 times, 6.94% chance

8: Occurs 21 times, 9.72% chance.

9: Occurs 25 times, 11.57% chance.

10: Occurs 27 times, 12.50% chance.

11: Occurs 27 times, 12.50% chance.

12: Occurs 25 times, 11.57% chance.

13: Occurs 21 times, 9.72% chance.

14: Occurs 15 times, 6.94% chance.

15: Occurs 10 times, 4.63% chance.

16: Occurs 6 times, 2.78% chance.

17: Occurs 3 times, 1.39% chance.

18: Occurs 1 time, 0.46% chance.

 

With this data, I can make a new and perfectly accurate chart. Sorry for the mistake earlier.

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