Guest Black Lotus Posted August 8, 2005 Report Share Posted August 8, 2005 The following information is based on this formula: (#- Needed to Hit Target) / (18 [e.g., Max. # Rollable on 3d6]. For example, if your OCV is 5 and the opponent's DCV is 3, (5 - 3) = +2, and ((11-) + 2) = 13-, which you'll need to roll equal or lower than to hit your target. In this case, (13 / 18) = 72%, your percentile chance to hit the target. The first figure given in the list is the OCV - DCV + All Modifiers; the second number is the percentage chance to hit the target. +7 .......... 94% (18 is always a fail) +6 .......... 94% +5 .......... 89% +4 .......... 83% +3 .......... 78% +2 .......... 72% +1 .......... 67% +0 .......... 61% -1 ........... 56% -2 ........... 50% -3 ........... 44% -4 ........... 39% -5 ........... 33% -6 ........... 28% -7 ........... 22% -8 ........... 17% (Always Hits; always a 17% chance to succeed at any attack) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fox1 Posted August 8, 2005 Report Share Posted August 8, 2005 Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV I think it's off. 18 isn't a 6% chance, it's 1 in 216, as is a three. Didn't check the other numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy_The_Ruthles Posted August 8, 2005 Report Share Posted August 8, 2005 Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV isn't this just a chart of the likelyhood of rolling any given number on 3d6? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prestidigitator Posted August 8, 2005 Report Share Posted August 8, 2005 Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV isn't this just a chart of the likelyhood of rolling any given number on 3d6? Indeed, and you cannot simply divide by 18, as the distribution is not flat. The chart should be (to the nearest 0.5%): OCV-DCV+Mods Hit Prob (%) ------------ ----------- +6 and up 99.5% +5 98.0% +4 95.5% +3 90.5% +2 84.0% +1 74.0% 0 62.5% -1 50.0% -2 37.5% -3 26.0% -4 16.0% -5 9.5% -6 4.5% -7 2.0% -8 and down 0.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CourtFool Posted August 8, 2005 Report Share Posted August 8, 2005 Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV Ooooo! Are we doing Percentile Hero now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prestidigitator Posted August 8, 2005 Report Share Posted August 8, 2005 Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV Ooooo! Are we doing Percentile Hero now? No. Shut up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Democracy Posted August 8, 2005 Report Share Posted August 8, 2005 Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV Indeed, and you cannot simply divide by 18, as the distribution is not flat. The chart should be (to the nearest 0.5%): OCV-DCV+Mods Hit Prob (%) ------------ ----------- +6 and up 99.5% +5 98.0% +4 95.5% +3 90.5% +2 84.0% +1 74.0% 0 62.5% -1 50.0% -2 37.5% -3 26.0% -4 16.0% -5 9.5% -6 4.5% -7 2.0% -8 and down 0.5% I always thought that 11 was a strange number to set the standard in HERO because of that 62.5% chance - it would be far better for it to be 10 - a straight 50-50 chance. Its always good to see it written down - makes you appreciate that the 8- is a 1 in 4 chance and the 14 or less that you get a -1/2 limitation on a power still allows it to work more than 90% of the time... Doc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Black Lotus Posted August 8, 2005 Report Share Posted August 8, 2005 Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV You all are correct, sorry for the discrepancy. To compensate, I calculated all possible combinations of the dice -- there are (6 x 6 x 6) = 216 combinations total -- and discovered the frequency with which different combinations of numbers appear on all possible combinations of the dice (for example, only 1 and 1 and 1 make 3, but 4 and 2 and 1 make 7, 3 and 3 and 1 make 7, etcetera, so it occurs more frequently): 3: Occurs 1 time, 0.46% chance. 4: Occurs 3 times, 1.39% chance. 5: Occurs 6 times, 2.78% chance. 6: Occurs 10 times, 4.63% chance. 7: Occurs 15 times, 6.94% chance 8: Occurs 21 times, 9.72% chance. 9: Occurs 25 times, 11.57% chance. 10: Occurs 27 times, 12.50% chance. 11: Occurs 27 times, 12.50% chance. 12: Occurs 25 times, 11.57% chance. 13: Occurs 21 times, 9.72% chance. 14: Occurs 15 times, 6.94% chance. 15: Occurs 10 times, 4.63% chance. 16: Occurs 6 times, 2.78% chance. 17: Occurs 3 times, 1.39% chance. 18: Occurs 1 time, 0.46% chance. With this data, I can make a new and perfectly accurate chart. Sorry for the mistake earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onyxclaw Posted August 8, 2005 Report Share Posted August 8, 2005 Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV that information can also be found......here! http://www.ogmiosproject.org/articles/3d6results.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Black Lotus Posted August 9, 2005 Report Share Posted August 9, 2005 Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV that information can also be found......here! http://www.ogmiosproject.org/articles/3d6results.html Yeah. Well, I may have reinvented the wheel, but there it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onyxclaw Posted August 9, 2005 Report Share Posted August 9, 2005 Re: A Percentile Analysis of Relative OCV Yeah. Well' date=' I may have reinvented the wheel, but there it is.[/quote'] thas ok ^^ I'm gald you did actually. It proves to me the numbers I had been using were good. I'm too lazy to check them myself. So thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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