Population Of Island Three Colonies

[Vondy]

I've been able to find the projected populations for bernal spheres (Island One Colonies), and Stanford Rings (Island Two Colonies), but haven't been able to track down estimated populations for O'Niel Cylinders (Island Three Colonies). Does anyone have a source for this, or know what the estimated population is?

[Edsel]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

According to this website the colony would support an autonomous population of between 3 and 10 million. Pretty broad range. I am still using my google-fu to see what else I can dig up.

 

EDIT: Here is another site with some information. It agrees 3-10 million but also states a possibility of "10s of millions."

O’Neill was very detailed in his descriptions of the Island One and Island Two configurations, which he was trying to persuade the U.S. Congress to try and build, but much less so for Island Three, which he held out as the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. In most instances, he merely referred to “populations in the millions” but on at least one occasion he stated: “Island Three … could support quite easily a population of ten million people.”

 

EDIT2: Here is one more source that states a population of about 10 million.

[Clonus]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

According to this website the colony would support an autonomous population of between 3 and 10 million. Pretty broad range. I am still using my google-fu to see what else I can dig up.

.

 

Yeeeah. I'm wondering how they could accomodate the necessary space vessel traffic for a population that large.

[Vondy]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Yeeeah. I'm wondering how they could accomodate the necessary space vessel traffic for a population that large.

 

It would depend how many of them actually commuted off the colony for work. Odds are such colonies would be built around various industries or activities that would decrease the need for large scale commutes. At a population that size your probably talking about an economic center in of itself (as well as one designed for self-sufficiency). New York has a population at the upper end of that range in terms of residents, with a significant increase in day-time population due to commuters (most people don't leave new york for work). If the station is a production center, financial center, or whatnot then the only real need for people commuting between stations would be for "orbital tourism," or much less frequent transfer of specialists, business negotiatiors and the like. And, since economies are based on supply and demand, the amount of shuttle traffic will determine how competitive the prices are for inter-colony transport. I know people who have lived in large cities their whole lives and have never left. Another possibility, of course, is that an entire end of thecolony serves as a flight center (a three kilometer diameter area), which would, in the absense of the need for runways, make for a major "international airport." A colony this size (as much as 3KM across and 20KM long) is akin to major international cities in its own right.

[Clonus]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

It would depend how many of them actually commuted off the colony for work. Odds are such colonies would be built around various industries or activities that would decrease the need for large scale commutes. At a population that size your probably talking about an economic center in of itself (as well as one designed for self-sufficiency). New York has a population at the upper end of that range in terms of residents' date=' with a significant increase in day-time population due to commuters (most people don't leave new york for work). If the station is a production center, financial center, or whatnot then the only real need for people commuting between stations would be for "orbital tourism," or much less frequent transfer of specialists, business negotiatiors and the like. And, since economies are based on supply and demand, the amount of shuttle traffic will determine how competitive the prices are for inter-colony transport. I know people who have lived in large cities their whole lives and have never left. Another possibility, of course, is that an entire end of thecolony serves as a flight center (a three kilometer diameter area), which would, in the absense of the need for runways, make for a major "international airport." A colony this size (as much as 3KM across and 20KM long) is akin to major international cities in its own right.[/quote']

 

It's not just people. A community of three million people needs to import a lot of material goods. But the only place incoming ships can dock is at the axis which means a maximum of two ships at a time.

[McCoy]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

It's not just people. A community of three million people needs to import a lot of material goods.

Why if the habitat is self-sufficent foodwise?

 

It's But the only place incoming ships can dock is at the axis which means a maximum of two ships at a time.

Unless there is a counter-rotating docking ring.

[Vondy]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

It's not just people. A community of three million people needs to import a lot of material goods. But the only place incoming ships can dock is at the axis which means a maximum of two ships at a time.

 

The Island 3 design was intended to be self-sufficient in terms of food, and mostly sufficient in terms of water. With current advances it might well be possible for it to be fully sufficient in terms of water. A significant part of its design concept was a large number of "farming" stations attached to it. Additionally, at 3 million most of the three "non-window" strips would be unoccupied and could also be used for bio-mass and food stuffs; while the windows could be filled with water, which would solve some of the problems with them frosting over (a problem with the original design).

 

As for your claim that you could only dock at the axis, what is it based on? Space craft can match velocities, can't they? Why couldn't you have multiple vehicles dock with the cap, but bring things in through the axis? Or, even dock with the side of the station and bring things in through the axis?

[Clonus]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

The Island 3 design was intended to be self-sufficient in terms of food, and mostly sufficient in terms of water. With current advances it might well be possible for it to be fully sufficient in terms of water. A significant part of its design concept was a large number of "farming" stations attached to it. Additionally, at 3 million most of the three "non-window" strips would be unoccupied and could also be used for bio-mass and food stuffs; while the windows could be filled with water, which would solve some of the problems with them frosting over (a problem with the original design).

 

As for your claim that you could only dock at the axis, what is it based on? Space craft can match velocities, can't they? ?

 

Rotating surfaces are changing their velocity every moment, and the farther you are away from the axis the worse it gets. But he's right. A counter-rotating docking wheel would solve the problem.

[Doc]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Why if the habitat is self-sufficent foodwise?

 

 

Unless there is a counter-rotating docking ring.

 

The Island 3 design was intended to be self-sufficient in terms of food' date=' and mostly sufficient in terms of water. With current advances it might well be possible for it to be fully sufficient in terms of water. A significant part of its design concept was a large number of "farming" stations attached to it. Additionally, at 3 million most of the three "non-window" strips would be unoccupied and could also be used for bio-mass and food stuffs; while the windows could be filled with water, which would solve some of the problems with them frosting over (a problem with the original design). [/quote']

 

 

 

That doesn't solve the problem as such a colony would still have to import a lot of inorganic commodities and energy...

[McCoy]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

That doesn't solve the problem as such a colony would still have to import a lot of inorganic commodities and energy...

Solar panels for energy, what inorganic commodities?

[Clonus]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Solar panels for energy' date=' what inorganic commodities?[/quote']

 

Manufactured goods. It's unlikely that the colonies will be inhabited by space Amish. It's also unlikely that the power demands of the colony will fail to exceed what you could get by papering the entire colony in solar panels.

[Doc]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Manufactured goods. It's unlikely that the colonies will be inhabited by space Amish. It's also unlikely that the power demands of the colony will fail to exceed what you could get by papering the entire colony in solar panels.

 

 

Exactly. Even by letting aside a little of this gritty realism by supposing futurist solar panels could feed the station in energy, matter doesn't appears from nowhere. Even by pushing this farter again by supposing the colony is fully equiped with manufacturing chains and fully autonomous, it would still have to get minerals from somewhere before to process them.

 

But anyway, I'm not trying to crush your fun. This is just my second psychological limitation: can't resist debating over technical realism issues in fiction...

[Nyrath]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Exactly. Even by letting aside a little of this gritty realism by supposing futurist solar panels could feed the station in energy' date=' matter doesn't appears from nowhere. Even by pushing this farter again by supposing the colony is fully equiped with manufacturing chains and fully autonomous, it would still have to get minerals from somewhere before to process them..[/quote']

Ummm, I think you are forgetting that the original O'Neil L5 colony was to start by establishing a mining colony on Luna along with a mass driver to launch raw material to the "catcher" at the L5 point.

 

The entire L5 colony was to be constructed with Lunar materials, since it is insane to try shipping such vast amounts from the much deeper gravity well of Earth.

http://www.nss.org/settlement/ColoniesInSpace/colonies_chap06.html

http://www.nas.nasa.gov/About/Education/SpaceSettlement/75SummerStudy/Chapt5.html

 

Solar panels will suffice for power needs, since in the microgravity environment they can be arbitrarily huge. Nothing prevents them from being larger than the colony. They do not have to be physically attached to the colony, they can beam the power over with microwaves.

[McCoy]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Manufactured goods. It's unlikely that the colonies will be inhabited by space Amish.

But much more likely that things can be manufactured on board far less expensively than they can be shipped from anywhere else. If nano-tech proceeds at tthe current pace, won't be too long before anything needed on the colony, say, a new style of computer, can be "grown" molecule by molecule in a vat.

 

Failing that, send a "von Neuman Machine /clanking replicator" with the colony, along with instructions for making the tools to make the tools to make the tools for anything the inhabitants need.

 

Failing that, among three to ten million people you'll probably have a few good machinist.

[Nyrath]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

But much more likely that things can be manufactured on board far less expensively than they can be shipped from anywhere else. If nano-tech proceeds at tthe current pace' date=' won't be too long before anything needed on the colony, say, a new style of computer, can be "grown" molecule by molecule in a vat.[/quote']

Actually, there is no need to go that far. Right now even as we speak there are functional rapid prototyping rigs that can crank out most items (that do not include microelectronics). I cannot seem to find the link, but I remember reading an article about some branch of the military using rapid prototyping to refurbish old aircraft. The aircraft were so elderly that no replacement parts were available. The existing parts were laser-scanned and reproduced with RP.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_prototyping

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IBO/is_2_26/ai_94042653

[Clonus]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

But much more likely that things can be manufactured on board far less expensively than they can be shipped from anywhere else. .

 

Then you need raw materials, which are even more bulk intensive. It's a space colony, not a perpetual motion machine.

[McCoy]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Then you need raw materials' date=' [/quote']

or intensive recycling.

[Nyrath]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Then you need raw materials' date=' which are even more bulk intensive. It's a space colony, not a perpetual motion machine.[/quote']

 

The NASA page here:

http://www.nas.nasa.gov/About/Education/SpaceSettlement/75SummerStudy/Chapt5.html

estimates that constructing the space habitat will take in the neighborhood of ten million tons of materials.

 

I'm sure whatever method is used to ship ten million tons of raw material to the L5 construction site can manage to ship a thousand tons or so every few months for manufacturing consumer goods.

[Vondy]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Exactly. Even by letting aside a little of this gritty realism by supposing futurist solar panels could feed the station in energy, matter doesn't appears from nowhere. Even by pushing this farter again by supposing the colony is fully equiped with manufacturing chains and fully autonomous, it would still have to get minerals from somewhere before to process them.

 

But anyway, I'm not trying to crush your fun. This is just my second psychological limitation: can't resist debating over technical realism issues in fiction...

 

 

When I said "self sufficient" I meant agriculturally and energy self sufficient. Raw materials (such as ore) was to be provided via lunar mass drivers, or even earth orbital elevators. The station was intended to be a part of a larger economic reality (probably serving as a manufacturing, research, and residency habitat). As for solar power, the panels are designed to be equal in size to the three "solid" strips (which are mostly open spaces as opposed to wall to wall domiciles). A part of the design includes using the heat for the electric coils as well. Additionally, the station is big enough to have atmosphere, which allows for wind power internally, as well. It also needs to have the big "glass" panels filled with water (massive resevoirs), which serves to further insulate the station and keep the panes from frosting over. Since the station needs only a few degrees adjustment to always be correctly aligned to the sun you don't actually have to light the "open spaces" - it can always be day, or you can create your own cycles.

[Doc]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Ummm, I think you are forgetting that the original O'Neil L5 colony was to start by establishing a mining colony on Luna along with a mass driver to launch raw material to the "catcher" at the L5 point.

 

The entire L5 colony was to be constructed with Lunar materials, since it is insane to try shipping such vast amounts from the much deeper gravity well of Earth.

http://www.nss.org/settlement/ColoniesInSpace/colonies_chap06.html

http://www.nas.nasa.gov/About/Education/SpaceSettlement/75SummerStudy/Chapt5.html

 

Solar panels will suffice for power needs, since in the microgravity environment they can be arbitrarily huge. Nothing prevents them from being larger than the colony. They do not have to be physically attached to the colony, they can beam the power over with microwaves.

 

The NASA page here:

http://www.nas.nasa.gov/About/Education/SpaceSettlement/75SummerStudy/Chapt5.html

estimates that constructing the space habitat will take in the neighborhood of ten million tons of materials.

 

I'm sure whatever method is used to ship ten million tons of raw material to the L5 construction site can manage to ship a thousand tons or so every few months for manufacturing consumer goods.

 

When I said "self sufficient" I meant agriculturally and energy self sufficient. Raw materials (such as ore) was to be provided via lunar mass drivers' date=' or even earth orbital elevators. The station was intended to be a part of a larger economic reality (probably serving as a manufacturing, research, and residency habitat). As for solar power, the panels are designed to be equal in size to the three "solid" strips (which are mostly open spaces as opposed to wall to wall domiciles). A part of the design includes using the heat for the electric coils as well. Additionally, the station is big enough to have atmosphere, which allows for wind power internally, as well. It also needs to have the big "glass" panels filled with water (massive resevoirs), which serves to further insulate the station and keep the panes from frosting over. Since the station needs only a few degrees adjustment to always be correctly aligned to the sun you don't actually have to light the "open spaces" - it can always be day, or you can create your own cycles.[/quote']

 

 

Unless I misunderstand what's going on here, the discussion was about the docking capacity and capacity needed for such a space colony to avoid shortages of any sort. Am I wrong on this?

 

Anyway, if not, even though ore are brought by mass drivers doesn't mean they needn't to get inside by the tip of the axis, unless there are othere payloads or entrance on the side of the station leading directly to the manufacturing chain. Is there enough docking capacity for all those materials? That's the question.

 

Anyway, I'm not sure I'm being clear about what I mean; my english speaking (witing) skill seems to lose in potency when I'm tired...

[AmadanNaBriona]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

When I said "self sufficient" I meant agriculturally and energy self sufficient. Raw materials (such as ore) was to be provided via lunar mass drivers' date=' or even earth orbital elevators. The station was intended to be a part of a larger economic reality (probably serving as a manufacturing, research, and residency habitat). As for solar power, the panels are designed to be equal in size to the three "solid" strips (which are mostly open spaces as opposed to wall to wall domiciles). A part of the design includes using the heat for the electric coils as well. Additionally, the station is big enough to have atmosphere, which allows for wind power internally, as well. It also needs to have the big "glass" panels filled with water (massive resevoirs), which serves to further insulate the station and keep the panes from frosting over. Since the station needs only a few degrees adjustment to always be correctly aligned to the sun you don't actually have to light the "open spaces" - it can always be day, or you can create your own cycles.[/quote']

 

One of the linked sites mentioned also employing essentially "geothermal" production (exothermal?), using the inevitable temperature differential to generate power as well.

[McCoy]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Unless I misunderstand what's going on here' date=' the discussion was about the docking capacity and capacity needed for such a space colony to avoid shortages of any sort. Am I wrong on this?[/quote']

I'd say it's about Colonus seeming to think that an O'Neil colony with a population of three to ten million will have the same volume of imports as a twenty-first century American city of the same population.

 

Anyway' date=' if not, even though ore are brought by mass drivers doesn't mean they needn't to get inside by the tip of the axis, unless there are othere payloads or entrance on the side of the station leading directly to the manufacturing chain. Is there enough docking capacity for all those materials? That's the question. [/quote']

Yes, everything needs to be brought in through the axis. But if you put a non-rotating "docking wheel" on each end cargo can be brought along the "spokes" of the wheel to the axis at the "hub." If needed, there can be multiple docking wheels at both ends of the habitat. The axis does represent a choke point, no more so than the Holland Tunnel or Brooklyn Bridge.

[Nyrath]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Yes' date=' everything needs to be brought in through the axis. But if you put a non-rotating "docking wheel" on each end cargo can be brought along the "spokes" of the wheel to the axis at the "hub." If needed, there can be multiple docking wheels at both ends of the habitat. The axis does represent a choke point, no more so than the Holland Tunnel or Brooklyn Bridge.[/quote']

Yes.

 

Look at this image:

http://bp2.blogger.com/_o__RkrZJzzA/RoPRTkHDvYI/AAAAAAAAAKQ/agnvpr5qqhI/s1600-h/oneillexterior-800[1].jpg

 

See the big ring, with the beads-on-a-string? Those beads are factories. As it turns out, for many applications, it is preferable to manufacture items in microgravity.

 

Later, the products can be transported along the spokes to the hub.

[AmadanNaBriona]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Yes.

 

Look at this image:

http://bp2.blogger.com/_o__RkrZJzzA/RoPRTkHDvYI/AAAAAAAAAKQ/agnvpr5qqhI/s1600-h/oneillexterior-800[1].jpg

 

See the big ring, with the beads-on-a-string? Those beads are factories. As it turns out, for many applications, it is preferable to manufacture items in microgravity.

 

Later, the products can be transported along the spokes to the hub.

 

not to dispute your wisdom, oh mighty nearly wise one, but I thought the "beads" are intended for hydroponics so as to allow the entire internal space to be taken up as "living space"?

[McCoy]

Re: Population Of Island Three Colonies

 

Yes.

 

Look at this image:

http://bp2.blogger.com/_o__RkrZJzzA/RoPRTkHDvYI/AAAAAAAAAKQ/agnvpr5qqhI/s1600-h/oneillexterior-800[1].jpg

 

See the big ring, with the beads-on-a-string? Those beads are factories. As it turns out, for many applications, it is preferable to manufacture items in microgravity.

 

Later, the products can be transported along the spokes to the hub.

 

not to dispute your wisdom' date=' oh mighty nearly wise one, but I thought the "beads" are intended for hydroponics so as to allow the entire internal space to be taken up as "living space"?[/quote']

Putting your hydroponics outside your radiation shielding falls under the classification of "Not a good idea."