薔薇語

I think some people throw out the "Fermi paradox" without fully appreciating that it is a Paradox. The basic idea was that after you input any reasonable figures into equation you would get some value. But because the universe is infinite and extremely old, we must assume that if any life could be created, nigh infinite amounts of life should have been created. And even if we assume nine out of ten are Federation like groups that avoid absolutely all contact with "lower" species, that other 10% would still amount to a nigh infinite number of civilizations. Thus as long as the creation of life is not impossible, there should be abundant evidence for it. Well, we know that life is possible yet have no proof of other life. That is the paradox. Every step along the way is perfectly reasonable yet it spits out an unacceptable answer. So, what are we missing? What piece of data about the universe and life in it is eluding us? Why are we still alone to our knowledge? Something just isn't making sense. Maybe, just maybe, as CGPGrey once put it: maybe there is something out there that doesn't take too kindly to developed civilizations - something that might not take too well to us broadcasting our presence. Soar.

There has been a fair bit of talk about the Demographic breakdowns this election cycle. To figure out what was actually happening, I went through the CNN and Wikipedia demographics breakdown for the most recent four elections. Voter Demo Over 4 Elections I published it as a downloadable PDF file. Soar. Now that I have had time to think and ponder the data, here are my thoughts (pulled from my FB): Now that I have made the Demographics breakdown, It is far easier for me to assess some of the ideas floating around in regards to President Elect Trump's win. Re: White people This cycle, as opposed to 2004 (77%) and 2008 (72%) were a smaller block at just 70% of the total vote. The Republican pull on white people in general was the same this year as 2012 and 2004 (58%). The Democratic pull on White People, though, was smaller at just 37% this year to 39% last time and 43% in 08 and 41% in 04. This year, more than any other year by a long shot saw a massive increase in 3rd party voting by whites. Re: White men Other than 2008, white men have been very consistently voting for Rep at a uniform 62-63%. In 2008 there was a big dip of 8%. Pres. Obama drew in a LOT (8%!) of white male voters then. Secretary Clinton drew in the absolute fewest white men (31%). But it wasn't because they went for Trump; the broke for third party. Re: White Women White women have stayed consistent all four cycles. 53-55% for Republicans and 44-46% for dems. This year was a low year and saw a modest rise in Third Party candidates. Re: Urban vs Rural. Rural voters have drop quite a bit as a voting block. 25% in 04 to 17% this year. This time they had a very similar Republican break as in 2012. It might be too simplistic to say it has become more Republican but perhaps just less Democratic. This year there was 62% for Trump vs 60% last time and that is up a lot from 53% in 2008. But on whole this block has seen a decline in Dem support and slight and comparable increase in third party. Urban and Suburban voters saw very little change from 08 to today. Those populations became FAR less Republican compared to their 04 counterparts and grew almost equally FAR more democratic. But not perfectly! They saw a giant leap in third party support this time (6 and 5% respectively). Re: No Black vote / No Latino vote Nope. Just nope. The black vote was the same portion of the electorate as it has always been (11-13%). They, however INCREASED in voting for a Republican this year (8% compared to 4% in 08). And also increased in third party support a bit. They also went back to their 04 support of Democrats at 88% compared to the 95% of 04. Latinos also had similar voting trends for the last three cycles. What is unique about 04 compared to the last three is that President Bush got a TON of the Latino vote (44% compared to P.E. Trump's 29%). So, what does all this mean? Ultimately there were some natural quirks here and there with subtle changes but no group really changed their party support TO President Elect Trump. Rather the opposite: people rejected Secretary Clinton on most every demographic she lost compared to President Obama and Secretary Kerry. Secretary Clinton LOST this election - President Elect Trump did NOT win it.

I don't think that story says what you think it says. Nor do I think it says what the author hoped it would say. As a good ol' Missourian, I think I know some good ol' yellow journalism when I sees it. And I sees it. If we are to trust the FBI, there has been no connection between the Trump campaign and the Russian government. The mere fact that some people in power have had contact with other people of power in other nations is not new nor news worthy. And given some of the urging to put ourselves (the US) into other people's elections by members here, perhaps we don't have much room to criticize Russians for having a dog in this fight. Soar.

Jeez. Again, people really need to take a chill pill. One election does not equate to the end of the freaking world! And since we are all about issues of voter suppression through intimidation: imagine what it is like to be a Republican leaning person in Oregon now. Everyone needs to come together and condemn this mayhem. Not because of some idiotic notion that Secretary Clinton, President Elect Trump, President Obama, nor most media elites are responsible for its creation, but because we are ALL responsible for the smooth transition of power. Soar.

We have created an environment where some people feel extremely entitled to be absolute jerks. This comes in a variety of forms. Some people are racist & some people are race-baiting liars. http://nyti.ms/2eFyfIk But regardless of what this person has done, they are not the problem of secretary Clinton, nor are the others Pres. Elect Trump's. Seriously, people need to chill out. I am not a weed person but perhaps everyone should take a week off and smoke till they can't remember their own name. Soar.

Yeah, Texas v White essentially said unilateral secession by a state is not allowed. It didn't clarify if that meant Congress could do it unilaterally nor if it could be a bilateral choice. Just that unilateral state level secession is not possible. I still think the decision was a bad one but also think secession is stupid. Soar.

Something that has surprised me (and I do mean actually surprised me) is that the US econ and the USD haven't really suffered. I was expecting a Brexit like plunge following the announcement. Sure enough there was s dip but it recovered quite quickly. I just checked the Yen:USD exchange rate a moment ago and the USD has gotten even stronger since the election. This is actually bad news for me. I earn my salary in Yen (obviously) but send money back home all the time to pay off student loans. I was hoping for a 90-95 yen to the dollar rate for tomorrow since that is when I am sending my next installment of cash. Instead, it has gone from 104ish to 106ish this week. I have also checked the Dow Jones and it seems to be rather steady without any major swings. So on whole it seems the markets are able to hold back real shock. Soar.

If we sell it to Spain, then a lot of Americans will finally be able to say they vacationed in Spain. That seems appealing. ^^ Plus, it means all those people who said they would move if President Elect Trump won would be able to keep their promises. Truly Americans are a giving people. That said, still a terrible idea. Soar.

I guess we are not going to be coming together: Calexit is a thing now. The spoiler below contains a link to two videos on youtube. One is a CNN news report (perhaps you folks stateside already know this). The other is a youtube video of an assault on a President Elect Trump voter. Soar.

TheDarkness: I have listened to a variety of people who are self proclaimed alt-righters and those called alt-righters by others. The grand majority of those I have heard are not WN. This of course does not mean there are none by any stretch. But I think it is not an appropriate way to characterize these folks. Broad-Brush strokes don't engender conversation. Soar.

Let me stop you here. You are now moving the goal posts. You said self proclaimed white nationalists. Actually, let me exactly quote you: "Trump utilized flat out white nationalists. Not as some side thing. These aren't people anyone needs to call racists, they call themselves it. Every day, Publicly." I will note that saying "I am alt-right" may strike you as "I am a white nationalist" but this is where we are running into problems. Far too many people on the left seem to think even saying "I am conservative" is tantamount to saying "I am racist". You have gone from claiming that his staff publicly call themselves "white nationalists" to saying they used some code-word that you perceive to mean the same thing. It is at this point that I should end this as I think we have reach a divide. It would seem you have vastly overstated your case and fallen into the exact broad-brush ad-homs that I was criticizing upthread. Soar. Edit- There was more to this post but I think it was more distracting than necessary. I have deleted it.

TheDarkness: People fling around the term white nationalist rather brazenly these days. But since you are stating there are self professed WN in Trumps campaign (not just loosely associated like David Duke), I need to know who this person is. I know at least one person involved who calls himself a big alt-righter and has had to rebuff a few dishonest jounalists who imply he is a WN. The only actual WN I know to have been associated with the campaign was a delegate who was promptly removed when it was discovered by the campaign. Hardly a scandal. Soar.

This is a cross posting from my Facebook. "People are already calling for the President Elect's impeachment. Jeez. Remember when the republican right ranted about this 8 years ago and how we mocked them for their idiocy? Let's not now embrace this BS. One of the few things I clearly remember and felt great about in 08 was that the next day even Glenn freaking Beck went on air and decried every last unpatriotic fucker that spewed out that filthy "not my president" garbage. Let's not mark this occasion with less grace than Glenn Beck - if we can't be classier than him, then we truly do deserve this. I dislike the man. I don't hold out any hope for the country to become more free and prosperous in the next four years. But President Elect Donald J. Trump is MY president." To quote Mahatma Gandhi, "Be the change you want to see." Soar.

Why would you think anything else would happen? We have spent the entire cycle demonizing the opposition. We have convinced too many that President-Elect Trump is the next Hitler and all that it entails. If you actually believed Hitler had been reborn in orange, wouldn't you go to streets? Actually, I am perhaps more shocked that more vocal elites in media aren't in full on apocalyptic riot mode given ths extremist position some have taken. Perhaps this can serve as a lesson to us all about open processes, honesty and hopefulness in message, and NOT demonizing all opposition. Soar.

I am with you all the way up until this exact point. I like Gov. Johnson. I like his moderate Libertarian stance and not throwing everything away as some hardliners want. BUT, he was a poor speaker and made some unfortunate mistakes. Of course the media ran with the gaffs and not the positions, but such is to be expected. I am hoping that we can get a bit of a stronger candidate in the running next time. I think Gov. Johnson did a fair and admirable job this time around in helping get access and should be rewarded for that. But it is time to move on. Two election cycles with him is enough. Soar.

delete

I fear that this isn't a partisan issue. The Democratic party is not above gerrymandering by any means. And why would this be an issue at all in this election cycle? The Census isn't for 4 more years and unless your state is re-drawing lines twice in a census cycle, there isn't going to be any change leading into 2020. Also, come to Tokyo in 2020 for the Olympics. ^^ It will help take your mind of the election cycle which should start in about 6 months. Soar

Nah. It is a good day because the Libertarians managed to secure ballot access in quite a few states. Unfortunately the hardcore Blue and Red states still thwarted us in getting the 5% we needed to secure additional funding but perhaps next time. Good God knows who the Dems will try to field against an incumbent Trump. I am a bit sad that the Dems didn't manage to secure a majority in the House nor Senate. I would have vastly preferred them having the able to pose a stronger resistance to President-Elect Trump's agenda. But perhaps them and the Never-Trump Republicans can manage to rip back some power from the presidency as one poster already mentioned above. I am also glad the Democrats didn't nix the Filibuster. Now they still have at least one tool. Then again, perhaps we should listen to Mega and others here and just nix it now. It is afterall, extremely undemocratic. ^^ President Trump will likely be a bad president. I hold out no hope for us taking steps towards a more Libertarian future. The President Elect is a big government, anti-trade, socially interventionist man. But then again, I think the same of Secretary Clinton. In the next four years we will have some hard times and probably a lot of funny times. But we will continue to go on. This isn't the end of the world. Nor the first step towards concentration camps and religious purity tests. No more than President Obama was the first step to an Anti-Gun UN takeover of the US before we became a one world government. Hopefully this serves as a lesson to us all. On the upside, I earn money in YEN and pay debts in USD, I am likely to get a great deal in the exchanges this month. Insta-pay raise! Soar.

Plausibly not guilty for myself. Edit: Just realized I got 32%. Strange quiz. Soar.

"This American Life" just put out a podcast discussing the emails for ths first half that was quite interesting. Ep 601: master of her domain. Soar.

"How dare the Russians interfere with our political process! Let's interfere with theirs!" How about we just secure our IT centers, stop rigging what should be fair and open processes, and generally not be terrible to each other, and do our darndest to not get in a war with anyone - especially not Russia (or China!). I voted already with a mail-in-ballot. Since I no longer live in my homestate, I felt a little weird voting on some local issues but did so in large part. Not being up to date with some of the candidates, my ballot was largely Gold with a couple blue marks for people that I do know of and think are okay (and because in at least one case the gold candidate was terrible). Soar.

I believe it was in the NGD and has likely been archived. It may have pre-dated the tags a bit but maybe not. I am not sure how accessible the archived ones are. Soar.

I always imagined MJ as being more plain than that woman. Indeed, I never expected her to go beyond "girl next door" status. I think the focus on the super sexy MJ is a bit off and it would turn me off of the character. Soar.

And that is why the whole genre is unwatchable. Conan for dad! Soar.

Yo mama's so fat that she looks like the accretion disc to the Earth's black hole! Soar.