College Basketball 23-24

[Pariah]

11 hours ago, unclevlad said:

52 games today.

 

The most important...

 

Texas Tech 81, BYU 67.  

 

If they were a 4?  This might knock them down into the dreaded 5 seed...12's beat 5's MUCH more often than 13's beat 4's.

 

I've seen projections dropping them as far as 6. I don't think the Cougars will care much. They're just going to be excited to get in and to be favored in a first-round game. Neither of those things has happened much lately.

 

Having said that, BYU has a notorious history of one-and-done in the Big Dance, so a first round upset is in no way out of the question. 

[unclevlad]

6 hours ago, Pariah said:

Having said that, BYU has a notorious history of one-and-done in the Big Dance, so a first round upset is in no way out of the question. 

 

That's true across the field.  The CBS studio folks like to go with upset alerts?  This year...that applies to everyone.

 

And if they drop to #6, well, 11 beats 6 about 3 times in 8.  The 5-12, 6-11, and 7-10 matchups are all fairly close to the same...12 wins 33%, 11 wins 37%, 10 wins 39%.  By comparison?  13 beats 4 only 21% of the time.

 

EDIT:  yet another datum?  Mississippi State's listed on the Last 4 Byes by Lunardi...so, 11 seed.  In the SEC quarters, they're playing potential #1 Tennessee.

MSU 38-19 at halftime.  They've wrapped around Tennessee's offense like an anaconda for the entire half.  Sure, there's an entire 2nd half. but wow.

 

EDIT 2:  separately, after turmoil that led to a suspension, more turmoil and issues as reported in The Athletic this morning, and a season to forget, Michigan has fired Juwan Howard.  

 

EDIT 3:  Mississippi State never lets Tennessee get close;  the second half lead was never less than 12.  They win by 17.  So they're in...and if UNC can win their ACC semi, that likely locks Tennessee out of a #1.

[unclevlad]

And now Virginia has probably played themselves out.  Coming into tonight's game with NC State, they were the 3rd of the Last 4 In...the Dayton-bound teams.  So...extremely tenuous position to start with.  NC State finished 10th in the ACC, 69th in the NET rankings.  Virginia was 50th...and sinking badly late.  Game tied at half, 29-29.  Virginia had a 3 point lead with 6 seconds left...but NC State nailed the buzzer-beater 3 to tie, then scrapped to a small lead and watched Virginia miss multiple shots.  NC State scores the last 9 points in the OT, to go from 1 down to an 8 point win.

 

NC State has a shot at the automatic berth, but UNC stands in their way...and they've been solid for the last several weeks.

 

And Kentucky's *very* erratic season continued, as they lost to Texas A&M.  Kentucky was #9;  A&M's NET ranking was 46.

 

Wall to wall hoops still going on at this hour.  Big Wes, Mountain West, Pac 12, and WAC.  

[unclevlad]

OH MY...MAJOR upset in the Big 10.  Wisconsin trips up Purdue...#3, and an absolute lock to get a #1 seed...in OT.

 

Something like 15 or 16 conference title games are today;  saw a graphic showing there were still 18 AQs left earlier.  Not sure how many games are tomorrow, tho.

[unclevlad]

Houston falls in the Big 10 finals.  Not that surprising, they had injury issues, and nothing to play for, really.  They might lose the #1 overall seed, but I'd be just as happy NOT to.  They're not dropping to a 2 seed.

 

OTOH...NC State beats UNC, and UNC *did* want the game.  

 

So, 3 of the 4 likely #1s fall today.

 

It also means UConn finishes as the only 3-loss team.  Houston and Purdue, 4 losses.  Then I think we blow up all the way to *7* losses...until #18 (in last week's poll) Utah State with 6.  

 

The #1 seeds failed to win their conference tournaments at an amazing rate.  EDIT:  from this morning's first game, the Ivy League championship game.  17 conference #1 seeds failed to advance to their conference championship game...most in 25 years.  That's a wrap because the 5 games today are all championship games, obviously enough.  Bracket release is less than 6 hours away.

[unclevlad]

Interesting.  The First 4 takes the bottom 4 auto qualifiers, they're always 16 seeds by implication.  The other 4 are the last 4 at-large teams.  They're usually 11 seeds;  I've also seen them split between the 11 and 12 lines.

 

This year, they're 10 seeds...which means there's 26 conference champs lower.  4 bid stealers crashed the party late.

 

Mr. P's Mountain West got teams in, but...not great seeds.  

[Pariah]

BYU draws a #6 in the East Region. They'll probably be heavy favorites over Duquesne in Omaha, after which they likely draw a much tougher opponent in #3 Illinois.

 

Win those two games, and the Cougars go to Boston the following weekend and probably get #2 Iowa State ... who has already beaten them twice in conference play this year. 

 

I did notice that three of the last four in were Boise, Colorado, and Colorado State. All three get #10 seeds ... and play-in games (Boise vs. CU, CSU vs. Virginia).  Crazy stuff.

[unclevlad]

Early bracketology...UConn is the favorite;  25% so far.  Houston, about 13%;  UNC, 10%, Purdue 9, Iowa State and Arizona just under 5.  That's still leaving 1/3 of the brackets picking someone lower...which is quite a bit.  There's always the blind-devotion brackets picking, say, Virginia to go all the way, despite their *severe* offensive woes.  (Not only did they get tied on a buzzer beater, losing in OT to NC State...they missed the front end of a 1 and 1 with 6 seconds left.  They're only 64% from the line for the season...344th (out of 351!!!!) in DI.  They're also 255th in effective FG%.  Numbers like that say a deep run is VERY unlikely, but hey, there's no rational basis to pick the winner, so...why not?

[Pariah]

Four minutes into the second half, Virginia trails Colorado State 37-16. The Cavaliers scored 14 in the first half and went almost ten minutes without a point. They're shooting has been atrocious. The phrase "Couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat" comes to mind.

 

Go Rams!

 

Edited March 20 by Pariah

[unclevlad]

I wish to point out that I called out Virginia's offensive ineptitude BEFORE the game.

 

55-35 now, approaching 5 minutes left...and CSU's been somewhat impatient much of the game, no less.  But Virginia's been HORRIBLE on offense...which was a big problem late in the ACC season, where they couldn't reach 50 points in 4 of their last 6 games.

 

 I don't think Tony Bennett's seat is particularly hot, but since the title in 19?  No tournament in 20, of course.  First round loss (#4 seed), NIT quarters loss, first round loss (4 seed again), now a first four loss.

 

Oh my, snarky sweatshirt on a CSU fan, judging by the color...."Virginia basketball is Iowa football."

[Pariah]

1 minute ago, unclevlad said:

IOh my, snarky sweatshirt on a CSU fan, judging by the color...."Virginia basketball is Iowa football."

 

Best.

Sweatshirt.

Ever.

[unclevlad]

Heh...beat you to it.  But I was posting when it showed on-screen.  

 

Looking at the longer track record, I do wonder about Bennett's future.  His first trip to the dance, with Virginia, was '11-12.  NIT quarters twice.  NCAA first round loss 4 times...including the upset of all time, becoming the first #1 seed to lose to a 16.  2 losses in the 2nd round, including as a #2 seed.  Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, and the title.  So, ok, there've been good years, but...so many major disappointments, especially in the last 3 years, which largely correspond to the New Normal due to the transfer portal.

 

BTW:  hey, Mr. P!  UC Irvine vs. Utah, first round of the NIT.  ESPN2 right now.  ESPN's getting the first round done tonight and tomorrow...and the women's first four tomorrow and Thursday.  Huh, talk about Ratings Sacrificial Lambs games, on Thursday anyway....but they are showing em.

[Pariah]

Meh. I may have two degrees from the place, but in general I don't give a hill of dingoes' kidneys about Utah athletics. 

 

Unless they're playing BYU ... in which case I put on anything blue I can find. Go Cougars! 

[unclevlad]

Y'know, you really need to find teams not named Broncos to root for....

 

Kind of a ragged game...both teams seemed tight.

[Pariah]

When I die, I'm going to ask the BYU Men's Basketball team to be my pallbearers ... so they can let me down one last time. 

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, Pariah said:

When I die, I'm going to ask the BYU Men's Basketball team to be my pallbearers ... so they can let me down one last time. 

 

Well, between former Broncos, former Rockies, and former Cougars, I'd say the funeral director would have an abundance of riches there.......

 

Dan Monson's run after being fired ends abruptly, as Arizona takes care of business.

And Morehead State might pull off the first stunner...up 1 against #3 Illinois, very early in the 2nd half...

[unclevlad]

And you're not alone now.  11 Oregon takes out 6 South Carolina...easily.

Of course, the line was actually Oregon -1.5, so how much of an upset could it really be?

 

Barkley was going "oh, I really like the SEC this year" during the lead-in...they're now 0-2.

[unclevlad]

Huh....Texas needs to be concerned;  first half offensive ineptitude could be contagious.

 

Virginia only manages 14 against CSU Tuesday.  Today?  CSU only manages *11*.  They were up 8-2, 5 minutes into the half...then got dipped in liquid nitrogen.  3 points over 15 minutes.  Texas was pretty bad too...like CSU against Virginia.  It was only 27-11 at the half, and the final was only 56-44.

[unclevlad]

CRASH!!!!  

Hope you had your ear plugs handy.

 

Big Blue Nation is in shock.  Oakland beats Kentucky, 80-76.  It's a 14 over a 3...but as far as bracket busting goes, well, Kentucky fans are...mmm...single-minded, shall we say.  

 

So, first stunner to this point.  LIKELY not the last.

 

EDIT:  6 seeds have clearly been cursed.  0 for 3 today.  So, take solace, Mr. P;  once they got slotted into the 6 spot, your team never had a chance.

 

EDIT the last for the night...Samford gets hosed.  Down 1, 15 seconds left, Kansas gets a leak out and a long pass...player's driving for a slam, but he gets run down from behind, and the Samford defender executes a BEAUTIFUL block.  All ball.  No lower body contact...but it's called a foul.  Kansas makes both, and harasses and defends Samford into a tough 3 that doesn't go.  Kansas gets the ball, gets fouled (altho they almost turned it over)...hit the first FT to ice the game.

[Starlord]

Wow.

 

That was a HORRIBLE call.

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, Starlord said:

Wow.

 

That was a HORRIBLE call.

 

It was, but in fairness, at live speed I was wondering if they're review it for a flagrant.  The driver lost control, so the optics are...hey, he had to be hit.  But...no.  The defender got all ball...and the is what led to the driver going off-balance.  A drive like that OFTEN leads to the driver catching himself on the rim for control anyway.

 

And it's too bad, because Samford clearly had the ball, and were gonna be able to bring it up for, at worst, a 4 on 4, down 1, against a defense that would've been rattled...their breakaway broke.

 

And this was the post-game discussion...Clark and Kenny mostly.  

PS:  The Athletic wondered if Calipari might be in trouble at Kentucky...perhaps the highest-expectations basketball program in the country.  The last 4 years...no tourney, then very early exits...first, second, first round.  3rd, 3rd, and T-2nd in the conference they feel they should OWN.  The model of mostly one-and-done type players is tricky inherently, but with the transfer portal and NIL, it's even harder.

[unclevlad]

FUN STUFF!!!!

 

Colorado goes super-tight and super-conservative in blowing a sizable, late lead;  Florida hits a long 3 to tie with about 8 seconds left.  Colorado gets it down into the low block...little baby hook bounces a couple times on the rim...and goes in.  Florida can't hit the desperation 3.  So #10 Colorado advances...so, I think it's 5 double digit seeds.

 

MORE amusing...in a WILD!!!!! ending, Yale beats Auburn.  That's a 13 over a 4...can't *wait* to hear Barkley's consternation.  Auburn misses 2 FTs, down 2 with 7 seconds, but get the board, and a flurry of shots, in close but contested, but they don't drop.

[unclevlad]

And the night ends with another one, as #12 Grand Canyon takes out #5 Saint Mary's.  I don't treat a 10 over a 7, or a 9 over an 8, as upsets;  they're too close to tossups regardless.  But that makes the final tally 1 three seed, 1 four seed, 2 fives, and 3 sixes.

 

And, yeah, if ya wanna argue the 11 over the 6 is getting to be too close to be a noteworthy upset...I wouldn't argue strongly against ya...

 

And there was a bit of confusion...ESPN's perfect bracket tracker had 0 perfect brackets after the Wisconsin loss, but the leaderboard had 1 left.  THAT one fell when Utah State won.  So regardless...22 million brackets, and none survive the first round intact.  That's despite only one really big upset...3 seed or higher.  I'd kinda thought there might be 2.  There were 20 brackets with one miss...but that'll drop considerably once everything's updated.  

 

 

[unclevlad]

OK, had I picked a bracket, I would've picked the Zags...even if Kansas was at full strength.  Much less depleted.

 

But I didn't expect then to break out a Spo-CAN on em......

 

 

(Yes, I will steal from Ernie Johnson.)

[unclevlad]

Oregon pushed Creighton...game went to double OT, but totally ran out of gas.  They had 2nd half leads, but couldn't finish the deal.  They had 2 players take 70% of the shots, and score 80% of the points...but as you can imagine, their tanks ran dry at the end.  SEVERE depth problems.  Not like Creighton was particularly good, they only got 7 points from their bench...in a double OT game.

 

That wraps up a day and night that was...almost completely chalk, for once.  The only higher seed to fall was Kansas, and that was a 4-5 game where the 4 was hurting.

 

How dull............

 

Shattered brackets!!!!!  I want shattered brackets!!!!!!