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College Football 2023-2024


Pariah

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WOW.  

 

Washington's up 9 late.  Texas moves the ball, Sark kicks the FG with about 1:10 late.  
Onside kick fails, but Texas does have 2 TOs.  On 3rd down, a bit of a freak play...the Washington RB gets a somewhat gimpy leg twisted kinda wrong during a tackle.  He's got to be helped off, and left the field after the game on the cart, unfortunately.  This means its a time out for Washington...the LAST thing they want.  So, it's 4th down, they have to punt with about 50 seconds left.

 

They have a false start.  Lose 5 yards.

They get the kick away fine...the Texas returner calls for a fair catch.  A Washington player just isn't watching, he's simply getting WAY too close.  The return guy takes a step to the left to line up the catch...and the Washington guy interferes.  15 yards.

 

Now Texas gets a couple big plays and BIG catches...and get it all the way down to the Washington 15, with about 15 seconds left.  

First down, short gain in the flat, receiver scuttles OB.

Second down, good pressure, Texas QB has to throw it away basically.  5 seconds left.

Third down, more pressure.  Texas QB has to ditch it.....and does so JUST in time.  Ball hits the turf...with 1 second left.

Fourth down...one more play by the Washington secondary, one last incompletion.

 

Washington holds on, 37-31.

 

EARLY line is Michigan -4.5, but if the Washington RB's injury is bad enough to keep him out, that'll probably shift a bit.  It's their main RB.

 

14-0 vs. 14-0.  #1 vs. #2.  Not common.

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Why, Michigan, why must you wear navy pants in the biggest game of the year? Your signature look is maize and blue. The mono-navy look makes you look like an FCS team.

 

Washington's white over white with gold helmets isn't bad, especially since the pants are striped. But I would have preferred either purple or gold pants. They didn't ask me, of course. They never do.

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Not Penix' finest hour.  I thought Washington would get some of the big plays, but...nope.  Penix has been rattled most of the game, and now, he's battered and bruised.

 

Side thought...anyone else looking at his low, 3/4 throwing motion and thinking that's not gonna fly in the NFL?

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I'm ok with banning the color purple from the playoffs.
 

And so it ends.  34-13, Michigan wins the last national title of the Pre-Professional Era.  Harbaugh can also now move on...mission accomplished.  Next stop..........who the heck knows.... 

 

Oh, and we forgot yesterday.  No surprise.  23-3, IIRC, South Dakota State goes undefeated.

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Which will probably start a coaching mini-carousel.  

 

'24 schedule has Bama at Oklahoma...and Georgia at Alabama...but they don't play Texas.  They killed divisions, at least in football, I suspect because they didn't want to add a 9th conference game.  They'd rather keep the petits fours week, typically the week before the season-ending rivalry games.  So it's 8 games;  I suspect most teams will have at least one dedicated rivalry game like Alabama-Auburn or Florida-Georgia.  That leaves 7 games for 14 teams...so perhaps it'll be alternating-year style.

 

For '24, Bama has Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, and Oklahoma.  They only dodge Ole Miss;  the other 4 were all top 6 in the SEC.  Well, OK, perhaps Oklahoma's the soft touch there.

 

EDIT:  NYT's story on this drops a few names...of course, totally speculative now but...

Dabo Swinney?

Steve Sarkisian...poach the guy who beat Bama in the regular season?

Mike Norvell from FSU?  

 

All 3 are very interesting.  Dabo...he was behind only Saban in pay, so that might not be realistic.  Norvell's fairly plausible, particularly if FSU's conference affiliation is tenuous.  Sark would be an amusing poach.  The other interesting point will be how much Bama will fork out.  Saban was making $11M, but hey, you win 6 titles, you deserve it.

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And that didn't take long either.

 

Kaleb DeBoer decides...

a)  It's time for a BIG raise.  (Mind...$4.2M from Washington...but figure that gets doubled, minimum.)

b)  It's likely, overall, that Washington's going to have a rather tougher time in the Big 10.

 

That said, there are no more than a handful of true, pinnacle programs in college football now, IMO.  Alabama's one of them.

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To me, a pinnacle program is, as it suggests, at the top, from a coaching perspective.  We know the ladder...small school in a secondary conference, then better school in a secondary conference, then power conference.  And atop that ladder, are the handful of schools with great programs, prestige, and track records over an extended period.  Still have to keep Alabama for now.  Yes, this may change, but figure...3 losses *one time* since 2008.  Plus the historical record...there are very few poor seasons.  There are few others...Ohio State, yes, but Michigan, no.  Clemson, definitely not;  they've been near the top since '15 but before then, mediocre overall.  Georgia?  1st tier...but not pinnacle.  Oklahoma...I don't think so, but the prestige is still there.  

 

I think we're likely to see more runs at/near the top, like Clemson recently, or Miami for a while.  Florida State probably pushed to pinnacle by the late 90s...87-2000, never lower than 4th...but they slipped considerably right after that.  The transfer portal means dynasties are *much* harder to maintain, IMO. And the massive realignment and the 12 team playoffs...it'll be a completely different landscape now.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
32 minutes ago, Pariah said:

Is the NCAA about to get the FA,FO they've been dancing around?

 

SEC, Big Ten 'advisory group' stands as coded threat to NCAA: Figure it out, or we'll go off ourselves

 

I didn't think it was coded in the slightest.  

 

The NCAA is a gigantic committee.  Of course it can do nothing...and it even does that incompetently, as the recent NIL sanction cases indicate.  It's no coincidence, IMO, that Florida and Tennessee are under investigation for NIL violations, but I've certainly heard plenty that the NIL rules are seriously unclear and generally lacking.  And no one expects the NCAA to fix anything in a timely manner.

 

Yes, IMO, this is absolutely the opening volley against the NCAA...and I agree it's entirely the NCAA's fault.  It *might* just be football only, but I expect any NIL and transfer rules for football will also be used for basketball.  The next move may be to see if the ACC and Big 12 try to join the party.

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1 hour ago, Pariah said:

 

My take is it says a lot more about

a)  UCLA, first and foremost, and

b)  the existing Pac-12.  Despite their success in '23.

 

This is a very interesting op-ed about it:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/chip-kelly-just-wants-to-coach-ball-but-his-exit-from-ucla-is-concerning-amid-college-footballs-hazy-future/

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/why-trend-of-college-football-coaches-bolting-to-nfl-taking-lesser-job-titles-has-no-end-in-sight/

 

Interesting take.  I rather like this:

 

Quote

"The most difficult job in all team sports is being head football coach at a major university," long-time agent Leigh Steinberg told CBS Sports. "Think about how they have to recruit 17-year-old talent, project where they're going to be. There is NIL to deal with. … You have to deal with administration, alums, the press. There are whole levels of complication a pro coach doesn't have to deal with."

 

You've also got massive rosters to oversee...and whose bad behavior will reflect on the head coach to a degree...massive coaching staffs to monitor, and boosters whose self-interest and self-motivation may not mesh with rules.  Note that head basketball coaches have many of the same pressures, altho their overall programs are much smaller.  The basketball coaches generally *can't* leave, tho...a college head coach at, say, a .500-level, group of 5 program that makes the ESPN "we need programming" bowls pretty often, can move to a coordinator at a middling Power 4 school.  The middling Power 4 head coach can shoot for an NFL coordinator, or probably even just a position coach, if they are feeling burned out.  Even a few years of pay, at the rate power conference HCs get paid, likely means they can be set for life...see for example
https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2023/10/03/look-updated-big-12-coaches-salaries-for-2023/

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It's a negotiating move, I think...if they can't get this, then they'll continue the move to separate from the NCAA altogether.

 

If you wanted to call it blackmail, well...that might fit too.

 

EDIT:  this was one of the other pieces from CBS on this...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-ten-sec-power-grab-tough-to-stomach-but-difficult-to-argue-amid-college-football-playoff-negotiations/

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Just finished my simple dinner.  Somehow it's staying down, which is a bit surprising considering this.
https://theathletic.com/5343141/2024/03/14/college-football-playoff-contract-revenue-split/

Quote

Multiple sources briefed on the revenue model confirmed the new breakdown to be roughly 29 percent annually for both the Big Ten and SEC (more than $21 million per school), 17 percent for the ACC (around $13 million each), 15 percent for the Big 12 ($12 million each) and 9 percent for the Group of 5 conferences collectively (around $1.8 million per school). The remainder goes to independents, including more than $12 million for Notre Dame, and the Football Championship Subdivision. There is an additional performance bonus available only to independents for making the CFP field.

 

They're talking about the distribution of CFP money from ESPN.  Article's probably paywalled for most, but there's numerous stories about this now.

 

Fine.  Just kick the Big 12 and ACC to the dirt, ignore the rest, and split off the SEC and Big Ten into the NFL minor leagues they think they are.  (I *do not* think the Big Ten as a whole is anywhere near that level.)  And Notre Dame gets $12M?  FOR WHAT?  

 

And note, this doesn't count the relative value of the regular season contracts, which already pay the Big Ten and SEC far more than anyone else.

The Group of 5 knows they're getting hosed...but reportedly, also know there's not squat they can do about it.  They have about as much leverage as an overcooked spaghetti noodle.

 

EDIT:  took longer than it should have...but I'm watching the last Pac-12 basketball game of the night, and they're talking about the death of the conference.  That slapped me in the face:  the revenue distribution report doesn't mention the Pac-12.  So, what does this mean for OSU and WSU, once this conference year is finished this summer?  It feels like they have no assets to offer up, to reconstitute the league.  The conference will nominally exist for the 24-25 season, as will the Pac-12 network, altho what they'll show is unspecified.  It feels like this slams the coffin shut, and seals the lid onto any chance of it coming back.

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