unclevlad

And how of of those Pathfinder books is fluff? Yes, I count all prestige classes, all races, all variant classes...as fluff. How many books do you NEED to read, to play? How many of those are campaign books, or class books, or whatnot? Yes, to a point, they're 'rules' books because both Pathfinder and D&D have almost no rules, in a systemic sense. What they have is a set of exceptions and special cases. It's the worst possible way to build rules, but yeah, it's what lets gaming companies sell a zillion more exceptions. I'm actually pretty sure most people are saying much the same thing. All right, let's actually bring some numbers into this. KA STUN, 4d6, using the 6E STUN mult (a d3) Many STUN totals are impossible, so I skipped them. These are rounded to the nearest percent. P(total stun at least 36) -- 31 P(total stun at least 38) -- 25 P(total stun at least 39) -- 24 P(total stun at least 40) -- 20 P(total stun at least 42) -- 19 P(total stun at least 44) -- 15 P(total stun at least 45) -- 15 P(total stun at least 46) -- 11 P(total stun at least 48) -- 11 P(total stun at least 51) -- 8 P(total stun at least 54) -- 5 P(total stun at least 57) -- 3 P(total stun at least 60) -- 2 P(total stun at least 63) -- 1 P(total stun at least 66) -- 0 P(total stun at least 69) -- 0 P(total stun at least 72) -- 0 12d6 -- STUN, percentage 42, 53.32693980477263 43, 46.673060195192626 44, 40.108723576102626 45, 33.806089328702626 46, 27.917394539142627 47, 22.564386106792625 48, 17.831351558682627 49, 13.762348354492627 50, 10.362598605692627 51, 7.603437296512627 52, 5.429777614632627 53, 3.768850548012627 54, 2.538993269342627 55, 1.657465075978627 56, 1.0465962821586268 57, 0.637947569198626 58+ is down below 0.5%. I don't care at that point. It simply won't happen enough to be meaningful, so trying to say one near-impossibility is more likely than another is splitting a carbon nanotube. Note that even 51 STUN is basically a TIE. 54 STUN, the KA has a small advantage...but not much. You're getting down to the 1 chance in 30-ish that you'll get 57+. Flip side? 70% of the time you won't reach 36 STUN, which basically means, you do nothing in the scenario we're discussing. So, yes. Hugh's right. Chasing that 60+ STUN with a KA is like hoping a monster is gonna miss his save in D&D...when he saves on a 2. Now, yeah, in 5E? KAs are gross. They're sick. They're hideously overpowered. Stun from 4d K, 5E: P(total stun at least 42) -- 40 P(total stun at least 44) -- 37 P(total stun at least 45) -- 36 P(total stun at least 46) -- 33 P(total stun at least 48) -- 33 P(total stun at least 50) -- 30 P(total stun at least 51) -- 29 P(total stun at least 52) -- 28 P(total stun at least 54) -- 26 P(total stun at least 55) -- 25 P(total stun at least 56) -- 24 P(total stun at least 57) -- 22 P(total stun at least 60) -- 21 P(total stun at least 63) -- 17 P(total stun at least 64) -- 17 P(total stun at least 65) -- 15 P(total stun at least 66) -- 13 P(total stun at least 68) -- 13 P(total stun at least 69) -- 12 P(total stun at least 70) -- 12 P(total stun at least 72) -- 10 P(total stun at least 75) -- 9 P(total stun at least 76) -- 7 P(total stun at least 80) -- 6 P(total stun at least 84) -- 4 P(total stun at least 85) -- 4 P(total stun at least 88) -- 3 P(total stun at least 90) -- 3 P(total stun at least 92) -- 2 P(total stun at least 95) -- 2 P(total stun at least 96) -- 1 P(total stun at least 100) -- 1 P(total stun at least 105) -- 0 P(total stun at least 110) -- 0 P(total stun at least 115) -- 0 P(total stun at least 120) -- 0 So...80 STUN? Still 6%? And that's higher than a normal attack can possibly do. And 1 time in 6, we're well over 60, which quite possibly will stun the target? MUCH!!!! too high...particularly as this also requires major additional expense, to avoid taking an uncomfortable amount of BODY.

Since football is the driving force behind this, it makes sense to put this here. Op-ed from NYT about the state of college sports: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/21/opinion/college-sports-broken.html?unlocked_article_code=F240N_wC-kqwSmxkqwmOpKjzSubPTJRfCi-w1RXinvdkGb5NoVL3yiME6OaprHyXLPeelojI4ahFqALia7ZnOJLdhZbvH3Ylhd2-Z2j8_h5-p84zYh7RPneGmmhnSWJd6oxX6VbvYe933k1ZNAqrIiJViIFHIM9-jvyt6FKincJGwSh5n-rWJk82MEEwrYdAWWXZ520wgVRKanyr_zrGuH6xBd5-D74H4WUrFMD_sHvKinUU6HldlB52zI0b1vv6vDPUZ5fuycCIpzGOc6xxaSRqPHFhsevgD6VTkVM8TdTSpx62q6tt9vpjvqJi65YIXvIymhZsAU2RWtAlYfeoVA&smid=url-share

In other sports, I'd buy that, but not in baseball. There simply isn't that much difference, in my book, between a top-5 pick and a late-first pick...in part because there's so many options, in part because the failure rate is REALLY high, in part because LOTS of lower-round picks blossom later on. Overall farm system, that I'd buy more, but that's not related to draft order. Some consistent losers simply don't spend...Pirates, Royals, Reds. Some have had serious systemic/institutional problems...A's and Rockies. Some are, I think, just perfectly happy to be competitive, and sneak into the playoffs every now and again...but will NOT overspend. Minnesota's the lead here. Many mis-build, IMO...MLB Now was talking Ohtani, and raised a VERY good point, IMO: when you blow the budget for 1, maybe 2 players, you frequently leave the rest of the roster badly deficient. The guest they had one today made the point: he doesn't want Ohtani *at the price he's going to command.* Can it work? Sometimes, but SO often it doesn't. A 10 WAR player doesn't fix a -5 WAR roster.

Hey, come on. Cubs are nosediving. Dodgers won't much care, probably; good chance they'll be locked into the #2 spot. And Twins will have the division wrapped, and probably be locked into the #3 spot, so, no bye. Oh, who am I kidding? The Dodgers OWN the Rockies. The other 2...well, it's possible. The Cubs are crashing and burning spectacularly, and the Twins are gonna at least line up their pitching for the playoffs. Could be worse. A's probably won't win 50. They may set the worst run differential in history; they're -329 right now, and the record is -349 with 10 games left. They're -2.16 per game...so, it might be close. They probably won't set the record for worst run differential per game; -349 over 154 games translates to about -367 over 162 games. Interesting. In '19, '21, and '22...there were 4 teams with 100 losses. '22: Nats, A's, Reds, Pirates. '21: D'backs, Orioles, Rangers, Pirates. '19: Royals, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers. We have 2 so far, and the Rockies and White Sox will probably both reach it too. So...4 teams twice, 8 others once each, if that's the way it breaks out. There's a lot of Really Bad teams every year.

One could argue he's just got a massive ego, and thought he could control them. Meaning he didn't learn anything about needing, what was it, 15 ballots to become Speaker?

More indications that the shutdown is inevitable... https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/21/politics/house-government-shutdown-negotiations-latest/index.html

Sorry, the double elim didn't happen. Sox got eliminated last night, even tho it doesn't show in the MLB standings. Sox have 78 losses. 2 WC teams have 85+ wins, and Texas and Seattle have 84...and they play each other. So one must win at least one more, ergo...bye bye, Beantown. Yankees are technically still alive...but must win all 4 games left vs. Toronto. Lose one, it's over. Then, each team has 6 other games. Only 1 can go against the Yanks...a Toronto win or Yankee loss. In THIS scenario, tho, the loser is very likely the Blue Jays...as both Texas and Seattle would pass them, and lock the Yankees out. Minnesota is dormie. 9 up in the loss column to both Cleveland and Detroit, who both have the tiebreaker. Still, they're hanging on by a thread that's unraveling. So, basically, the AL is over, except for AL East winner, and the Texas-Seattle head-to-head games that become a de facto 7 game playoff series. NL...Brewers have a pretty firm grip on the division, so this is all about the WCs, which is still wide open. Padres could conceivably make a run, if they win out, but still need too many teams to play poorly. Philly...probably in. But Arizona, Cubs, Miami, Cincy...they're all basically .500 teams. They get hot, they go stone cold. ANY of em could go 8-2 or 2-8, largely regardless of matchup. San Fran still has a faint pulse despite being .500, for that reason.

1. It's been a longstanding issue that the primary process often favors more extreme candidates. There've been numerous articles addressing this, with things like ranked-preference voting. 2. I still wonder how much it's being a Trumpist, versus how much it's about being a total idiot. From that article, the NH loser posted abortion rights supporters "desired blood sacrifices to their god Molech." Seriously? That's going to be rejected even by a fair number of anti-abortion types, it's just too ridiculous for any but the most rabid. OTOH, we're nearing 3 years since the election Trump lost. That horse got sent off to the glue factory 2 years ago, but they still try to beat on it. This is one that now does alienate anyone outside the MAGA diehards *fast*.

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... Best: D'backs go 5-0 on a short homestand...against the Cubs and Giants, both WC contenders. This has moved them up to the 2nd WC spot. Worst: the aforementioned Giants. 0-2 against the D'backs, which also gives the D'backs the season series tiebreaker...AFTER 1-3 against the Rockies. Their WC window narrowed sharply. They're not out of it, but they're long shots now. For the D'backs...Corbin Carroll becomes the first rookie ever to reach 25 HRs and 50 steals. He's only the 9th player to do this. Hitting .280, slugging .800...a serious rookie feat...yeah, he's got to be a shoo-in for RoY.

I know what they look like. You missed my (indirect) point... If they're Scotch bonnets OR habaneros...both are plausible...well, whoever's handing these out might be lucky if this ONLY causes the police to come by to shut it down and issue a citation...as opposed to coming by with the ambulance after an irate parent goes ballistic. Pun intended.

I do hope those are bell peppers.............

Congratulations to Adam Wainwright for getting #200. Wasn't sure it would happen. And it's been pointed out...he might be the LAST pitcher to get *200*. 300? Almost certainly never again. Even 250...the only active pitcher with 250 is Verlander. Greinke has 224, but he's 39, his ERA this year is over 5, and his WHIP is over 1.3. Next would be Scherzer at 214, and 38. He'd need 3 more pretty good years. Kershaw has 209, and is a bit younger at 35, but his back is a big concern. As far as 200? Gerrit Cole has the best shot. He's got 143, he's only 32, and he's on a team that will spend money to win. Bumgarner has 134 wins, he's 33...but he was released by the D'backs after a *terrible* start back in April...and no one picked him up. No one else with 100+ wins is under 35. Looking at this season? Strider's pitching tonight, he's got 17 wins. Steele has 16 for the Cubs. 3 pitchers have 15; 4 have 14; and 4 have 13. 15 wins now, is like 20 was maybe 15 years ago.

I don't think I can speak impartially about either W...but the fact is, neither team can possibly give up on them at this point, and it's only week 2. I did catch at least one writer...who admits he has little understanding of the X's and O's...praising Wilson, and projecting ahead. Yeah, well, what happens if we knock off the miracle catch at the end of regulation? 17-31 for 258, with 7 sacks for -31. And, fine, he completed 80% against the Raiders...for 5 yards a play. Numbers can lie. I think he's doing *better*...but that's a bar in the sand. ESPN's QBR has him 11th, which I'll admit surprised me. But that's not good enough. And the acrimony is coming out already. Watson...yeah, well, no one here is gonna cry if he crashes and burns, right? And no Chubb at this point.... Forget it. Oh, and that same QBR? Watson's 30th. The only 2 lower are Fields and Pickett. Yeah, as I say, it's only week 2, but when you're down THIS low? How much of a turnaround can reasonably be expected?

Chipotle powder is one of my absolute favorites. It's not generally that hot, but the flavor is rich from the smoking. It adds a dimension that plain chiles or powders don't have. Salt and chipotle powder on eggs? All you need. Oh, and to touch on a side aspect...chili powder is VERY much distinct from chile powder, in the US anyway. "Chile" is the term for the peppers...everything from bell pepper to Carolina Reapers. The family also includes the peppers used in cayenne and paprika. "Chili" is...let's call it a style, of spicy food, particularly stewed dishes. Chili powder has ground chiles...but also oregano, cumin, and garlic powder.

Well, one country's terrorist is another country's friendly citizen..... India has a less than stellar record on civil rights, according to Freedom House. Political freedom...not bad, 33/40. Civli liberties? Not good, 33/60. Free press, religious freedom, academic freedom...2/4. Independent judiciary, due process, protection from the use of illegitimate force...2/4. https://freedomhouse.org/country/india/freedom-world/2023 This site's always useful, IMO.

In that last word? Change that first letter to a d. And while it's too early to totally give up on Watson, buyer's remorse has to be creeping in...like a charging rhino..... 2 MNF games is Disney doing market research, pure and simple. Who's watching, and how. Problem is, both games were putrid. And next Monday? Of the 4 teams...Eagles, Bucs, Rams, Bengals...the Eagles are the only ones that I think will draw wide interest. Rams-Bengals might draw some people in to see if the Bengals are continuing to fall off the cliff, especially offensively, and whether the Rams are total pretenders or plausible contenders. The Eagles-Bucs could also be a beatdown. But that's why. It's market research. It's less about money now; I suspect they have to fork over near-double cash to get 2 slots, and there's no way the combined ratings are gonna be double. I think the intent is to compare streaming audiences to broadcast audiences, particularly as Disney's looking at moving ESPN to a streaming product ONLY, over time.

And this was also a foregone conclusion. Michigan State has sent formal notice that his contract is going to be terminated, with cause. He's got 7 days to present evidence to convince them not to. Not happening. The other ongoing investigations won't stop...and Tucker can safely be assumed to file suit to at least get the "for cause" removed...and recoup what's due on his contract. Elsewhere, as a result of the play after Josh Heupel called a timeout, down 13 with 7 seconds left...late hit on the Florida QB that was called targeting, and that sparked a fight...3 Florida and 1 Tennessee players were suspended by the SEC for the first half of the next game. I put these on Heupel too. After the game.... Who are you kidding??? I was thinking, the way the QB was running around...ok, drop back, scramble round for a few seconds, then HEAVE!!! it deep. By the time the ball lands, it's game over. And Heupel thinks he can a) have Florida run ANY sort of play b) get the ball back then score on the next play c) execute an onside kick, AND d) execute a Hail Mary And a, b, and c have to be completed in a total of 6 seconds. It's testosterone poisoning, I think. The result is he's out 2 players for the first half of the next game. It's the pointlessly aggressive, futile move of the type that frequently translates into personal fouls. It's NOT competing, it's tilting at windmills with a pencil for a lance.

Yep. In the immortal words of Dr. Gregory House, week 1 always lies.

Perhaps the latest Line You Do NOT Want To Hear... Joe Buck, Browns-Steelers game..."I am told we are not going to show the replay of the injury." I don't have a problem with that, but it's also, I suspect, the NFL playing a PR game...NOT wanting to show the gore, if it's one of those ugly-nasty type "the human body was never intended to move in that direction" injuries. EDIT: ouch....regular speed, you can't see much, but there's a suggestion of the aftermath because Chubb's knee pad is BELOW his knee...meaning it got hit hard enough to be dislodged. Slow mo? Yeah, you can see it. It's quick, but the shot on the left knee causes it to bend to the right noticeably. I suspect we're talking complete reconstruction of that knee is going to be required. EDIT 2: Halftime, SVP et al have brought up this. Per Adam Schefter: That makes this all the more worrisome...as in, career threatening. EDIT the last, for tonight: no details other than "significant" injury to the knee, but the Browns coach confirmed, as expected, Chubb is out for the season.

It is sad, but unfortunately not surprising, that the CSU player who hit Hunter has been receiving death threats, as has his family. Some <BLEEP><BLEEP><BLEEP> published their personal data...cellphone numbers and addresses...on the internet.

Because you don't have 9 or 10 digit net worth and an ego that can be stroked by getting insider access to a football team. Elsewhere: https://www.newsweek.com/alabama-drops-no-13-ap-top-25-while-florida-enters-poll-1827843 No changes in top 4. Bama's offensive ineptitude drops them to #13. The Pac 12 has 3 in the top 10...and 4 more in the second 10. It won't stay that way as conference games come into play, but still, that's amazing. 2 years ago, a disaster. Last year...hmmm. This year....oh my. Welcome to the Power of the Transfer Portal...at least in part.

Take any marginal group. Demonize, demonize, demonize. It's been a path to power exploited over and over. And sometimes it need not be such a marginal group...Shiite vs. Sunni, Catholic vs. Protestant in Ireland, Somalia's ethnic cleansing, pogroms against Jews and Romani. Hate has always been a convenient path to power.

Yeah, recognizing that much of the South would go under water...that's something everyone recognizes. Well, everyone that understands there ARE problems, anyway. One aspect the video points out, tho...the major river systems that empty into an ocean, will see THEIR levels rise...and therefore, spill over greatly. But this form of "flooding" wouldn't recede. Bye-bye *large* chunks of the already receding Amazon rain forest. Who knows how far the water will back up on the Mississippi. Even if it's not enough to breach the flood control systems up as far as, say, St. Louis...if it forces the base level of the river to rise by a foot, it's that much closer to seasonal flooding. And that point's of concern even if the water rise is lesser. If we assume flood controls are installed to manage up to a 100 year flood...well, raise the base level some, and now maybe that level of river rise becomes once every 25 years.

If you haven't seen it.... https://www.si.com/college/colorado/football/colorado-travis-hunter-suffers-lacerated-liver-out-for-weeks I was wondering...spleen, maybe? So liver makes sense. Seriously dirty hit. Technically NOT targeting by the NCAA rules, so the game refs can't eject him, but the hit deserves a suspension.

But always remember...the predictive power of the first 2-3 games (at least) is approximately equal to that of an astrology chart.