archer

Kosovo requests permanent US military base and speedy NATO membership https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kosovo-asks-us-permanent-military-base-speedier-nato-membership-2022-02-27/ Also EU Wants Ukraine In

S&P Global has cut Russia’s credit rating to “junk” status in the latest sign that western sanctions are already dealing a severe blow to the country’s financial markets... S&P said it could reduce Russia’s rating further over the next three months once its analysts have “more clarity on the full macroeconomic repercussions of the existing sanctions and the evolution of the geopolitical conflict”. https://www.ft.com/content/9690aae4-97e2-4009-a84e-da61ef2fd827?shareType=nongift ==== Moscow braces for ruble to crash at least 25% as new sanctions hit https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/27/ukraine-moscow-braces-for-market-meltdown-monday-as-new-sanctions-hit And that may be optimistic: Bank in Vladivostok sells USD for 250 Ruble- Friday's rate was around 80 (which had been a severe drop. I can't confirm the tweet is true, but oh boy. Also And

Being a neo-Nazi is a crime and being a homosexual is a crime so they're being internally consistent? I dunno, the government of Russia no matter who is in charge has never made sense to me....

International assistance/aid roundup: Of course a number of countries donated money, military assistance, and humanitarian aid before the conflict started. So this is just the last couple of days (and yes, I probably missed a lot). ==== EU European Union member countries will supply Ukraine with jet fighters, EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said Sunday. Mr. Borrell said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has asked for jet fighters that his country’s air force can operate. Those planes would be Soviet-built models, mainly MiG and Sukhoi jets. Some current EU members that were once part of the USSR-led Warsaw Pact still fly such planes or have old ones parked. That's part of a 450 million Euro lethal military aid package. (A Senior advisor to the EU Parliament said those aircraft will be on their way to Ukraine within a couple of hours.) (Slovakia and Poland, for example, both are still flying such aircraft.) https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/zjCJ5iME2keSkxfiaIpr or without a paywall https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/eu-approves-450-million-euros-in-lethal-military-aid-for-ukraine ==== UK British Petroleum (BP) to end partnership with Russian oil company Rosneft. BP currently owns 19.7% of Rosneft. They're currently in consultations with the UK government to figure out how to divest itself without selling its share to potentially inappropriate buyers. (Without BP resources and technical assistance, Rosneft will likely be partially crippled unless they can find replacement experts.) https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/bp-exits-partnership-with-russian-energy-company ==== Poland According to a source, the air-to-air missiles which #Poland has delivered #Ukraine today are mostly R-73 short-range Infrared guided air-to-air missiles which will be used by MiG-29s of #UkrainianAirForce. https://www.aeroflap.com.br/uniao-europeia-fornecera-avioes-de-caca-para-a-ucrania/ ==== Sweden Sweden will send military aid to Ukraine, including anti-tank weapons, helmets and body armour, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Sunday. "Sweden is now proposing direct support for Ukraine's armed forces. It includes 135,000 field rations, 5,000 helmets, 5,000 body shields and 5,000 anti-tank weapons" Andersson told a news conference. https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/law-order/1940486-sweden-to-send-military-aid-to-ukraine---pm-andersson?amp ==== Croatia About 200 Croatian volunteers arrive to fight for Ukraine https://dnevnik.hr/vijesti/svijet/dragovoljac-iz-hrvatske-za-dnevnik-nove-tv-o-razlozima-odlaska-u-ukrajinu---697812.html?itm_source=HomeTopRow&itm_medium=Dnevnik&itm_campaign=Naslovnica ==== Slovakia Slovakia announces temporary residency, including free healthcare and permission to work, for all Ukrainian refugees - a NYT story that's being tweeted about but I haven't looked up a link. ==== Czech After a previous delivery of small arms and artillery shells, Czech Republic sends unspecified "heavy weaponry" worth roughly 16 million euros to Ukraine. (Czech twitter sourced) ==== Belgium Belgium will supply Ukraine with 3,000 automatic rifles and 200 anti-tank weapons https://censor.net/ua/news/3319787/belgiya_postavyt_ukrayini_3_tys_avtomatychnyh_gvyntivok_i_200_protytankovyh_zasobiv ==== Norway Norway donates an additional $226 Million humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Norway gives 140 million Euros in military aid and equipment, setting aside principle and law not supplying countries engaged in active war with military equipment. https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/7dg0mW/norge-trekker-oljefondet-ut-av-russland https://www.nrk.no/norge/store-holder-pressekonferanse-om-situasjonen-i-ukraina-1.15872013 Norway's $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, will divest its Russian assets following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Norwegian government said on Sunday. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norway-says-sovereign-fund-divest-180353072.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADlrsS-RsKE4iXp3S5bJqKES6NZymJ2nl9CCINZILwV7E7StyZ-RphDTik1z1SChxCX3Nru78ztsiJtsQr6UCyjgF9uoJoYgyBP7gzR1Z9d1ehqCERYvnzI5qRQYVMKHB_6jPHLolzE5lCZ7MJu5vPBvzubieUPCouvx-dqxxGLw ==== Turkey Turkey to implement Montreux Convention due to Ukraine War. That allows them under international treaty to not let Russian warships transit from the Mediterranean into the Black Sea or vice versa. Russia had positioned a couple of missile cruisers in the Mediterranean to in theory be able to threaten a US carrier group there which could support NATO forces in the Balkans and Turkey plus reach as far as Ukraine. But I'm not sure how long the Russian ships can operate without additional fuel and other resupply. https://thearabtimes.com/turkey-to-implement-montreux-convention-due-to-ukraine-war/ ==== Germany Germany to Raise Defense Spending Above 2% of GDP in Response to Ukraine War 2% is the supposed minimum to be a NATO member but Germany in the past hasn't been doing even that much. SO this is a big boost. I guess that's not necessarily assistance to Ukraine but if Putin starts worrying about a resurgent Germany, he might not want to squander all of his forces elsewhere. Some other sources such as ABC say this is a multiyear 100 billion Euro commitment. https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-to-raise-defense-spending-above-2-of-gdp-11645959425 ==== Denmark Denmark will send 2700 MANPATS to Ukraine (man-portable anti-tank systems) https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/udland/seneste-nyt-om-konflikten-i-ukraine-putin-og-scholz-holder-moede-ved-det-store-hvide Denmark will let its nationals join international brigades forming to fight in Ukraine against Russian forces, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Sunday. https://thethreadtimes.com/danish-pm-says-volunteers-can-join-ukraine-fight ==== Switzerland Swiss President of the Federal Council: freezing of russian assets 'highly probable' (link in German) That'd be an almost unprecedented step if they actual took a substantial step in an international conflict. https://www.srf.ch/news/international/krieg-in-der-ukraine-cassis-einfrieren-russischer-vermoegenswerte-wahrscheinlich ==== Chechen One of the most famous Chechen leaders living abroad (Ex Prime minister of Ichkeria who has many Chechen supporters from Europe and Turkey) said they are getting ready a Chechen resistance to fight against Russians, Kadyrovists (source foreign language twitter). Of course it took Russia an immense amount of effort to win the first two Chechen wars in the 1991-2000 era and to install a Russian puppet government there. If things start up again....

I'm glad you appreciate it. I'm constantly worrying that I'm posting too many stories and am boring people rather than informing them. I have to put up with a lot of people on other websites who think they need to post every story that they see...and who seem to have no way of gauging whether the story is important or not. So to those who might be borderline irritated, please rest assured that I'm posting only a tiny fraction of what I'm seeing and am not deliberately trying to bury you under a blizzard of irrelevant information. I'm trying to stick to items which have already come up in the conversation, major changes on the ground, and slow-rolling changes which might turn into something very important over the coming days (like the Finland vote and the potential of a new uprising in Belarus). But if people have specific requests of things they'd like to see as I come across them, let me know. @Old Man Thought you'd enjoy this story in light of earlier conversations: Ukrainian troops defending Chernihiv region blew up 56 tanks of diesel fuel that were being transported by a Russian military convoy. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/02/26/7326282/ Also:

In Finland, the petition for the country's accession to NATO has gained the necessary 50 thousand signatures, which will allow it to get to the parliament for consideration... According to the established procedure, signatures must be checked, after which the appeal will be sent to the Parliament for consideration. https://translate.yandex.com/translate?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcensor.net%2Fua%2Fnews%2F3319615%2Fu_finlyandiyi_petytsiya_pro_vstup_do_nato_nabrala_potribni_golosy_teper_yiyi_peredadut_do_parlamentu&lang=uk-en

And they aren't doing it secretly or anything. Their chancellor stood up in public and announced it. So this is a very major change for them.

You might remember this lady from the 2020 Belarus election. The supposed president there was running for his 6th term in office and arrested her husband who was his main political opponent. She decided to run in her husband's place. After the election, she declared she got 60% of the vote and gathered a transition team to negotiate the transfer of power. The president declared that he got 80% of the vote and she got only 10% then threw her transition team into jail. There were widespread protests about the election results. She went on Twitter today and declared herself to be the president of Belarus and for the current president to be a traitor for assisting the Russians in the invasion of Ukraine. Don't know how this will turn out but since the Russian army actually left her country, she's at least in a much better spot than she would have been trying this a couple of weeks ago. And there's certainly more public sentiment against their president now since the images of the invasion of Ukraine have become public.

Since I posted last on SWIFT, the US, Germany, and Hungary have openly come out in favor of banning the list of Russian banks which are currently on the sanctions list from access to SWIFT (not all Russian banks but at least the ones already on the sanctions list). I haven't seen any official announcements from Italy or Austria but there are some media reports which state that all NATO nations are now in favor of that move. edit: Italy is officially on the list.

Ministry of Defense of Latvia

MSNBC this afternoon says that on Ukrainian social media that there's multiple images of Russian tanks which have been abandoned in place because they ran out of fuel.

Hi, There's been a lot of conversation about banning Russia from the SWIFT financial system, so I've been engaging in a lot of conversations about the SWIFT financial system. Then having to recreate what I've already written because I can't easily find what I've already written repeatedly. Anyway, I thought it'd help me to write up some basics of where we're at, for the moment, so I could have something to come back to in later conversations. And I thought it might be useful or interesting to people here rather than squirreling it away for my personal use in my email. ==== SWIFT is the system which banks use to communicate with each other about the financial transactions they're making between themselves. Before SWIFT, they made telephone calls or sent telexes which basically anyone could read so communications weren't secure. Many countries are wanting to kick Russian banks off of the system because it'd make it more difficult, or at least slower, to conduct their business. When Iran was kicked off of SWIFT in 2012, it basically eliminated close to half of their transactions with foreign banks. Of NATO countries, France, Canada, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, and the UK have come out in favor of removing Russian banks from the SWIFT financial system. France is the big surprise on that list since it's highly-dependent on Russian natural gas and had been talking like it'd be against the removal. ==== Germany, Italy, Austria, Hungary, US at the moment are against removing Russia from SWIFT. Germany, Italy, Austria are highly-dependent on Russian natural gas and so need some way of paying Russian banks. Italian and Austrian banks being highly exposed with loans into Russia which might not be repaid if Russia were to retaliate when removed from SWIFT. Hungary's strong-man-in-charge, despite his country being in NATO, has been a fairly reliable friend of Putin. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/anger-explodes-at-germany-italy-and-hungary-over-europe-s-failure-to-cut-russia-off-from-swift-payment-network/ar-AAUi8DM ==== Germany and the US are against removing Russia from SWIFT because they're looking at it this long and involved way... The Bank of Russia began developing its own alternative to SWIFT in 2014, called the System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS). As of 2021, SPFS was already handling up to one fifth of Russian’s payments messaging volume. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/personal-finance/swift-russia-ukraine-war/ The Russian system has its drawbacks. Whereas SWIFT operates 24 hours a day, SPFS can send payment messages only during weekday working hours, Maria Shagina, a fellow at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the University of Zurich, wrote earlier this year. SPFS also has shorter limits on the size of messages, she said. (But they'd likely upgrade their system if it became their primary way of receiving payments from foreign banks.) China, whose economy is far larger than Russia's, is also developing an alternative to SWIFT. In 2015, Beijing launched the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) to help internationalize use of the Chinese currency, the yuan. https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-swift-nuclear-option/31601868.html Russian banks could go back to phone calls and telex. But it's much more likely that they'd just insist on their European customers using their system or China's system. Doing one would be a major benefit to Russia while doing the other would be a major benefit to China...because it would make that system a legitimate alternative to SWIFT for banks worldwide to use. Both Russia and China have objected for decades about having to do oil/natural gas transactions in dollars rather than their own currencies. If Russia is dumped from SWIFT, it could likely get away with insisting that its customers buy rubles from the Russian central bank and then pay for oil in those. That would help stabilize the ruble which had dropped in value significantly when Putin announced his invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, it would tend to devalue the dollar since it would no longer be the international standard for energy trading. And likely if Russia could get away with making their energy transactions in their national currency rather than the dollar, China could probably get away with it as well. (Personally I don't get the economist's arguments that "trading in rubles" would stabilize the value of the ruble more than "Russia's central bank increasing its store of foreign currency". But they all seem to agree that actually using a country's currency is more stabilizing than having foreign reserves to back the value of it.) So basically, Germany and the US are looking at the "next level" of the bad things which would happen after Russia is kicked out of SWIFT rather than focusing on the immediate bad things which would happen to the Russian economy as it made the adjustment. That's the argument of "in SWIFT" or "out of SWIFT", which you aren't going to get from media sources because the people who write the articles don't understand it for the most part. And the few who do understand it are ordered to not write in that level of detail because it will supposedly "go over the audience's heads". ==== Also worth noting, in 2019 then-Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev stated that removing Russia from SWIFT would be a declaration of war. Take that for what you will, Russian officials say a LOT of marginally crazy things which don't turn out to become actual government policy. https://news.yahoo.com/putin-demands-nato-guarantees-not-193448779.html

Yeah, we need to be worried about Finland. But Finland has already been in talks with NATO about becoming a member. And it along with Sweden has been included in major NATO discussions this week about the Ukraine situation. So it's much further along the path toward NATO membership...and doesn't have a history of dithering over whether to be pro-West or pro-Russia like Ukraine had.

On the Norway/Russia border:

One day, this guy, who has been stranded on a desert island all alone for ten years, sees an unusual speck on the horizon. "It's certainly not a ship," He thinks to himself. And as the speck gets closer and closer, he begins to rule out the possibility of a small boat, even a raft. Suddenly, emerging from the surf comes this drop-dead gorgeous blonde woman wearing a wet suit and scuba gear. She approaches the stunned guy and asks, "How long have you been on this island?" "Ten years," he answers. "How long has it been since you've had a cigarette?" "Ten years!" he says. She reaches over and unzips a waterproof pocket on her left sleeve and pulls out a pack of fresh cigarettes. He takes one, lights it, takes a long drag, and says, "Man, oh man! Is that ever good!" She then asks him, "How long has it been since you've had a sip of bourbon?" Trembling, he replies, "Ten years!" She reaches over, unzips her waterproof pocket on her right sleeve, pulls out a flask, and gives it to him. He opens the flask, takes a long swig, and says, "Wow, that's absolutely fantastic!" Then she starts slowly unzipping the long zipper that runs down the front of her wet suit, looks at him seductively, and asks, "And how long has it been since you've played around?" The guy, with tears in his eyes, replies, "Oh my God! Don't tell me you've got golf clubs in there!"

One day in class the teacher asks the students to tell a story that has a lesson. Suzie puts her hand up and tells a story about the time she was at the beach and jumped into the water and cut her leg badly on a jagged rock she didn't see. She said the lesson of the story was to look before you leap. Next Pete told a story about how he went with his dad to a junkyard and they found a bike someone had thrown out. Pete and his dad brought it home and cleaned it up so Pete could ride it and it was his favorite thing in the whole world. The lesson of the story was that one persons trash is another persons treasure. They went around the room until they got to Little Johnny. He told a story about how his grandpa was a soldier in World War II. One time his grandpa found himself all alone and out numbered. All he had was a grenade, his rifle, 20 bullets, a bottle of whiskey and his bayonet. He was facing 30 enemy soldiers. He took a swig of whiskey, pulled the pin and threw the grenade, taking out 5 enemy soldiers. He took another hefty swig and picked up his rifle and shot 20 more. Out of ammunition he fixed his bayonet, drained the last of the whiskey and charged the remaining soldiers. In bloody hand to hand fighting he managed to kill them all. The class grew silent as he finished his story. The teacher said "That's incredible Johnny. What is the lesson to that?" Johnny said, "The lesson from that is you don't want to mess with my grandpa when he's been drinking."

What is Irish and stays out all night? Patty O'Furniture

The CEO of IKEA was elected Prime Minister in Sweden. He should have his cabinet together by the end of the weekend.

A guy walks into bar, orders a beer and lets out a heavy sigh. "What's wrong, Bob?" the bartender asks. "Oh nothing really," Bob replies. "I guess I'm just not myself today." "Yes," the bartender agreed. "I noticed the improvement immediately."

An ego and a superego walk into a bar. The bartender says, "I'll have to see some id."