Armory

Food access is a serious problem in the United States right now. We are as of this week pushing out food assistance to about 10k youth (from 2700 normally) daily through student meals with closed schools. Just to pick one source. It's all connected, parental unemployment is massively increasing the need. For the general population the food bank had to ask for the National Guard to expand their mission for support because of the amount of folks needing assistance. CalFresh applications alone went up 78% in April. 
 
We will not be able to maintain that with existing resources. There's a desire to do it obviously, but we're going to hit some hard limitations pretty quick. 
 
Don't think that people having no food access is off the table in the United States. It is a matter of resources and timeline, with enough funding and major policy changes maybe... it's hard to say if this could be achieved beyond a month or two. The secondary impacts are starting to stack up in a pretty unnerving way. Rental issues are the next big one. Currently eviction is suspended, but it will drop back into place sometime, maybe the next phase, maybe later. 
 
Then we will have huge problems with housing. That stuff is coming in several waves as we move along. 

Let me be clear.  I do believe this plague is much worse than seasonal flu.  It appears to be doing real, lasting damage to people that we do not get from the flu.  It's also super contagious.
 
However, even in places that did not shutdown AT ALL, the death rate is VERY low.
 
Let's look at South Dakota which shutdown exactly nothing.  They are clocking in at 3.76 deaths per 100,000.
 
The homicide rate in relatively safe, affluent, north Dallas is about 6 per 100,000.  Death by car accident and other accidents is about 10x higher than Coronavirus (so far, I know it will get worse).
 
Did we shut down the country for homicide or the risk of accidents?  No.
 
The global shutdown *might*, per the UN, starve 100 MILLION people to death.  I do believe we have extended the shutdown too long and we're doing more damage than good at this point.
 

I'll say this after today's Costco run.
 
The meat department is decimated.  There was a modicum of chicken, but pork and beef were all but gone.  The cuts of beef that were available (round, stew meat, etc.) were dramatically lower quality cuts than are typically available.
 
The idea of people running out of food for an illness that's clocking in at a hot 2.7 deaths per 100,000 is no bueno.
 
 

Meanwhile in North Dallas we are clocking in at a devastating, way-of-life altering 2.2 deaths per 100,000.
 
It will probably get worse before it's over, but I can't fault people who think this thing has been grossly overblown.
We suffer a mortality rate about 100x higher than that by way of over-eating here.
 
If I take the top ten things that kill Texans the last entry is 6x higher than Coronavirus.
Add drug overdoses, suicide, firearms accidents and homicide the bottom of the 13 item list is still almost 3x higher than Coronavirus.
 
South Dakota didn't even shut down and they're clocking in at 3.5 deaths per 100,000.
 
It's not hard to understand why people in rural areas believe this was economic ruin in return for nothing at all.
 
We'll find out over the next month or so now that we're opened up.

I never disagreed on a macro level.  
 
But, you didn't have to tell us you have no sympathy, people in rural areas already know.  hence, why self-sufficiency becomes a big thing.   More about survival.   As unlike the rosy picture you painted, there is rarely that larger community that rallies around you, when in need.
 
I started to post more, but I realize banning is possible due to my feeling on the matter.  ANd I just don't care if you see the other side of things.
 
 

Finished up rewatching the Justice League animated series..
 

 

well, the reality is these counties are being hurt disproportionately to how the disease has moved..   The sparse population insulates them from the danger of the disease.  But, it also works against them, as there aren't enough of them for government to give a damn what happens to them.  My point was from their point of view, I could see someone thinking  "we cant get money to buy supplies, we (theoretically) might not be getting a decent amount of supplies even coming in, what are we doing this for?".    On a most basic level, it is hard to justify closing down a random small mountain community because some city 300 miles away has a disease.  Especially if little to no business is done between the 2, and their only connection is that they share a state.  

And in the "Do as I say, not as I do" category of scumbags we have:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/
 
Mr. Inflated Death estimates himself gets caught violating social distancing rules so he can sleep with a married woman (who has kids).
 
I hadn't realized how bad this guy was with estimates until I read a couple of articles on his previous flops.
1A:  Predicts up to 200,000,000 deaths from bird flu in 2005
1B:  282 people die from 2003 through 2009  (nearly a million to one miss).
 
2A: Predicts up to 65,000 deaths in the UK from swine flu in 2009.
2B: 457 people die from swine flu in the UK. (inflated by 14,200%).
 
3A: Predicts 50 to 50,000 people in the UK will die from mad cow disease and up to 150,000 if it infects sheep.
3B: 177 people die from mad cow disease in the UK.
 
4A: Predicts 500,000 people in the UK will die from Corona virus without preventative measures and 250,000 WITH preventative measures.
4B:  So far... 29,501.  By far his best estimate to date with only being inflated by about 900%.

Interestingly, mentioned in the paper, that there are 3 rural counties here in VA, still yet to have a case.  If I lived in one of those counties, it would be hard for me not to feel like that I am being buried into financial ruin, so some politicians can pat themselves on the back.  

Governments can declare things open all they want. The public will decide when that happens.

Of course. I don't mean to imply that times aren't difficult, that people aren't suffering, and there's no reason to be concerned. All those things are real. But more and more people talk about a continuing shutdown of our economy like it means the end of our civilization. The Spanish 'Flu didn't end civilization, nor did the Black Death, nor the Great Depression, nor two world wars. This isn't an Ice Age, or a global nuclear war, or an asteroid impact. I don't want to sound disrespectful, but likening what's happening now to an apocalypse seems like the view of societies which, as a whole, haven't dealt with severe ongoing hardship within living memory.

Essentially,  being too self-sufficient does often lead to isolation in your time of need.   Not being self-sufficient enough leads to being slave to the whims of your benefactors (often gov't).

You don't have to be a conspiracy nut to think that China is extremely dangerous and uses their influence in ways we should not be comfortable with.  Whether this is an escaped lab experiment, or just a natural disease that came out of their wet markets, I think it's safe to say that they are cutting a lot of corners when it comes to health and safety.
 
Personally I think this is a good time for the United States to re-evaluate our relationship with China.  Allegedly some of their officials made comments about "we might not be able to export antibiotics to other countries" in a very threatening kind of way.  It may be time to start moving a lot of manufacturing back home.

Our governor has mandated a "stay at home" order, but there is at least one local business openly up-and-running with the equally open backing of the regional sheriff.
 
*sigh*

I can't trust the WHO who ignored information from Taiwan about how contagious it was and then was, days later, still telling us there's no evidence of person-to-person transmission.
 
Have you guys seen the interview with the reporter who asks about Taiwan?  First the WHO guy pretends he can't hear her.  Then he hangs up.  Then she gets him back on the call and asks about Taiwan again and he responds with something along the lines of, "We've already covered that.  Let's move on.".
 
Actual brief non-interview below.  It is chilling.
 
 

Case spikes can sometimes be misconstrued.  Last week or so in Ohio we had a massive one day case spike and found out a couple days later that they had gotten around to full inmate testing and posted all the results that day.

I'll be starting on What We Do In Shadows again, since the new season drops tomorrow.
 

That's Hedley!

My perspective could be a bit skewed as I spent an hour watching the Kern County doctors go over their numbers and basically conclude that everyone should go back to work.  Throw away the masks and build up your immune system style.
They looked at multiple community tests like the ones in New York, California and elsewhere that show that 10-20% of the public has already had COVID-19.
 
They crunch a bunch of numbers and come out along the lines that Coronavirus is going to be about as lethal as a bad influenza season and that while the initial shutdown was VERY MUCH JUSTIFIED due to the lack of solid data early on that the data at this point suggests that shutdowns are not having a significant effect compared to places that are not shutting down (Sweden, South Dakota, etc.).  They mention very large tragic spikes upward in child abuse, domestic abuse, suicide, etc., being caused by people being forced home.
 
They mention some immunologically silly things that have been decided like:  I can't go in a salon and have my hair cut by one person, but I can stand in line at CostCo with 200+ people for 45 minutes after shopping with the hoard.
 
So going into the article with that as my warm up video it made a lot of sense to me.  I just re-read it based on your feedback and...  it's good stuff, imo.
 
Remember the point of the shut down was to avoid flooding hospitals.  Made sense - critical factor in survival rate.
 
Chart below from California HHS.
 

 
 
 
 

Looks like the opinion of the medical community is shifting on COVID.
 
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/494034-the-data-are-in-stop-the-panic-and-end-the-total-isolation?amp
 
That article makes great points.  Some of them were eye-poppers.
 
Even the Wall Street Journal had an article on how the lock downs are having a small effect in terms of lives saved
https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911 (annoying paywall).
 

Politics, the great enemy of getting anything done.
 
It's unfortunate how much science and scientific analysis is affected by this.  It's why keeping the actual scientific method and review process reliable is so important.
 
Consider the damage that may have been avoided if the 1960s study inspecting heart problems hadn't been bribed to avoid sugar and to blame fat instead?  How many have died or had terrible health because of decisions made based on that?

Are you suggesting that every single day has to be lower than the day before for 14 consecutive days rather than a trend line that is going down?
 
That would be a bat-shit crazy way of doing things.  I mean, I wouldn't put it past the administration to *write* it that way, but that would be an irrational standard.

South Dakota is very sparsely populated AND did not shut down at all.
 
Cases: 2313
Deaths: 11
Mortality Rate of Confirmed Cases: 0.48%
Overall Mortality Rate: 0.0012%
 
Case Trajectory:

 
I wonder if more of the so-called fly-over states couldn't have gone this way without significant economic damage.  I would NOT have recommended this for big population centers.

Recent testing in New York has suggested that over 20% of the people already have Covid-19 antibodies.  Statewide the rate is around 13.9%.
Cuomo said if the 13.9% statewide infection rate holds true, that would suggest a total amount of infections of around 2.7 million statewide, with a 0.5% death rate.
 
Full Article: https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/04/23/coronavirus-survey-reveals-13-9-percent-in-new-york-have-covid-19-antibodies-cuomo-says/  (100% NewsGuard rating).
 
Currently in Texas we're looking at 651 deaths and we'd have to reach 20,155 deaths to match New York's numbers (assuming 13.9% infection rate and 0.5% mortality rate).
Sweden, which is intentionally going for herd immunity, would have to reach 7,110 deaths using the same rates.  They are currently at 2,274.
 
My suspicion that we were doing more harm than good with the lock downs is growing.
 
 
 
 

Well, we did for 150,000 years.