Simplification of Combat

[Agent X]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

Unfortunately the ratio is about 20 to 1 against you.

I want to reraise this claim of yours. It "felt" like a massive exaggeration so I've done what research I can and this is what I found.

 

http://www.gamingreport.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Sections&file=index&req=printpage&artid=133

 

Quoted:

 

"...the number one company in the market is Wizards of the Coast. One distributor quoted in ICv2 said that "Dungeons & Dragons sells four times World of Darkness and World of Darkness sells four times everything else." C&GR gives Wizards a slightly less commanding, but no less apparent, lead, with a little less than 43% of the core hobby RPG market, again roughly the same as last year. White Wolf likewise held a decisive second place, with strong sales for the reimagined Vampire and new World of Darkness core books driving a good second half of 2004. By C&GR numbers, the Wolf actually improved its standing, to 22% of the market in 2004.

 

Similarly, the revised GURPS 4th Edition books rode full-color hardbacks (and commensurate price increases) uphill to 5% and a bit of the RPG market in 2004; again, ICv2 concurs that Steve Jackson Games is Number Three with a (6d++ large piercing attack) bullet. C&GR lists AEG at fourth place with 4%, FanPro at fifth and Palladium in sixth with around 3.5% each. ICv2 forbears to give numbers, but lists the next three as Mongoose, Green Ronin, and Hero. If I had to guess, I'd say it's most likely Mongoose at fourth (call it 3.5% or 4% of the market) and the rest of the second tier (FanPro, Palladium, AEG, Hero, and Green Ronin) in a cloud of dust somewhere down there in shouting distance of 2%. Fantasy Flight and Kenzer and Eden may have 1% each at best; the rest are bouncing around down there among the drow and suchlike."

 

Based on what I could glean from this, it really doesn't look to me like M&M is selling anywhere near 20 times what HERO sells. It appears they are pretty close to each other in numbers - and HERO doesn't have a D20 connection to the number 1 salesleader.

[MitchellS]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

I'm not going to keep having this debate with you, especially considering that I'm the one with the MBA and you're the one who probably sells hotdogs for a living. If you don't understand that the CG&R's data is based upon retailers who choose to respond to their informal poll then I suggest you do a little more market research [including Steve Long's own comments about it on these boards when people would discuss CG&R's reporting of Hero sales].

 

Then I'd suggest you actually do some pricing of full-color printing costs at 4-6 different volumes. Find out what it costs to print 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, & 25,000 full-color books versus black & white. Then take those figures and roll them into the retail price of various books. Keep in mind that the publisher only grosses about 35% of the retail price [and please don't forget to include the cost of writing, editing, laying out, and, of course, the cost of the full-color art itself]. Numbers don't lie.

[Hugh Neilson]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

I'm not going to keep having this debate with you' date=' especially considering that I'm the one with the MBA and you're the one who probably sells hotdogs for a living. [/quote']

 

[DANGER: THREAD DERAIL]OK, I'm a chartered accountant, and over my 15 years (and counting) in public practice, I've met some pretty dense MBA's (a former partner of mine once described one as "educated far beyond his intelligence", which I think was a pretty accurate assessment of the individual in question) and some pretty smart high school dropouts. One such dropout refers to himself (still today) as "a ditchdigger" and has built his "little ditchdigging business" into a net worth in the tens of millions. His business acumen is incredible, and his ability to tell who's teling him the truth and who's blowing smoke is uncanny.

 

The moral of the story? Don't let the letters after the name mislead you - there are some very smart people out there with no formal accreditaton, and some pretty dumb ones seem to manage to slip through the system and have a wide variety of impressive designations conferred upon them.

 

I can't say precisely where Mitchells falls (though from what I've seen, I don't think he's in the "educated beyond intelligence" category), but it always gets my back up when someone expects his opinions to be accepted as gospel solely due to his position, designation or other credentials. Credentials get your foot in the door. Competency opens it up for you to come in.

 

As for M&M vs Hero sales, absent some truly definitive evidence, the jury's still out, but 20x seems unlikely to me. If M&M were outselling Hero by a 20:1 ratio, Green Ronin should have a much bigger chunk of the industry pie given they also sell d20 prodiucts and other items while Hero sells - well, Hero![/rant - and sorry for you having to put up with it.]

 

Simplification of combat? Flip a coin - heads you win, tails you lose.

 

Too extreme? You can solve the "add the dice" time issue (if you want to) by using a standard effect for all but a few dice.

[MitchellS]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

As for M&M vs Hero sales' date=' absent some truly definitive evidence, the jury's still out, but 20x seems unlikely to me. If M&M were outselling Hero by a 20:1 ratio, Green Ronin should have a much bigger chunk of the industry pie given they also sell d20 prodiucts and other items while Hero sells - well, Hero![/rant - and sorry for you having to put up with it.']

Unfortunately you're making the assumption that Hero is selling well right now. If I told you that Hero was only selling 1,200 copies per book would you consider it to be impossible that M&M is selling 24,000 copies? 2,000 to 40,000? If you assume Hero sells 10,000 units then it is quite reasonable to assume Green Ronin is not selling 200,000, but you need to start from the correct baseline.

[Hugh Neilson]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

Unfortunately you're making the assumption that Hero is selling well right now. If I told you that Hero was only selling 1' date='200 copies per book would you consider it to be impossible that M&M is selling 24,000 copies? 2,000 to 40,000? If you assume Hero sells 10,000 units then it is quite reasonable to assume Green Ronin is not selling 200,000, but you need to start from the correct baseline.[/quote']

 

Absolutely. And this is not a baseline which is available to me, nor do I believe it is available to you. Neither do I (or you, I suspect) have Green Ronin's sales figures. All we have to go on is personal perspective, and limited anecdotal evidence. With that in mind, concluding on the ratio between the two seems somewhat less than fully supportable.

 

The broadest information is that quoted from magazine articles above and, as you have noted, these are supported by information from a limited number of retailers. I suspect, hwoever, that it ha smore statistical validity than what I, or you, see on store shelves.

[AliceTheOwl]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

I'm not going to keep having this debate with you' date=' especially considering that I'm the one with the MBA and you're the one who probably sells hotdogs for a living.[/quote']

Whoa!

 

Okay, I'm no fan of Agent X's, but that was TOTALLY uncalled for.

 

The guy's trying to have a debate with you, using facts, numbers and citations, and you insult his intelligence? Not cool.

[MitchellS]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

Whoa!

 

Okay, I'm no fan of Agent X's, but that was TOTALLY uncalled for.

 

The guy's trying to have a debate with you, using facts, numbers and citations, and you insult his intelligence? Not cool.

The man was not using any facts. The man was using 9 month old data, which everyone in the industry states is incorrect, and trying to prove it as fact. And the guy isn't trying to have a debate with me. He follows me from thread to thread like a stalker constantly calling me out. I do not need to prove why I like M&M better than Hero to the 12th decimal but he keeps demanding it of me in one way or the other in numerous threads.

 

There is only so much tolerance I am going offer to Agent X. The man has told me to leave the Hero boards on 3 separate threads just because he doesn't like the fact that I play M&M instead of Hero now. I don't need to put up with his constant badgering but I'm certainly not going to leave the Hero community because of one stalker.

[AliceTheOwl]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

The man was not using any facts. The man was using 9 month old data, which everyone in the industry states is incorrect, and trying to prove it as fact. And the guy isn't trying to have a debate with me. He follows me from thread to thread like a stalker constantly calling me out. I do not need to prove why I like M&M better than Hero to the 12th decimal but he keeps demanding it of me in one way or the other in numerous threads.

 

There is only so much tolerance I am going offer to Agent X. The man has told me to leave the Hero boards on 3 separate threads just because he doesn't like the fact that I play M&M instead of Hero now. I don't need to put up with his constant badgering but I'm certainly not going to leave the Hero community because of one stalker.

So refute it with the new, current data. I still don't see how this justifies insulting his intelligence. He may be a lot of things, but stupid isn't one of them. And personal attacks only weaken your argument.

 

Pardon my cynicism over the 'stalker' remark, but I think most people will agree that it's odd to make such an assertion on a thread he started.

[MitchellS]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

Absolutely. And this is not a baseline which is available to me, nor do I believe it is available to you. Neither do I (or you, I suspect) have Green Ronin's sales figures. All we have to go on is personal perspective, and limited anecdotal evidence. With that in mind, concluding on the ratio between the two seems somewhat less than fully supportable.

 

The broadest information is that quoted from magazine articles above and, as you have noted, these are supported by information from a limited number of retailers. I suspect, hwoever, that it ha smore statistical validity than what I, or you, see on store shelves.

Unfortunately I can't debate your point. The simple fact is that I have information which you don't. There's nothing I can do about that. If DOJ wants to talk about their sales numbers then that's fine but I'm not going to get a contact at Alliance fired over something as pointless as this thread.

[massey]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

Riiiiiight.

[MitchellS]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

So refute it with the new, current data. I still don't see how this justifies insulting his intelligence. He may be a lot of things, but stupid isn't one of them. And personal attacks only weaken your argument.

 

Pardon my cynicism over the 'stalker' remark, but I think most people will agree that it's odd to make such an assertion on a thread he started.

Unfortunately in the latest CG&R Hero isn't even on their list any more [sales have dropped below their radar] so there is no additional published "flawed" date to refute it with.

[MitchellS]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

Riiiiiight.

Steve or Darren can come out here and refute every single word I said, if they so chooses or think I'm completely wrong. I'll be happy to take anything said straight from the horse's mouth as gospel.

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

...Simplification of combat? Flip a coin - heads you win' date=' tails you lose...[/quote']

Ok, let's not get ridiculous. Obviously Paper-Rock-Scissors is the way to go

 

But seriously, folks, the thing that needs to happen to speed up combat, in my experience, is that people need to pay attention to what's going on and have a plan of action BEFORE IT'S THEIR TURN! Watching the poor gm do a complete combat recap for every person every time, and then watching that person look down at their character sheet while humming a tuneless noise as they ponder what their next move is...THAT is what slows combat down.

[Agent X]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

I'm not going to keep having this debate with you' date=' especially considering that I'm the one with the MBA and you're the one who probably sells hotdogs for a living. If you don't understand that the CG&R's data is based upon retailers who choose to respond to their informal poll then I suggest you do a little more market research [including Steve Long's own comments about it on these boards when people would discuss CG&R's reporting of Hero sales'].

 

Then I'd suggest you actually do some pricing of full-color printing costs at 4-6 different volumes. Find out what it costs to print 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, & 25,000 full-color books versus black & white. Then take those figures and roll them into the retail price of various books. Keep in mind that the publisher only grosses about 35% of the retail price [and please don't forget to include the cost of writing, editing, laying out, and, of course, the cost of the full-color art itself]. Numbers don't lie.

This argument gets you nowhere. You're working off the false premise that DOJ's business model is that, if they produce the minimum amount of books to make full-color printing practical they would do so. I've seen no indication that their plan was ever to go to full color books so, that M&M had full color books and HERO doesn't means very little to me.

 

Also, your appeal to your own authority means very little to me since I've already found your presentation of the "evidence" to be propagandistically selective. IOW, the information you provide concerning HERO products and M&M products lacks credibility with me.

[MitchellS]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

This argument gets you nowhere. You're working off the false premise that DOJ's business model is that' date=' if they produce the minimum amount of books to make full-color printing practical they would do so. I've seen no indication that their plan was ever to go to full color books so, that M&M had full color books and HERO doesn't means very little to me.[/quote']

Do a seach on the boards. Steve talks about the reason Hero doesn't do full-color is that they don't have enough volume to make the price realistic. I believe he even talks about some full-color prestige products he'd like to do needing to cost $200 based on quantities.

 

DOJ's business plan was never to do full-color because they knew, even in their hay-day, that they never had the necessary volume required to make the product cost effective. I don't make this stuff up. I just read things and remember them.

[MitchellS]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

http://www.herogames.com/forums/showpost.php?p=12407&postcount=34

[Hugh Neilson]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

http://www.herogames.com/forums/showpost.php?p=12407&postcount=34

 

First' date=' as you observe, WOTC prints in huge numbers compared to Hero. Their print runs are, based on what I know or can surmise, easily at least 5-10 times ours, if not more. That leads to economies of scale that make color printing cheaper. We don't have that luxury.[/quote']

 

Note the reference to WOTC print runs being 5 to 10 times the size of Hero's. For M&M print runs to be 20 times those of Hero, they would need to be 2 to 4 times the size of WOTC's.

[Hugh Neilson]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

Ok' date=' let's not get ridiculous. Obviously Paper-Rock-Scissors is the way to go [/quote']

 

Can we license Cockroach-Foot-Nuclear Bomb?

 

But seriously' date=' folks, the thing that needs to happen to speed up combat, in my experience, is that people need to pay attention to what's going on and have a plan of action BEFORE IT'S THEIR TURN! Watching the poor gm do a complete combat recap for every person every time, and then watching that person look down at their character sheet while humming a tuneless noise as they ponder what their next move is...THAT is what slows combat down.[/quote']

 

Very true. My rule (as a player) is to watch combat unfold and have my next move planned when my turn comes up, with two exceptions:

 

- if something happens that changes my plans, I revise my plans QUICKLY, like my character would have to do, not by getting a full rundown of every skirmish in progress, measuring the distance to each possible target and re-reading my character sheet a dozen times for the best possible approach.

 

- if my character is KO'd, I only pay attention to recoveries. When he wakes up, he's in the same boat as above - needs to quickly assess what's going on and act.

[MitchellS]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

Note the reference to WOTC print runs being 5 to 10 times the size of Hero's. For M&M print runs to be 20 times those of Hero' date=' they would need to be 2 to 4 times the size of WOTC's.[/quote']

You're not taking 2 things into account here:

 

1: That post was made during Hero's hay-day when sales were much higher then they are now.

 

2: Steve says: "easily at least 5-10 times ours, if not more." He does not say between 5-10 times more. You need to read all the words, not just the ones you like.

 

I'm basing M&M sales off of Hero sales 1,200-2,500 range.

[Darren Watts]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

We don't discuss actual sales figures with anybody. However, Mitchell is drawing some conclusions that are a bit off. First of all, he's comparing M&M's current core book sales with our supplement sales; M&M has outsold Champions the book, but not 5th, (and by much less than 20:1) and there are considerably fewer titles in the M&M line. Sales of Champions, while quite strong by RPG standards, are about a quarter that of 5th, and obviously an even smaller fraction of our entire line. Their core book does vastly outsell, say, Champions Worldwide; OTOH, Champions vastly outsold, say, Time Of Crisis, too, so I doubt that proves anything.

 

Secondly, C&GR's results are reported on a monthly basis, from a relatively small number of stores, and are currently drawing on a sales period in which we didn't have any new books come out and a distinct shortage of backstock thanks to our big reprint project, now complete. We haven't "dropped off the radar." In fact, December's going to be our second-largest month of the year for sales.

 

I'm not sure why Mitchell feels the need to post here, but if he's going to I do wish he'd avoid trying to manipulate facts. We're very happy for Green Ronin; they're all friends of ours, and M&M is a good book. Their success, I'm happy to say, hasn't come at our expense. dw

[MitchellS]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

Actually Darren I was discussing current sales versus current sales not past sales versus past sales: where Champions and M&M curently sit in the great scheme of things. Where they sat 3 years ago is pointless. I wouldn't even begin to try and compare Fantasy Hero sales to Green Ronin's d20 sales. The attempt would be laughable. In any event I'll be happy to let it drop and defer to your wisdom.

[Darren Watts]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

Actually Darren I was discussing current sales versus current sales not past sales versus past sales: where Champions and M&M curently sit in the great scheme of things. Where they sat 3 years ago is pointless. I wouldn't even begin to try and compare Fantasy Hero sales to Green Ronin's d20 sales. The attempt would be laughable. In any event I'll be happy to let it drop and defer to your wisdom.

 

Sure, I understand that. But it's not a fair comparison- M&M 2nd is their big core book, recently released, and it's doing quite well. Comparing it to a supplement of ours (especially the twentieth in a line, like CWW) doesn't tell anything about the relative markets for the two games. I'll happily cop to the fact they've sold more of their core book than we have of all but a couple of our supplements ever, but that hardly means M&M has driven Champions out of the market. Compare, for example, the number of Champions games to M&M games offered at Gencon or Origins. I don't know whether there are more current M&M players or Champions players- off the top of my head, I'd bet it's too close to call.

 

And I'm sure your Alliance buddy will confirm my telling you that 70-80% or so of all the sales you're going to get of an RPG in this market come in the first 3-5 months. If M&M wasn't outselling our twentieth Champions book by a bunch, they should be very worried.

 

And sure, d20 fantasy outsells Fantasy Hero- we've certainly never claimed otherwise. d20 outsells *everything.* We've sold a lot more pulp and sci-fi than they have, too, since they don't have any products in those lines. I don't know exactly what GR as a company will do for sales this year, but I'll bet it comes within, say, 20% on either side of our figures- we're about the same size as a company. dw

[MitchellS]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

but that hardly means M&M has driven Champions out of the market. Compare' date=' for example, the number of Champions games to M&M games offered at Gencon or Origins.[/quote']

I never said any such thing here. All I said was that M&M sales were up and that Hero's sales were down. I never inferred that Hero's sales were down due to M&M. I've stated my own theories as to why Hero sales are down in other threads and none of them have to do with M&M driving Champions out of the market.

[Darren Watts]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

I never said any such thing here. All I said was that M&M sales were up and that Hero's sales were down. I never inferred that Hero's sales were down due to M&M. I've stated my own theories as to why Hero sales are down in other threads and none of them have to do with M&M driving Champions out of the market.

 

I was responding to your claim of the 20:1 ratio. I don't think suggesting that M&M now has 95% of the market is unfairly categorized as being driven out of the market. dw

[MitchellS]

Re: Simplification of Combat

 

I was responding to your claim of the 20:1 ratio. I don't think suggesting that M&M now has 95% of the market is unfairly categorized as being driven out of the market. dw

Fair enough, but I believe my point was that M&M players are buying product as quickly as it can be produced whereas Hero players seemed to have slowed their purchasing of Hero products. That had nothign to do with being forced out but rather not inspiring your existing fans to purchase your product as vehemently as they had in the past. Your Hero fan-base is still here. It's just not buying as much as it once did.