Is Hero too preditable?

[Dust Raven]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

Which changes nothing about what I said. I'm not talking about maxing out your roll -- I was discussing the amount of variation (net' date=' not as a percentage) that you will see. Since you don't average your numbers in Hero, there's very little point in saying that your percentage variation is less and less the more dice you roll -- it's the raw numbers that count, and they will vary by ever-increasing amounts.[/quote']

 

How would the raw numbers count? In the contect of the game, we don't ever deal with raw numbers.

 

If your roll will typically vary by around 50 points when you increase the number of dice by a factor of 10, how does that matter when you also increase the typical DEF and STUN fof the target by the same amount?

 

If you roll 10d6 for an average of 35 against an average DEF of 25, you'll do an average of 10 STUN per hit. This may vary, typically, by 10 points in either direction, so you'll be doing between 0 and 20 points to the target. Assuming an average STUN of 40, you'll be doing anywhere from nothing to to half the target's STUN with an average result of one forth.

 

x10 everything. 100d6 has an average of 350, but doesn't have a typical spread between 250 and 450. It's more like 320 to 380. Against the average x10 DEF (250) and x10 STUN (400) this leaves an average result of 100 STUN (1/4 total, as above) but a spread of only 70 to 130 STUN after defenses.

 

Sure, the difference between 130 and 70 is larger than the difference between 25 and 45, but not when you bring in the other factors of the game. The game play difference makes the "larger spread" give a more predictable final result.

[tesuji]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

But there is this happy little rule that a 20 always succeeds anda 1 always fails. And this is regardless of skill.

 

 

Again, for many versions of D20, like DnD, that is for attacks against defending targets.

 

Skills have no such rule, normally.

 

That rule is there to provide for the unpredictability of COMBAT against active adversaries or when you are under the gun yourself.

 

That doesn't seem all that out of whack, in that context.

 

For skills, typically you do not have any autofail or autosucceed. Whether you do or don't is simply a mqtter of the DC, your bonuses and your roll and a 1 can still succeed and a 20 can still fail.

 

Out of combat/strees, you can even take-10 and take-20 to avoid the dice and their unpredictability entirely.

 

Again, doesn't seem that out of whack.

 

A guy who can pick a lock tuesday can pick the same lock wednesday, unless on wednesday someone is shooting at him while he is trying it.

 

However, as already stated, some OGL games and maybe some oddball D20 ones do have added elements like Crits/errors on skill checks and some of them might have a 1 always succeeds and a 20 always wins but As i don't own everything d20 i cannot be certain.

[tesuji]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

1) Which do you find more fun: rolling dice, or role-playing? If he answers rolling dice, suggest he play Yatzee.

 

uhh.. Ok but remember, the complaint is that he rolls MORE dice in HERO than in whatever "other game" he prefers. So if you are going to put role playing up as in either/or to "rolling dice" then you are driving the "prefers roleplaying" AWAY FROM HERO... as HERO means more dice to him.

 

Now that may be your intent but if not, perhaps this approach should be reconsidered?

[archermoo]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

uhh.. Ok but remember, the complaint is that he rolls MORE dice in HERO than in whatever "other game" he prefers. So if you are going to put role playing up as in either/or to "rolling dice" then you are driving the "prefers roleplaying" AWAY FROM HERO... as HERO means more dice to him.

 

Now that may be your intent but if not, perhaps this approach should be reconsidered?

 

Actually unless I'm misreading the initial post the complaint was that once you start rolling lots of dice that it becomes to predictable. Not that he doesn't like rolling lots of dice.

[Eosin]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

A note of interest.

 

Reading several of the designers notes and some of the R&D for d20 – their opinion is thus: the more variable a system the more likely that a TPK is the outcome. Players receive an inordinate number of attacks on them (opposed to a mook who gets a whack and dies), this dramatically ups the odds that the dice will play against the PCs rather than for them. This reasoning factored into crits and into the progression of attacks, saves, and damage. If you take a quick look-see under the hood of d20 by about 7-10th level the die to modifier number flips and the bulk of your success is dependant on those modifiers…. i.e. at 8th level the fighter has +14 to hit and does 1d8+10 to damage…… The die continue to decrease in significance as the level goes up. Hero System is already build this way to a large degree, particularly when it comes to damage. Dice level out with averages and it is significantly harder to break the curve with 10d6 than it is with 2 or 3 d6.

 

Predictability is a player and game survival factor. The less of it there is, the more likely a game will meet an abrupt outcome.

 

PS – This is why the Stun Lotto is constantly bemoaned. IMO

[Blue Jogger]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

I recently had a friend say to me he thought that Hero was no fun because once you start rollilng a lot of dice, the outcome was too predictable. In other words, 10 dice is usually pretty close to 35 points.

 

Obviously, the more dice you roll, the closer to the mean you will tend to roll. But, I for one like the excitment of rolling lots of damage dice and counting up to the high number.

 

I have given what he said a lot of thought and wondered if he might have been looking for the "crit on 20" sort of thing, where players get the excitement of rolling again.

 

What are people's thoughts on this?

 

 

Actually, if you want less predictability start buying the high end with Activation Rolls. Like this:

 

6D6 Energy Blast

+4D6 Energy Blast, Activation 11-

+4D6 Energy Blast, Activation 8-

 

Now, you'll have at least 6 dice all of time, 10 dice 50% of the time, and 14 dice 25% of the time.

This works out to be cheaper than 10 dice, but you will have to suffer with ONLY 6 dice, 25% of the time.

[tesuji]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

Actually unless I'm misreading the initial post the complaint was that once you start rolling lots of dice that it becomes to predictable. Not that he doesn't like rolling lots of dice.

 

Ok so its not that he doesn't like rolling more dice, its just that he dislikes what happens when he rolls more dice.

 

I still don't see where pitting rolling dice vs roleplaying moves him towards the game where rolling more dice is what he expects there as op[posed to away from it.

[coolie]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

Look man, I have been a dm and I remember the first time I met the loophole player, they find a loophole and exploit it, all games have them and against a player like that its unavoidable, there are certain things you can do to make a game exciting, and Alex, a really good DM frien of mine said he played a really cool game in which the DM took normals, no powers, no real advantages, and found a way to get the players. He did it with mass quantities of villians all bent to take down the heroes at any cost. Also, in my games I like to mix it up a little, instead of focusing on obvious combat try this, create a villian who is not very pysically strong, maybe give the villian no powers at all, give that criminal or villian a high intelligence, I have done this twice already, then build a campaign in which the villian is the actual friend of the character, I mean don't make it obvious, make the villian very appealling, then drive into the character a form of trust, I mean have the villian as an NPC type, kind of like a free contact they gained in the game. Then let the villian have a belief, something that both the player and the players character would believe in, then have cool adventures, then bam, unpredictable concept which works in any roleplaying game. Don't do it to soon, I have had a really cool game because the character giving away the plans to the major villian in my game was his characters closest friend in the game, he kinda did not want to play anymore. I know u r talking more in terms of the system itself being predictable. hold on let me read the post again, for a different kind of awnser.

[coolie]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

If you want to balance things out heres another thing u can do. Its tedious but its worked for me in Mayfairs DC game.take the characters in your game and calculate the point values, then find where those point values are actually spent and make villians who are there equal or just a tad better. Also, look at what they have. If they are slow, put them up against something with high dex. If they have a high dex, build vilians with powers who set traps before hand and make them role detection roles, if they fail they get zonked, almost as if the villian new they would dodge right and they were counting on that, make loopholes of your own and it becomes a loophole chessgame, which can actually be kind of fun.

[Dust Raven]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

...snip...

 

All I have is D&D, and I recall such a rule applying to skills. I could be wrong here, or else it's one of those other changes when they made 3.5. Dunno. You seem the larger authority having experience with other d20 games, so I'll step down from this.

[Dust Raven]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

uhh.. Ok but remember, the complaint is that he rolls MORE dice in HERO than in whatever "other game" he prefers. So if you are going to put role playing up as in either/or to "rolling dice" then you are driving the "prefers roleplaying" AWAY FROM HERO... as HERO means more dice to him.

 

Now that may be your intent but if not, perhaps this approach should be reconsidered?

 

It seemed to me that the guy didn't like Hero not because it used more dice, but because more dice meant reducing the random factor. Role-playing games, at least for me, should be more about role-playing than about rolling dice for random crap to happen.

 

Ok so its not that he doesn't like rolling more dice, its just that he dislikes what happens when he rolls more dice.

 

I still don't see where pitting rolling dice vs roleplaying moves him towards the game where rolling more dice is what he expects there as op[posed to away from it.

 

A role-playing game just uses dice as a random factor to determin a outcome based on the decisions of the characters. Most of what happens is in the direct hands of the players, not the dice. My remark about Yatzee is that if he would rather have the majority of the game be in the hands of the dice, then he might as well play a game like that (which Yatzee is, I could have easily has Monopoly or any number of other games, but I like Yatzee myself, when I'm in that kind of mood).

[tesuji]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

All I have is D&D' date=' and I recall such a rule applying to skills. I could be wrong here, or else it's one of those other changes when they made 3.5. Dunno. You seem the larger authority having experience with other d20 games, so I'll step down from this.[/quote']

 

Actually, neither 3.0 or 3.5 had such a rule for SKILLS. It applied to combat rolls (attack rolls) only.

 

Now, I seem to recall there being disagreement over whether it also applied to saving throws and that may have changed between 3.0 and 3.5 since they seemed to flip-flop about it.

[tesuji]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

 

It seemed to me that the guy didn't like Hero not because it used more dice, but because more dice meant reducing the random factor. Role-playing games, at least for me, should be more about role-playing than about rolling dice for random crap to happen.

We don't really disagree on this. I just don't see these as things you choose between, as an either/or, but in both cases as independent of each other ranges. I can roleplay my character, have him make decisions based on his personality and experience, and still have the determination of success /fail at certain actions be more random or less random regardless.

 

For example, i can play a WILD TALENT mage who has very unprecictable magic spells with frequent side effects and activation rolls for the level of power and rolls for how much endurance they suck and so on and so forth and role play that guy just fine even though a lot of his "results" are determined highly randomly.

 

I can also play a serious mage academic who takes extra time and never makes a roll for magic and never suffers side effects and role play him just fine too, regardless of the fact that his results are entirely predictable.

 

Role-playing is not at odds with unpredictability or increased randomness of results.

 

That said, I disagree with his initial premise that HERo is more predictable than say DND. I mean, when i roll a 10d6 fireball in either system, its the same and once you get down to just comparing the d20 to the 3d6 its going to be the DC that sets the predictability more than anything else.

A role-playing game just uses dice as a random factor to determin a outcome based on the decisions of the characters. Most of what happens is in the direct hands of the players, not the dice.

OK

My remark about Yatzee is that if he would rather have the majority of the game be in the hands of the dice, then he might as well play a game like that (which Yatzee is, I could have easily has Monopoly or any number of other games, but I like Yatzee myself, when I'm in that kind of mood).

Yeah, the only thing is, the guy didn't say he wanted the majority of the game to be in the hands of the dice. You have gone to an extreme.

 

All he said was it was "too predictable" and thats a far sight removed from the majority of the control being in the dice.

 

truth be told, how predictable HERo is really comes down to genre and campaign more than anything else. Do your typical spells run with normal damage (more dice, more predictable) or with killing damage (fewer dice with more impact and stun lotto)? What level of competence do the PCs play at?

[Mentor]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

I am still rather surprised by the number of posts which have determined the predictability of the Hero systme based on the dice rolled. The player rolling 10D6 averaging 35 points of STUN damage neither determines how much damage will penetrate defenses, given the variables of PDvs ED attack and the respective PD/ED of the target. The liklihood of hitting the target is based on the character construction of the attacker and defender as well as actions being taken by both. Range and skill levels also are part of this equation.

 

Thus for Hero to be as predictable as detractors think, one must assume that the attacker always hits and all defenders have the same defense.

[Eosin]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

Thus for Hero to be as predictable as detractors think' date=' one must assume that the attacker always hits and all defenders have the same defense.[/quote']

 

I think that goes without saying. Just like a d20 example could be a dagger against a foe with -/10 DR... nothing says he hits or penetrates the defenses.

 

More to the point ~ Predictibility is a good thing in game design at in as much as nearly every professional designer ascribes to its benefits and derides too much varibility.

[Rapier]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

I don't think much of any RPGs are predictable. Well, I mean it depends on how you define predictable. Its easy to predict:

 

- Going insane in Cthulu

- Getting screwed by your friends in Paranoia

- Getting silly in Toon

 

But the general eb and flow of dice rolls? What a putz (and you can tell him I called him that)! When it comes down to it, while an increasing sample will tend to hit the average of 3.5, rolling 10 or 12 dice is still not much of a sample to push the average to an unsurprising median.

 

If you are rolling 100 or 1000 dice, yes, the total rolled is not going to be that surprising...you've got a very large sample. When rolling 10, 12 or even 15 or 18 dice, the sample is simply not large enough to throw the curve.

 

Methinks he doth protest too much.

[Dust Raven]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

We don't really disagree on this. I just don't see these as things you choose between, as an either/or, but in both cases as independent of each other ranges. I can roleplay my character, have him make decisions based on his personality and experience, and still have the determination of success /fail at certain actions be more random or less random regardless.

 

For example, i can play a WILD TALENT mage who has very unprecictable magic spells with frequent side effects and activation rolls for the level of power and rolls for how much endurance they suck and so on and so forth and role play that guy just fine even though a lot of his "results" are determined highly randomly.

 

I can also play a serious mage academic who takes extra time and never makes a roll for magic and never suffers side effects and role play him just fine too, regardless of the fact that his results are entirely predictable.

 

Role-playing is not at odds with unpredictability or increased randomness of results.

 

That said, I disagree with his initial premise that HERo is more predictable than say DND. I mean, when i roll a 10d6 fireball in either system, its the same and once you get down to just comparing the d20 to the 3d6 its going to be the DC that sets the predictability more than anything else

It's hard to compare. D&D is as predictable or unpredictable as it is, and there is nothing to do about it. You either play it that way or you don't play it. With Hero System, you can set the prediticability level by allowing or disallowing Complimentary Skills, using or not using Activation Roll/RSR Limitations and whether or not Standard Effect is used. Hero can be more predictable, or less predictable as the players see fit.

 

But this is really here nor there I suppose.

 

OK

 

Yeah, the only thing is, the guy didn't say he wanted the majority of the game to be in the hands of the dice. You have gone to an extreme.

Yes I have. I like to exagerate. It's fun and makes people run in terror of what someone might have meant.

 

All he said was it was "too predictable" and thats a far sight removed from the majority of the control being in the dice.

I know. It's why I suggesting asking him. Exagerate I do, but I don't know this guy from Adam.

 

truth be told, how predictable HERo is really comes down to genre and campaign more than anything else. Do your typical spells run with normal damage (more dice, more predictable) or with killing damage (fewer dice with more impact and stun lotto)? What level of competence do the PCs play at?

[Trebuchet]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

I recently had a friend say to me he thought that Hero was no fun because once you start rollilng a lot of dice, the outcome was too predictable. In other words, 10 dice is usually pretty close to 35 points.

 

Obviously, the more dice you roll, the closer to the mean you will tend to roll. But, I for one like the excitment of rolling lots of damage dice and counting up to the high number.

 

I have given what he said a lot of thought and wondered if he might have been looking for the "crit on 20" sort of thing, where players get the excitement of rolling again.

 

What are people's thoughts on this?

I don't even see how your friend could have reached such a conclusion about Hero. Even were Hero system combats nothing more than simply standing and blasting/hitting each other until one opponent or the other falls over it would not be all that predictable. Any character can:

 

Attack

Move

Block

Dodge

Dive for Cover

Grab

Throw

Disarm

Brace

Set

Push

Haymaker

Hold Action

Abort

 

Then the number of possible attacks with different Powers is quite large - Flash, RKA/HKA, EB, Transform, Change Environment, Ego Blast, etc. Start adding in various Advantages like NND, AP, PEN, AVLD, AOE, EX, and counters like Flash Defense, Mental Defense, Power Defense, Hardening. CON, STUN, and defenses increase the variations further. The number of possible permutations is practically infinite; and we haven't even discussed SPD or mobility differences.

 

Yes, if you define combat solely as "I shoot him with my 10d6 EB" then there might be grounds to say it's predictable. But I've never seen an actual Champions battle done that way.

[Rick]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

I'm sure how predictablity is a deterent to roleplaying. Considering that players spend points on these abilities a little predictability is a bonus. Besides if you want randomness gamble, go to vegas. Sorry for the dig but it seems like a very odd complaint. In regards to PC doing the same thing over and over again, well that sounds like the PC is predictable, the system has little to do with that.

[Dust Raven]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

Something just occurred to me. Maybe we're all coming at this from the wrong side of the fence. We're all Hero System fans, right? One of the reason's we like Hero System is that we can just spend out points and get exactly what we want? We don't randomly roll our stats or randomly roll on some chart to see how many of what types of powers we get.

 

Maybe these players of other system actually like that kinda thing. I can even see how throwing something completely random might be fun and challenging to play.

 

Then again, once play starts, I think I'd rather have a good idea of what's likely to happen when Mr. Powerful starts lobbing Uberbeams at everybody. It'd be ridiculous to jump right out in the hopes that the damage is rolled low, or live in fear of high roll when your stats are down.

 

Besides, no one ever in fiction ever says: "One more hit like that and we're finished... unless it's an unlucky shot that does little damage."

[Barton]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

At RockCon I played a DC comic RPG game. I HATED the system, the GM was rather good but the mechanics were VERY random. It uses a D6 like system with a "wildcard die" (I think that is what they called it). If you rolled a 1 it was a miss NO matter what and a 6 was a hit no matter what. I found 16% change of critical failure or of critical success was too large. It leads to random unpredicitable combat. Mooks could easly hit a superhero, while sometimes the supers could not hit the street-level mooks. IMHO that is not in genre. So is HERO predicitable, yes to an extent, but as a I GM I like that that. It makes making villians easier, I can predict to some extent the outcome of battles and not have to worry too much about under or over powering my players's opponents.

[Agent X]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

Not using a bell curve for damage classes could be a bit problematic if you are using autofire attacks, rapid fire attacks, and the like.

 

There is a reason why I think any Munchkin worth his salt should understand the wonderful(?) exploits one can make of autofire 3 rkas.

[casualplayer]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

Damage swings mightily in HERO. More dice means a greater range of results with a predictable mean. If you don't like the buzzkill that happens when you score a beauty Hit Roll and crap out on damage, you could do what I do. I roll and track all damage in my games (END too.) If I don't think the damage roll is appropriate to the situation and the Hit Roll, I fudge it. Of course I track HPs in d20 games also. Play the game, not the system.

[Dust Raven]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

Damage swings mightily in HERO. More dice means a greater range of results with a predictable mean. If you don't like the buzzkill that happens when you score a beauty Hit Roll and crap out on damage' date=' you could do what I do. I roll and track all damage in my games (END too.) If I don't think the damage roll is appropriate to the situation and the Hit Roll, I fudge it. Of course I track HPs in d20 games also. Play the game, not the system.[/quote']

 

I use a "critical" hit rule that turns low numbers rolled on individual dice to higher numbers depending on how good the roll was. A roll of 5 turns all ones into twos, and roll of 4 turns all ones and twos into threes and a roll of 3 turns all ones twos and threes into fours.

[zornwil]

Re: Is Hero too preditable?

 

I think this is a good point. If you want to emphasis role-playing' date=' a stable sysstem is the way to go.[/quote']

I don't think that follows, I think there's a lot of ways to reward roleplaying in systems which have wide variance in outcomes (which I substitute for "non-stable" since that's not quite the same as saying the system isn't stable).

 

That being said, the issue of predictability is, as has been said, a matter of taste and what sort of play experience the system is promoting. HERO promotes a fairly notable level of predictability, although by the same token I have seen many people complain it's not predictable enough, even, with answers varying in degree from "just hand-wave where it's dramatically correct" to using standard effect.

 

I don't think there's a one-size-fits-all. Deadlands was highly unpredictable and IMHO one of the best games ever designed - for what it did. Savage Worlds promotes much higher unpredictability in damage/degree of an outcome (not so much actual probability of success) than HERO. I personally think that for more over-the-top adventure, a 2d10 curve works well. And so on. But I also think that any number of probability curves for damage and success can work, just depends on the game.

 

Anyway, yes, HERO is more predictable, and for the level of heroism it tends to work best with, I think this is okay. It's also easy enough to fix without undue tweaking.