Iuz the Evil

I managed to maintain my skepticism until the music played. I’m in, let’s do this… 

It’ll be interesting to see what can be accomplished in the lame duck session remaining. Probably the debt ceiling, maybe electoral college protections, maybe Manchin’s energy bill. There’s talk about attaching some desired legislative action to bills that have already passed the House (firearms regulation, DACA reform) but I think that’s a mistake. Probably would kill the items they want to pass, don’t see much incentive for the Republicans to play along and it’ll probably result in dead bills. They should, in my opinion, get as much as they can out of this before what’s likely a period of gridlock.

Which won’t bother me much, at this point. Better than I’d hoped and maybe it’ll compel some compromise and civility. 
 

…

Ha!

8 minutes ago, Hermit said:

Benedict Donald is running again. Dammit.

 

I don't think this is the best news the democrats can get. I really don't. This guy is poison and yet still has far too large a chunk of the American population following him like cultists. Only this time he's got 'his people' planted deeper than before, and the Supreme Court has at least one judge whose wife is so deep into supporting the Jan 6 riots its scary.  Every time in 2016, folks were like 'oh now Trump goes down' or 'Trump will never win the primaries... and every time, he didn't. And he won the primary, and the democrats patted themselves on the back because how could ANYONE vote for this clown.

 

And they did vote for him. And the Electoral College got him the win. I know Desantis is smarter than Trump. It's not about smart. It's about worship of a man who is the golden calf incarnate. Everytime the liberals assume Trump is done, they end up paying a price and Trump is still untouched. He lost the presidency, and we thought 'thank god that's over' only for Jan 6 sedition to start up over the great lie, people died, and hey.. .Trump's still free from bars for his sedition, and 61% of registered Republicans still believe the votes were rigged or 'may have been'. They're not going to change their mind in 2 years. And Trump will use his run in 2024 to say any legal action brought against him is just a political stunt.

 

And now he's running again, and so many voices are clapping with glee like 'oh well, stick a fork in him , he's done THIS time'

 

I am so tired of watching that mindset bite us in the ass.

I think we need to start wanting the opposition party to, well, be better. Run better candidates. Not Walker, Oz, Trump. More moderation, less cult like behavior.

 While I’m wishing, why don’t we move towards civility while we are at it? And hey, what’s the lottery at now?

 Anyway, I too want to never see him run for office again. Trump is, exactly as you say, poison. He’s absolutely willing to put himself before the very institutions he swears to uphold. We need less of that in public service.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-considering-nato-article-4-activation-says-spokesman-2022-11-15/
 

Poland invoking article 4 is a very measured response. They hate Russia with the white hot passion of a thousand suns.

13 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

 

Republican ads that I saw hit defund the police and stop the steal.  Early release was another.  Inflation of course, but Ronchetti's ads made the mistake, IMO, of tying back to the Covid shutdowns.  That doesn't play with a fair number of Republicans who DID get vaccinated.  Democratic ads hit abortion a LOT;  it was probably the most used theme.  

 

The other study is the success rate of Trump-endorsed candidates, especially those who a) pushed the steal, and b) were political novices.  Stories I've seen...that was a particularly bad combination.  In many cases, even when the candidates won, they did so by lesser margins than, say, the governor's race in the state, by significant margins.  

 

The focus is on the Republicans because historically, this should have been a slam-dunk for them.  Off-year elections go to the party not in the White House.  Biden's ratings are fairly low.  Inflation's been HIGH, which should be a massive Republican selling point.  Violence and crime have been on the upswing, big time...another Republican drum.  Yes, they played on them somewhat, but not nearly as much as they could have, at least that I saw.  

If the Republicans lost this election, rather than Democrats winning it, that isn’t necessarily a great position to be in moving forward. Very fickle electorate, and need to find some broadly popular positions moving forward or that’ll flip at some point.

 You cannot control the behavior of your political adversary, although you can benefit from it. You can control your own party behavior to a much greater extent. From a strategy perspective, I hope they’re focusing on what worked for Democratic candidates more than the media is.

It’s interesting to see so much focus on why Republicans lost, rather than why Democrats won, in their elections. I agree the number of egregious missteps by the GOP including their crazy push for broadly unpopular anti abortion legislation (terrible move) following the SCOTUS ruling and Donald Trump himself were bigly responsible for the Senate outcome. I also would hope the more crazy candidates were repudiated, but that’s turning out to be a mixed bag. 
 

Read an article that the Democrats this cycle focused on issues that resonated with peoples daily life while the Republicans focused on “stop the steal” type conspiracy theories and the cult of Trump personality. I would like to know more about the specifics of that, as it might help with planning for future cycles.

Actually, objectively yes.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/official-ncaa-recognizes-ucfs-national-championship-record-book-234835087.html

 I personally find the claim ludicrous, it is nevertheless recognized even as an outlier. They’re allowed to claim it, and do so. They do not require fan agreement. I’ll let this go for now, as it seems to be aggravating folks to the point where they are making irrelevant and ad hominem attacks on the relative strength of other teams related to this issue.

 The point remains, no power 5 conference champion who is undefeated has ever been passed over. Only non P5 undefeated teams have during the college playoff.

The point is not that they won either of those times, although both schools still claim that they did (and that UCF title is recognized by the NCAA), but rather that those scenarios represent the worst nightmare of the committee. They do not want ambiguity, and certainly don’t like the articles which arose both times questioning the legitimacy of LSU and Clemson’s titles. UCF got left out because they’re not a P5 conference, it’ll be unthinkable to pass up TCU if they win out. Would utterly undermine the legitimacy of their process, rendering it even more of a beauty pageant.

 If they lose a game, they’re done. Even as a conference champion, they won’t select TCU with a loss. If they win out it’ll tie their hands, with regard to selection. The committee cares about the appearance of the process, it’s really all they have.

 Edit: I looked it up, only five teams have been passed over for the playoff and they’ve NEVER passed over a p5 school with an unbeaten record. Coastal Carolina, UCF (twice), Western Michigan, San Jose State and Cincinnati.

Talk to UCF about that. Or USC. Both had rings, victory parades and hang a banner for a year they didn’t play in the title game. That’s just the last twenty years.

 People can talk crap about it, they’ll still claim it if they do go undefeated and get left out. Just like USC and UCF.

I think they’d be very hesitant to do that with an undefeated conference champion. That’ll potentially give you a split title (with an AP or other champion), and the committee is dead set against that. 
 

It’s almost impossible to conceive that they’d pass over undefeated in a P5 conference for a one loss non conference champion. They might as will just give up any pretense at that point games and records matter. They want to maintain that illusion at all costs.

 On the plus side, in that scenario, if TCU wins their bowl game they’ll hang a national champion banner in their stadium.

The SEC team that doesn’t even make the conference title is not likely to go in the event their up against an undefeated P5 conference champion. One loss? Sure.

 Of course, is prohibitively unlikely you have 4 undefeated conference champions at the end of the season…

3 hours ago, Grailknight said:

 

Clemson and Michigan are ahead of TCU because of reputation and preseason rankings. TCU is the team that looks like it's going to be the loser in all this as they will have a hard time getting in over a one loss log jam of Ohio State/Michigan/Illinois(B1G Champion), Tennessee/Georgia/Alabama or even Oregon/USC/UCLA. They need to win out to even be sure of topping a one loss Clemson/North Carolina duo in the ACC though they'd probably get in over NC.

If they win out, they’re in. No loss conference champion won’t be left out, but if they drop a game it’s all over.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/31/rise-in-political-violence-in-united-states-and-damage-to-our-democracy-pub-87584
 

This underscores my many, many earlier assertions that violence is unacceptable as a means of asserting political positions. Advocating violence is likewise unacceptable. It is a direct attack on our democracy and the rule of law.

TCU remains undefeated. OU needs one more win for bowl eligibility, which seems achievable. Today was a good progress day for the defense. (Thank God)

I tend to view representation for its own sake, without good writing or story, as just our latest societal efforts at tokenism. It’s also just bad business, hard to sell an inferior product. People mostly want to be entertained, and these media are industries designed for that. When they lose sight of that, or patronize their audience, it never seems to end well.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/26/politics/kevin-mccarthy-house-gop-ukraine-funding-blank-check/index.html
 

Good. It’s nice to see them manage their own (for a change).

I want a more hopeful and optimistic DCU. When I’m hopeful, Gunn moves us in that direction. When I’m not it is mistakenly equating optimism and inspiration with comedy (admittedly easier to pull off).

20 minutes ago, Old Man said:

 

A couple of weeks ago I came to the realization that we can ship trainloads of cash to the MIC without any of it getting to Ukraine.  And I expect that this is what will happen if the GOP gets hold of either house of Congress in January.

That’s possible, I’m sure there’s plenty of funding not getting where it’s going right now for “reasons”. The MIC gets theirs no matter what. We do have plenty of evidence currently about the effectiveness of HIMARS and other newer generation weaponry though, so some of it is getting through. Maybe half? Less?

I can live with that for the same reason I don’t get worked up around various climate change investments that fail to bear fruit. Price of progress and I care about the policy being advanced. 
 

I’d cheerfully endorse another $50 billion in aid. Russia is an aggressor state with nuclear weapons and sponsor of state terror. Basically the bogeyman that we’ve been making out middle eastern nations to be for decades, but for real. Thwarting their ambitions is imperative. While we bicker about internal politics, however important the subjects, they’re actually engaged in mass murder on an international scale. 
 

It’s my most important current international issue. Global warming is right up there, but that’s harder to solve with munitions. This plays to our strengths, so solve the problem already and give ‘em the tools to defend themselves.

edit: and in todays “<expletive> around and find out” an Iranian colonel who was reportedly supplying drones to the Russians got assassinated. Guess the Israelis or we didn’t care for that. Can’t provide the link because graphic images. Here’s a different one: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rferl.org/amp/iran-death-irgc-colonel-raises-eyebrows/31882315.html

Could be unrelated, lots of unrest in Iran right now.

2 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

 

Quite a few people on the Right in the US today, especially among politicians and media pundits, appear enamored with Putin's Russia. I get the impression that his dictatorial style, alliance with big business and religion, and disdain for non-Russian ethnic groups, homosexuals, the rural poor, and other marginalized people, are things they want to see translated to America.

Definitely some of that going on, reminds me of Lindbergh and other pro Fascism elements during WW2. I would not overestimate the devotion those folks have to Putin personally though, any foreign dictator will do. I believe Ergodan is their latest fetish, and while he’s playing this for personal gain and is certainly personally detestable, he’s on the side of NATO in this one.

 I don’t count on the Republican even in foreign intervention these days to pick the right side. I do expect the Democrats to do so, thereby affirming my choice to vote for them. The other guys have lost that.

6 minutes ago, Pattern Ghost said:

We really don't need boots on the ground to end this. Ukraine can supply that, since they're the defenders. What we need is to use our massive air power advantage to obliterate anything Russia attempts to throw at Ukraine. But we won't do it, because Russia might have functioning nukes. (Note the "functioning" qualifier: they haven't shown much of a penchant for equipment maintenance.)

 

I strongly suspect that Russia would fold under direct military intervention from the US, but I'm not so sure they wouldn't start something nuclear in retaliation. The whole situation reminds me of the old Sid Meier's Civilization (first version) video game, where once a country had nukes, every diplomatic interaction ended in "Our words are backed by nuclear weapons!"

 

 

I think direct boots on the ground military intervention is a terrible idea. This is an almost perfect opportunity for a proxy war, and the Ukrainians are not only willing they’re grateful for the opportunity. And I do not see any wavering in their resolution, nor has Russia given them any reason to show a lack of resolve (quite the contrary - targeting civilians, bombing infrastructure and engaging in terror tactics only makes the locals hate you more).

I am thinking if we stop providing the conventional weaponry, the Ukrainians are likely to continue their resistance. Not sure why we think we’d get a vote on their national integrity, after all. But it’ll get a lot worse without Western backing for the defenders, and easier for Russia. No idea why we’d want that.

47 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

 

I listened to an online commentator who pointed out that McConnell tends to take the long view politically. In the future, as technology moves us away from fossil fuels while global warming starts changing our environment, wars won't be fought over oil, but over food. Russia and Ukraine are two of the world's biggest grain producers, but Russia is hostile to the West and looks to be heading for failed-state status, while Ukraine is a Western-friendly democracy which will probably emerge from this conflict as the strongest state in Eastern Europe. It's in America's long-term interest to stay on Ukraine's good side.

All of that, and Kentucky has Lockheed Martin, BAE, Northrop Grumman, and a Department of Defense hub. Mitch is all about military spending, this philosophically aligns with his decades long approach, and it’s certainly in our national security interest. I don’t see him bailing on that issue.

1 hour ago, Old Man said:

 

The Congressional Progressive Caucus yesterday released a statement calling for a diplomatic solution to the war.  It was perceived as undercutting support for Ukraine and the backlash was strong enough that they retracted it today.

 

Last week the House GOP leader made a statement that, if the GOP takes one or both houses of Congress, there will be strings attached to future support for Ukraine--if there is any support at all.   "There will be no 'blank check'", etc.  There was zero backlash from his party or GOP voters, nor from the conservative media that have been openly pro-Russia from the very beginning.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/shows/maddow/blog/rcna53666

Not entirely accurate, there’s definitely conflict in the GOP on that statement by McCarthy (notably from well known GOP asshat McConnell).

10 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

Define "we".  One major U.S. party is already on record as intending to stop aid to Ukraine.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/senate/3696451-gop-leaders-mcconnell-mccarthy-headed-for-collision-on-ukraine-aid/amp/
 

It would be more accurate to say one party is conflicted on continued aid. I agree the GOP is not to be trusted on this issue, but defunding Ukraine military aid is not an official position at this point for them.

And by “we” I mean the Democratic Party, who I’m registered as a member of. Who are also beginning to waffle in their more wildly progressive membership. If both parties falter… well United States assistance would be pretty limited at that point. I obviously can’t count on the Republicans to fund anything but investigations into the role of Jewish Space Lasers around Kharkiv.

 Be nice if someone kept their resolve on this one.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/24/politics/congress-democrats-reaction-ukraine-strategy/index.html
 

I hope that we maintain our resolve on this issue. Russia illegally invaded Ukraine and are guilty of numerous war crimes, many of which are too horrific to describe on this Board. They’ve terrorized and murdered, and are doing their level best to eradicate the very concept of a Ukrainian people.

We do not have boots on the ground, this is money well spent for our National interest in my opinion. Putin will not stop at Ukraine, he’s resolute in the desire to recreate the USSR. This may be the biggest positive foreign policy accomplishment of this administration if they succeed in blunting those ambitions.

If TCU actually somehow goes undefeated and wins the Big XII, they are in the CFP. Zero chance an undefeated P5 conference champion gets left out, it is unimaginable. They drop a game, all bets are off.