Sociotard

There is one other long-term support the West needs to offer: denazification. Ukraine doesn't have much more of an antisemitism problem than Russia. At the same time, I am worried about the Azov Battalion. They're the far-right ultranationalist neo nazi group holed up in that Mariupol steel plant. Their heroic last stand has been winning them a lot of good press and admiration. I am worried about a future where the neo nazis replace Zelensky in the next peacetime election. Or a future where Zelensky feels compelled to plunge Ukraine back towards the autocratic end of the spectrum to prevent them coming to power. Or a future where good nazi press gets them better recruitment and blind eyes to any loose Javelins they pocket, and then they turn into nazi-flavor ISIS. So maybe we need to think of some ways to oppose Azov ahead of time.

a half-remembered quote: In war, first each side tries to win. Eventually, they settle for trying to lose less than the other side. Russia has lost less than Ukraine, at least in terms of what it can afford to lose, at least in relative terms. War isn't about getting something, it is about losing. You start hoping you win, and you end just hoping not to lose too much. XP is an interesting question. Russia only gets XP if they take the lessons of this war and wind up doing something different. A lot of countries are trying to learn something from this war.

NATO could confidently repel any Russian invasion. That seems a bit different from "put down". You aren't envisioning NATO troops crossing the border?

I disagree. Russia won't conquer Ukraine, but Ukraine can't win. Their best case scenario is spending the next 50 years rebuilding, while the refugee diaspora decides when and if to come home. Russia might have a recession, maybe even a bad one, but they haven't lost that. By any honest metric, they have lost less than Ukraine. Yes, they lost more tanks, but that's meaningless because they had way more tanks to lose. The only thing they really lost was international respect, and they don't care. And that's the best case scenario. The worst case is Ukraine loses the Donbas and the land bridge, and they watch Mariupol get renamed Putingrad.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-russias-biggest-chemical-plant-26767453 Russia's biggest chemical plant burns down in a mysterious fire. The same day another mysterious fire burned down a weapons R&D facility in Tver. The Black Sea is just rough all over, ain't it Vlady. And, just to wipe the smirk off my face, here is an insightful rebuke from Stephen Fry. If the West wanted to help Ukraine, and not just draw out the war and funnel money to Raytheon, it should just start gas rationing. Remember the pandemic, and the price of a barrel of oil went negative for a bit? Do that to Putin. We're funding him new tanks faster than we're sending Ukraine javelins.

I'd rather the 1000 marines in Mariupol hadn't had to surrender than seen the warship sunk. *sigh* Edit: this does brighten my day, the Moskva was THE Russian warship that called on Snake Island to surrender. Russian warship has f***ed itself.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/04/11/they-did-everything-possible-and-impossible-ukrainian-marines-in-mariupol-are-out-of-ammo/ Ugh, this is awful. Edit: https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-media-airs-its-ultimate-revenge-plan-for-2024-us-presidential-elections “When things thaw out and the presidential race for 2024 is firmly on the agenda, there’ll be moments we can use,” he added. “The most banal approach I can think of is to invite Trump—before he announces he’s running for President—to some future summit in liberated Mariupol.” The last thing I want is for Mariupol to fall, but if it does, I hope this happens.

True. Though it would be badass if William started flying helicopters down there.

I'm actually impressed with Boris Johnson for going to Kyiv. I know he's mostly trying to put down his Covid party scandal, but it is still an impressive move.

It's also frustrating because it makes it hard to point out that Ukraine does have an antisemitism problem. They elected a Jewish president just like the US elected a black president while still having a racism problem. I looked it up. https://global100.adl.org/map Ukraine 38% Russia 30% USA 9% Which I guess tells me Russia has nearly as bad a Nazi problem as Ukraine, but 38% is pretty bad. Not as bad as Turkey or Egypt, but they do have a problem.

I'm not sure how to feel about Ukrainian civilians violating assorted rules of war. Russian Troops Killed, Sickened By Poisoned Food From Ukraine Residents, Say Officials (msn.com) That one breaks rules going back to the Lieber code in the US Civil War. The Geneva Convention only covers poison gasses and bacteriological weapons, but rules about poisoning food are well established in customary international law. I've seen a few other videos of captured soldiers being humiliated when captured by civilians. I'm not sure how to feel about it. Civilians have no training about what the rules are, but they have been encouraged by their government to resist. Maybe it should be the Ukrainian government doing more to tell them what they are allowed to do.

Oh, I was talking about failure to finish. I don't mind polling badly

I failed so badly the last two drafts. Maybe I'll try putting together a complete list before hand.

In the first ammendment sense, yes, it is.

They are, they just weren't built for invasion. All the problems they've had go away in a defensive war. Low morale/lack of motivation? Fixed in a snap if Russia is really defending itself. Can't extend supply lines? Not an issue fighting within Russia. Massive nuclear arsenal useless in this context? It's perfect for keeping the NATO bugaboo away.

Yes

These videos are long but recommended. Evidently, his channel is normally dedicated to video games, but he seems to be well informed in his analysis.

"The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished," Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate, said in a speech. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-first-phase-ukraine-operation-mostly-complete-focus-now-donbass-2022-03-25/ Wow. The Nobel Prize in Medicine may just go to the Russian spin doctors.

The Belarusians can go in with morale intact (mostly), with their own fresh supplies and no frostbite, with no loss of confidence in their leadership from having bumbled around with no plan. After a month, they may even have a plan. Given the current state of the Russian force, a surge of fresh troops may break through.

I've been reading about the Belarusian volunteer militia, the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Battalion, that just joined on the Ukrainian side. Sometimes this feels more like a civil war; there's a good chance Belarus itself will join soon.

I think this got missed. I think we're at 'fill out the rest of your card' now? home base: Quintus Teal's Tesseract House ("And He Built a Crooked House, by Heinlein) Spaceship/Aircraft: Land Vehicle: Fractal Harness (Magic the Gathering) Water Vehicle: ranged personal weapon: melee personal weapon: other personal equipment: no material component item: Berryman Logical Image Technique aka Basilisk (BLIT by David Langford) read-only fixed-content knowledge store: Kryptonian memory crystal nonliving* robot/etc: Dkrtzy RRR inventor/artificer/gadgeteer character: free option: Goal: The Witch's Equation ("The Dreams in the Witch House" by Lovecraft)

Russia requesting help from China is only fair, as it seems this is the invasion they ordered off Wish.

Can anyone explain why the US can hand the Ukrainians thousands of Javelin missiles, but can't risk helping Poland gift its MiGs?

read-only fixed-content knowledge store: Kryptonion memory crystal

Land Vehicle: Fractal Harness (Magic the Gathering, Strixhaven set) “Fractals are just pseudo-dimensional manifestations of asynchronous biosymmetries. It’s really quite simple.” —Kianne, Quandrix dean