MLB 2023

[unclevlad]

Baseball teams are starting to clear some deadwood.

 

Yankees release Josh Donaldson.  From the Athletic:

 

Quote

The Yankees will have paid Donaldson a total of $56 million for a slash line of .207/.293/.385 with 25 home runs in 666 plate appearances. The Yankees would have been better off if they had just designated Sánchez for assignment and kept Gio Urshela, who they also traded in the deal. Instead, Donaldson’s salary hampered the Yankees’ financial flexibility and allowed Minnesota to sign Carlos Correa with their newfound room. There’s no other way to describe this deal for the Yankees other than a failure of epic proportions. 

 

They also waived Harrison Bader, who's been horrendous the last 2 months...4th worst in wRC+ since July 4th.  Good defensively, but that bat just doesn't cut it.  Plus, his free agent contract expires this season.  No loss.

 

And the Angels proved their front office is an UTTER disaster, IMO.  Or slik might say, succumbed to the inevitable.  Giolito waived.  Grichuk waived.  "Roster strengthening" moves that bombed.  3 others also waived.  Yeah, they have NO chance, with Trout out again, with no pitching at all, and with a near-impossible task...they'd have to go 24-6, .800 baseball, to reach 87 wins.  Even before this?  They were a near-lock to be closer to 6-24.

 

So they've emptied anything they might have had...again.  FanGraphs has them 29th, another site 28th.  Baseball America has them last.

 

Shohei should walk.  

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

[slikmar]

16 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Baseball teams are starting to clear some deadwood.

 

Yankees release Josh Donaldson.  From the Athletic:

 

 

They also waived Harrison Bader, who's been horrendous the last 2 months...4th worst in wRC+ since July 4th.  Good defensively, but that bat just doesn't cut it.  Plus, his free agent contract expires this season.  No loss.

 

And the Angels proved their front office is an UTTER disaster, IMO.  Or slik might say, succumbed to the inevitable.  Giolito waived.  Grichuk waived.  "Roster strengthening" moves that bombed.  3 others also waived.  Yeah, they have NO chance, with Trout out again, with no pitching at all, and with a near-impossible task...they'd have to go 24-6, .800 baseball, to reach 87 wins.  Even before this?  They were a near-lock to be closer to 6-24.

 

So they've emptied anything they might have had...again.  FanGraphs has them 29th, another site 28th.  Baseball America has them last.

 

Shohei should walk.  

Inevitable is probably correct. I don't blame them for the moves they made. They were 3 games out at the time with it seeming they were going to get Trout back within a few weeks and had lost Ward to being hit in the face by a fastball. Problem was, other then Moustakis, and solid by Leone and Lopez, NONE of the guys lived up to the backs of their cards. Then the Ohtani injury and Trout not coming back doomed them. Every one of these guys have contracts end after this season, so why not try to cut payroll and give them a shot at playoffs.

On a side thing, MLBNow and Brian Kenny have been talking about how much of your payroll can be tied up in Aircraft Carriers (their words), big money contracts - over 20+mil a year is what they use. They figure one player no more then 14% without it hurting you. If you have been watching the show at all, I think they keep missing an important part. They talk about the Angels with their trio, the Padres and all their guys, the Yankees and their 6 or so and how they are hampered in comparison to say TB or Cincy or Baltimore, but I think they are missing an important point in this that they don't talk about, what if those carriers play to their status. Using the Yankees - Stanton, Donaldson, Rizzo etc have been horrible. If those guys play to their career avgs, where are Yankees now. Angels - Rendon has been a disaster and Trout has been an above average player, but if those 2 guys are playing to what they did prior to 2019, I wager we make at least one of the playoff years.

Our problem is pitching, and we got Tyler Anderson as an innings eater and solid 3 - he has been neither. We trade our best, and I would say really our only prospect, in Quero for him and not only has he not been average, he has been terrible. I expect a complete revamping of our coaching staff this year, starting with the guy who was not even hired to be pitching coach but the assistant who fell in due to the guy we hired being an idiot.

As for Utter disaster, possibly true, but I think Minasian has them on the right track going forward, a lot of guys who are, hopefully solid if not spectacular mlb ready guys. Our minors, prior to those trades were still ranked down in the bottom 5, so not like we were giving away, other then maybe Quero, future all-stars. No idea what will happen with Ohtani, but I suspect he probably leaves except that Angels might be one of the few teams that would still allow him to pitch and hit after the injury.

[unclevlad]

Solid but not spectacular == .500 ball club and no playoffs.

 

How often do those big contracts actually play to their cost...and for how long?  Yeah, if they do, that's one thing.  Another aspect with, say, the Yankees of the last several years is IMO roster mis-construction.  Too many all-or-nothing types.  With the Yankees as well, all-or-nothing hitters that were substandard on defense.  The Yankees recognized that last year, and took steps to address the defensive issues, for sure.  

 

Also, note that if Rendon and Trout aren't $20M...they're $35M.  IF they can re-sign Ohtani, even as a hitter only?  We're talking $40-45M...might be more, but that'd just make the case stronger.  So, we're talking 3 players, $110M, and about 50% of the salary cap.  IF they play that way, then they'd have to be brilliant...because the pitching staff will be badly underfunded.

 

Another point:  the Angels put those players on waivers to dump salary, hopefully.  Why?  Not so much to cut expenses this year, but to get under the competitive balance tax...if someone picks them up, then the remaining salary is their problem.  The CBT starts at $233M.  If they lose Ohtani, their compensation pick improves significantly...from post-4th round to post-2nd round.

 

If the Angels accede to Ohtani pitching...and try to get 150 innings a year out of him?  Assuming he doesn't have to have the 2nd TJ to try it...there's only a *slim* chance he'd last 2 years, I think.  Not with the repeat damage.  If he's got to have the TJ now, the first question is whether he *can* pitch again effectively.  History shows, this simply isn't very likely.

 

EDIT:  watching Angels-Phillies, actually, on MLB.  Bottom Line point about the D'backs-Dodgers game, in LA...the D'backs are 7-33 in the last 40 games in Dodger Stadium.   Owwwww.....

 

 

[slikmar]

1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

Solid but not spectacular == .500 ball club and no playoffs.

Agreed, but if you have the "3 aircraft carriers" playing to their full ability, then thats really what you need are those solid guys. Problem is, Rendon hasn't shown anything since Angels signed him to show could get back and Trout can't seem to stay healthy anymore.

[unclevlad]

42 minutes ago, slikmar said:

Agreed, but if you have the "3 aircraft carriers" playing to their full ability, then thats really what you need are those solid guys. Problem is, Rendon hasn't shown anything since Angels signed him to show could get back and Trout can't seem to stay healthy anymore.

 

It's enough on offense.  it's not enough pitching.

 

Another aspect here.  The aircraft carriers are priced at their maximum production.  There's no, or very little, upside that's even possible.  In a capped marketplace, even if it's loosely capped, you need players giving MORE than what you priced in.  That's a big reason why rookie contracts are so incredibly valuable.

[unclevlad]

An interesting point from yesterday from Anthony Recker on MLB Network.  His concern...what the Angels did has the potential to significantly alter the playoff race, at a time when it doesn't feel this should be possible.

 

And it's happened.  Cleveland claimed Giolito, Matt Moore, and Reynaldo Lopez.  That's a big shift to their bullpen...for basically no money and  no commitment.  This also let them cut Syndergaard, but given he was DFA'd that is no surprise.  

 

At this point...and the Mariners claimed Dominic Leone, so only the top 4 teams are left.  And that was long enough ago that probably, those not claimed at this point, won't get claimed.  Carrasco (Mets), Clevinger (White Sox), Cisnero (Tigers), and Grichuk (Angels).  Lessee...Carrasco's 0-5 with an ERA near 11, in his last 7 starts...yeah, pass.  Clevinger has a possible domestic violence issue.  Cisnero has been very shaky this year.  It'd be no surprise to see any/all of em released if they're not picked up.

 

EDIT:  on a separate note, the Braves set a team record for homers in a season.

It's still August......

I know they've been right around the pace to set the MLB record for a season, not sure where that is right now...

[unclevlad]

Just a passing thought...yeah, the four above weren't claimed by anyone.

 

Talk about a feeling of rejection............

 

And I think most of them were gonna be free agents.  Don't get your hopes up for a big offseason contract...........

[unclevlad]

Just flipping through the scores from this evening...

 

White Sox get embarrassed.  Detroit gets 10 runs on 18 hits.  White Sox get 4 hits...and hit into 4 double plays.  Detroit pitchers almost face the min 27 batters...but there was also a first inning fielding error, so in the end it was just 28. 

 

Oh, look who was pitching for the White Sox.  Clevinger.  4 IP, 12 hits, 8 runs all earned.  Should we suspect he was.....mmmmmm, shall we say, lacking motivation....? 

[unclevlad]

Craziness.  D'backs, Marlins, Giants, and Reds are all 3 games over .500;  Reds have played 2 more games, so they're slightly behind, but it's effectively a 4 way tie for the last playoff spot.  Most teams have 25 or 26 games left;  Reds have the fewest at 23.

 

And thanks to the generous assistance of the Angels, who dropped 3 in a row in Oakland, the A's no longer have the worst record in baseball.  That...honor...belongs to the Royals, at least today.  Oakland has a tougher stretch against contenders coming up.

[Pariah]

Have the Rockies been eliminated yet? I lost track/interest. 

[unclevlad]

Division...probably close to 2 weeks ago.

 

Wild card...not quite.  Rockies have 87 losses.  Braves, Dodgers, Brewers and Phillies are out of reach.  Cubs have 74 wins, so E == 2.  Reds have 72 wins, D'backs have 71 (with 2 more games to play than the Reds)...E == 4 or 5.  Hey, they even are playing the D'backs...lost today.  So they can put on a finishing sprint now!  And be eliminated before the Broncos even play a real down.

 

I said "real" down, not meaningful.  A meaningful down implies they end up being relevant, somehow...........

 

On the flip side, Atlanta number to clinch a playoff berth is 6.  Dodgers are next, at 12.  Orioles are at 16, mostly because the NL 3rd WC is going to win several fewer games...right now they're sitting 4 over .500 whereas the Blue Jays are 15 over...and NOT in the playoffs right now.

[unclevlad]

Twins have taken the first 2 against the Guardians in Cleveland, which has pushed the Guardians to the edge.

--season series is now 6-6...which means winner tomorrow gets the tiebreak, and we know the only way to get into the playoffs for these 2 is win the division

--yes, it also means it's the last game of the season series...after this, the Guardians can no longer help themselves

--a Cleveland loss tomorrow puts them effectively *9* games back...with only 22 left.  OTOH, a Guardians win means they're effectively only 5 out.  That can be done...9 out, with no head-to-head...long odds.  18-4 run would still need the Twins to go 9-15.  Even a Rockies-esque 20-2 would need the Twins to play below .500.

 

FanGraphs only gave the Guardians a 3% chance...before tonight's game.  Hasn't been updated yet, but that's got to drop notably.  EDIT:  oh yeah.  Updated now.  1.1% chance for the Guardians.  A mild curiosity...the Tigers' chance finally dropped to 0.0%.

[unclevlad]

Prepare to be mind blown.  From MLB.com:

 

Monday night, 9th inning, blowout.  Jose Altuve homers, adding that much more insult to injury in a 13-6 cakewalk.

 

Then on Tuesday, he homered in the first as the Astros scored 3.

He homered in the second, as they scored 3 more.

He homered in the THIRD as they pretty much threw the dirt onto the casket.  

Final score, 14-1.

 

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, it is the first time ever that a player has homered in 4 consecutive INNINGS.

 

27 runs on 36 hits in 2 games.  

 

Rangers are in freefall.  4-14 since winning the first 2 against the Angels in mid-August.  Given up 6+ runs 11 times in that stretch, all losses.  Scored 4 or less 9 times, losing 7.  Dropped from over 90% playoff probability on August 19th, to 55% today;  if the season ended today, in fact, they'd be OUT.

[slikmar]

9 hours ago, unclevlad said:

4-14 since winning the first 2 against the Angels in mid-August.  Given up 6+ runs 11 times in that stretch, all losses.  Scored 4 or less 9 times, losing 7.  Dropped from over 90% playoff probability on August 19th, to 55% today;  if the season ended today, in fact, they'd be OUT.

hmm, I often have heard losing in contagious, but you would have thought they were smart enough to inoculate themselves when they came to play the Angels. I mean, those are exactly the type of number the angels have seemed to have. heck, last night, our closer, with a 1 run lead blew the game. He started the season 23 for 23 in save opportunities.

Apparently tonight, to rub salt in the wound, Scherzer got bounced around to the tune of 7 runs in 5 innings while Verlander looked like Verlander.

Edited September 7, 2023 by slikmar

[unclevlad]

They actually beat the Angels in the first 2 games of that series, right before this collapse started in earnest.

 

And they're getting boatraced again tonight.  Scored 1 in the bottom of the 8th, but still down 8-3 going to the 9th.  Unless they can pull a rather unlikely comeback, they fall behind the Blue Jays again, and 2 back in the loss column to both Houston and Seattle.

The good news for Rangers fans?  Weekend 3 game series at home against the A's, who have played quite a bit better since their HORRIFIC start...but still under .400 ball, I believe.  Still a team that would worry me more than others;  there are teams that have already packed it in, but I don't think the A's are one of em.

[unclevlad]

Well, THAT was weird.

Brewers at Yankees.  Just starting the top of the 5th.  Severino on the mound for the Yanks.  First pitch is a ball.  2nd pitch is smacked back up the middle...as Severino doubles over, dropping his glove.  The pitch was delivered perfectly normally...no slip or anything, the land foot came down fine, the follow-through was fine.  But he is clearly in considerable pain...out of the blue.  

 

EDIT:  injury report right now is just "left side injury" and further tests are going to take place to nail it down.

 

 

[slikmar]

sounds like an Oblique maybe.

[unclevlad]

Dunno, we'll find out in the next day or two.  (OK, well, maybe not til Monday, if football locks your attention in a full nelson.)  It's likely gonna mean at least the 10 day injured list, you'd think...and the Yankees only have 21 games left, to try to make up an 8 game deficit.  They do have 6 games against the Blue Jays, so it's still possible.  They pretty much have to take 5 of the 6, tho....even 4-2 doesn't close the gap enough, given the very limited games remaining.

 

Rockies can be mathematically eliminated tonight.  6 teams have 74+ wins;  they have 88 losses, playing in San Fran.  I figured you'd want to know that, Mr. P.

 

 

 

 

 

[slikmar]

So, leading the league in guys on the various ILs wasn't enough for the Angels. The hottest hitter in their lineup, coming off the week he was named player of the week last week, ruptures a bicep while in the On-Deck circle.

[unclevlad]

This may be really, really small solace, but...if he did it making warmup swings, it might've been the better case...because he probably isn't swinging *as hard* in the on deck circle.  Chasing a mid 90's fastball?  It couldn't be any better, and it seems plausible it coulda been worse.

 

But cripes...yeah.  That's 5 dice of Unluck smacking you this season.

 

EDIT:  the worst aspect of the baseball season is, it's so bloody long.  FanGraphs has 8 AL and 6 NL teams with less than a 1% chance...most of em actually listed as 0.  Guardians and Padres are given a 0.6% chance;  the other 12 are 0.  Oh, and the Padres' loss tonight hasn't been included, which will knock a couple more tenths off.  And the Red Sox are 1.3%.

 

So half of baseball is going through the motions with most of September remaining.  

[Pariah]

In all their wretched history, the Colorado Rockies have never lost 100 games in a season.

 

Right now, they're sitting at 91 losses with 19 games remaining. Which means they need to win at least 11 of those games.

 

The Rockies' schedule? It features heavy doses of the Cubs, Padres, Giants, and the hated Dodgers.

 

We're not going to make it.

[unclevlad]

I keep telling you, man.  It's the Law of Conservation of Competence.  The Nuggets, champs.  The Avs, excellent, with negative effects still lingering from their title.  That guarantees the Broncos and Rockies will compete for a top-5 pick.  The Rockies are pretty much a lock...probably can't drop below the #4 pick even with a hot streak.  And, well, with the Broncos...who knows, but starting the season with an onside kick, when the whole game showed your special teams are TERRIBLE...gives me no confidence.

[unclevlad]

Yankees can draw a little enjoyment from today.  In sweeping the Red Sox, they've kept their slim hopes alive...and eliminated the Sox from the division race.

 

I tell ya, I'm seriously disturbed with what's going on with Ohtani.  9 games in a row now, and probably not playing tomorrow either.  This is NOT!!! promoting the argument that he can play both sides successfully, over an extended period.  That's without even the notion that he probably can't pitch at all in '24.

 

And if it's this bad...the Angels are totally out of it.  His agent feels a procedure's almost inevitable.  GET IT DONE.  Or if there are non-surgical approaches?  Fine, start them in motion, see if this can be fixed.  I'm good with that too.  Getting scratched every day is the worst situation. 

[unclevlad]

OHHHHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh nooooooooooooo....

 

Yankees-Pirates, bottom 6th.  Journeyman reliever Tony Misiewicz in for the Yankees  He's a lefty, he falls off towards 3rd.  His free foot barely touches back down when the ball comes SCREAMING back...100 mph off the bat.

 

Into the exposed, upper left side of his face.  

 

The SLIGHTLY good news is, the ball continues out about midway into left field;  Judge picks it up on only the 2nd hop.  That helps;  it's a grazing strike.  It still drops Misiewicz, who ultimately gets taken out on a cart.

 

It's always frightening when it happens.