L. Marcus Posted August 20, 2011 Report Share Posted August 20, 2011 The Space.com story. In summary: through simulations of crashes between forming planetary systems and interstellar gas clouds, it seems that the eccentric solar systems detected out there are the norm, and that terrestrial planets tend to be kicked out of the house before life gets a start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted August 20, 2011 Report Share Posted August 20, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! That makes sense. The thing about planetary simulations, though, is that they are highly sensitive to initial conditions--in other words, they're chaotic. If there are any discrepancies or errors in the model they're using, their results could be significantly off. Still, it's a very interesting result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xavier Onassiss Posted August 21, 2011 Report Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! I don't find this result the least bit surprising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McCoy Posted August 21, 2011 Report Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! Current detection methods bias results toward systems with "Hot Jupiters." Get back to me when we have increased the number of extrasolar planetary systems detected by an order of magnitude and we'll see how many terrestrial planets we have in the survey then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L. Marcus Posted August 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! That's true, but this'd definitely affect the odds in Vegas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McCoy Posted August 21, 2011 Report Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! That's true' date=' but this'd definitely affect the odds in Vegas.[/quote'] All the Vegas casinos absolutely love anyone who places their bets based on a computer model. Come in, sit down, what would you like to drink? On the house! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L. Marcus Posted August 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! ... Do they have Coke, you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McCoy Posted August 21, 2011 Report Share Posted August 21, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! ... Do they have Coke' date=' you think?[/quote'] Coca-Cola, certainly sir, coming right up. The other form of Coke, um sir, if you don't mind just how large was you flash roll? Perhaps you would prefer the VIP seating? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tasha Posted August 22, 2011 Report Share Posted August 22, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! Current detection methods bias results toward systems with "Hot Jupiters." Get back to me when we have increased the number of extrasolar planetary systems detected by an order of magnitude and we'll see how many terrestrial planets we have in the survey then. Once we get Hubble's successor Telescope up there and looking out, perhaps we might start to see more systems like our own. So I wouldn't count out anything till we get better optics and better instrumentation on the job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! All the Vegas casinos absolutely love anyone who places their bets based on a computer model. Come in' date=' sit down, what would you like to drink? On the house![/quote'] You do realize that playing roulette can have a positive expected value pretty easily if you use an appropriate computer, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McCoy Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! You do realize that playing roulette can have a positive expected value pretty easily if you use an appropriate computer' date=' right?[/quote'] Really? I know a casino that would love a demonstration. Seriously, ONLY way a computer is going to give you better than chance results is if the wheel is crooked. If the wheel is truely random, computer will not spot a pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cancer Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! I'm waiting for the main data release from the Kepler mission, which is really the only project running that has a chance to detect Earth-class planets in earth-like orbits. If the dynamical modelers had predicted the Hot Jupiter phenomenon before it was observed, I'd give them more points. But right now, the models are very poorly constrained by observations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! Really? I know a casino that would love a demonstration. Seriously, ONLY way a computer is going to give you better than chance results is if the wheel is crooked. If the wheel is truely random, computer will not spot a pattern. The wheel isn't truly random, though. The Eudaemons created a roulette predictor that managed an average 44% percent profit on every dollar in the 1970s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L. Marcus Posted August 23, 2011 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! ... You mean, for every dollar bet, you lost fifty-six cent? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! ... You mean' date=' for every dollar bet, you lost fifty-six cent?[/quote']No. Profit is revenue less cost. For every dollar bet, you got back $1.44. A 56% loss rate would be much higher than roulette's natural behavior. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darren Watts Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! Roulette wheels are way better made and maintained today then they were even in the 90s, let alone the 70s. However, if you find a casino with an old one (highly unlikely in the US, but in places like the Caribbean), go to town! dw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! The wheel isn't truly random' date=' though. The Eudaemons created a roulette predictor that managed an average 44% percent profit on every dollar in the 1970s.[/quote'] If I recall correctly, the Eudaemonic roulette calculator was a real time device that needed the operator to input the speed and position of the ball immediately after the croupier launched it. Roulette was unique in the sense that bets could be placed while the ball was in motion, at least back then. I honestly don't know if they still allow that. Blackjack was the other game that could be beaten over time with a fixed (i.e. non card counting) strategy. The casinos have fixed that by changing the game such that the dealer now hits on soft 17 (17 with an ace in it at a value of 11). That swings the odds in favor of the casino to the point where they're going back to having single deck blackjack, and now you must count cards to have a prayer of beating the house over time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McCoy Posted August 23, 2011 Report Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: The (possible) dearth of habitable terrestrial worlds explained! If I recall correctly' date=' the Eudaemonic roulette calculator was a real time device that needed the operator to input the speed and position of the ball immediately after the croupier launched it.[/quote'] How was that managed? Infrared Doppler laser? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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