SteveZilla

Re: Jokes You know what that means? It means I'm still young!! Instead of thinking Bingo, my first thought was "Battleship"?

Re: I am hot! (They have medication for that, y'know) Hi there, Siren! Take a look at these Disadvantages and see if any or all will help flesh out your character: (People Who Are Attracted To The Character) Fall All Over (Him/Her) Sex Object Stunningly Beautiful The Master Lists are a great resource for Disadvantages (I should know -- I'm the webmaster for the site they're on )!

Re: The probability and predictability of dice.

Re: The probability and predictability of dice. In Battletech, which uses 2d6 for to-hit rolls, I *always* take it into account on which target (if I have a choice) I shoot at. The only exception is if I'm really trying to take down an already badly damaged mech. Then I'll target it to just about the exclusion of all else. In Hero System, it has made a difference on which target I shoot at (the speedster/martial artist vs the brick/mentalist/energy projetor).

Re: The probability and predictability of dice.

Re: The probability and predictability of dice. Which is the same odds as rolling either a 12 or a 72 on 12d6. If someone games for 72 years, for 23 hours each day, and rolls once every second, they will just make it. Jolt Cola, anyone?

Re: The probability and predictability of dice. So, if the number one is adding up are consecutive integers (like the possible results from a group of dice), their average will be their mean, right? Which is the same as saying "there is a 16.66666... percent chance of rolling any number on a d6". But what kind of predictions are we talking about? To me, the "predictability" of a group of dice is essentially the average of each results' chance of being rolled. Is there a better way of quantifying the predictability of a group of dice?

Re: The probability and predictability of dice. Which, for a dice roll, means that the bell curve is symmetrical about the mean, right? I prefer to think of the Bell Curve shape (from dice) as simply resulting from a graph of the Number of Combinations that produces each result. Is there a way to determine how many standard deviations it takes to encompass *all* of the results of a group of dice? Since 99% of them are encompassed by 3 standard deviations, I would expect it to be just a little more than 3 -- like 3.1 or 3.14. Ah, the chance for any single result of a roll. The Number of Combinations that make that result divided by the Total Number of Combinations, times 100. I find it interesting that if we graph the chance for each number instead of the combinations that make each number, we generate a *hugely* flatter bell curve. And that as we add dice, the graph of the combinations gets taller, but the graph of the number's chances gets shorter. I don't know how to calculate standard deviations, or what purpose standard deviations have in the mix. How are they calculated? I understand the first part of that statement, but not the last part (the "but become less significant to the total" as well as the "faster" part). No matter how many dice are used (more than one, I'd presume), 3 standard deviations still cover 99% of the results. Both the range of results and the size of the standard deviation seem to be in exact proportion to each other. Okay, a graph of the combinations per result of the dice is a "distribution curve". But it's a graph of the combination distribution, right? Doesn't this differ from a graph of the chance of each result? Which could still (AFAIK) be called a distribution graph, just a distribution of %chance? Okay, so if I understand you correctly, you're saying that 2d6 will be more predictable than 2d6+28 because 2d6+28 will/can generate a greater possible variance relative to the mean? Defining predictability like you have above, 2d6 and 2d6+28 would seem to be equally predictable. Everything has been "shoved right" on the graph. All the results and also the mean they generate. Rolling 4+5 to get 9, and rolling 4+5+28 to get 37 each have a % chance equal to each other, and both are equally distant from their own means (9 is 2 away from the mean of 7, and 37 is 2 away from the mean of 35). 2d6 can vary at most +/-5 from it's mean, and 2d6+28 can vary at most +/-5 from it's mean.

Re: Good-by Speedster Actually, I just found out that UAA completely ignores any Non Combat Multiple on a movment power. So buying NCMs and UAA is a waste of points. Better to just use Megascale! Boooiiiinnggg!!!: Leaping 10" + UAA(+1), Ranged(+1/2) + Megascale(1"=10KM; +1/4) 27 Active & Real Points. Target leaps 100 KM horizontally, or 50 KM straight up. Unless there's some ruling about UAA Megascale I am unaware of.

Re: The probability and predictability of dice.

Re: The probability and predictability of dice. Cool. I've thought about getting some, but the larger size tends to put me off. It'd be kinda hard to use them to roll an 18d6 pushed haymaker.

Re: Good-by Speedster Change Environment can do a good amount more in 5th ed. Or, one could possibly say that the 'effects' of what it could always do is now clearly defined. It changed with Fifth Edition. Though it's expensive per point (5 pts per single point), and carries the "GM must approve type of damage" warning. And also "Change Environment should not be as effective at causing damage or creating other effects as other Powers." IMO that sounds kinda munchkiny. It should be noted that the damage from separate shots from the same Autofire attack do not and cannot coordinate with each other to improve the chance of stunning the target. Each single autofire shot can still stun them if it does over their CON, of course. Define "good", please. And this presumes the GM allows the use of a VPP -- not all do. I believe a quite effective Speedster can be built with Multipowers and Elemental Controls -- no VPP needed. Admittedly, a VPP does make them more flexible. But VPPs have that effect for nearly any character. The limited Damage Reduction has to fit the rest of the character's F/X, of course.

Re: Good-by Speedster Nice. I've never seen "Optional Advantage" before -- what's that mean? And for such a low level of dice, I'd personally add Penetrating, and still come in at 60 AP.

Steve, does applying Useable As Attack to a Movement Power have any affect on the use of that Movement Power's NCM in the attack? For ex: 1. Teleportation + UAA. A normal NCM Teleport means the character is at 0 OCV and 1/2 DCV, and it takes a full extra Phase (going off on the character's DEX, I presume). Would a NCM Teleport UAA have the attacker suffering these 'penalties'? And the target, if successfully hit, only suffers the movement of the teleport, and nothing else? 2. Leaping + UAA. Leaping NCM takes the character more than one phase, during which he's 0 OCV and 1/2 DCV, and can take no other actions. Would a NCM Leaping UAA have the attacker suffering these 'penalties' (meaning that, along with the CV mods, the attack takes two or more Phases)? And the target, if successfully hit, only suffers the movement of the teleport, and nothing else? Related Question, if Yes to either 1 or 2: 3. Would an attacker using a Movement Power, UAA, Megascaled suffer the same "Non Combat Movement" penalties as he would if it wasn't Megascaled? Thanks! PS: If I had to guess, I'd say it would be "yes" to all three -- letting UAA negate the NCM mechanics just seems wrong to me.

Steve, if a character has either Teleportation + UAA or Desolidification + UAA, and in using it causes the target to materialize inside a solid object, who takes the materialization damage (5re, p367) -- the target, the attacker using the power, or both? Thanks!

Re: The probability and predictability of dice. Can we please leave game-specific designations out of this? They have no bearing on the issue. The probability curve/distribution/whatever for 3d6 or 3D6+Y will be the same in Hero System, in D&D, in GURPS, and any other system that adds the dice together (and also a fixed amount, if present) to get a result. Can you give a definition of "distribution curve", please?

Re: The probability and predictability of dice. If they are "official" dice as opposed to "slightly defective rejects" or "souvenirs", then that's very likely. But what does "stamped out" mean?

Re: New Player Hates All The Dice Okay, here's a new thread just for us probability fanatics. The probability and predictability of dice.

Okay, this thread is for the continuation of a quite lively discussion about dice, probability, predictability, bell curves, and partial standard effect, to name a few. The "old" thread, which was for something different, is located here. We'll be leaving that poor, derailed thread to recover and continue on it's merry way.

Re: New Player Hates All The Dice Geez! Give me a minute. I'm at work here, okay?

Re: New Player Hates All The Dice Whatever happened to:

Re: Good-by Speedster I've thought of the same thing. Though it is a no range attack to start. And if the Speedster moves out of line of sight, it shuts off. Not to mention that the character is paying 8 END per phase for this. Or, one could just use (built from memory without a book): Whoa!: 2D6 Drain DEX and SPEED (Two powers simultaneously; +1/2) - Penetrating(+1/2), Zero END(+1/2), Uncontrolled(Lasts 5 Minutes; +1/2) (60 Active Points) And buy about 5-6 2 pt +1 OCV levels with it. Tag them with a few of these, and they're going *nowhere* fast.

Re: peating myself. At least in the hands of trigger-happy PCs, that is. NPCs under the GM's control can easily have them if the GM so desires. That’s your opinion. I have a different one. THERE ARE OTHER OPTIONS BESIDES HAVING RAMPANT KILLING ATTACKS AND NO KILLING ATTACKS. A GM can discourage a player of a heroic PC (note I didn't say SUPER-heroic. After all, Hero System is more than just Champions) from having one without forbidding them outright. Well, by that definition, even a 3D6 attack could be considered a "killing attack". It just takes a little longer. Or a Change Environment that does damage could be a "killing attack". And if a cop tasers a person with a weak heart and they die, was that a "killing attack"? It resulted in a death, so it must have been. Perhaps because some people just don't agree with your conclusions about Killing Attacks? I know I don't, and that's because of personal experience. I suggest that maybe the palindromedary is making a bloody mountain out of a molehill. Perhaps some didn't listen. But perhaps, just perhaps, some people are fallible, or are reading while at work, and thus aren't able to *quite* give it 100% of their attention. So "the palindromedary" can kindly go fly a kite.

Re: Did the palindromedary eat the title?

Re: New Player Hates All The Dice Guys, I'm wondering (perhaps a bit belatedly) if we should create a new thread just for this discussion, and leave this (somewhat derailed) thread to it's original intent. Yes? No?