College Football 2023-2024

[unclevlad]

And it's formally over.

 

From cyclonefanatic.com:

 

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The Big 12 Board of Regents voted unanimously on Friday evening to admit Arizona State, Arizona, and the University of Utah to the Big 12 Conference.

 

Here is the official statement from Commissioner Brett Yorkmark:

 

“We are thrilled to welcome Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah to the Big 12. The conference is gaining three premier institutions both academically, and athletically, and the entire Big 12 looks forward to working alongside their student-athletes and administrators.”

 

A bit of quick browsing about possible futures for Stanford and Cal...the Mountain West's TV contract pays the schools about $4M a year, according to a story in SI.  

[Pariah]

There's plenty of blame to go around, of course, but the direct cause of death is largely self-inflicted. The PAC-12 couldn't adapt to changing conditions, and now it's gone the way of the dinosaur.

 

The Pac-12 is dead as we know it, just don't expect the Big Ten, Big 12 or anyone else to take the blame

 

The article does bring up one possibility I hadn't considered: the leftovers might be targets for the American, not just the Mountain West. Interesting thought.

[Starlord]

Big 12 is now undeniably the best basketball conference IMO.

[unclevlad]

2 hours ago, Starlord said:

Big 12 is now undeniably the best basketball conference IMO.

 

Arguably was before.  Losing Texas and Oklahoma didn't hurt much.  Utah has been pretty good, fairly consistently;  Arizona may be back.  Colorado's been on an upswing, and they fit better in the Big 12. Arizona State's record in basketball is...forgettable at best.  They made the Sweet Sixteen in 1995...but have won only 2 NCAA tournament games since.  NIT 8 times, and NO tournament 13 times.  Well, every conference has its cupcakes.

[Pariah]

Here's a eulogy: 

 

Pac-12 collapse: Tracing 12 strategic blunders that led to Doomsday

[unclevlad]

Great line...

 

For now, let's address the T-Rex in the room: How in the name of Bill Walton did this happen?

 

There's a related story
https://www.ksl.com/article/50703202/pac-12-survival-whats-next-for-remaining-4-teams-after-mass-exodus-to-big-ten-big-12

 

A major point:  I know Stanford in particular, places a HIGH value on the secondary sports.  Want the details?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_Cardinal

 

But they're on the brink of losing probably a good $20M a year.  OK, they've got a huge!!! endowment, but I don't know if it can even be used for sports.

 

Plus, the remaining schools had BETTER have learned their lesson, because the next clock is already ticking:  the transfer portals.  The football transfer portal opens the Monday after the bowl game selections are made, which this year is Dec. 4th.  That's the absolute, drop-dead date;  without a deal, with such massive uncertainty about the future, no one can blame any of the players from leaving.  The recruiting situation is no better;  again, to have ANY chance in recruiting, even mediocre stability is better than no security whatsoever.  I'm not saying the Fractured Four have any chance at a decent deal;  I don't see how that's possible.  Or at least, plausible.  I think all 4 schools are going to implode in at least football and basketball, and quite possibly, the ripple effects will demolish most/all of their programs.  The corollary that comes to mind?  The death sentence dropped on SMU, and how long that recovery took...over 20 years before they got back to a bowl game, and even then, they've never been in better than a 3rd tier bowl since.

[unclevlad]

Not sure how I feel about this one, but...the ACC is discussing the possibility of adding Stanford and Cal.  They fit in several ways, I'll grant, but obviously the geography is awful.

 

I'm also wondering is this is partly a counter to FSU's whines and threats.  Something of a warning shot..."we don't need you as much as you think."  

 

If this pans out, then WSU and OSU will have to join someone else.  If it's not the Mountain West, tho, who?  C-USA?  About the same level, probably a better size fit, another awful geographic fit.  American Athletic?  They're losing the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th strongest teams, so their power ranking will crash.  C-USA had 2 teams in the top 50 last year, and 6 teams in triple digits.  

 

Well...short take is, the rich keep getting richer.  There's the SEC and Big 10.  There's a BIG gap to the Big 12 and ACC.  Then there's a bloody Grand Canyon to Anyone Else.  I seriously doubt the situation is sustainable;  it's just too imbalanced.  

[unclevlad]

In this morning's newsletter, the Athlietic reiterates a point I've seen...logistics will be a nightmare for these huge conferences.  Size here is both number of teams and geographic size.  Remember:  conference affiliations apply to most sports, not just football and basketball.  It goes on to say something I think has greatly advanced in the last 2 weeks:

 

Quote

I think football ends up in its own entity, separate from other varsity sports at each school, playing in its own tournament and abiding by its own rules. It’ll still make gobs of money, but it will feel more hollow.

 

It'll basically strip the veneer that, at least for the upper tier of players, they're "student" athletes.  No, they're pros.

 

Deja vu.  First coaches' poll is out.  I'll give you 3 guesses for teams 2-4, in any order, but must get all 3.  (DUH, Georgia is #1.)  But you shouldn't need more than 1.  

[unclevlad]

Reports are that adding Stanford and Cal to the ACC appears to be failing.  SI is reporting 4 schools voted No, which is 1 short of the 12 of 15 needed.  No formal vote took place, so it's possible there'll be more behind-the-scenes hijinx, but apparently it's not looking good.

 

Some of this could be posturing by FSU;  they're one of the 4, with Clemson, UNC, and NC State the others.  Mind, there's some pretty good reasons to not do it, the travel hassles being the biggest, so we can't just assume FSU's playing gadfly...give us what we want or else!  But it's still plausible.

[Pariah]

The PAC-4 (Cal, Stanford, Washington State, and Oregon State) have hired Andrew Luck as a consultant to explore scenarios for the schools moving forward.

 

One idea apparently floating around: Since NCAA regulations require at least six schools for an athletic conference, snag a couple of AAC schools with good academic résumes (e.g., Rice and Tulane) along with SMU in the short term. Then grab a few more from the Mountain West once the exit fee drops to reasonable levels, maybe Boise, Fresno, and San Diego State.  

 

The article suggests that this is probably not a P5 (or P4) level conference, but might be the strongest of the Group of Five/Six) conferences most years. There's no east coast travel to help keep expenses down. The author speculates that this conference could draw maybe $10M annually for each school—not ideal, but better than what most of these schools are getting under the present scenario. And the PAC-? survives, in some form.

[unclevlad]

But note a big qualifier to grab from the Mountain West:  once the exit fee drops to reasonable levels.  San Diego State's was gonna be $17M.  $10M a year is only about $5M a year over what the MWC gives...so we're talking 3+ years to pay that off.

 

And, *can* that deal even be arranged in time for the '24-25 season?  Probably not.  If not...then what do the Pac-4 schools do for that season?  In ALL sports?  If you're a high quality recruit, who's in the class of '24...would you consider a school, a program that looks to be playing an independent-level schedule at best, at least for a year?  And I've noted the transfer portal for the existing players.

[Pariah]

1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

$10M a year is only about $5M a year over what the MWC gives...

 

Or, from a slightly different perspective, double what the MWC gives. That's not nothing.

[unclevlad]

Half what the Apple+ contract was projected to pay.

1/3 or wose of the Big 12, Big X, and SEC deals.

PROBABLY lose the tie-in with the Rose Bowl.  PROBABLY lose *all* the high-end bowl deals...relegated to, at best, 2nd-tier bowl games.  Loss?  $2-3M per school.  So for the ex-PACs, it's still a disaster.

 

The point, tho...at what point does any buyout required to leave the MWC, make a paltry increase like this untenable?  $34M would be *7 years* before you actually see a dime in increased net revenue.

 

That's also assuming a media rights deal worth $10M can be developed...for a 7 team league?  Boise State hasn't been ranked in the top 15 in the final polls since 2012;  this isn't their heyday of upsetting Oklahoma any more.  San Diego State was 25th...in '21 and '16.  Both teams are getting bowl bids...but we're talking Frisco, Famous Idaho Potato, Las Vegas, Armed Forces, Hawaii Bowl...3rd tier, mostly.  Fresno State is similar.  I'm not saying they're bad teams;  I'm saying they're not teams from which to build a brand.  

And Stanford has a pretty solid history...but haven't been ranked the last 5 years.  Discounting 2020, in their last 3 seasons, they've won 4, 3, and 3 total games.  Cal?  They haven't been .500 in conference...a generally WEAK conference...since 2010, and only made 4 bowl appearances in that span.  And remember that close to 2/3 of the teams make one every year, so NOT making one most of the time is Really Bad.  WSU was somewhat better under Mike Leach...but he's gone.  And it's located in the middle of nowhere...Pullman's very close to the Idaho border.  Media interest?  Market?  Non-existent.  Oregon State had a decent year last year...made a bowl game the year before...but failed to do so the prior 7 years.  Corvallis is somewhat better located...but Eugene and Oregon are only about 50 miles down the road.

 

EDIT:  Yeah, ok, much of this applies to the MWC...but they could be branded as the plucky underdogs.  The Pac-4 are the lame teams no one wanted.

[Grailknight]

They should just accept it, and merge with the MWC. They may not get Power 5 deal, but they should be able to get 10-15 million/school because of the loss of other West coast games. But the longer they put it off, the harder it'll be to act in unison.

[unclevlad]

I agree, there won't be anything better coming down the pipe.  And they can't wait.  Not just act in unison, but act *at all* from any halfway decent position.  If that's even still possible.

 

I also disagree that there's market space for those games.  The Pac 12 deal had a big problem;  their games kicking off around 7 local time, are finishing after midnight in the Central TZ...much less the East.  The viewership wasn't there.  Make it earlier?  Cool, fit it into the early-evening slot, game #3.  With USC or UCLA or Oregon.  Washington State vs. Fresno State doesn't look so hot.

 

And even a USC-Michigan State game would likely draw better viewership, even if the kickoff is more like 6:30 or 7 in Los Angeles.

[Pariah]

If lower travel costs are an issue, the Mountain West is a much better fit for the PAC leftovers than the American. The closest AAC football school to these universities, Tulsa, is farther away than all of the MWC schools except Hawaii. And Tulsa is two time zones away. 

 

True, Laramie and Fresno aren't exactly resort destinations, but in fairness, neither are Pullman and Corvallis. 

[unclevlad]

We don't know why UNC, NC State, FSU and Clemson voted no;  it's also reasonably likely different schools did it for different reasons.
But I'm fairly sure UNC, at least, is a lot like Stanford in fielding MANY NCAA-level programs.  IIRC, they've got national titles in women's soccer and field hockey.  The negative impact, both logistic and financial, clearly increases with the number of programs involved.

[Pariah]

Expansion is still just one of three possible options. The PAC-4 could still choose to merge with the Mountain West or The American. 

 

Oliver Luck reportedly determining expansion candidates for the Pac-12

 

If he pulls it off and keeps the conference alive, what are the chances that Luck is the new PAC commissioner?

[Pariah]

From the Book of Face:

 

"The Georgia Bulldogs are expected to go 12-0 this season. Twelve arrests, zero convictions." 

[unclevlad]

<SIGH>

 

The heat has baked my brain.  102 again today.  

 

So it was something of a slap to the cerebral cortex to realize....week 0 of the college football season is less than 9 days away...................

 

And the opening salvo of week 1 is 2 weeks from today................

 

I'm not ready for football............

[unclevlad]

Well....

 

Michigan suspends Harbaugh for 3 games.

 

Note:  MICHIGAN does.  When a 4 game suspension was already vetoed by the infractions committee.  

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38234403/sources-michigan-self-imposes-3-game-jim-harbaugh-ban

 

It's spin, hoping that a significant, material suspension can be avoided by splitting it up.  Like these 3 games even matter?  East Carolina, UNLV, Bowling Green?  Probably 30+ point favorites in each.

[Pariah]

College football 2023-24 season officially begins Saturday at 12:30 p.m. EDT with Navy versus Notre Dame in Ireland.

 

The first conference game of the season starts 3 hours later with UTEP visiting new C-USA arrival Jacksonville State.

 

Let the games begin.

[unclevlad]

Will it never end???

 

Story is that the ACC is back to considering expansion.  Cal, Stanford, AND SMU.  Vote may happen by the weekend.

[Pariah]

What are the chances Florida State will vote no again just to submarine the conference?

.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Pariah

[unclevlad]

It takes 4 No votes to torpedo it.

 

Interesting article.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/acc-expansion-stanford-cal-smu-really-would-add-nothing/tjt4vceowjocnzdqy66kzpqq

 

3500 for basketball home games?  Colorado was lousy when I was there, and drew 2-3 times that...  And Cal only had 2200?  We might've beaten that when the games were in the Fieldhouse, freshman year.  And THAT was a glorified HS gym...literally.  OLD court, terrible lighting, literally just bleachers on each side of the court.  Kinda fun to watch a game there, you were right on the court...