College Football 2023-2024

[Pariah]

It was just a formality, really.

 

Colorado approves return to Big 12: Buffaloes set to depart Pac-12 in 2024 after 13 seasons with conference

 

Edit: Well, I was wrong about the timing.

Quote

The next step in the process is for CU to submit a pair of official letters, one to the Pac-12 noting their withdrawal from the league on July 1, 2024, and another to the Big 12 requesting admission to the conference on the same date.

 

We'll see what the PAC has to say about the matter. Presidents/Chancellors and ADs are meeting tonight.

.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Pariah

[unclevlad]

I thought you might have a point;  July '24 is pretty fast.  That said, a cornerstone here is that USC and UCLA are gone.  The media rights deal expires at that time, and without them, what are any such rights worth?  Especially with the fact that the Pac 12 Network has BOMBED...worse than a DCEU movie.  They are giving notice.  Their date is when the conference's existing structure collapses anyway.

 

The Pac 12 might try to scream, but it's also plausible their new state simply means they have no basis to scream.

 

Also found this tidbit:

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/lists/colorado-athletic-director-abruptly-leaves-pac-12-media-day-after-george-kliavkoff-presser/?taid=64bef481e6315400010b8cdd&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter

 

 

[Pariah]

Interesting observation from Woody Paige on CU's exodus to the Big XII:

 

"The Buffaloes ... will pay no exit fee to the Pac-12 because of the lack of a TV deal"

 

Wow. Talk about great timing.

[unclevlad]

I didn't think it would be zero, but yeah...no rights deal, what's the conference value?  

 

The person coming out of this in the worst shape is the clown holding down the position of Pac 12 commissioner.  Commit to an asylum for hiring him.  NON commit, as in unable to score a media deal.  The guy has 3 years left on his current deal.  Were I him, I'd take whatever halfway reasonable buyout I might get.  There's *no chance* in my mind he'll stay in the position...heavily influenced by the fact that the conference is so unlikely to be in existence in a year.  (Or in existence as a shell only, as other teams have to wait to switch to other conferences.)  

 

To be sure:  the big issue with getting a media deal is...who wants a noSoCal Pac 10?  What would they be willing to pay?  Could be very much like the Ohtani situation...the price to match Ohtani's *singular* value is simply more than almost every team would be willing to pay.  (The Dodgers were mentioned as someone who possibly could...but yeah...Ohtani to the Dodgers would have Moreno dolls being burned in effigy.)  Media rights are becoming a HARDER sell.  No East Coast/Midwest attraction to a West Coast night game.  That damages marketability to both national networks and streamers.  Pac 12 Network packages?  So, so, SO far behind the curve...I believe they only started offering HD on basketball games *last season*.  Come on, once you get used to HD, sports in TV standard def are all but unwatchable.

 

Woody's closing point...Colorado's #13.  No one wants 13 teams.  Ergo, VERY safe bet the Big X will get 1 more.  Woody says Arizona's likely and there've been comments that make that believable.  OTOH, *perhaps* it'll be even bigger.  Would Washington and Oregon, one or both, ALSO follow?  Possibly with some teams leaving, like Rutgers?

 

This isn't a game of musical chairs any more, it's a dance-til-you-drop dance marathon...with 15 minute breaks built in.

[Grailknight]

The Big 12 should go after the two Arizona schools and Utah to get to sixteen teams. That would make sense from a travel standpoint and keep or improve some rivalries. Plus it would more than offset what they lose in basketball just to get Arizona.

[Pariah]

From what I've read, the Big XII is interested in 14 rather than 16. (Which makes the part of me that took all those math classes twitch a little bit, but that's neither here nor there.) Getting all four of the four corner State schools would certainly be a coup for the Big XII, and would probably mean the end of the PAC as we know it.

 

Arizona apparently has some interest in leaving, but they're waiting to see what the new media deal might look like first. Arizona State seems content to stay, as does Utah.

 

For Utah to join the Big XII would include an admission, at least tacitly, the BYU is in a better position than they are right now. I don't foresee that happening anytime soon.

.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Pariah

[tkdguy]

Sorry, I meant to post in the Ctrl-V thread;  post moved.

Edited July 30, 2023 by tkdguy
Posted in the wrong thread.

[unclevlad]

I don't think 16 teams is manageable.  There's only so many game slots.  12, 14, and 16 all split into 2 divisions for college, where you can't run a complex playoff schedule.  

 

6 teams per division...play everyone in your division, play half the other division.  8 conference games.  This has been pretty common, as it lets schools have rivalry games (USC-ND for example) and snack on plenty of cupcakes.  Basketball, 16 game schedule simply;  could even go to 18, where #1 and #2 in division A, play home and home versus #1 and #2 in division B, etc.

 

7 teams per...somewhat awkward.  If you want a full divisional round robin, that's 6, leaving 2 or 3 slots interdivision.  That means it could be 3 years between matchups, and thus probably 5 years between specific interdivision trips.  Basketball, it's a 19 game schedule.  Tight but doable.

 

8 teams per...the SEC issue.  Scheduling is a pretty big mess in football and basketball.  

 

Plus, obviously, with 16 teams, revenue sharing gets somewhat diluted.  There's also the potential for more games no one will want to watch, which won't make media partners happy.  That plays into giving out revenue shares to schools not increasing the value of the deals in the first place.

 

Hm.  Speculation:  PART of the problem the Pac 12 is having, getting a media deal, is...there's only so many Saturday slots.  Sure, it's a lot;  what, 3-4 on CBS nets, maybe 6 on Fox nets, maybe 8 on ESPN?  With the massive priorities given to relevant conferences.  The Pac 12 did a lot better last season, but overall...they haven't been consistently relevant for quite some time.  One can argue that, other than Clemson, neither has the ACC, but they're in a better time zone for broadcast purposes.  The expansion, particularly of the SEC and Big 10, gobbles up more of those slots, meaning there isn't *that* much pressure on the media companies to add Pac 12 games.  At least on Saturday.  But...let's face it...playing on Thursday or Friday night is nice PR...but it's for conferences that can't play in the big leagues.

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

A Tennessee Fan Who Presumably Meant To List His Tickets For The Georgia Game For $500 Accidentally Sold Them For $5 Each

[Pariah]

I don't know if this is true, but at this point I wouldn't be surprised by anything.

 

Big Ten Rumored To Be Adding Four Prominent Schools This Week

 

For the curious, the rumored schools are Oregon, Washington, Clemson, and Florida State. The first two are no surprise, but the second two are a little unexpected.

[unclevlad]

An 18 (!!!??!!) team conference?

 

That's insane.  And totally unworkable, IMO.  In all sports.  OK, perhaps Rutgers and someone else bail out, they're at 16.

 

IF!!! it happens...just rumors right now...it largely guts the ACC in football.  Clemson and FSU are the only schools with any kind of top-level track record over the last decade, altho after the national title, FSU started slipping.

 

One story I saw pointed out that leaving the ACC is, apparently, NOT easy or cheap, so this is another reason why it might not be a done deal all the way, altho Oregon and Washington...that's easier to see, and at that point we could lower the Pac 12 coffin into the ground and start filling up its grave. 

 

My wild thought...probably premature, certainly speculative....

 

If the Big 10 goes to 18 teams, it's a move to challenge the NCAA and start the formation of a football-only organization with the SEC, and possibly the Big 12...but a football-only super-conference with the SEC and Big 10 alone would be a force.  Yeah...IF FSU and Clemson bail on the ACC and join the Big 10...this is as big as OU and Texas bailing on the Big 12.

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

I laughed way too hard at this. 

 

 

[unclevlad]

How did Deion miss Buck COORS?

Oh...true...that's Golden, not Boulder.  Beneath notice.

[Pariah]

Personally, I would be terrified of a defensive lineman named Demon Clowney. 

[unclevlad]

2 hours ago, Pariah said:

Personally, I would be terrified of a defensive lineman named Demon Clowney. 

 

Oh, yeah, that does deserve highlighting.  Memories of the PLANT his (I assume) brother did in the bowl game come to mind...still the most intense hit I've ever seen.

 

Be a great name for a supervillain too.

[Pariah]

I read an article way too late last night and can't find it again this morning, but it had the following to add to the current round of silly wild-a$$ed guessing concerning the future of the PAC-12.

 

Edit - Here it is: Report: Arizona president could consider ASU, Utah futures in Pac-12 decision

 

Arizona is apparently not impressed with the upcoming media rights deal, which leans heavily on revenue from streaming. (Actually, the feeling is that nobody's impressed with that deal, but that's a slightly different issue.) Streaming revenue is still hard to predict, so a big part of the upcoming media rights deal is kind of a crapshoot. Arizona is starting to think that Big XII money is looking really nice.

 

But Arizona also knows that if they leave, it will probably break the PAC-12. And they don't want to be remembered as the school that broke the PAC-12. So there are allegedly discussions with Arizona State and Utah about all going out together.

 

Package deal, all three or none at all.

 

I don't know that adding Utah and Arizona State adds much monetary value to a conference that already includes BYU and Arizona. But the ability to say that the conference had added four previous Power Five schools would certainly be a feather in the cap for the Big XII in terms of prestige. It would certainly vault the Big XII over the PAC, and probably over the ACC as well. 

 

Is any of this real? As my Mom used to say, "What do you get when you cross an elephant with a rhinoceros? Elephino." But it's fun to think about in the dog days of August.

.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Pariah
Self-evident, one should think.

[unclevlad]

Reports are that the media deal is with Apple+.  I agree with Finebaum:  this is not, not, not, NOT going to draw many people to sign on to Apple+.  Sure, the immediate fan bases, some of them will, but this is a death knell in terms of national recognition.

 

If Arizona thinks that staying will save the conference, tho, they're deluded.  At least as a Power 5.  And on Apple+, honestly, they might not rate the Group of 5, because what's this going to do to recruiting?  We'll have to see, but even if the 9 teams stay...how many of their freshmen and sophs, in particular, jump ship?  The most I think can be said is, even if they keep everyone they have right now, they've already taken a musket ball to the gut.  Take your pick...bleed out or die from massive infection.  

 

San Diego State dragging their feet is looking smarter and smarter. 

 

The part I find absurd is thinking that Arizona has any leverage here, to 'force' an all 3 or nothing deal.   

[Pariah]

I don't think it's about trying to force the hands of Utah or Arizona State. I think it's more like trying to find strength in numbers. Or peer pressure. "I'll jump off that cliff if you do", that sort of thing.

.

Edited August 2, 2023 by Pariah

[Pariah]

A couple of other articles for today:

 

$25 million emerges as new figure for the Pac-12 media deal with 50% linear commitment to a limited streaming partner: Reports

 

$25M per school per year, with 'at least' 50% linear (e.g., traditional TV and not streaming). Seems like pretty weak sauce compared to what the other conferences are offering.

 

But then there's this one to consider:

 

College football expansion: Big Ten in talks about 4 Pac-12 schools, per report

 

So, not just Oregon and Washington, but Cal and Stanford too? That would kill the PAC as a P5 conference, even if Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah stay. And if this were to come to pass, I can think of no reason they would.

 

Last one out of the PAC, turn out the lights and lock up as you leave. And let's extend a warm welcome to Oregon State and Washington State, the newest members of the 14-team Mountain West Conference!

 

Maybe. 

[unclevlad]

Different take on the number...saying it's much lower.

https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/college/big-12/2023/08/02/big-12-expansion-arizona-decision-puts-pac-12-on-brink-of-destruction/70514910007/

 

And suggesting a LOT less traditional TV.  So even weaker than what you cited.

 

The Big 10 report...look, when we combine that with the 'report' about FSU and Clemson and the other 2, well, my read is it's all wishful thinking/I heard from a guy who knows a guy/there's a tweet about....  Random noise at this point, IOW.  Plus, all the arguments against an 18 team conference still apply.

 

I do suspect that Arizona's decision will be announced before the week's out.

Huh, now this is something I didn't know, and supports the all-or-none angle:
 

Quote

The UofA/ASU connection is problematic if they disagree about their futures. The Wildcats and Sun Devils (and Northern Arizona) share a board of regents. The same people make decisions for both schools, which is crazy to Oklahomans, but whatever boats your float. 

 

And the Big 12 will want an even number of teams, so Utah is the most likely 3rd leg.  But I still say, they have no leverage, as UConn is reportedly an interesting add...for basketball, if not football.

[Pariah]

Oh, I think UConn could still be an interesting add for football. You can't really count on Kansas to be the doormat every year anymore. 

 

Of course, the addition of Colorado may already have taken care of that....

[Pariah]

And another one's gone, and another one's gone, another one bites the dust. Well, two, actually.

 

Oregon, Washington on verge of joining Big Ten: Charter Pac-12 members leaving league in 2024, per reports

 

That Arizona will now bolt for the Big XII seems a foregone conclusion. Will they go without Arizona State? And if Arizona State does go, will they convince Utah to join them?

 

Stay tuned.

 

Edited August 4, 2023 by Pariah

[unclevlad]

Even if only Oregon and Washington leave, and reports are, they've already told the rest of the conference that they will...

 

The conference is down to 7.  Who's left to poach, and what status do they have?  That's not entirely rhetorical, as I don't pay enough attention to know.

 

And it's 7 only if we assume no one else bails.  If Arizona balks because they don't want to split from ASU...what about Utah?  They have no connection to any other team in the Pac.  Would they want to be in the Big 12 with BYU?  Sometimes the bad blood is...pretty bad.  I don't know.  But if that's not an issue, it's still a more comfortable geographic fit.  The Big 12 might not be gung-ho to take *them*...but it's still a legit Power 5, and UConn isn't.  UConn also looks to be more of a pain for travel;  that's an issue brought up for Oregon and Washington going to the Big 10, their travel costs jump up considerably.  That offsets a fair bit of the increased revenue.

 

Also...we don't know the details of the Apple+ deal, but if 2 more big schools bolt, then what?  The deal, as I understand it, is linked to bringing in new subscribers.  No one attractive is left.  Bye-bye revenue.  And anyone who doesn't get out NOW, is likely gonna have a harder time doing it in the next few years.

 

EDIT:  Pete Thamel is reporting Arizona has already been accepted by the Big 12...and that talks are ramping up with Utah and ASU.

 

He also brought up that poaching the Mountain West basically has no chance for the '24 season.  The exit tab to head to the Pac x (they no longer rate a big X) is apparently $32M.  For a bad rights deal, for a conference with other economic woes from the prior admin?  Doesn't look smart, does it?  Also, with all these departures, what'll happen with all the bowl tie-ins?  The Power 5 status?  The remaining teams don't rate an automatic bid into the 12-team playoff...which locks the conference out of most of the serious bowl money.  The conference might fight to retain the name, somehow, but ya gotta figure...if the bowls can execute an escape clause, or potentially argue in court that the conference splintering to such a degree, constitutes something like a breach of contract and the deals are void...ya gotta think they'll try.  

[Pariah]

From Salt Lake City media outlet KSL: 

 

Reports: Utah applies to Big 12 as Oregon, Washington accept Big Ten invite

 

If the information in the article is accurate, then...

* Arizona was accepted into the Big XII last night;

* Oregon and Washington have accepted invitations to join the B1G after this academic year; and

* The Big XII is expected to issue invitations to Arizona State and Utah, which could be accepted as early as tonight.

 

The PAC-4 now consists of Cal Berkeley, Stanford, Oregon State, and Washington State in 2024.

 

Raiding the Mountain West, which seemed almost a certainty a month ago with San Diego State, is now prohibitively expensive. MWC teams can't afford the $34 million buyout, and the PAC has no revenue source to help them.

 

Ding dong, the PAC is dead. 

 

Among the speculation I have heard is that Oregon State and Washington State end up in the Mountain West while Cal and Stanford go independent. That would be something else.

 

I also have to say that around here, a lot of BYU fans are amused at the idea of proud Utah standing on the Big XII's front step, hat in hand, asking for somebody to save them.

.

Edited August 4, 2023 by Pariah

[unclevlad]

If the Pac 12 was a business with shareholders, the "CEO" George Kliavkoff would be getting sued by its shareholders for completely destroying the company equity.

 

Chicago Sun-Times also reports Oregon and Washington is done, and notes that ASU and Utah have formally applied to the Big 12.

 

OSU and WSU to the Mountain West sounds about as good as those schools can get, and yeah, I can see Stanford and Cal just going indy at least for now.  If nothing else, what OTHER choices are there?  For Stanford in particular, their athletic history is quite rich.  Cal, not so much.  

 

So...how much national interest is there gonna be WRT the last Pac 12 title race?  I suspect...next to none.  

 

I can't say I saw this coming...that a conference would totally implode.  I can say...I probably should have.