unclevlad

Well, next up? The combines...if you're that type of fan. I'm not. The draft...and the fun of second-guessing SO MANY choices. Came across this article just now: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/how-nil-has-led-to-a-glaring-lack-of-depth-in-the-2024-nfl-draft It's becoming somewhat similar to the NBA draft...but the NBA core situation is, there's so few slots that come open each year. But there's also this chart...couple years old now, but I doubt things have changed that much. (from https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-are-the-odds-to-become-an-all-star-for-each-draft-pick-2d113d6b82e5) Another analysis showed that only 20% of NBA players drafted in the second round are playing, between 5 and 10 years after the draft. That's likely why the NBA dropped down to only 2 rounds...let the players try to latch on where they can. In the NFL, from the sound of it, the analogous situation would be that 3rd and 4th rounders might well represent the new threshold of expecting someone who can stick. Heck, success rates for later rounds *now* are pretty poor, and with a much thinner pool? It'll only drop, clearly.

Interesting points made during studio show just now. The OSU men's basketball coach was fired today. His track record wasn't great; 4 times in the NCAA tourney, 3 times losing in the second round, the other time losing in the 1st round *as a #2 seed.* That's still rare, and really bad. Then no tournament last year cuz they went 5-15 in conference. This year...lost 9 of his last 11. The timing is what Farnham and Greenberg examined. Their position: because of the transfer portal. The firing itself, because patience is virtually non-existent...and the lack of success in the tourney doesn't give any leash. The timing is due to the portal. The portal opens up right after the regular season ends...so if you only fire the coach after the season, you're gonna have no time to convince your players to stay, AND you'll lose potential transfers because they won't make the move when there's no head coach named. Firing during the season at least allows lines of communication to be open, and the new coach can be in place faster. That makes a lot of sense. College basketball actually only *has* one portal window, too. College football splits its 45 days, there's a 15 day window in the spring, along with the postseason window.

Sitting down to eat dinner, ESPN college hoops on...so on the crawl, the Nets-Celtics score flashes by. Celtics 109-60, 10 minutes left in the 4th.................. Nets starters were 11-39 from the field. The NBA clearly needs a mercy rule.........but hey, both coaches can empty the benches to get those tail-end Charlies some actual court time...

So where's ours?

No motive yet for the shooting. Elsewhere...RFK Jr. apologized for that *bizarre* Super Bowl ad. He claims it was his SuperPAC's creation...and not approved. Yes, well, that never flies very well, does it? The family's irate...apparently not for the first time. His campaign staff is also leaving...even before the ad...citing malfeasance at the upper echelons.

The price for Super Bowl spots has been mind-boggling for years...and one aspect of this SB? The most watched TV show...of all time. The advertisers had to love it when it turned out to be Chiefs-Niners, because that was absolutely gonna be a ratings bonanza. https://www.superbowl-ads.com/cost-of-super-bowl-advertising-breakdown-by-year/ The American public has yet to show they have any limit to how much they'll pay to watch football. Another datum? In the Athletic this morning...ESPN and the CFP signed a 6 year extension to show the playoffs *exclusively* for $1.3B a year. The extension starts when the current deal expires...which gives ESPN the 3 playoff games and New Year's Six, for a paltry $600M. Even if you never go to a game, never buy anything like Red Zone or Sunday Ticket...football probably costs your household somewhere between $100 and $200 a year, I suspect, to cover the various fees/built-in costs, as long as you're not 100% reliant on OTA. Rebroadcast fees for cable/satellite...football-driven. Advertising...how much $$$$$$$ does Dr. Pepper spend on its football ads and promos? Etc. etc. etc. ad nauseum.

And in yet another example that House Republicans prefer to run a circus than run a government....they managed to get the Mayorkas impeachment vote through. 214-213.

Speaking of crises... Went shopping this morning...decided what the plan for the next couple days would be. (Permanent crown installed earlier...prudent to be a bit careful.) So I'm winding down, thinking through...hmm...should get olive oil. So I go to where it is. The pain from the crown installation was wiped away rather quickly.... I typically get the store brand, 1 liter bottle...10 bucks, IIRC, recently. Today? $17. WHOA. And the name brands were even higher. OK, yeah, I did see a story that several European crops were suffering from heat/drought conditions, and olives was one of em. Well slap my face with a mackerel, I guess so.........

That's what you risk when you go uniform...it's putting all the eggs in one basket, and sometimes it's hard to keep an eye on the basket. Similar stories...entire, massive fields being planted with one highly tailored strain of wheat, corn, or the like...year after year. That invites pests or infections that *love* that strain. In beer...I remember a story about Duvel, a Belgian strong golden ale. Lovely stuff. Dangerous as all heck, cuz it's fairly strong at 8.5%, but it drinks so, so, so easily. Yes, well, I remember reading that Duvel enthusiasts were going...wait, this isn't tasting right. And the brewery agreed, they were going...hmm, what changed? Brews like Duvel, or any of the Trappist ales or some French farmhouse ales...what develops is a unique ecology of fungi, yeasts, molds, and the like, all of which can impact the flavor. The particular mix is *mostly* stable, as conditions are mostly stable. This allows each element to camp in its own little niche. Well, something happened, and there was considerable effort made to identify what changed. IIRC, they did. The alarm presented in the article is, to me, very much like overusing the tailored seed. Heck, even from the story...what they were doing was killing the variation anyway. So, fine...maybe P. camemberti rides off into the sunset. So what? Use a different one. Use MORE than one, so maybe not every Camembert producer does the same thing. If anything, this really sounds like a very important, USEFUL reset. It's not a call of alarm, it's a call to awaken.

Hey, it took JayZ-level wealth to buy a ticket. Well, your argument basically kills any hope for Charger fans, as the Spanos family's been doing moronic things for a long time...like pulling the team out of San Diego. The Clippers are getting a new building of their own: https://www.nba.com/clippers/intuitdome And an interesting article about the behind-the-scenes machinations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intuit_Dome

That's another approach, to be sure.

In general, mechanically, yes. But it simply does not fit the character concept. And, note that the same issues arise with Drain, Transform, Entangle, or Flash that are delivered by touch...AKA, no range. That's a specific situation...don't need to go to a character or style build, see 6E1 231, adding Ranged to an HA. The baseline is, you can't add Ranged to an HA.

Many of the Ranged Combat pre-built maneuvers include a Ranged Mod...which you never use. So you're going custom there. Ranged Maneuvers also have a very limited set of elements...neither FMove nor Disable are defined, and they should be supported. It's gonna be a hybrid of some sort no matter what, it seems to me. I actually have no problem with --from Ranged maneuvers, the bases (Disarm, Strike, Throw) and the elements for OCV, DCV, Throw (when Strike is the basis), v/10 (which is target's velo), and if appropriate, the Half Move Required and Time+ restrictive elements. Using +OCV/DCV is 2 points per probably gives better balance in any case. because without + to damage or a Range Mod bonus, the maneuvers are really cheap. --from HTH, helpful would at least be Disable, Disarm (again, as a helpful element when Strike is the basis...it uses the power of the Blast), FMove, Throw, v/10 and v/6 but ONLY treating the target's velo, not the relative velos involved; and most of the restrictives for HTH don't seem to be problematic, altho they might not apply that often. I actually built the no-range concept I'm developing like this, as this has been going on. His attacks: --normal attack based on ED; does no KB --AVAD Power Def --NND, Does Body, Power Def --Flash, Sight and Hearing, targets Power Def (same level as Flash Def, so this is a +0 swap) The maneuvers: 5 -- Disabling Strike: 1/2 Phase, +1 OCV, +1 DCV, Weapon Strike; Disable Limb; Target Falls 4 -- Disarming Strike: 1/2 Phase, +1 OCV, +0 DCV, Weapon Strike; Target is Disarmed 4 -- Balanced Strike: 1/2 Phase, +1 OCV, +1 DCV, Weapon Strike 5 -- Evasive Strike: 1/2 Phase, +0 OCV, +1 DCV, FMove, Weapon Strike Remember that +1 OCV or DCV is 2 points. Just because the attack doesn't do KB per se, doesn't mean it can't be disruptive enough to force the target to drop something, or lose balance, I figure, but...I might pull it if it messes up those attacks.

Blast (No Range) is the flip side of Telekinesis...Telekinesis says you can use "STR" at range, and thus (with FIne Manip and GM approval) martial maneuvers. But...ranged or HTH? They're neither fish nor fowl entirely. Blast (No Range) is the same in that regard...it's not ranged because of the limitation, but it's not entirely HTH. But to me, someone whose power set centers on no-range blasts should be training in a manner similar to an HTH type, particularly with issues like balance, footwork, stance, and recovery. IOW: martial arts training makes perfect sense. So...how should we build maneuvers for someone with real combat training with his no-range blasts (or flashes, or RKAs). There are 2 approaches. 1. Use HTH martial maneuvers as the baseline, but no damage can be added...period. HTH martial maneuvers require that an attack uses STR. EDIT: maneuver elements that add velocity based on *your* movement, such as Passing Strike, use momentum as a form of additional STR, so they can't be used either. If the extra damage comes from the opponent's movement, like most Trip variations? That's up to the GM. 2. Use Ranged martial maneuvers as the baseline, but obviously range mods never come into play. Differences: --HTH martial art maneuver construction supports certain things that aren't included in Ranged...Grab Opponent, FMove attacks, and Bind, Disarm, and Grab Weapon. Stylistically, these feel like they should be allowed. --HTH martial arts allows up to +4 OCV/DCV. Cost is 1 point per for 1-2 then 2 per. Ranged, the max is +2, and it's 2 points per. --Opponent Falls is 1 point for HTH, 2 points for Ranged. I'm leaning to using HTH maneuvers...probably mostly custom ones, but there may be a good enough group that don't improve damage. Which also means, no HTH damage classes, of course. And for skills that connect to a combat style (HTH or Ranged), Blast No Range falls into the HTH class. It does NOT mean that the power "HTH Attack" can augment a Blast No Range.

Oh, yeah, there was a...bizarre political ad, I thought. On a few levels.

The surprise to me was Temu...because they bought a full "sponsored by" on-air spot, along with 2-3 ads. That's not cheap at all. TBH, by and large, they go in one ear and out the other. The Arnie ad sticks because that got played a lot all day...ESPN and ESPN2 had 3-4 games on, as well as Fox having the Iowa-Nebraska women's game...Clark failed to score in the 4th so ended up 8 points shy, AND Iowa blew a 14 point lead after 3 quarters. My general sense was there were some cute ones early, but I couldn't tell you who did them w/o looking them up. Google "Super Bowl ads" and you'll find multiple sites, I expect, that have at least synopses of all of em, and probably the commercials themselves most of the time.

Can anyone, anywhere, consider Mahomes as anything but the most impactful player in the game? EDIT: anyone who's not implicitly biased, that is... AND IT'S OVER!!! Little fake, roll to option... TD KC!!!

<sigh> I sure hope these Arnie "Agent State Farm" ads die, soon. REAL soon.

My take is, on that basis, I can't lose, as we noted earlier. I was actually hoping for KC to not score at the end of the first half...because having 0 and 0 on your squares game, hit on both the first AND second quarters, would've been very humorous. OK, to me. This has been a high level chess game between the offenses and the defenses.

The base TL is left to DM discretion. 1 TL is given as 10-20 degrees F (6E2 145); I just split it and call it 15 degrees. (Note that there is errata for this; the 3-5 degrees C is wrong, and the errata makes it 5-11 degrees C.) Note that cold weather gear is often given in a similar manner..."good to +20 degrees F" is everyday winter gear, "keeps you warm to -40 degrees F" is expedition wear...and is likely fairly pricey. The two are effectively the same. My personal preference, I'll add since LL brought it up, is to rework Life Support using the TL approach...but I also sharply limit what "environmental protection" can mean. Environmental damage is slow; if something is intense enough to do fast damage? I don't treat it as being covered, even if LS: Heat or Cold is left at 2 points. 2 levels of TL tolerance is 1 point...can be +2, +1/-1, or -2. I'd call the base comfort zone as 60-80 degrees, so 2 points means you're fine from about 30 degrees to about 110 degrees...and note that lightweight clothing can improve the cold weather tolerance by 1 level *easily*. I prefer the granularity this provides. YMMV.

In general, my thought is, why does it need definition at all? It's off the rack cold-weather gear, it's trivial and reasonably inexpensive to buy. Not everything needs definition in game terms; common sense is enough. EDIT: to expand on this, I feel like, if I start assigning game terms to things, then I have to abide by them. I'd rather not. What did you get, how good is it? Are we talking a winter coat, or gear to run the Itidarod or something equally insane? Conditions matter, too. Went shopping earlier...well, yesterday now. 42 degrees, intermittent light rain...so humidity was high. Little bit of wind. Raw kind of day...felt quite a bit colder than 42, but dry and decently sunny with no breeze. As long as I'm not stuck with game terms, I can say "oh man, you really want an extra under layer for your patrol tonight" and be done with it.

Absolutely, positively NOT passing TDs in a season. Like, not in the same county. Marino's 2nd year, the one time he made the SB...48 TDs passing. Tua had 29. Completion percentage, perhaps. Tua's was incredibly high, a touch below 70%. Dak's not even the best example there, I don't think...the poster boy there was Stafford. 5000 yards in a season, probably with 1500+ in the 4th quarter because the Lions were desperate. But definitely, Dak's well known to have a very poor track record in crunch time...for multiple years now. That's why, even if the exact computation is wonky, I prefer QBR to the simple rating...because QBR weighs the significance of a play, and its result. 10 yards on 3rd and 9...great. 10 yards on 3rd and 20...not very meaningful. 10 yards on 3rd and 9, 2 minutes left, down 4 points...BIG. 10 yards on 3rd and 20, 2 minutes left, down 17...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. So, sure, you can argue the weighting factors, but they *do* apply to everyone, so it's a fairly good comparative stat...especially with large-scale differences. Dak's been pretty mediocre most years...albeit NOT this year. He was tied with Purdy for best QBR this year. OK, the Giants and Commanders games helped. (As in 173-37 combined score for those 4 games.) But...we all know what he did against the Packers. He Dak'd. As slik noted, great raw numbers...largely in garbage time, altho ehh, one can argue the Cowboys made em sweat a bit...at 34-16 with time left. But that didn't last. And it's to slik's point that Dak had 12 TDs in those 4 games...surprisingly, none in the 40-0 wipeout of the Giants, but 4 in each of the other 3. So I'll just extend his point to "against soft competition." The Cowboys scored 35+ 7 times...the 4 noted, the Pats, Rams, and Seahawks. Well the Rams made the playoffs, tho, right? By winning 7 of their last 8...after the Cowboy game. That's another factor...it's been true for a long time that the first few weeks of the season are frequently NOT indicative of the real quality of a team. That's only grown in the last several years. Some teams are simply not ready to play at all...Broncos would be the strongest example.

Rose covered glasses, meet clickbait....

"Leading" according to whom?

It's not torturing the numbers at all, mostly. It's taking the numbers out of context. Aikman's a really tricky case. Remember how BAD!!!! the Cowboys were in Landry's last 2 years? 3-13, then 1-15 in Aikman's rookie year, where he goes 0-11 as a starter. Rock bottom. Jimmy comes in, in '90. Aikman goes 7-8, then 7-5 in '91...improvements. Then the 4 year run that got him into the Hall. Cowboys went 49-15, won 3 SBs. Aikman was 46-14, 67 TDs, 39 INTs. He only had 15 passing TDs in '93, the 2nd Super Bowl win. '96 was a pretty good year, then he (and the team) slipped greatly. '97 was Switzer's last year, then it was Chan Gailey and Dave Campo. Aikman played in the era where running backs were still huge: https://medium.com/top-level-sports/top-10-nfl-running-back-of-the-90s-b650b09beb61 Bettis. Thurman Thomas. Terrell Davis for a couple years. Smith. SANDERS. And the Cowboys had, I always thought, the best all-around fullback of that time in Johnston. Dalton's career started as the shift from running to passing started...IIRC, it wasn't *as* dominant as it is now, but still, the signs were clear. In his good years with the Bengals...heck, they were pretty much like the Cowboys. Regular season...decent. Post season? Turned back into pumpkins. But how much was Dalton's fault? He was hurt for the 2015 debacle. LONG term success is incredibly rare. Aikman's overall career numbers are not impressive...but his top 4, different story. Dalton couldn't elevate a mediocre team that much...IIRC, lots of people blame Marvin Lewis for much of that mediocrity. If Dalton plays through the 2015 year, and the Bengals win a couple playoff games...the whole storyline of his career might be different. Dalton never stood out.