unclevlad

After his term...that's '27. I suppose nothing's impossible, but...to what post? And is DeSantis going to be viewed as loyal *enough*? I'm not gonna say it can't happen, but I don't think Trump's people will rush to bring him in.

I cannot believe all the facts are known, even taking potentially significant alcohol consumption into account. This is tragic and freaky...on many levels.

Yeah, they start their rundown with the total botch job in re the campaign launch on Twitter...I've seen that one noted in some other places. Even if it worked, it was boneheaded. And their last one is, as has been said here... Florida has term limits for the governor, and DeSantis is in his last term. It wouldn't surprise me that his political career may basically be over. Maybe he can win a Senate seat in Florida? Plausible, I suppose, but he's coming out of this *so* battered, even that seems unlikely. Granted, he's already done enough damage to his state and the country for a lifetime.....

SF in the Super Bowl is a change of pace? If they make it, it'll be #8...Pats have 11, but this'd tie the Boys, Steelers......and Broncos. Which is hard to believe, kinda. NOT a team that would come to mind, but they have had their runs.

mmm...CMC yes, but even more, the balance the Niners have. CMC *forces* you to address the run, and the Detroit secondary got burned a LOT during the season. It's a Sunday night and not even 8...and the football's over...??? Same game times next week...and the Aussie Open will be over by then. Love to see the Lions make it, but I rather doubt it. No real preference between KC and Baltimore; wasn't a big Lamar fan, but he's really balanced his game out this year.

I was picking the Chiefs based on them being more reliable, but you're right...the Bills made no big mistakes. Until the kick. Early lines...Niners -7. Detroit's secondary held up against the Bucs, but.... Ravens -3.5. If anything that maybe feels a bit low...? If the Bills can run the ball like they did, then what's Jackson gonna do to them?

Oh my...oh my, oh my, oh my........ EVIL FLASHBACK!!!! WIDE RIGHT!

I feel that what happened with the Packers this year, shows the issue with placating/kowtowing to Rodgers for the last couple years. Unless the entire offensive staff is happy running what Rodgers wants...and builds the team to that exclusively...there's conflict. And Love's development is stalled...while you waste his rookie contract years, the cheap ones. Rodgers also ties up far too much in the way of resources, while not producing at the level of his contract.

Looks like the NH polls are saying DeSantis will be left in the dust...because he dropped out of the race today.

Hooooollly close shave, Batman!!!!! Love has a very good game overall, but breaks every rule of QB play at the end, Niners *escape*.

I'm not going to even consider the notion that Trump is the Anti-Christ. It gives him far too much credit.

ESPN bottom line says Mike McCarthy isn't getting an extension, so he'll be coaching on an expiring contract. So...what, conference championship game or bust, right? And definitely #1 on the Hot Seat Parade, albeit not necessarily for the regular season...

11 plays, 78 yards, 7+ minutes, game over. 31-10 Ravens. Championship-quality drive.

mmm...not looking good for Houston. I have a hard time thinking they'll get a lot better on offense, so down 7 now...even mid 2nd...they needed the lead, IMO. Ravens will score some more...maybe not a lot, but enough to keep it out of fluke-play territory.

I said dial...so...analog. See, that's why you don't want them new-fangled digital thingies. (Apparently a substantial portion of school-age kids can't even read an analog clock...<sigh>.)

The article's subscriber-only, but the headline and lead are enough. From Business Insider: Digital, perhaps not...but print media, yes. And the digital market is horrendously overpopulated, IMO.

A stuck 24-hour dial clock is right once a day.

Good news! Cowboys decide to stick with McCarthy. Now we know we won't have to listen to the hype for long, come next season's playoffs. Also wouldn't be surprised if they actually have some bad luck with injuries and such...and don't even make the playoffs. They have 9 Pro Bowlers this year. They'll have a division winner's schedule, which is a bit tougher. They get AFC North...physical games, if nothing else, plus the Lions and Niners.

Interesting point from NYT email I just got. The headline is, do political ads still matter? The gist: I definitely feel the "smaller universe" is a big point, particularly WRT Trump vs. not-Trump, because the points have dominated the news cycle...Jan. 6th, for several years, and the legal issues and trials, what, a year or so. OK, so perhaps Haley was only about taking 2nd away from DeSantis, but still, that's a lotta work and money for a couple delegates. And cord cutting is definitely A Thing. I'd also be curious to get a detailed examination on where the campaigns are buying those ads...because it's possible, the effective reach stats may well be *lower*. My thought...couple weeks ago, I commented about Haley and DeSantis ads. Very likely during some football game. I know I saw multiple Haley ads at that time...but is there additional impact, is there notably improved coverage, in buying multiple slots? I believe the first 2 Haley ads showed within...half an hour of each other? Feels like a LOT of overlap that won't do any good. From a media perspective, tho, Trump has the overwhelming advantage in not needing to spend money. I don't believe in "there's no such thing as bad publicity"...but all downsides WRT the Trump trials have already been turned into road pizza. So he continues to be able to portray himself as the martyr, the fighter, and paint his enemies with green vitriol. As such, this is a bizarre Republican primary season.

Using 6E's half die for the stun multiplier basically quashed the VERY high STUN potential. Rolling 12d6, 48+ STUN: 18% 51+ STUN: 8% 54+ STUN: 2.5% 4d6 KA, the high STUN needs a high BODY roll, then a 3 STUN mult (1 in 3). So, for example, 48 STUN is 1/3 of 16 BODY. 48+ STUN: 11% 51+ STUN: 8% 54+ STUN: 5.3% 57+ STUN: 3.2% The factor is that you've only got the 1 in 3 chance of a 3, on the STUN mult...well, OK, 24 BODY and a 2 STUN mult gives 48 STUN total, but that's minuscule. For 42 STUN normal, it's 53%. For 14+ BODY *and* a 3 STUN, it's 19%, factoring in the 21+ BODY with a 2 STUN MULT (adds 1%). So, broadly speaking... 1/3 of the time, a KA will do no, or very little STUN...roll in the lower half for BODY, then 1 or 2 STUN mult. 1/6 of the time, upper half for BODY, but a 1 for STUN...does no STUN. Roll 15-18 BODY, 30%; 2 STUN mult. So, +10% So, a full 60% of your attacks will get very little STUN through. Or, for the exhaustive...this is rounded to the nearest percent of STUN from the attack: P(total stun at least 4) -- 100 P(total stun at least 5) -- 100 P(total stun at least 6) -- 100 P(total stun at least 7) -- 100 P(total stun at least 😎 -- 99 P(total stun at least 9) -- 98 P(total stun at least 10) -- 97 P(total stun at least 11) -- 95 P(total stun at least 12) -- 92 P(total stun at least 13) -- 88 P(total stun at least 14) -- 85 P(total stun at least 15) -- 81 P(total stun at least 16) -- 77 P(total stun at least 17) -- 73 P(total stun at least 18) -- 70 P(total stun at least 19) -- 66 P(total stun at least 20) -- 65 P(total stun at least 21) -- 62 P(total stun at least 22) -- 61 P(total stun at least 23) -- 58 P(total stun at least 24) -- 58 P(total stun at least 26) -- 54 P(total stun at least 27) -- 50 P(total stun at least 28) -- 49 P(total stun at least 30) -- 45 P(total stun at least 32) -- 39 P(total stun at least 33) -- 36 P(total stun at least 34) -- 33 P(total stun at least 36) -- 31 P(total stun at least 38) -- 25 P(total stun at least 39) -- 24 P(total stun at least 40) -- 20 P(total stun at least 42) -- 19 P(total stun at least 44) -- 15 P(total stun at least 45) -- 15 P(total stun at least 46) -- 11 P(total stun at least 48) -- 11 P(total stun at least 51) -- 8 P(total stun at least 54) -- 5 P(total stun at least 57) -- 3 P(total stun at least 60) -- 2 P(total stun at least 63) -- 1 P(total stun at least 66) -- 0 P(total stun at least 69) -- 0 P(total stun at least 72) -- 0 Now, for comparison...roll 12d6 1,000,000 times, and I get the following: P(total stun at least 16) -- 100 P(total stun at least 17) -- 100 P(total stun at least 18) -- 100 P(total stun at least 19) -- 100 P(total stun at least 20) -- 100 P(total stun at least 21) -- 100 P(total stun at least 22) -- 100 P(total stun at least 23) -- 100 P(total stun at least 24) -- 100 P(total stun at least 25) -- 100 P(total stun at least 26) -- 100 P(total stun at least 27) -- 100 P(total stun at least 28) -- 99 P(total stun at least 29) -- 99 P(total stun at least 30) -- 98 P(total stun at least 31) -- 97 P(total stun at least 32) -- 96 P(total stun at least 33) -- 95 P(total stun at least 34) -- 92 P(total stun at least 35) -- 90 P(total stun at least 36) -- 86 P(total stun at least 37) -- 82 P(total stun at least 38) -- 77 P(total stun at least 39) -- 72 P(total stun at least 40) -- 66 P(total stun at least 41) -- 60 P(total stun at least 42) -- 53 P(total stun at least 43) -- 47 P(total stun at least 44) -- 40 P(total stun at least 45) -- 34 P(total stun at least 46) -- 28 P(total stun at least 47) -- 23 P(total stun at least 48) -- 18 P(total stun at least 49) -- 14 P(total stun at least 50) -- 10 P(total stun at least 51) -- 8 P(total stun at least 52) -- 5 P(total stun at least 53) -- 4 P(total stun at least 54) -- 3 P(total stun at least 55) -- 2 P(total stun at least 56) -- 1 P(total stun at least 57) -- 1 The higher STUN rolls, either way, aren't that different. The problem is that the LOW!! STUN from the KA is extremely common...and it's extremely RARE for the normal attack. Looking at your test construction...Hardpoint has very low total defenses, only 20. OK, he's hard to stun...but he's going down on the 2nd hit from normal attacks over half the time. Maelstrom will probably not get KO'd by 2 normal energy attacks, at least. But my problem's the BODY damage. Part of it is...someone dropped down to 0 BODY or below, should lose considerable effectiveness. OK, it's heroic/superheroic, so...yeah, valiantly fighting on and all that. I get it. But the flip side, to me, is...being that seriously injured *should be something to avoid.* It should not be considered a normal or routine aspect of the combat style. And this is where KAs have problems: because, for the same DCs, the risk of high BODY is SO much higher. This forces fairly significant investments into resistant defenses, or potentially...forget long recovery times, hello risk of character death. Note that Maelstrom isn't a "normal defenses" guy...40% of his defenses are *resistant*.

Yeah, my feeling is that in 2020, the Democrats were completely galvanized to vote. This time...I hope they're still galvanized, because the Republicans will trumpet the "don't let it get stolen again!" line. They'll be out in force as well. I expect that we'll have a record turnout.

I don't see the implication, and by and large, I don't see large numbers of Republicans turning away from Trump. Because, ok, Trump might not be their first choice, but they'll still vote for him. IMO, the compelling number was what I noted earlier...65% still felt the election was stolen. That bloc will never vote Biden.

picks, most confident to least confident... Lions over Bucs. Niners over Packers Ravens over Texans. I'm still not totally sold on Lamar Jackson. Chiefs over Bills. I'm always a bit worried about teams that sat out, at this point...point to the Lions. And the Bucs...the Eagles are no measuring stick now. The first 3 games could all turn into blowouts. Chiefs-Bills...who avoids critical mistakes? Weather forecast is not great...mid teens, but 15-20 mph winds...but could be a WHOLE lot worse.

In Ashes Born (Nathan Lowell again, 2015)

Trump wins Iowa. DeSantis finishes slightly ahead of Haley. Ramaswamy suspends his campaign, getting less than 8%.