unclevlad

Who made that argument? Not me. I said the game being played now is not the game of even 15 years ago, and completely different from 30. You brought up Ryan; when's the last time any pitcher was left in to throw a 200 pitch game? Nor did I ever even suggest it's how the game should be played; I'm stating how it *is* played today. Who's bucking all the trends, and which trends? Sox? Not in pitching. No Sox starter threw 200 innings; only Porcello broke 180. 4 different relievers had 60+ appearances and innings pitched...so we're not talking specialists. All four are high strikeout pitchers...only Joe Kelly had a strikeouts per 9 innings rate of less than 11. Sox hitters aren't so much breaking the trend, as knowing when the trend is moronic. Pure metrics-based decision making has flaws. Some because the metrics are flawed or incomplete; others because they're misused or even misunderstood. Approach A may be correct 90% of the time, and thus define the trend...but there's 10% of the time when it's not. That's not defying the data, it's delving deeper into it.

We're not talking 2005, we're talking 2018. I'm saying in baseball, as it's playing the last 6-8 years in particular (but a trend for 15-20)...only a handful of pitchers don't get pulled today. And that's how we have to frame the context. Sandy Koufax started 43 and 41 games in 65-66, completing 27 each season and going well over 300 innings. In 2018, Scherzer led MLB with...220. No pitcher in baseball has exceeded 235 in the last 4 years. Since 2005, 250's been reached just *twice*. Heck, you can actually see a radical dropoff in the last 2 years. 2016, NL and AL leaders were about the same, at ~230. 2017, drops to 207 NL, 214 AL. 2018 it only recovers to 220 and 215. Here's a chart I made up. Data is the innings pitched leader in the AL and NL from '95 forward. And these are your aces...or at least the ones who stay mostly healthy. (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/IP_leagues.shtml ... gotta love em) Hey, I don't like where baseball's going either, but decent starting pitching gets SERIOUSLY expensive fast. 28 starters made $13M or more this season. And the lost time from injuries! Found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_baseball_players_who_underwent_Tommy_John_surgery It's FRIGHTENING to see the increase in numbers. This isn't just pitchers, it's everyone, but 10 in 2013, then 21, 28, only 14 in 2016, 21, and 25 this year. Note, those were the years where the surgery was performed. There were also some players who had to have it *twice* and I may have missed the second one. And we know how long the recovery takes, so...there's a lot of lost time there. But probably first and foremost, it's the metrics. Most pitchers' batting average against *jumps* on the 3rd time through the order, so the wisdom has become, crank of the parade of HEAT! from the bullpen. What good team doesn't have its bullpen set up for 7th, 8th, 9th? Maybe the Red Sox, but they just bludgeoned you so it wasn't as big a deal. But that's baseball today. 5 inning starts from probably half the starters out there...that's OK. Hitters who never adjust. 3 true outcomes as the holy mantra. Games too boring to watch, just catch the highlights. Fiddly-ass, terrible replay rules (oh, his hand lifted up off the base for 1/4 of a second...OUT!) The play's only gonna probably get worse, tho.

I doubt Manny Mota types ever make even AAA today. Or ok, maybe makes AAA, but not a snowball's chance of more. No pop. Just under 3800 ABs in his career...31 home runs. Not that many doubles either...only 125. Granted it was the pitching-heavy era, but singles hitters who aren't consistent Gold Glove candidates don't make it. Defensively, most of his starts were in left; that's almost a dump spot nowadays for another 30 HR, 150 SO bat that hopefully won't make TOO many errors. Christopher: But it's not, 95% of the time. 5th inning or later...yes, you pull him if you're down, barring fairly narrow situations. Who you gonna let pitch a third time through the lineup in the first place?

Well, there is no D in Carolina, so they just lived up to their name. On that point, one has to wonder if Le'Veon is regretting his actions.

So it seems like Trump's choice for acting AG is actually not Constitutional. Gist is, AG's position requires someone confirmed by the Senate. There are people who have been...but Trump's lackey is not one of them.

So Congress subpoenas. DOJ says no. Where does it go from there? Oh.... Now maybe the Court backs Congress; it's entirely possible they'd do that. I remember some issues that were generally similar where the votes were rather strong in cases where the administration went notably too far. However, I don't want to bank on that with THIS court. I have seen it suggested (hoped?) that maybe Mueller's already got grand jury testimony all done and indictments already exist...sealed. THOSE could not be stopped, as they're already existing records. Prosecutors leaking won't have that much credibility, and Trump's already shown he's Teflon against allegations with that little weight behind them. A leak from the Mueller investigators would probably HELP Trump more than hurt him, as he'll just spin it as Yet Another Witch Hunt. I mean, really, mega...can our general opinion on Trump really get any worse than it already is? I suppose there's always a chance this would be a straw to break Trump's back, but I doubt it.

No, that sounds exactly like a Trump appointee. Those actions would have high deniability and low visibility. And it's exactly how Trumps boys are gutting, for example, the EPA.

Also, consider this. Any moves to quash Mueller that have to go to court? Go to the new Court, with Kavanaugh. And Whitaker seems rather more likely to try to pull the plug.

If Twain were alive today the saying would be lie, damn lies, and Donald Trump translation: 30 seconds' worth of his post-election harangue...i mean press conference... warning, any more than that, and a barf bag is suggested.....

Hey, the Raiders aren't just tanking, they're running a pump from the outside to drain things faster. Can any team with a shred of self-respect match that?

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html Still think the flu's nothing? 80,000 deaths. That is an eye-popping number.

Yeah, in some ways this is likely to be the most messy outcome, and a big negative is that messy is chaotic, and Trump thrives on chaos. And it's a ways away, but don't be surprised if there's a government shutdown in fall 2019.

I'm just hoping it won't turn out to be Nightmare on Elm Street as the evening progresses.

Plus, high-volatility rolls can dictate extreme tactics. If you can one-shot an opponent that needs a lot of grinding down otherwise, then it makes sense to go for the constant head shot or whatever...so *your side* doesn't get smacked by one. Much of this is going to be group-style dependent, too. And group-tactical. How much negative impact would a PC death have? What kinda guidelines are there for attacks and defenses...is the volatility being considered? That sort of stuff. Or, if the volatility is high...do PCs go for The Best Defense is a Good Offense, and push for fast drops with just a little luck on their side? A major risk here can be an arms race, if you will, between the PCs and the GM. It's generally not good GMing but it can easily happen.....

Biology wouldn't be a lot better, as there's still access to plenty of nasty stuff. But the perp is just one sick SOB.

Failing to soak is irrelevant; we're talking about the *potential* damage the attack can do, not the actual. Soak's part of the defense, not part of the attack. And yes, you can get a triple explosion...even on 1 die. What we're talking about is the statistical analysis, what's gonna happen over the long term. The AVERAGE damage on an exploding d6 is only 20% higher than on a straight d6. On the flip side, the *variance* is enormous...it's over 10. So with 3d exploding, it's 30...so the standard deviation is 5.5. And this is an open-ended distribution; there's no upper bound. We're often a little below the mean...but we can go WAY above it from time to time. Wrote up a quick and dirty Java program that generated 20,000 sets of exploding 3d6 rolls. Here's a frequency chart: The x axis is a little off, and I'm not that driven to fix it. The left-most result is 3, and the 3 most likely rolls are 9, 10, and 11...which is actually what you'd expect. The probability that the total will exceed 23 is less than 5%. Contrast that with "crits doing double damage." When a crit *does* happen, it's 50-50 to be 22 or higher. Another point. In exploding dice games, you always know the risk is there, so you change what's considered adequate defenses. In Hero, if you want to basically bounce 3d6 killing, you go 12-14 resistant and call it good. Or 8-10 perhaps, if you're bloody hard to hit and don't mind a potentially grittier tone. If playing with 3d6 exploding using Hero's damage and defense concepts, you probably need about 15...and you're still looking at getting mauled for a lot of Body. (And both damage negation and reduction become MASSIVELY more valuable.) In regular-dice Hero with crits, the crits are uncommon...but you're not prepared for them.

On the global warming front... https://www.tomshardware.com/news/environmental-impact-cryptocurrency-mining,38023.html Because mining rigs are centered on honkin' big, fast graphics cards...they run the parallel operations better than general-use CPUs. But they're POWER HUNGRY, and quite often, this is ALL they're doing. I've never worried about buying a high-end graphics card cuz I don't do games that need them, but I did watch the ads and availability issues. Prices did SKYROCKET and no one ever kept any in stock. And now...the concern is the energy consumption just from this may well contribute notably to global warming. Lest ye scoff...how many people actually *realize* the energy cost from running their systems full-out 24/7? They see the allure of "free money"...not the actual cost. And given the sheer number of GITS who scrabble desperately for pocket change.....I can see the problem..........

How bout them Cowboys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yeah boy, that Jerry's a genius.

Mind Control is a very bad fit...not completely wrong, but Mental Illusions is a better fit. Plus, Mental Illusions DOES support doing Stun...even Stun and Body...which Mind Control cannot do. To be sure, they generally will both work, they're the same cost, and the fundamental level of effort is more or less the same. I daresay people prefer Mind Control because it's probably the more generally useful power; not only can you neutralize someone, but you can actually turncoat them. There may be ways to do this with a mental illusion but it's gonna be MUCH harder. Oh, and +20 Illusion can force the victim to think the illusion was real after it dissipates, which is better. +10 Mind Control, vic doesn't remember actions...kind of meaningless. +20, vic remembers AND thinks they were natural. So there's more things you can do to hose the vic...probably including having them debilitated for a while after the illusion's gone. WIth Mind Control, you can do that with a command like "run all out until you collapse"...but that's rather more obvious and not at all natural. Come to think, if you want to induce something that visually looks like a grand mal seizure...which would be a really good idea, because someone just standing there paralyzed is clearly under SOME kind of outside influence...I think that would only be possible with Mental Illusions, and that'd be at the +40, do Stun, level. AND...do enough Stun and you'll get the poor sucker pulling a Rip van Winkle.

Pariah, you've got my sympathies! I hear ya! Pretty sure I've only gotten 2 calls today, but I was actually tempted to post that today should be declared National Don't Answer the Phone Day I think it's only been 2 because a) I switched numbers on my landline about a year ago, and b) it's now VOIP, so the call blocking is more automated. But most likely, it's because the new number's not out there. Neither number was recognizable, tho, so....I'm comfortable assuming they were political spam.

Facebook also deleted Trump's last-minute scare immigration ad because of blatant misleading/false statements. I think the RPG.net explanation for their decision is crucially important. Effectively, they're asserting Trump's comments slide near/into hate speech, or support for hate-related groups.

One thing of concern with a SPD 12 villain is how easy it might be for him to escape...which may or may not be a bad thing. But something to keep in mind.

Grand mal seizures can also cause memory loss. I quite literally remember almost nothing from when I was a kid, until my seizures reduced. Even as a teen, I didn't remember. I wouldn't do this as a Drain, I'd do it as a Transform because the All or Nothing aspect feels more correct. You either induce the seizure or you don't, because when in a seizure, the effect is severe. That said, I also like the Mental Illusion approach...NOT Mind Control, as you can't tell him what to do, you're imposing a mental state on him. BUT, I'd probably argue for EGO+40 required...EGO+30 to reach "victim no longer interacts with environment" and the +10 to take stun damage.

Yeah, the mean value of an exploding die is actually not *that* much higher. Say we roll a single d6 36 times. Then the theoretical result is 6 each of 1-5 (averaging to 3) and 6 6's. The 6's get re-rolled...one of each. For the sake of cutting things off, let's just assert that the last case here does NOT roll a 3rd 6. Call it a 4 instead. So, 30 of the rolls give a total of 90. The other 6 give 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 16 (the double explosion). That's another 61, so the total for all 36 rolls is 151. Ergo, the average roll is now 4.2...rather than 3.5. Exploding d6's adds 20% to the mean damage. What it does do is massively increase the variance...because the distribution now is *sharply* non-normal.

Actually, Oklahoma is giving up 28 a game on average, as of this week. And Texas Tech is #9 in scoring offense at over 42 a game.