2021 Baseball Thread

[unclevlad]

None of this, unfortunately, gets us any closer to a new CBA and a season.

 

IMO this is also a HORRIBLE time to have a stoppage.  People are Not Happy Campers, what with rising costs, continuing restrictions, and the general uncertainly many still face.  People want Normal.  Baseball is perhaps the quintessence of Normal, at its best.  Millionaire players whining about billionaire owners never sits *well*...and right now, I think it'll lead to even more severe backlash than the last one in the 90s.  

[unclevlad]

Oh joy.  And now MLB is seeking the power to reduce the size of the Domestic Reserve List, which says how many minor league players a team can have on its roster, at its discretion.  

 

This might not be a knee-jerk rejection, but it's close.  Worse, it feels seriously antagonizing to the players, which can't make them more amenable to compromise on other things.  Particularly after MLB just dropped so many minor league teams so recently.  MLB claims they've got no immediate plans to reduce the number, but that's standard posturing.  Like the Nets saying they weren't gonna trade Harden, a day before they did.

 

The Orioles are the only team that hasn't listed their spring training dates as TBA...but since pitchers and catchers are supposed to report on the 15th...it's superfluous.  Owners' proposals haven't addressed anything substantial, is the sense I have from the reporting.  So at this point, I think there is no chance of a 162 game season.  At all.  And I'm not gonna be shocked if the 2022 season was roughly as long as the 2020 season.

[Pariah]

16 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

And I'm not gonna be shocked if the 2022 season was roughly as long as the 2020 season.

 

We should be so lucky as to have a season that long this year. Honestly, I can see this thing completely wiping baseball out for 2022.

[unclevlad]

I'm retaining a shred of optimism.

[Pariah]

"It is impossible for an optimist to be pleasantly surprised."

 

~Coit-Murphy’s Statement on the Power of Negative Thinking

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

 

[Pariah]

MLB: "This is our new proposal."

 

MLBPA: "WTAF? That's even more screwed up that what you proposed the last time!"

 

MLB: "We're done here."

 

MLB Press Conference: "The Players' Association reuses to negotiate in good faith." 

[unclevlad]

In other baseball news, the jury took little time finding Eric Kay guilty in the death of Tyler Skaggs.  Min sentence is 20 years, max is life.  

I suspect testimony from players, especially Matt Harvey's, was damning.  Harvey as much admitted that his testimony might well end his career.

[unclevlad]

Further on the non-negotiations...

 

Deadline to retain opening day:  Feb. 28th.

 

Jeff Passan commenting on SC...both sides are heading for a cliff, because there's no institutional memory.  They've forgotten how ugly things were after the '95 strike.

 

Snide comment from Kevin Negandhi...the session today lasted less time than many innings.

[slikmar]

And sadly, I think most fans have no idea who to side with. I am not sure I do. The things I wouldn't mind seeing changed, involving salaries and stuff, I am not sure are being addressed. I think the majority of the members of the mlbpa are the ones being marginalized by the process. Teams now want either the superstar player for 25+ mil a year (2-4 of these to compete) OR guys on rookie salaries. the players, to me, being shoved aside are the journeymen who were part of every team in the day, the workers you could root for every year are now being signed to 1 year low million contracts (which is part of the problem millionaires feuding with billionaires over how big the pie they should get, so even these guys, to the average person, are earning a fortune each year). Not sure where this is going to end as, and I understand most don't think anything the owners have brought is reasonable, the mlbpa apparently have not moved one iota from their initial demands to try win back everything they have given away over the last 30 years or so.

[Pariah]

While it's hard for me to really relate to the amounts of money being thrown around here, I know that the ownership of my team (the Rockies) has long demonstrated that they don't care about the quality of the product they put on the field, just the number of zeroes in the year-end balance sheet. Heck, they effectively fielded a AAA team last year that overachieved in many ways. And then there was that decision to send the face of the franchise to the Cardinals—and to continue to pay him $50M to play for them.

 

So, I'll be siding with the players on this one, because our owners suck. 

[unclevlad]

I'd side with the players IF the additional money will give them a substantial raise.  I'd also like to see minor leaguers get more, especially given that the owners seem to be shafting the entire structure.

 

Overall, yeah, I think there are far too many owners trying to squeeze out as much as they reasonably can.  Not to the point of penny ante BS a la Major Leagues, but in other ways where they can get away with it.  Looking...since 2000, there are 7 teams that have made the playoffs 2 or 3 times.  The Twins have made it 9 times...and won *1* series.  The A's have made it 11 times...and won 2 series.  3 more teams (Mets, Rockies, Reds) have made it 4 times...and the Reds have no series wins.  They're the only team with no playoff series wins;  the aforementioned Twins, Pirates, and Padres have won 1.

 

Actually, the Pirates are probably the poster children for being dirt cheap and not caring.  Not quite the worst record in this stretch...close.  But so many lost seasons.  The Orioles are the recent poster children...in the last 3 full seasons, an average of *111* losses.  Not counting 2020, of course.  There's a complete...heck, that's not a dumpster fire, that's the entire dump site burning.

 

MLB has substantial revenue sharing...PLUS local broadcasting rights.  The national broadcasts give em a $1.5B pie...so that's $50M per team right there.  Then there's out of market revenue, such as MLB Network games, where the lower-revenue teams get MORE.  THEN we get into local broadcasting rights, plus game-generated revenue.

 

2021 revenues were estimated at over $10B, up 11%;  player salaries at a touch over $4B, DOWN 4%.  And consistently down, not just due to funky Covid issues.

 

So it's really easy to see why the players are irate.  

 

EDIT:  oh yeah, and the consequence?

Spring training game postponements have started.  Was 26 Feb;  pushed back to 5 March.  Beginning to think it'll be February all right...of 2023....

[slikmar]

All you have to realize is that the Players hate the success of the Tampa Bay, because too many other teams outside LA, NY, Boston and a few others try to emulate them, poorly.

[Pariah]

A question I heard brought up the other day: Can the minor leaguers still play? Yes, MLB has locked out the players for the 30 NL and AL teams, but what about the rest? I mean, there's no chance that any of them will get called up, obviously, but could they have the opportunity to have a developmental season under their belts?

 

The two guys I heard talking about it didn't seem to know the answer. But they're more basketball guys anyway.

[Grailknight]

Yes, the Minor League season is still on schedule. 

[unclevlad]

Joy.

 

The owners are taking intransigence in a new direction.  They're asserting a Monday deadline or games will be cancelled.  Which means players forfeit 1/162th of their annual salary for every such game.  Doubleheaders are not on the table at all.  

 

I have to think it's a ploy to put economic pressure because, for lots of rookies, this will be a hardship.  I suspect the union has funds to cover some of this, tho, at least for some period.  

 

The owners may have a point;  doubleheaders are a PITA, to be sure.  There might be some revenue reductions...probably are.  Note, I do not say "losses."  They also call other things into question...7 inning games with doubleheaders?  If wear and tear is a problem, does this kill off-days and increase peak work loads?  Like 8 consecutive days with games...2 of which are doubleheaders.  Odds are, this would become necessary quickly.  But it's still, IMO, more about the owners trying to crack player solidarity.

[unclevlad]

MLB submits "best and final" offer.

MLBPA rejects it, to no one's surprise.

The first 2 series of the year have been cancelled.

 

If this was indeed MLB's best and final, or even anything CLOSE to it?  Gonna be a lonnnnnnnnnnnggg summer.

[Cancer]

Well, I can always watch collegiate ball live on campus.

[unclevlad]

I might have to do that, but I think they're mostly day games...ergo, TOO DAMN HOT.

 

Manfred in a release:  "everyone worked hard, they met for 9 days...."  

 

<BLEEP>

<DOUBLE BLEEP>
<long continuous string of BLEEPs>

 

9 days, when you KNEW NEITHER SIDE WAS CLOSE multiple MONTHS ago.  What kind of idiots do you take us for????

NY Post headline nailed it for a change..."Baseball Buffoons Blow It Again"

I am absolutely sure that the fan pushback will be UGLY, and the owners in particular will greatly regret their intransigence.

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

Interesting update on the talks. Spoiled for minor language. 

 

Spoiler

 

 

[slikmar]

I don't know for sure, but it does seem that everytime either side seemed to move to a compromise, it was the owners side who changed and the players saying no, here is the line. My brother pointed out, one side (the owners) said lets get a neutral arbitrator and the other (the players). said no. It's not that I agree with the owners per se, but a big problem with baseball right now, for competitive purposes, is that the top end players are earning so much more then anyone else and the MLBPA loves that, except you are costing about 60% of your players money and, being honest, it is driving more and more teams to the bottom. Boston, Both NY teams, LA don't care about the CBT and are willing to pay the extra now. Smaller market teams cannot make a mistake on a big contract, as it sinks their team for years. I agree there needs to be a minimum payroll, but, even more to the point, there needs to be some type of balance. I honestly begin to think baseball needs a hard cap.

In the above statement from Stripling, I would love to know what these items were that they hadn't seen before.

[unclevlad]

From what I've seen?  The owners have only appeared to move.  Nothing has been substantive.  

 

Even the smaller market teams make a SERIOUS amount of money from the various TV contracts.  I agree that they can't afford the ridiculous payrolls...but come on.  From a BetMGM article...not sure where they got it, but this info is out there.  The first number after the team name is the # of players on the roster:

 

1.    Los Angeles Dodgers    28    $194,839,000
2.    New York Yankees    27    $179,040,714
3.    New York Mets    26    $166,904,168
4.    Los Angeles Angels    27    $162,193,094
5.    San Diego Padres    29    $153,220,000
6.    Houston Astros    32    $150,300,833
7.    Boston Red Sox    26    $147,870,000
8.    Washington Nationals    26    $147,841,575
9.    Philadelphia Phillies    25    $139,665,962
10.    San Francisco Giants    28    $137,222,777
11.    Colorado Rockies    28    $129,513,333
12.    Chicago Cubs    26    $128,140,000
13.    Chicago White Sox    26    $120,454,166
14.    St. Louis Cardinals    26    $118,079,166
15.    Atlanta Braves    26    $112,759,375
16.    Cincinnati Reds    26    $119,442,380
27.    Minnesota Twins    27    $87,344,334
18    Toronto Blue Jays    28    $78,761,904
19.    Kansas City Royals    26    $75,945,000
20.    Arizona Diamondbacks    26    $74,490,001
21.    Milwaukee Brewers    26    $70,726,626
22.    Texas Rangers    26    $65,783,333
23.    Oakland Athletics    26    $64,340,833
24.    Detroit Tigers    26    $63,245,000
25.    Seattle Mariners    27    $57,235,000
26.    Miami Marlins    27    $44,200,000
27.    Tampa Bay Rays    31    $43,741,666
28.    Baltimore Orioles    26    $42,741,666
29.    Pittsburgh Pirates    26    $40,005,000
30.    Cleveland Indians    26    $23,555,000
 

THIS is the problem that the MLBPA sees.  The bottom 5 *combined* are spending less than the Dodgers.  If they were forced to, let's say, $70M per, that'd be another $150M.  But they have no reason to improve.  An article in Boston.com points out that every team is guaranteed to get $150M from TV and revenue sharing.  And in furtherance:  Manfred asserted the owners lost a ton of money over the last 5 years.  2020?  Certainly...but Forbes' values for each franchise rose by about $500M.  EACH.  

 

The owners have the PR outlet for their message, so it's easier for them to spin the story.  I just don't believe a word they say, when I see numbers like this.  

 

Some other angles...MLB says a 12 team playoff is a non-starter, they will ONLY consider 14.  Why?  It'll make more money because there's more games and more TV.  But also, like the NFL, it'll reward bad teams.  The AFC had 2 teams that had no business being called "playoff teams" and it showed.  The NFC probably did have 6 legit teams throughout...but the 7th was a joke.  (It was Philly.)  Not only does this raise revenue during the playoffs, but it massively increases interest in the last several games, because so few teams were eliminated.  (HOW late was it before the Giants were eliminated?)

 

It'll be slightly worse in MLB in some ways, in that there's only 30, not 32, teams.  Less bad in that with the longer season, the bulk of the season will practically eliminate teams long before they're mathematically eliminated.  I *really* dislike it, tho, because it will massively dilute the regular season.  Baseball is far more random than football or basketball, especially in a 3 game series (which is what's proposed).  

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-proposes-expanded-playoff-format-during-cba-negotiations-per-report/#:~:text=During recent collective bargaining sessions,from each league make postseason.

 

Note, too, that 83-79 and 82-80 would've made it last year.  GAGGG!!!!!!!  

 

[Pariah]

I think the Colorado Rockies number may be a little misleading, since they spent $50 million last year paying Nolan Arenado to play in St. Louis.

[Pariah]

How Rob Manfred's ineffective reign as MLB commissioner led to baseball's 'disastrous outcome'

[slikmar]

I guess I would feel better about the players side if one of their negotiators wasn't Max Scherzer and his $40 million a year contract. How about instead you let the guys earning $5 mil a year or less do your negotiating. MLBPA has spent the last however many years driving up the superstar contracts to a point that teams have to pay them and don't want to spend those middle $5-$15 million contracts; I mean, you sign 3 of these guys now and that is half whatever cap you want to put out there. I am fully in agreement with a minimum amount, but I also think there should be some type of top end. I see both sides points on expanded playoffs. MLB has always been about earning your way in, where the other 3 sports feel like mediocre teams can get in. I remember when the Lakers cruised through the regular season because it was all about the playoffs. It would be interesting if, instead of a team payroll cap, instead they had an individual player cap, though that would never  happen and then the Yankees, Dodgers and Mets would truly be ridiculous. I would like to see MLB put in a "Larry Bird" rule, where one player on your team doesn't count toward your cap (think MIke Trout of the Angels) - if traded, then would count, but is a way to have that home grown superstar stay with a team.