2021 College Football Thread

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

7 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Logan, at least...is your TV still intact?

 

Here's the funny thing about that. I don't get the SEC network so we couldn't watch the game. I checked on my phone to see what the final score was. (We were ahead at half, but that's all I knew.) So my phone says it's OT and the score is 23-22 with 0:00 to play. So I really didn't know what was happening. Then, as I'm watching and explaining the score to my mom in the next room it updates to 23-24 FINAL/OT. 

 

It was surreal. 

[Pariah]

And now CBS sports is reporting that Florida has fired Dan Mullen.

 

Itwill be interesting to see who eventually gets that job. Hey, Urban Meyer may be available in a couple of weeks....

[Starlord]

Hey, Tim Tebow is also available.  I mean, he gets offered every other job....

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

[unclevlad]

Losing to Missouri is the death knell:

 

I am only surprised...and that, not *that* much...that he was fired now.  A loss would end the season, and for sure, no one would blink at that point.  But technically, if they can win that, they'll be bowl-eligible...and there's 41 freakin' bowl games this year.  It might be close.  Athlon Sports reports there's 72 teams that are bowl-eligible, and 20 more that are one win away.  It's noted there's 4 games matching up 2 teams in that position...Florida-FSU being one of em.    But 6-6 is likely to get you into the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, or somesuch other mid-week, mid-afternoon, made-for-ESPN monstrosity.

 

Side point:  if they do?  Take their opponents and give however many points the bookies want.  To me, it's HIGHLY likely the Florida players will be singularly disinterested and the game has a high chance of being a debacle, particularly if the other team is one where even a minor bowl is something to be happy about.

[Pariah]

Quote of the week from CBS' Bottom 25:

 

Quote

Hey, Georgia Southern did as well against BYU as most of the Pac-12 has this season, losing 34-17.

 

 

All I can say is...

 

[unclevlad]

4 hours ago, Pariah said:

Quote of the week from CBS' Bottom 25:

 

 

Nope, it's this one:

 

Quote

The Bottom 25 Playoff won't officially start until after the regular season ends, but it unofficially starts on Saturday when the [NMSU[ Aggies take on No. 1 UMass in The Bottom 25 Game of the Century of the Week! 

 

Yep.  We're #3!!  We're #3!!!  And playing for #1!!!  But it'll be tough.  UMass is truly terrible consistently;  no more than 4 wins since 2012 when they left the Colonial, and a combined 20-87 over the last 9 seasons.  The Aggies would be right up there, but...they actually managed to get into a bowl game not that long ago.  An aberration, to be sure.

 

Oh...oh....CFP rankings...Ohio State just passed Bama.  So it's Georgia, OSU, Bama, Cincy.  Sheesh, Saban's a bum....#3????  Fire him!!!

 

[unclevlad]

So much for OSU being #2.

 

But I hate both schools.

 

That said:  those OSU receivers are REALLY good....

 

EDIT:  the game was in Ann Arbor in light snow.  Never got bad.  There's something special about a football game in light snow;  it's quite fitting, IMO.  And I flipped over...the Penn State-Mich State game is in East Lansing.  That game just started...in light snow.  

Fa la la la la......

[Iuz the Evil]

So Michigan is in if they win out (and they should, but who knows?). Georgia is looking like a lock for the SEC. Two left to argue about, really.

 

I’d like to see Cincinnati and someone other than Alabama or Clemson. Let’s get some new faces in there.

[Pariah]

I figure that if Alabama loses either today to Auburn or next week to Georgia, they're probably out. Ideally both, but even I'm not quite that optimistic.

 

Cincinnati spanked East Carolina yesterday. I think they play Houston for the American championship. Win that game, and I expect they're in.

 

So Georgia, Michigan if they win next week, and Cincinnati. That's three. Who's the fourth?

 

If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma tonight and Baylor next week, I guess I could see an argument there. The ACC is right out; neither Wake Forest nor Pitt can be taken seriously for that slot. If Utah wins next week's PAC-12 championship impressively against Oregon (assuming the Ducks don't lose and send Wazzou to the championship), maybe? Or would a one loss Notre Dame team (whose only loss came to the aforementioned Cincinnati) get the nod?

 

Ask me again next week.

[Pariah]

Michigan State Penn State is a pretty good game so far, but it's almost impossible to see Penn State in their all-white uniforms against the snow on the field.

[Iuz the Evil]

18 minutes ago, Pariah said:

I figure that if Alabama loses either today to Auburn or next week to Georgia, they're probably out. Ideally both, but even I'm not quite that optimistic.

 

Cincinnati spanked East Carolina yesterday. I think they play Houston for the American championship. Win that game, and I expect they're in.

 

So Georgia, Michigan if they win next week, and Cincinnati. That's three. Who's the fourth?

 

If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma tonight and Baylor next week, I guess I could see an argument there. The ACC is right out; neither Wake Forest nor Pitt can be taken seriously for that slot. If Utah wins next week's PAC-12 championship impressively against Oregon (assuming the Ducks don't lose and send Wazzou to the championship), maybe? Or would a one loss Notre Dame team (whose only loss came to the aforementioned Cincinnati) get the nod?

 

Ask me again next week.

Probably Notre Dame, I would guess? It’s an interesting scenario - a college football playoff with none of the usual suspects. Michigan, Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Georgia? Cool, I would watch that

[unclevlad]

Georgia *thrashed* Georgia Tech, so yes...they're in, even losing to Bama.

 

Alabama is probably in *if* they beat Auburn but the Tigers are up 7-0 in a massive defensive game.  Bama's hurting themselves with 6 flags.  Only 64 plays *total*.  If Bama loses today...they might be Out right now, but then if they beat Georgia?  They might still get in.

 

OSU is probably out regardless.  They don't have another shot at a big win.

 

Michigan and Cincy are in, without question, if they win their conference championship games.  If they lose???  Probably Oklahoma State's got the best line.  If they can beat Oklahoma tonight, then Baylor in their title game, that's 2 big resume wins, and a 1-loss conference champion rather than a 2-loss non-champion.  

 

So I'd go with:

In:  Georgia

Win and in:  Bama, Michigan, Cincy.  In that order.  And only Bama, I think, has wiggle room.  MAYBE.  Cincy definitely doesn't;  their strength of schedule is too poor.

In the wings:  Okla State, ND, then Oklahoma (beat OK State then Baylor...same good wins late, but their overall track record is shakier)

 

I don't think Ohio State or Baylor have a real chance.  Oregon...no.  They get no boost from winning the Pac 12 conference title.  Scenarios that maybe see them move up...they can't move up *enough*.  Bama loses today then to Georgia...ok, they're out.  Michigan loses to the Big 10 West winner...ugh, that creates a mess, to be sure.  Cincy loses.  Given all of this, then the Big 12 conference champ is in, and Notre Dame would be in.  (They're a 20 point favorite against Stanford, so let's pencil the win for this.)

 

The 4th team there would be................................................

I have NO clue.  Maybe Oregon.  They'd be a 2-loss conference champ, with a solid win.

 

 

[Pariah]

Point of order: Oklahoma State is already in the Big 12 championship game, not Baylor. If Oklahoma wins tonight, they play OSU again next week. Two consecutive wins against Oklahoma State may or may not be enough to get Oklahoma in. Who knows?

[unclevlad]

Oh, you're right.  My bad.  So OSU can get 2 good, separate wins...beat Oklahoma, then it's OSU vs. Baylor.  

 

Oregon-Oregon State.  Mess.

 

#1:  How to Misuse analytics.  Oregon built a 31-9 lead.  OSU scores.  22 -> 16.  They go for 2.  WRONG. WRONG.  WRONG.  You kick to get it to 15.  At 15, you kick AGAIN to make it 8...and one score.  Yes, *at some point* you have to go for 2...but tactically it's better to WAIT.  Maybe it's not a misuse of analytics but a failure to examine the decision tree fully...only the successful line.  THAT is something I see a LOT.

 

#2:  I believe targeting is a necessary rule.  The enforcement is AWFUL.  Game's almost over;  OSU's moved it deep but they're down 38-21 (yes, they went for 2, twice, and missed each time) and try to hit the WR on a slant at the goal line.  Pass sails.  Defensive back comes in and hammers the receiver high.  Receiver darn sure looked defenseless to me at the time.  The DB looked to launch, hit forcefully, lead with his head, and hit high!!!! 

No targeting called.

 

#3:  I don't believe it's coincidental that the next play saw a scuffle.  The refs partially bailed by calling offsetting unsportsmanlike fouls on both benches, while ejecting one player which did deserve it...he came in completely separately and jumped on the back of another player while striking him.  But they still bailed.

 

My take was the refs didn't want to eject.  The outcome wasn't in doubt...and ejections involve suspensions.  Next game for Oregon would be the Pac 12 title game;  for OSU, a bowl game.  Tough noogies.  

 

Oh my lordy.  Bama has to pull a rabbit out.  Ball on their own 3...1:35 left.  Down 7.  Convert 3rd and 10 at their own 3.  Convert 4th and 7 at the Auburn 42.  3rd and 10 at the Auburn 28, inside 30 seconds...they score the TD and tie it with the kick.  It's in OT now.

 

 

[Starlord]

Tough environment for the Buckeyes in Michigan today.  Props to UM to finally winning.  Honestly, I still think Ohio State was the only team that had a chance to beat Georgia, but oh well.  Hey, Cincinnati gave the Bulldogs a tough game last year.  Obviously will be rooting for the Bearcats all the way.

[unclevlad]

Quick update:  pretty straightforward TDs in the first OT.  Bama gets sack, sack to force a near-50 yard FG by a kid kicker...Auburn's first string kicker's hurt, apparently.  He hits.  Auburn forces a 38 yarder...IT'S good.

 

So we go to nothing but 2 point conversion plays from the 3 yard line until one team succeeds and the other fails.

 

Hey, Mr. P, how's your pulse rate?  Or are you not watching?

 

I'm rooting for there to be a toilet paper storm at Toomer's Corner.  Maximal chaos!!!

EDIT:
<sigh>

It goes to PKs and Bama wins 2-1.

Oh, sorry, it was 2 point conversions.

[Pariah]

Dammit, Auburn, you had one job.

[Iuz the Evil]

Boring. Alabama pulls it out. 

[Pariah]

At this point, I guess I just have to root for Georgia to win by, oh, 25 or 30 next week. Which, given Georgia's defense, is certainly within the realm of possibility.

 

Two other games of personal interest for me this evening: West Virginia at Kansas and BYU at USC. I will be rooting for the Mountaineers and Cougars, respectively.

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, Pariah said:

At this point, I guess I just have to root for Georgia to win by, oh, 25 or 30 next week. Which, given Georgia's defense, is certainly within the realm of possibility.

 

Two other games of personal interest for me this evening: West Virginia at Kansas and BYU at USC. I will be rooting for the Mountaineers and Cougars, respectively.

 

I was thinking that too, but.......I just realized something.

 

If Georgia beats Bama, regardless of margin, then Georgia is the #1 seed.  No question.

 

Assume Michigan wins over Iowa (!).  Not a guarantee but let's go with it.  And Cincy beats Houston;  they'll be a decent favorite, I'd think.  They have to be 2 and 3, right?

 

So if the committee wants Bama in there, it'd have to be as the 4 seed......to play Georgia again.  Would they want that?  When there are other potential, viable options?  I'm not necessarily against a rematch, but not when the first matchup was the game before, and the conference title game.  

How can a game where Kansas football is playing be interesting?

Speaking of Not Interesting...whoa!!!!!  NMSU 44, UMass 27.  Darn, we can't improve our ranking!!!
EDIT:  The coach, Doug Martin, at least gets to go out with a win.  His contract expires at the end of the New Mexico fiscal year (end of June) and there were no talks about an extension, so it was expected.  25-74 in 9 years.  The AD...who didn't hire him...pointed out, tho, that the Aggies have had 5 winning seasons in the last *50* years.  El Paso local news also dropped his salary...as a state employee, it's public information...$437K.  That in itself shows one of the problems:  that's *poor* for an FBS head coach.  

https://www.boydsbets.com/highest-paid-college-football-coaches/

Shows 120 of the 127....and Martin was 3rd lowest.  That was 2019 but it's not likely things changed that much since.  The football budget will improve;  we'll get a slice of C-USA's TV and bowl payouts.  That should help some but for comparison, in that list Bob Davie was at UNM and making double.  About 80 of the coaches on the list made over $1M.  So if you get lucky and grab a rising star...even if he wins, you probably can't keep him.

[Iuz the Evil]

Good for Oklahoma State, that takes them up over 16% wins all time against the Sooners in 116 meetings. Breaks a losing streak against Oklahoma since 2014. And they will appear in the Big XII Conference Title game at the very least.

 

Huge win for their program. Bless their hearts, I hope they savor this victory and the memories.

 

 So I’m guessing Cotton Bowl for OU? 10-2 and puts eyes on the screen. Be interesting to see how it all shakes out, I hope very much that it is four atypical teams as I mentioned before. It’s better for the sport to mix it up occasionally.
 

 

[Pariah]

4 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Assume Michigan wins over Iowa (!).  Not a guarantee but let's go with it.  And Cincy beats Houston;  they'll be a decent favorite, I'd think.  They have to be 2 and 3, right?

 

So if the committee wants Bama in there, it'd have to be as the 4 seed......to play Georgia again.  Would they want that?  When there are other potential, viable options?  I'm not necessarily against a rematch, but not when the first matchup was the game before, and the conference title game.  

 

Ah, but the solution to that conundrum is simplicity itself. Alabama becomes the #3 seed and faces Michigan in the first round, while Cincinnati drops to #4 and plays Georgia. Because seriously, can you really see this committee seeding a G5 team ahead of a playoff team from the $EC--even one with two losses?

 

As the mighty Thor would say, "Mayhap when icicles adorn Surtur's fiery realm!" 

[unclevlad]

I don't see it, but hey, the committee could do that.

 

But...with this win, where's Michigan?  Bama probably *should* have lost, and they darn sure didn't gain votes despite the win.  Cincy won't pass them, but Michigan beat OSU fairly soundly, particularly on offense.  41 carries for a tick under 300 yards is smashmouth at its finest.  And the defense contained the Buckeyes...we can't count the Michigan State game entirely, as MSU's pass defense is non-existent.  But the Buckeyes still did well;  MSU let them elevate that to bonkers.

 

So I think it's plausible that Michigan vaults to *2nd*...because did looked *great* and Bama didn't.  I suspect it'll be Georgia, Bama, Michigan, Cincy tho.

 

But if Cincy wins and Bama loses?  How can you drop Cincy that low?  I drop Bama.  #5 is likely Notre Dame;  #6 is likely Oklahoma State, and #7 is likely Baylor.  (Ohio State might be in there as well, somewhere, but they can't advance.)  If Oklahoma State wins, they have back-to-back wins against HIGH ranked opponents, and they're a 1-loss conference champ.  Notre Dame is Notre Dame.  *I* think they're grossly overvalued but that's me.

 

Bama's best wins have lost a LOT of luster...Florida was #11, but wilted like lettuce under a heat lamp.  LSU win wasn't terribly impressive.  Today's was lackluster.  Had Oklahoma beaten OSU then Baylor...well, ok, much the same argument might've been made.  But OSU's been more solid in the second half of the season.

 

Oh...had a side thought.  Iowa had to be overjoyed with the Wisconsin loss.  I believe that guarantees them Pasadena, win or lose.  I can't see them vaulting into the playoffs with a win...ergo, Pasadena most likely.  OR the playoffs.  Nice option.  If Michigan wins?  They're in the playoffs so can't go to Pasadena, and Iowa is granted the Rose Bowl by being in the title game, I believe.  Heck of a consolation prize.

 

But hey, we're not committee members.  We're AM talk show callers.

 

 

[Pariah]

Fun fact: BYU did not lose a Football, Men’s Basketball, Women’s Basketball, Women’s Soccer, or Women’s Volleyball game/match in the month of November.