2021-22 Basketball Thread

[Cygnia]

It's not gonna be the Lakers or the Heat.  Life is Good.

[Pariah]

So, the Utah Jazz announced today that Quinn Snyder is stepping down as head coach. The conventional wisdom is that he will sit out for a year, possibly in anticipation of Gregg Popovich retiring after next year and taking over for him in San Antonio.

 

The Jazz are also rumored to be seeking a trade for Rudy Gobert, who apparently can't coexist with Donovan Mitchell any longer.

 

In light of these two pieces of news, the question that comes inescapably to my mind is this: Who should the Jazz be targeting with their lottery pick in the 2023 draft?

[Michael Hopcroft]

Warriors-Celtics has the makings of a classic in the first two games are any indication.. People forget that the Warriorsa are an Original Eight team, and that their rivalry with th4 Celticfs hatres back from the days of Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain.  The two great centers -- Russell the ultimate defensive center and Wilt the offensive juggernaut -- played many epic duels. It's amazing to thing there was not enough interest in the NBA at the time to justify any of the TV outlets bothering to send cameras to a certain gym in Hershey, Penssylfania on that one specific date that Wilt exploded for a hundred points.

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

Warriors-Celtics has the makings of a classic in the first two games are any indication.. People forget that the Warriorsa are an Original Eight team, and that their rivalry with th4 Celticfs hatres back from the days of Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain.  The two great centers -- Russell the ultimate defensive center and Wilt the offensive juggernaut -- played many epic duels. It's amazing to thing there was not enough interest in the NBA at the time to justify any of the TV outlets bothering to send cameras to a certain gym in Hershey, Penssylfania on that one specific date that Wilt exploded for a hundred points.

 

The state of the NBA at that time can be inferred from the fact that the game was in Hershey...not Philly.  Once you realize...Hershey's about 80 miles from Philly.  It was worse.  From Wikipedia:
 

Quote

There was little advance excitement about the pending Warriors-Knicks game that Friday. Only five games remained in the regular season, with the Warriors (46–29) in second place—eleven games behind the Boston Celtics—and the Knicks in last place.[21] Chamberlain had spent the night before the game in New York City,[note 2] partying all night with a female companion before dropping her off at her home at 6 am[6][22] With no sleep and suffering from a hangover, he boarded the train to Philadelphia at 8 am, met several friends at the Philadelphia train station, and had a long lunch with them, thus almost missing the team bus to Hershey.[22] The other players were similarly bored. Warriors player York Larese said: "The biggest thrill in my life was to see that. There was nothing exciting about the Knicks playing the Warriors in Hershey. Chocolate was more exciting."[23] The game was played at Hershey Sports Arena, an old drafty gym originally built for ice hockey. The league occasionally played games in remote towns to attract new fans. This was the Warriors' third "home" game of the season in Hershey, which was 85 miles (137 km) from Philadelphia.[24][25] The Warriors' Tom Meschery called the arena "god-forsaken place ... The town of Hershey was built around a huge chocolate factory; everything there became permeated with the smell of chocolate. It was practically impossible to stay indoors; people felt sick. I was just dreaming to leave the place as fast as I could."[26]

On a cold, rainy Friday night, only 4,124 spectators paid to see the game, primarily to see players from the Philadelphia Eagles play an exhibition basketball game against their colleagues from the Baltimore Colts before the NBA game started.[22] The arena's capacity was over 8,000, and Warriors owner Eddie Gottlieb was infamous for exaggerating attendance numbers.[21] Warriors home attendance had dropped from 7,000 in Chamberlain's rookie season to less than 5,000 in this, his third, season.[27] College basketball had started offering doubleheaders during the Great Depression to provide customers value for their money. Fans had grown accustomed to watching two games, so doubleheaders in the NBA became common.[28]

 

It also says something about pro sports generally...players from the Eagles and Colts getting together to put on an exhibition like that, today?  For charity, possibly.  Otherwise...no way.

[Michael Hopcroft]

Things have obviously changed for the better. We're not going to see another hundred-point game: early in his career, Wilt had this almost-impossible endurance and played more than 42 minutes a game. He was also supremely gifted at playing the physical center position without committing many fouls. Either is unheard of today in the age of time management for the best players -- at the pace of today's game Wilt would have run himself into the ground by mid-season.

 

Later in his career he had adapted his game, making himself into an elite defender. As he aged and put on muscle mass, that made him still valuable even as his offensive skills waned. Today players, especially centers and power forwards, don't get on the court unless they show effort on the defensive side of the court. It is very hard to play offense against NBA defenders at an NBA pace. That is why so many teams falter against even "inferior" opposition.

[unclevlad]

Many of the highest-scoring games have also been at the tail end of the season.  In '78, David Thompson and George Gervin were fighting for the scoring title.  Last game of the regular season...Thompson scored 73 to take the lead.  Gervin came back with 63, to edge Thompson out.  IIRC, David Robinson scored 71 in the Spurs' last game in '94, to take the scoring title from Shaq.

 

I don't expect another 100 point game, ever.  Closest is Kobe's 81.  That was 2006, when the Lakers were still basically down, and Kobe turned in an insane game because...he had to.  Turn that into OT?  Who knows.  Klay Thompson had 37 in a quarter...maybe, just maybe, that could be extended to a full game.  Odds are it wouldn't be needed, but who knows.

 

The one I never expect to see broken is Wilt's scoring average.  In that season, he averaged over 50 a game, scoring over 4000 points.  Best anyone else has done:  Jordan, 37 ppg.  When he was the team offense;  the 2nd leading scorer on that team was Charles Oakley, at < 15 ppg, and only John Paxson averaged over 10 among the rest of the team.  And still...almost 1000 fewer points, basically 13 a game fewer.  BUT:  also remember that Wilt made it to the NBA Finals only once in those extreme-scoring years.  He won in 67 with the 76ers...averaging 24 a game.

 

Minutes limitations is part of that, too.  Another is travel.  Taking the '63 season...the middle of Wilt's scoring heyday.  Boston, Cincy, Philly, NY in the east;  San Fran, Lakers, Detroit, St. Louis, and Baltimore in the West.  San Fran and the Lakers obviously had to travel a ton, the rest wouldn't have been too bad.  Another aspect is the attention today.  Everyone knows when someone's scoring like that.  Flip side:  the rest of your team knows when you're taking that much attention away from them.  And that means, taking money out of their next contract nowadays.

 

There are almost no low-post centers any more.  There are those who can play in the post;  Embiid is scary.  But most don't live there as Chamberlain and Russell did.  Which points to another record that'll never be broken:  single-season rebounds per game.  According to Basketball Reference, Chamberlain and Russell account for the top *18*.  Chamberlain averaged 27 RPG in 60-61.  Since 1990, the highest would be Rodman's 18.7.  Since 2000, Drummond has the highest at 16.  And this drop is only going to continue, most likely;  when 3's are shot so regularly, long rebounds are more common, and those get scattered.

 

I think good teams lose to bad teams more often because:

a)  the talent is much more spread out, so a lot of teams with poor records aren't *that* much worse than middling-decent teams.

b)  travel

c)  distractions!!!  

d)  scheduling, at times...4 games in 5 days.  

e)  game style.  Lots of 3's, lots and lots and LOTS of undisciplined play

f)  team chemistry is impossible to maintain

 

EDIT:  one more tidbit.  Devin Booker scored 70 in 2017.  I vaguely remember;  that was a game that brought notable national attention to him.  Other than that, no one's topped 62 since Kobe:  Carmelo and Steph.  61, 5 times:  Lebron once, Lillard and Harden twice each.  60, 9 times.  (Plus Kobe's incredible 60 in his last game.)

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

I think Wilt's most amazing, unbreakable stat is from the year he averaged over 48 minutes a game. We'll never see anything like that again. (1961-62, 48.5 MPG, 50.4 PPG)

[Michael Hopcroft]

7 hours ago, Logan.1179 said:

I think Wilt's most amazing, unbreakable stat is from the year he averaged over 48 minutes a game. We'll never see anything like that again. (1961-62, 48.5 MPG, 50.4 PPG)

Today, we recognize putting any player on the court that long is madness, especially at the pace of the modern NBA. Things move fast out there.

[unclevlad]

And Wilt settled into the post, on both offense and defense.  He wasn't running around, chasing out to the 3 point line, switching, etc.  

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

I see Steph got hurt in a loss last night. This is looking like the Celtics' year. 

[unclevlad]

The bigger issue for GS is that Draymond's focused only on trying to get into the Celtics' heads...and not playing.  Steph's expected to play, but we will have to see whether he's restricted in any way.

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

Lebron wants to own an NBA team. 

 

"I want the team in Vegas."

[unclevlad]

I expect the NBA will expand.  An NBA franchise doesn't need as large a base of support as MLB (biggest) or the NFL (franchise costs are SO much higher).  The stigma against Vegas is probably mostly dissipated.  The town supports the Golden Knights;  6th in attendance, at 104%.  (How?  I have no clue.  But still, 18,000+ per game.)  And Seattle might well have the inside track for the other, because the league still has a guilty conscience about the Sonics bailing, I think.

 

If they do 2 far-west teams, they'll have to ship 1 team to the Eastern Conference.  And realign.  2 divisions of 8, per conference, or 4 divisions of 4?  

 

Western expansion options are somewhat limited, and it may well be the case that Vegas is simply the best choice.  NorCal has the Warriors, and is pretty heavily saturated (2 baseball, 1 hockey).  SoCal, forget it.  Even San Diego would be pushing it, I think.  Seattle's penciled in already.  Portland's got one.  SLC has one.  Denver has one, and is saturated.  Phoenix is out.  Texas is out, with teams in Dallas and San Antonio.  By population, you're dropping down to El Paso (forget it), Vegas, ABQ, Kansas City.  (Colorado Springs is probably too close to Denver.)

[Pariah]

Okay, let's consider the possibilities.

 

Let's add expansion franchises in Las Vegas and Seattle, and shift Minnesota to the Eastern conference. That gives us two conferences of 16 teams. Let's break those down, like the NHL does, into two divisions of eight. So we'd have something like this, starting in the west:

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Pacific Division:

Seattle

Portland

Sacramento

Golden State

Los Angeles

The other Los Angeles

Las Vegas

Phoenix

 

Midwest Division:

Utah

Denver

Oklahoma City

Dallas

Houston

San Antonio

New Orleans

Memphis

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Great Lakes Division:

Minnesota

Milwaukee

Chicago

Indiana

Detroit

Cleveland

Toronto

Atlanta

 

Atlantic Division:

Boston

New York

Brooklyn

Philadelphia

Washington

Charlotte

Orlando

Miami

 

The only obvious outlier here is Atlanta, but the Braves played in the NL West for decades. They'll be fine. The Midwest Division is pretty spread out, but it covers a lot of territory where not a lot of people live. And it's not as bad as the Central Division of the NHL, which serves many of the same markets.

 

I might also come up with some brilliant idea involving divisions of four rather than eight, but that will take some time.

[unclevlad]

If they keep the 10-team playoff structure, which IMO is absurdly too many, but the league seems to love it...

 

2 divisions of 8 suggests that top 3 in each division make it;  next 4 make the play-in.  OR, top 2 make it.  Next 2 best records make it.  Next 4 into the play-in.  Depends on how much you emphasize division vs. conference.  That might be scheduling.

 

4 divisions of 4, you probably have to auto-qualify ONLY the division winner.  Which I like somewhat less.  With divisions of 4, there will be *bad* divisions.  I was looking at Orlando earlier.  They won their division a few years back, at 42-40.  7th seed, lost in the first round.  

It would be slightly more geographically balanced to put Boston in your Lakes division.  They're not that far from Toronto.  Putting Atlanta isolated them from 3 other southeastern teams, so it feels a radical shift.  That said, breaking up those classic Eastern rivalries would be a big issue too.  Your division breakdown shows the issue tho, very nicely.  Overlay those onto a map, and look how *little* room there really is in the Western Conference for another team.

Overall, except possibly swapping Boston and Atlanta, those divisions look to be very good.  Until of course, the next franchise move.  

[unclevlad]

To paraphrase Locutus, in this playoff season...prediction is futile.

[BNakagawa]

Curry gets hurt, next game he erupts for 43 points and 10 boards. Game after that, can't hit a single 3 pointer, breaking the longest streak of playoff games with a made 3 in NBA history. No telling what happens in game 6.

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

That shot at the end of Q3 was incredible. I think it broke the Celtics who were doing great. 

[unclevlad]

IIRC it's the 2nd one for Poole in this playoff run.  

 

Free throw shooting killed the Celtics as much as anything.  

 

And they're in big trouble;  Steph's way too likely to revert to his mean...which means an 8 for 13 kind of night is looming.  

 

A major X factor...in the last 2 games, Andrew Wiggins has grabbed 29 rebounds, 25 defensive.  That's really clamped down on Boston getting 2nd shot opportunities, where you'd expect their size to dominate.

 

 

[Michael Hopcroft]

If Curry puts his best game out tonight and ends the series dramatically, this series could be his masterpiece. Why? Because his resilience would put him in truly elite company of legends who built their legends on the biggest, toughest stage. He has faced adversity this series, yet still found ways to help the W's win games.

[unclevlad]

If Curry has another big game on the road, he's MVP, since he dominated game 4

 

This also feels like a game setting up for 80 from the Dubs' back court (Steph, Klay, and Poole).

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

I read that really fast and thought "Who is Steph Claypool?"

 

[Pariah]

Bass player for Primus, right?

[unclevlad]

OK, so I missed.  They only got 61....but out of 103, that's still solid.  And Green and Wiggins got 30.

 

Tatum is going to get roundly criticized.  6-18, 5 turnovers.  But the huge issue was the 3 bench players who got time when it mattered, White, Pritchard, and Williams.  Just shy of 40 minutes total...2-10 (0-5 from 3), 3 rebounds.  -26, -20, and -18.  (The starters were actually +7 overall.)  By contrast, Looney didn't score but grabbed 7 boards, Payton had 3 boards, 2 assists, and 3 steals and played physical defense, and Poole had a very nice first quarter (helping the tone of ball sharing) and 15 points overall.

 

Yep.  Steph took MVP.

[BNakagawa]

And they did this without James Wiseman.