薔薇語

Indeed. 

Speaking of young voter apathy, though, it should be noted that young(ish) voters were the principle drivers for third party candidates. Overall the third parties picked up about 5%. But for voters under 40, it was almost double that (8-9%). 
 
Soar. 

Even the narrative of voters not showing up is incorrect. It is true that there was lower overall voter turnout this year than in the previous two cycles, but that turnout was equally depressed on both sides. That depression was also relatively minor. The "Democratic base" showed up at the polls but couldn't bring themselves to 100% commit to what was on the plate. 

Why do we know this to be the case? Because, despite there being an overall decline in voter turnout, the Republican voter share didn't increase. Had it been a Democratic Depression alone, we would have seen the Republican share rise in equal proportions. It didn't. Republicans faced off against the exact same numbers of non-Republicans. But their opposition was not united. 
 
Soar. 

There has been a fair bit of talk about the Demographic breakdowns this election cycle. To figure out what was actually happening, I went through the CNN and Wikipedia demographics breakdown for the most recent four elections. 
 
Voter Demo Over 4 Elections
 
I published it as a downloadable PDF file. 
 
Soar. 
 
Now that I have had time to think and ponder the data, here are my thoughts (pulled from my FB):

 
Now that I have made the Demographics breakdown, It is far easier for me to assess some of the ideas floating around in regards to President Elect Trump's win.
 
Re: White people
 
This cycle, as opposed to 2004 (77%) and 2008 (72%) were a smaller block at just 70% of the total vote. The Republican pull on white people in general was the same this year as 2012 and 2004 (58%). The Democratic pull on White People, though, was smaller at just 37% this year to 39% last time and 43% in 08 and 41% in 04. This year, more than any other year by a long shot saw a massive increase in 3rd party voting by whites.
 
Re: White men
 
Other than 2008, white men have been very consistently voting for Rep at a uniform 62-63%. In 2008 there was a big dip of 8%. Pres. Obama drew in a LOT (8%!) of white male voters then. Secretary Clinton drew in the absolute fewest white men (31%). But it wasn't because they went for Trump; the broke for third party.
 
Re: White Women
 
White women have stayed consistent all four cycles. 53-55% for Republicans and 44-46% for dems. This year was a low year and saw a modest rise in Third Party candidates.
 
Re: Urban vs Rural.
 
Rural voters have drop quite a bit as a voting block. 25% in 04 to 17% this year. This time they had a very similar Republican break as in 2012. It might be too simplistic to say it has become more Republican but perhaps just less Democratic. This year there was 62% for Trump vs 60% last time and that is up a lot from 53% in 2008. But on whole this block has seen a decline in Dem support and slight and comparable increase in third party.
 
Urban and Suburban voters saw very little change from 08 to today. Those populations became FAR less Republican compared to their 04 counterparts and grew almost equally FAR more democratic. But not perfectly! They saw a giant leap in third party support this time (6 and 5% respectively).
 
Re: No Black vote / No Latino vote
 
Nope. Just nope. The black vote was the same portion of the electorate as it has always been (11-13%). They, however INCREASED in voting for a Republican this year (8% compared to 4% in 08). And also increased in third party support a bit. They also went back to their 04 support of Democrats at 88% compared to the 95% of 04.
 
Latinos also had similar voting trends for the last three cycles. What is unique about 04 compared to the last three is that President Bush got a TON of the Latino vote (44% compared to P.E. Trump's 29%).
 
So, what does all this mean?
 
Ultimately there were some natural quirks here and there with subtle changes but no group really changed their party support TO President Elect Trump. Rather the opposite: people rejected Secretary Clinton on most every demographic she lost compared to President Obama and Secretary Kerry.
 
Secretary Clinton LOST this election - President Elect Trump did NOT win it.

Jeez. Again, people really need to take a chill pill. One election does not equate to the end of the freaking world! 
 
And since we are all about issues of voter suppression through intimidation: imagine what it is like to be a Republican leaning person in Oregon now. Everyone needs to come together and condemn this mayhem. Not because of some idiotic notion that Secretary Clinton, President Elect Trump, President Obama, nor most media elites are responsible for its creation, but because we are ALL responsible for the smooth transition of power.
 
Soar.  

At this point BOTH parties should be looking at each other and saying "My God, what have we done?"
 
Did the media cause the riots? No.  Did the parties cause the riots? No. Did Trump becoming president cause the riots? No.  Were they all catalysts? Quite probably.
 
American culture is steeped in standing up to bullies.  If you run a campaign where you're perceived as one the entire time based on the things you say and the things you don't say you can't expect people to stand down because it 'worked'.  You don't just get to make people literally terrified of your victory and expect their fears to magically evaporate with one vaguely political sounding speech. You don't get time to show that it was all 'locker room talk' and that the campaign you ran won't reflect your presidency.
 
Actions have consequences.  The way this campaign was run these riots were inevitable no matter who won - if the results were switched there's no way Trump wouldn't be calling for recounts in Florida and Pennsylvania at the very least, and no way his voter base wouldn't be on the streets demanding it (especially if he won the popular vote - both he and they would be able to point at that and scream 'see, see... the system IS rigged.')
 
 
There's actually quite a few Republicans on the NeverTrump side. A lot of us are more angry with the party than anything else - this caricature of a Republican candidate never should have won the primary.  I wasn't kidding earlier when I said that many Republicans held their noses as they voted for their parties candidate... it describes three quarters of my family. None of them actually support Trump and his rhetoric but all of us are ready to give him the benefit of the doubt (as a president NOT as a person. He earns nothing but contempt for the things he's said.)
 
You are a hundred percent correct - this mayhem must be stopped before more people get hurt.  The real question will be - based on everything else that led to it - how?  Condemning it will not work, and actions against it will make it worse.
 
tl:dr:  I wish people would chill out, but I understand why they feel like they can't.
 

Portland is officially rioting.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/www.oregonlive.com/articles/19646563/anti-trump_protests_held_for_f.amp&ved=0ahUKEwiP88_IhKDQAhVCi1QKHQDzBwUQFghpMBs&usg=AFQjCNF8vuNycxF2yYDEJ8s3Rv_cUDAoZg&sig2=NJrHLP8X5EXvYioRH4jjhw

Let me stop you here. You are now moving the goal posts. You said self proclaimed white nationalists. Actually, let me exactly quote you: "Trump utilized flat out white nationalists. Not as some side thing. These aren't people anyone needs to call racists, they call themselves it. Every day, Publicly."
 
I will note that saying "I am alt-right" may strike you as "I am a white nationalist" but this is where we are running into problems. Far too many people on the left seem to think even saying "I am conservative" is tantamount to saying "I am racist". You have gone from claiming that his staff publicly call themselves "white nationalists" to saying they used some code-word that you perceive to mean the same thing.
 
It is at this point that I should end this as I think we have reach a divide. It would seem you have vastly overstated your case and fallen into the exact broad-brush ad-homs that I was criticizing upthread.
 
Soar.
 
Edit- There was more to this post but I think it was more distracting than necessary. I have deleted it. 

This is a cross posting from my Facebook.
 
"People are already calling for the President Elect's impeachment. Jeez. Remember when the republican right ranted about this 8 years ago and how we mocked them for their idiocy? Let's not now embrace this BS. One of the few things I clearly remember and felt great about in 08 was that the next day even Glenn freaking Beck went on air and decried every last unpatriotic fucker that spewed out that filthy "not my president" garbage. Let's not mark this occasion with less grace than Glenn Beck - if we can't be classier than him, then we truly do deserve this.
 
I dislike the man. I don't hold out any hope for the country to become more free and prosperous in the next four years. But President Elect Donald J. Trump is MY president."
 
To quote Mahatma Gandhi, "Be the change you want to see."
 
Soar.

Secession.
 
Because that worked out so well the last time.
 
Personally, I'd expect to see a revolt inside California (northern vs. southern) before the state pulls put of the Union.
 
On the other hand, if California is going to leave anyway, maybe the rest of the country can at least get something out of it. Maybe we can sell it back to Mexico, or even to Spain.
 
How much could we get for California, do you think?

This is a cross posting from my Facebook.
 
"People are already calling for the President Elect's impeachment. Jeez. Remember when the republican right ranted about this 8 years ago and how we mocked them for their idiocy? Let's not now embrace this BS. One of the few things I clearly remember and felt great about in 08 was that the next day even Glenn freaking Beck went on air and decried every last unpatriotic fucker that spewed out that filthy "not my president" garbage. Let's not mark this occasion with less grace than Glenn Beck - if we can't be classier than him, then we truly do deserve this.
 
I dislike the man. I don't hold out any hope for the country to become more free and prosperous in the next four years. But President Elect Donald J. Trump is MY president."
 
To quote Mahatma Gandhi, "Be the change you want to see."
 
Soar.

Why would you think anything else would happen? We have spent the entire cycle demonizing the opposition. We have convinced too many that President-Elect Trump is the next Hitler and all that it entails. If you actually believed Hitler had been reborn in orange, wouldn't you go to streets? Actually, I am perhaps more shocked that more vocal elites in media aren't in full on apocalyptic riot mode given ths extremist position some have taken.
 
Perhaps this can serve as a lesson to us all about open processes, honesty and hopefulness in message, and NOT demonizing all opposition.
 
Soar.

This is a cross posting from my Facebook.
 
"People are already calling for the President Elect's impeachment. Jeez. Remember when the republican right ranted about this 8 years ago and how we mocked them for their idiocy? Let's not now embrace this BS. One of the few things I clearly remember and felt great about in 08 was that the next day even Glenn freaking Beck went on air and decried every last unpatriotic fucker that spewed out that filthy "not my president" garbage. Let's not mark this occasion with less grace than Glenn Beck - if we can't be classier than him, then we truly do deserve this.
 
I dislike the man. I don't hold out any hope for the country to become more free and prosperous in the next four years. But President Elect Donald J. Trump is MY president."
 
To quote Mahatma Gandhi, "Be the change you want to see."
 
Soar.

Why would you think anything else would happen? We have spent the entire cycle demonizing the opposition. We have convinced too many that President-Elect Trump is the next Hitler and all that it entails. If you actually believed Hitler had been reborn in orange, wouldn't you go to streets? Actually, I am perhaps more shocked that more vocal elites in media aren't in full on apocalyptic riot mode given ths extremist position some have taken.
 
Perhaps this can serve as a lesson to us all about open processes, honesty and hopefulness in message, and NOT demonizing all opposition.
 
Soar.

This isn't true. At least, it wasn't true for me. The main reason I voted for Bush was that there was no reason to vote for John Kerry.  His entire platform (if that's even the right word) was "Elect me because I'm not George W. Bush". And it failed--much like Hillary Clinton's non-platform of "Elect me because I'm not Donald Trump" failed last night.  (Admittedly, Hillary makes the stronger case.)
 
Blaming fear and hatred for Kerry's loss in 2004 is a nice excuse a decade after the fact, but it's not true.  I didn't vote for Bush out of fear, or out of hatred of Middle Easterners. I voted for Bush because I didn't see Kerry as a viable option.

Maybe cheating and conniving and manipulating to get the one person who couldn't beat Donald Trump as the nominee wasn't such a great plan after all for the Democrats.

I found this: Publishing Industry is Overwhelmingly White and Female.
 
 
 
A quick scan doesn't seem to show any editor specific data though.

If I have the choice between two rotten apples, I am not choosing the slightly less rotten one. I'll pick an orange instead.

Let's say there is a tentative slot in the phase 3 or 4 slate for a Black Widow film. But then the deal for Spider-Man goes through with Sony and you need to bump something. And then Ant-Man does well enough financially that executives start having visions of $$$ from a sequel dancing in their heads and want to bump something else. I can see how Black Widow ends up drawing the short straw on this, disappointing though it may be.
 
SJ may also have other projects in the works that make it difficult to schedule her for another MCU film (in addition to the ones she's already scheduled for) any time soon. Like, there could be a three-month window where she's available in 2017, but Marvel won't be ready by then. And then maybe her next slot of availability doesn't line up with Marvel's development schedule until 2019 or 2020. This stuff isn't easy to make happen given all the people and resources that have to be marshalled.
 
Let's also consider that Marvel may have decided, however wrongly, that audiences don't have that much interest in an MCU spy movie given the generally lackluster response to Marvel's Most Wanted.
 
There are a lot of factors being considered to put any MCU film into production: practical, financial, logistical, strategic, corporate, and personal. Without knowing all the details behind the decisions, they can seem awfully arbitrary, but I am confident they aren't, and that it would probably make sense if we knew all the details.

And that is why the whole genre is unwatchable. Conan for dad! 
 
Soar. 

"Crush your political opponents. See them driven out of politics. Hear the lamenting of their delegates!"

And that is why the whole genre is unwatchable. Conan for dad! 
 
Soar. 

Spoilers - duh. 
 
I just got back from Taipei where they had Suicide Squad in theaters. Given the very mixed reviews I decided to go watch the movie. I did know a couple spoilers, including the Diablo one. I genuinely tried to like the film - and I normally rate films better than most; I even liked BvS. But at the end of the day I thought it was a bad film. The acting for the most part was good and I like some of the music and even some individual scenes were quite well shot but as a whole it was a confusing, ill-paced mess from start to finish. 

Too many chefs in the kitchen: 
There were far too many characters in this movie. The avengers worked so well because they didn't really need to explain the background and motivations of everyone in a single movie. Had the Suicide squad taken a bit to either set up the characters in other movies (not really possible) or cut the squad in half it would have been better. Examples of this were with Captain Boomerang and Katana. I thought both were good but utterly useless characters. The only plot driving point the Captain was in is when he got the other guy killed. That could have easily been accomplished by HQ. Katana had no reason at all to be there. I thought it would be because of her sword but even then it wasn't. The guy they killed off needed an intro. The moment he came on screen we all knew he would die quickly and it had no impact. It was a useless death. Why were there two badguys? One would have been sufficient and cut out several minutes of useless footage. 

Its a marathon, not a sprint:
The pacing in here is way off. There are essentially four bricks in this movie with their own time slots and pacing independent of everything: Suicide Squad Proper's formation - Establishment of Waller and Enchantress - The City Rescue - Post Bar fight. Each one has its own pacing, which is okay, but then radically splits and sprints through the next section. Scott at Nerdsync had a brilliant idea to solve this issue: remove the whole Waller and Enchantress section. Don't give Enchantress a background nor explain that she was part of the team (its not like anyone on the team knew her anyway). Rather have the reveal when Deadshot discovers the TopSecret file. This could have saved you lots of time, made the idiotic plot setup more bearable by not focusing on it, and pushed a lot of intense character development for the bar scene, thus making it actually valuable and not the almost pointless lull it is. It might have even freed up enough time to have some kind of establishing training montage for the crew and not a random "here's the crew in the desert and now here's the crew in a Post-Apoc city jump". 

Characters: 
Too many characters were too flat. The only ones that got any depth were Deadshot, HQ, and Diablo. Even Flag, who should have had a major character arch, was almost exactly the same from start to finish. All that changed is that he decided to not ruthlessly behead some folks at the end. Woohoo?! This I think is an issue mostly from the number of characters and pacing. They could have focused far more on development if they weren't so worried about their stupid plot device. And the actors showed the ability to give dynamic roll so it is most certainly an error on the director's side. 

Jered Leto - This Joker (in both senses) was used in much the same way some female characters are used in the medium: purely as character set up for someone else. He only existed to explain HQ and give her a full arc. He was fully disposable - much like the acting job Leto gave. I might actually like the campy TV version more and I hated that one. He keeps saying that there was more footage of him - well it would seem the director made at least one good choice in the edit of this movie. 

Waller - I hate this character. I was always a reluctant fan of her in the shows, though. She was trying to fulfill a vital roll as a counter-balance to the League or such. While cold, she was driven. This one just seems to be a power hungry bureaucrat who enjoys a bit of torture and murder. Had the scene where she cold bloodedly murder her staff not happened I might have stayed on the fence about her - but once that happened I wanted her to die. I hope she never come back up (which I know is not a reasonable wish). The Waller I thought I knew wasn't one to choose murdering innocent folks lightly. The acting for her was okay - I don't think it was the great performance others are claiming. And certainly isn't worthy more praise than Smith or Robbie or even Croc's. 

All in all, this was a waste of money to go see. I do not look forward to anything with Leto and I am really hoping he doesn't drag down BatFlec. Watch it when it comes to a streaming service near you or not at all. 
 
Soar. 

It's a good point, but I'm having a hard time deciding which is the lesser of evils here. I know which way your preference swings and I applaud you that clarity. To me there is no such clarity. The good news is that I still have a little while to consider it. If the vote were held today, I'd be sitting at home.

Somehow, I knew this movie was going to be a trainwreck. But for some reason, I still kinda want to see it. That Grace Randolph review was scathing, and keep in mind, she LIKED Batman v Superman....
 
Ouch.