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First Contact Could Be Tomorrow!


Nevenall

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Re: First Contact Could Be Tomorrow!

 

33 to 50 feet isn't big enough to cause any damage?

 

If it's an iron asteroid, it would be more than big enough, wouldn't it?

 

I suspect that they're talking about catastrophic damage to the Earth and its environments. I suspect that any object that size (smaller but certainly more massive than an F-4 fighter plane) would be pretty catastrophic if you were standing at the point of impact. A mile or so away? Not so much.

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Re: First Contact Could Be Tomorrow!

 

33 to 50 feet isn't big enough to cause any damage?

 

If it's an iron asteroid, it would be more than big enough, wouldn't it?

 

You can play around with: Impact Effects to see what happens.

 

Though it looks like the asteroid needs to be a bit bigger before causing problems other than right where it hit.

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Re: First Contact Could Be Tomorrow!

 

Here's what came of it:

 

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/cgi-bin/crater.cgi?dist=.1&distanceUnits=1&diam=50&diameterUnits=3&pdens=&pdens_select=8000&vel=20&velocityUnits=1&theta=45&wdepth=&wdepthUnits=1&tdens=2500

 

Your Inputs:

Distance from Impact: 0.10 km = 0.06 miles

Projectile Diameter: 15.24 m = 49.99 ft = 0.01 miles

Projectile Density: 8000 kg/m3

Impact Velocity: 20.00 km/s = 12.42 miles/s

Impact Angle: 45 degrees

Target Density: 2500 kg/m3

Target Type: Sedimentary Rock

 

Energy:

Energy before atmospheric entry: 2.97 x 1015 Joules = 708.39 KiloTons TNT

The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth is 84.4 years

 

Atmospheric Entry:

The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 16500 meters = 54200 ft

The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 6870 meters = 22500 ft

The residual velocity of the projectile fragments after the burst is 8.83 km/s = 5.48 miles/s

The energy of the airburst is 2.39 x 1015 Joules = 0.57 x 100 MegaTons.

 

Large fragments strike the surface and may create a crater strewn field. A more careful treatment of atmospheric entry is required to accurately estimate the size-frequency distribution of meteoroid fragments and predict the number and size of craters formed.

 

Major Global Changes:

The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.

The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis.

The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

 

Air Blast:

The air blast at this location would not be noticed. (The overpressure is less than 1 Pa)

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Re: First Contact Could Be Tomorrow!

 

Looks like it's 2010 AL30.

 

Interesting that that orbit it shows crosses Venus's orbit too. One leg of the Inner Solar System Shuttle Bus Route? That's a really poorly-determined orbit, though.

 

If it's an iron, that size of object is about the same as the impactor that made Meteor Crater in Arizona. You don't want to be right under it when it hits, but as such things go it's modest impact.

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