unclevlad

I'm not going to even consider the notion that Trump is the Anti-Christ. It gives him far too much credit.

ESPN bottom line says Mike McCarthy isn't getting an extension, so he'll be coaching on an expiring contract. So...what, conference championship game or bust, right? And definitely #1 on the Hot Seat Parade, albeit not necessarily for the regular season...

11 plays, 78 yards, 7+ minutes, game over. 31-10 Ravens. Championship-quality drive.

mmm...not looking good for Houston. I have a hard time thinking they'll get a lot better on offense, so down 7 now...even mid 2nd...they needed the lead, IMO. Ravens will score some more...maybe not a lot, but enough to keep it out of fluke-play territory.

I said dial...so...analog. See, that's why you don't want them new-fangled digital thingies. (Apparently a substantial portion of school-age kids can't even read an analog clock...<sigh>.)

The article's subscriber-only, but the headline and lead are enough. From Business Insider: Digital, perhaps not...but print media, yes. And the digital market is horrendously overpopulated, IMO.

A stuck 24-hour dial clock is right once a day.

Good news! Cowboys decide to stick with McCarthy. Now we know we won't have to listen to the hype for long, come next season's playoffs. Also wouldn't be surprised if they actually have some bad luck with injuries and such...and don't even make the playoffs. They have 9 Pro Bowlers this year. They'll have a division winner's schedule, which is a bit tougher. They get AFC North...physical games, if nothing else, plus the Lions and Niners.

Interesting point from NYT email I just got. The headline is, do political ads still matter? The gist: I definitely feel the "smaller universe" is a big point, particularly WRT Trump vs. not-Trump, because the points have dominated the news cycle...Jan. 6th, for several years, and the legal issues and trials, what, a year or so. OK, so perhaps Haley was only about taking 2nd away from DeSantis, but still, that's a lotta work and money for a couple delegates. And cord cutting is definitely A Thing. I'd also be curious to get a detailed examination on where the campaigns are buying those ads...because it's possible, the effective reach stats may well be *lower*. My thought...couple weeks ago, I commented about Haley and DeSantis ads. Very likely during some football game. I know I saw multiple Haley ads at that time...but is there additional impact, is there notably improved coverage, in buying multiple slots? I believe the first 2 Haley ads showed within...half an hour of each other? Feels like a LOT of overlap that won't do any good. From a media perspective, tho, Trump has the overwhelming advantage in not needing to spend money. I don't believe in "there's no such thing as bad publicity"...but all downsides WRT the Trump trials have already been turned into road pizza. So he continues to be able to portray himself as the martyr, the fighter, and paint his enemies with green vitriol. As such, this is a bizarre Republican primary season.

Using 6E's half die for the stun multiplier basically quashed the VERY high STUN potential. Rolling 12d6, 48+ STUN: 18% 51+ STUN: 8% 54+ STUN: 2.5% 4d6 KA, the high STUN needs a high BODY roll, then a 3 STUN mult (1 in 3). So, for example, 48 STUN is 1/3 of 16 BODY. 48+ STUN: 11% 51+ STUN: 8% 54+ STUN: 5.3% 57+ STUN: 3.2% The factor is that you've only got the 1 in 3 chance of a 3, on the STUN mult...well, OK, 24 BODY and a 2 STUN mult gives 48 STUN total, but that's minuscule. For 42 STUN normal, it's 53%. For 14+ BODY *and* a 3 STUN, it's 19%, factoring in the 21+ BODY with a 2 STUN MULT (adds 1%). So, broadly speaking... 1/3 of the time, a KA will do no, or very little STUN...roll in the lower half for BODY, then 1 or 2 STUN mult. 1/6 of the time, upper half for BODY, but a 1 for STUN...does no STUN. Roll 15-18 BODY, 30%; 2 STUN mult. So, +10% So, a full 60% of your attacks will get very little STUN through. Or, for the exhaustive...this is rounded to the nearest percent of STUN from the attack: P(total stun at least 4) -- 100 P(total stun at least 5) -- 100 P(total stun at least 6) -- 100 P(total stun at least 7) -- 100 P(total stun at least 😎 -- 99 P(total stun at least 9) -- 98 P(total stun at least 10) -- 97 P(total stun at least 11) -- 95 P(total stun at least 12) -- 92 P(total stun at least 13) -- 88 P(total stun at least 14) -- 85 P(total stun at least 15) -- 81 P(total stun at least 16) -- 77 P(total stun at least 17) -- 73 P(total stun at least 18) -- 70 P(total stun at least 19) -- 66 P(total stun at least 20) -- 65 P(total stun at least 21) -- 62 P(total stun at least 22) -- 61 P(total stun at least 23) -- 58 P(total stun at least 24) -- 58 P(total stun at least 26) -- 54 P(total stun at least 27) -- 50 P(total stun at least 28) -- 49 P(total stun at least 30) -- 45 P(total stun at least 32) -- 39 P(total stun at least 33) -- 36 P(total stun at least 34) -- 33 P(total stun at least 36) -- 31 P(total stun at least 38) -- 25 P(total stun at least 39) -- 24 P(total stun at least 40) -- 20 P(total stun at least 42) -- 19 P(total stun at least 44) -- 15 P(total stun at least 45) -- 15 P(total stun at least 46) -- 11 P(total stun at least 48) -- 11 P(total stun at least 51) -- 8 P(total stun at least 54) -- 5 P(total stun at least 57) -- 3 P(total stun at least 60) -- 2 P(total stun at least 63) -- 1 P(total stun at least 66) -- 0 P(total stun at least 69) -- 0 P(total stun at least 72) -- 0 Now, for comparison...roll 12d6 1,000,000 times, and I get the following: P(total stun at least 16) -- 100 P(total stun at least 17) -- 100 P(total stun at least 18) -- 100 P(total stun at least 19) -- 100 P(total stun at least 20) -- 100 P(total stun at least 21) -- 100 P(total stun at least 22) -- 100 P(total stun at least 23) -- 100 P(total stun at least 24) -- 100 P(total stun at least 25) -- 100 P(total stun at least 26) -- 100 P(total stun at least 27) -- 100 P(total stun at least 28) -- 99 P(total stun at least 29) -- 99 P(total stun at least 30) -- 98 P(total stun at least 31) -- 97 P(total stun at least 32) -- 96 P(total stun at least 33) -- 95 P(total stun at least 34) -- 92 P(total stun at least 35) -- 90 P(total stun at least 36) -- 86 P(total stun at least 37) -- 82 P(total stun at least 38) -- 77 P(total stun at least 39) -- 72 P(total stun at least 40) -- 66 P(total stun at least 41) -- 60 P(total stun at least 42) -- 53 P(total stun at least 43) -- 47 P(total stun at least 44) -- 40 P(total stun at least 45) -- 34 P(total stun at least 46) -- 28 P(total stun at least 47) -- 23 P(total stun at least 48) -- 18 P(total stun at least 49) -- 14 P(total stun at least 50) -- 10 P(total stun at least 51) -- 8 P(total stun at least 52) -- 5 P(total stun at least 53) -- 4 P(total stun at least 54) -- 3 P(total stun at least 55) -- 2 P(total stun at least 56) -- 1 P(total stun at least 57) -- 1 The higher STUN rolls, either way, aren't that different. The problem is that the LOW!! STUN from the KA is extremely common...and it's extremely RARE for the normal attack. Looking at your test construction...Hardpoint has very low total defenses, only 20. OK, he's hard to stun...but he's going down on the 2nd hit from normal attacks over half the time. Maelstrom will probably not get KO'd by 2 normal energy attacks, at least. But my problem's the BODY damage. Part of it is...someone dropped down to 0 BODY or below, should lose considerable effectiveness. OK, it's heroic/superheroic, so...yeah, valiantly fighting on and all that. I get it. But the flip side, to me, is...being that seriously injured *should be something to avoid.* It should not be considered a normal or routine aspect of the combat style. And this is where KAs have problems: because, for the same DCs, the risk of high BODY is SO much higher. This forces fairly significant investments into resistant defenses, or potentially...forget long recovery times, hello risk of character death. Note that Maelstrom isn't a "normal defenses" guy...40% of his defenses are *resistant*.

Yeah, my feeling is that in 2020, the Democrats were completely galvanized to vote. This time...I hope they're still galvanized, because the Republicans will trumpet the "don't let it get stolen again!" line. They'll be out in force as well. I expect that we'll have a record turnout.

I don't see the implication, and by and large, I don't see large numbers of Republicans turning away from Trump. Because, ok, Trump might not be their first choice, but they'll still vote for him. IMO, the compelling number was what I noted earlier...65% still felt the election was stolen. That bloc will never vote Biden.

picks, most confident to least confident... Lions over Bucs. Niners over Packers Ravens over Texans. I'm still not totally sold on Lamar Jackson. Chiefs over Bills. I'm always a bit worried about teams that sat out, at this point...point to the Lions. And the Bucs...the Eagles are no measuring stick now. The first 3 games could all turn into blowouts. Chiefs-Bills...who avoids critical mistakes? Weather forecast is not great...mid teens, but 15-20 mph winds...but could be a WHOLE lot worse.

In Ashes Born (Nathan Lowell again, 2015)

Trump wins Iowa. DeSantis finishes slightly ahead of Haley. Ramaswamy suspends his campaign, getting less than 8%.

That's a point about the Dallas game, too...on the defensive side. GB ran 54 offensive plays. Dallas played with 6 OR MORE DBs on 48 of em...despite the fact that Jones ran the ball 21 times and averaged almost 6. The Cowboy defensive weaknesses were equally well known, and the Packers *constantly* exploited them...and Dallas made no adjustments. Worst performances of this round...Cowboys, hands down, then Eagles, then Dolphins. Sizable gap for me, then Steelers and Browns, both of whom get a bit of a pass because both, IMO, *tried*...but just didn't have the talent. Best performance...Houston and Green Bay share the honors, IMO. Some of you will break that tie based on the delight felt by crushing their particular opponents.

They had...glimpses. But so much erratic play. Like the 4th and 5, after taking the FG off. Plausible call, but the line couldn't hold up at all and Hurts really never had a chance. Buck and Aikman have made the point that the Eagles lost both coordinators from last season, as they're *loosely* speculating at this point whether Siriani could get fired, based on this complete collapse...10-1, near-lock on the division, then implosion. I'm thinking, not Siriani, but both coordinators. And I won't be too surprised if Siriani is part of the purge, as I agree...the Eagles don't look like a team with any self-belief. And it's not like, IMO, Tampa Bay's that good. They've made a TON of mistakes themselves. EDIT: opening lines for the divisional round. Only Chiefs-Bills is particularly close, Bills -2.5. Ravens -8.5 over Texans, Niners -9.5 over Packers, Lions -5.5 over Bucs.

Q: So...I get it's Halloween and all, but who'd you come as....Colonel Mustard? A: A functional definition of insanity is repeating the same action after numerous trials have given the same outcome.

ABC News at halftime reporting that Trump's projected to take Iowa based on exit polls. NO surprise there, of course. The surprise, to a degree...they reported that exit polling *still* shows that 65% say that Biden's win wasn't legitimate. I think hearing that is more depressing than surprising, tho.

To echo Old Man's post...does anyone think the Eagles have any real shot at coming back? Despite the fact that the Bucs can't close the deal? Because even if their drives are mostly stalling, they're still eating up the clock while getting *something* each time. Well...maybe. 2 big passes have the Eagles down deep, so it's only a 1 score game. And the Bucs just gift them with a tush push......that they DON'T CONVERT!!!! Amazingly! Still 16-9.

Double Share (Nathan Lowell, c. 2015 IIRC)

So, watching some MLK Day basketball before the football. From the CBS crawl: What we learned from the Wild Card Round, Day 2: Dak, Cowboys remain frauds. That isn't a word I expect to see outside the rabble-rouser talking heads. And now we get a CBS broadcast...which means Romo. He probably won't rip the Boys, Dak, or McCarthy, but I'm curious to hear how far he'll go. It's too much of an elephant in the room for him NOT to comment.

A Tale of Two Cities

No, that's not a direction of motion it's built for, but hopefully, it wasn't forced *too* far in that direction. They generally don't show busted bones...that are suddenly at 45-90 degree angles from where they're supposed to be. There's nothing visibly disturbing...well, except that we know that HAS to hurt a ton, so I expect many of us wince sympathetically...or graphic there, fortunately, and Higbee's life wasn't at risk. Heh. Wish I'd made a Lasts Longer bet. Which Texas team will be playing the latest in the season? Or, same bet...between the Lions and Cowboys? At the start of the season.

You have momentum as you breach, where does that go? If you buy your Swimming as Usable as Leap, then on *dry ground* your inches of swimming apply to your leap, as well. There's no suggestion that's desired.