2022 Baseball Thread

[Pariah]

...and the aforementioned Rocks are currently 19 games below .500, and dead last in the NL West. But they're better than the last place teams in the NL Central, NL East, and AL West, and better than two teams in the AL Central. So, Yea, I guess?

[unclevlad]

The Nats' magic number to be eliminated from the expanded wild card race is 8.  With 6 games for them between now and Labor Day, 3 against the Mets, and 6 for the Padres...altho 3 of those are against the Dodgers...it's entirely plausible that the Nats will be eliminated before Labor Day.  Back in the days of only 1 WC?  They'd actually already be eliminated from the WC already.  Their elimination number for the division would be 4 *today*.

 

The Rockies simply cannot win on the road.  They're the only team who hasn't won 20 road games yet.  

 

Might also give the Nats a bit of a break...Mets and Braves are basically playoff locks, and 2nd and 4th in the NL.  Philly is up to #5, tho.  The Nats are 9-42 against the NL East, BY FAR the worst in-division record in the majors.  Second worst is the Red Sox at 18-36.  That's just bad;  9-42 is indescribably awful for baseball.  Against everyone else, the Nats are 34-43.  That's not good, but it's at least offering some hope.

[Cygnia]

[unclevlad]

Showcase game of the year.

Dodgers-Mets in Citi.  Already a great start.

DeGrom...I think his 2nd game back.  Goes 7, gives up 3 hits and 1 run.  To the DODGERS, no less.

 

Mets take a 2-1 lead into the 9th.  They bring in Edwin Diaz to hold the game down.  His walk-in music is Narco, a collaborative piece first released 5 years ago.  The Mets had brought in Timmy Trumpet, an Aussie musician, and the man who did the trumpet solo...but Diaz never made it in last night.  So....he came back tonight.  Incredible walk-up piece.  Maybe not Enter Sandman or Hell's Bells...but if not, bloody close.  And the live solo was awesome.  (Trumpet did Take Me Out to the Ball Game last night solo, and it was also awesome.  The guy is seriously good, IMO.)

 

I just saw:  him staying over was a big deal.  His web site shows his next tour date is Sept. 2nd.....in Singapore. 

 

If you haven't heard it...I hadn't...

 

[unclevlad]

AMAZING catch just now.  No video YET...and in fact it's being reviewed...

 

Seattle-Detroit, Seattle's making our rainbirds happy, 6-0.  Fly ball going foul in medium left field.  Shortstop is tracking, tracking, tracking...approaching the stands, reaching....INTO THE NET!!! and makes the catch.  Or...ok, almost, it's overturned.  The ball may have hit the net, and it did come out as he fell back.

 

But:  the guy was able to make a flying dive that would have planted him in the 3rd or 4th row of the seats...and THIS was prevented by the net.  Fortunately.  He was going to be laying out and VERY vulnerable.

[Cancer]

About halfway down the page here has a video clip.  It was Haggerty, the LF.

[Pariah]

As opposed to Fogerty, who wants to be Centerfield.

[Cancer]

Don't know if we have any college students here, but this seems incredible:

 

 

[Pariah]

Lady P is a college student....

[Cancer]

My daughter (who lives in the same house as me) is a college student ....

[unclevlad]

Holy epic collapse, Batman!

 

Rays have pulled to within *3* in the loss column to the Yankees, winning again today 2-1.  The offense has been anemic...and they put Benintendi on the IL today with, IIRC, wrist inflammation.

 

The saving grace for them may be that the Rays have 9 against the Blue Jays and 6 against the Astros...and that they have 18 games in 17 days...3 with Yanks, 9 with Jays (including a double header), 3 with Astros.  Then 1 off-day and finish with 9 on the road...Cleveland, Houston, Boston.

 

AL East has an amazing # of division games left.  Baltimore and Toronto have *10* against each other.  

[unclevlad]

Yankees pulled out the win today, but not in a confidence-boosting way.  Up 2-0, top 8th...runners on 2nd and 3rd with none out, they don't score.  Continuation of massive offensive drought.  Bottom 9th...double, fly ball deep enough to let the runner advance to 3rd.  Single, scoring.  Line out.  Double, so winning run in scoring position...and the run didn't score because the ball was pulled down 3rd, hit the seats down the foul line, and bounced back into the field.  Let that ball go into the corner?  Runner would likely have been sent, and I think he would've scored.

 

So, 2 outs, the count gets to full.  Last pitch is called a low strike...but it was down.  SHOULD have been a walk.

 

So they escape, but nothing about it was great.

 

In other news, it's possible Dallas Keuchel's career may be over.  Fifth in the Cy Youhg as recently as 2020, but since then...a disaster.  DFA'd by Texas after 2 disastrous starts, it's the 3rd time this year.  14 starts, 9 ERA, 2-9 record.

[slikmar]

Regarding last 2 posts, if you ask my brother (who believes in some(well, a lot of) conspiracies) the Yankees problems started when statistical sites started noticing that the same launch angle and exit velocity for them were HRs and not for other teams. There apparently is a story out there when teams played Yankees, the home umpire throws a ball from one pouch to their pitcher and from the other for the opposing one. Also, he would tell you that those balls are still being used for Judge, but not the rest. I don't buy a lot of his stuff, (for instance, why does anybody pitch to Judge when no one else in lineup is hitting - he should be getting the Bonds treatment - he has like 15 intentional walks, it should be double that), but at no point since Ruth has one player led in the HR stat as much as Judge does, 2nd is 20+ behind him.

[unclevlad]

19 hours ago, slikmar said:

Regarding last 2 posts, if you ask my brother (who believes in some(well, a lot of) conspiracies) the Yankees problems started when statistical sites started noticing that the same launch angle and exit velocity for them were HRs and not for other teams. There apparently is a story out there when teams played Yankees, the home umpire throws a ball from one pouch to their pitcher and from the other for the opposing one. Also, he would tell you that those balls are still being used for Judge, but not the rest. I don't buy a lot of his stuff, (for instance, why does anybody pitch to Judge when no one else in lineup is hitting - he should be getting the Bonds treatment - he has like 15 intentional walks, it should be double that), but at no point since Ruth has one player led in the HR stat as much as Judge does, 2nd is 20+ behind him.

 

Yeah, well, conspiracy theorists mold any piece of information to fit their narrative, regardless of the Rube Goldberg nature of some...like this one.

 

Judge is getting his homers when no one's on, from what I've seen.  Altho you may also be right that he could get walked more.  EDIT:  and here's another case.  Judge nails a 2 run HR, bottom 6th, tie game.  So another possibility is that the stats guys HATE!!!!! giving bases up, HATE!!!! putting a runner in scoring position.  (There was a runner on first.)  And there's a massive weakness with analytics people:  failing to go past the surface implications.  The numbers are versus average hitters......not Aaron Judge.

 

Watching Twins-Yanks right now.  Interesting stat...on this day in 1918, Babe Ruth threw a shut-out in game 1 of the World Series.  Ohh...ok.  1918 was the year the US entered the European War, and Labor Day was the original deferral date given to MLB players for enlisting or risk being drafted.  So the season was shortened.

 

Still, looking over the schedule played...and then checking 1923...the opening date was mid-April.  They still got the games in...because in part, double headers were VERY common.  July 4th, 1923...every team played a double header.  Obviously, the 4th, and the biggest holiday of the season.  But you can find QUITE a few scattered through the schedule, particularly in the summer with the longer days.

 

Oh, BTW:  Judge only leads the AL by 20-something.  He only leads the majors by 18......<snark off>   I don't pay that much attention to those things, but this wouldn't surprise me if it's the largest margin for the homer title ever.  VERY likely in the modern game...call that post-1958, when the Dodgers and Giants left their tiny ballparks in New York.  There's a note I found about the 1899 season, where one player hit 25...the next best was 12.  But one of the fences was less than 200 feet from the plate.  In 2010, Bautista had 54, Pujols had 42.  In  '65, Mays had 52, McCovey 39.  That looks to be the largest margin since WW II, unless I messed up clicking through the Baseball Reference numbers... 

 

 

[slikmar]

6 hours ago, unclevlad said:

 

Yeah, well, conspiracy theorists mold any piece of information to fit their narrative, regardless of the Rube Goldberg nature of some...like this one.

 

Judge is getting his homers when no one's on, from what I've seen.  Altho you may also be right that he could get walked more.  EDIT:  and here's another case.  Judge nails a 2 run HR, bottom 6th, tie game.  So another possibility is that the stats guys HATE!!!!! giving bases up, HATE!!!! putting a runner in scoring position.  (There was a runner on first.)  And there's a massive weakness with analytics people:  failing to go past the surface implications.  The numbers are versus average hitters......not Aaron Judge.

 

Watching Twins-Yanks right now.  Interesting stat...on this day in 1918, Babe Ruth threw a shut-out in game 1 of the World Series.  Ohh...ok.  1918 was the year the US entered the European War, and Labor Day was the original deferral date given to MLB players for enlisting or risk being drafted.  So the season was shortened.

 

Still, looking over the schedule played...and then checking 1923...the opening date was mid-April.  They still got the games in...because in part, double headers were VERY common.  July 4th, 1923...every team played a double header.  Obviously, the 4th, and the biggest holiday of the season.  But you can find QUITE a few scattered through the schedule, particularly in the summer with the longer days.

 

Oh, BTW:  Judge only leads the AL by 20-something.  He only leads the majors by 18......<snark off>   I don't pay that much attention to those things, but this wouldn't surprise me if it's the largest margin for the homer title ever.  VERY likely in the modern game...call that post-1958, when the Dodgers and Giants left their tiny ballparks in New York.  There's a note I found about the 1899 season, where one player hit 25...the next best was 12.  But one of the fences was less than 200 feet from the plate.  In 2010, Bautista had 54, Pujols had 42.  In  '65, Mays had 52, McCovey 39.  That looks to be the largest margin since WW II, unless I messed up clicking through the Baseball Reference numbers... 

 

 

Like I said, I don't buy into a lot, but added to Judge turning down that contract at beginning of year and KNOWING MLB wants him in NY (they haven't said, but I guarantee it) and they will be one of the few could sign him, the HR thing makes me wonder. Also, he has at least 12 Walk off HRs, a lot when Stanton wasn't in lineup. Unless the bases are loaded in a tie game, there has been NO REASON to pitch to him this season, especially after May or so. So again, he may have solo HRs because his team sucks and can't get on ahead of him, but that feels even more like pitch around him or intentionally walk him. He is at 80 walks with 11 intentional which rank 2nd (Soto has 117 walks) and 3rd behind Ohtani and Alonso. So he ranks high in those categories, so you may be right about the not wanting to put someone on thing.

[unclevlad]

MLB wants Judge in a major market, but they're not gonna worry about *which* that much.  Plus, is anyone else really viable?  How many teams can afford him?  And what would be wrong with Boston?  Hey, the buzz!!!! Reverse-Ruth man!!!  Dodgers are likely out...not necessarily, but with their massive payroll already, the luxury tax hit would be crushing.  Cubs, no.  I don't see Judge going there, but again...MLB would be happy.  Big PR there.  

 

It simply does not make enough difference that MLB would risk the *entire integrity of the sport* to do this.  If anyone could PROVE MLB was complicit?  My god, it would make Black Sox look like tampering over a minor leaguer.  It would be a crushing blow that would damage the game for *years*.

 

A recurring comment from the people on MLB Network has been that the managers have little or nothing to do with the game, on most teams.  All decisions are driven by the analytics people.  I'm an analytics guy.  It's just way, way too easy to fall into traps...in basketball, the Rockets fell into the massive trap in the past, of layups or 3-pointers only.  They don't realize that the mid-range threat improves the 3 point looks.  In football, it's stuff like the pitch play in the FSU-LSU game that gave LSU the ball back.  In poker, always making the mathematically correct play does NOT win...because it gives too much info to your opponent when you fail to vary your play.  Analytics can be extremely short-sighted and miss nuance because it fails to shape the question properly.

[slikmar]

And again yesterday. Twins are trying hold off a charging White Sox and catch Guardians. Tied 2-2 with Yankees, Judge up, man on first. As soon as you got to 3-1, just walk the guy and take your chance with next batter, trust me, any old school manager would have. Nope, hang a 3-1 pitch up there, you lose 5-2. I realize walking him puts man in scoring position, but you have to make someone else on the Yankees beat you at this point.

[unclevlad]

30 minutes ago, slikmar said:

And again yesterday. Twins are trying hold off a charging White Sox and catch Guardians. Tied 2-2 with Yankees, Judge up, man on first. As soon as you got to 3-1, just walk the guy and take your chance with next batter, trust me, any old school manager would have. Nope, hang a 3-1 pitch up there, you lose 5-2. I realize walking him puts man in scoring position, but you have to make someone else on the Yankees beat you at this point.

 

Walk Judge and you have runners on 1st and 2nd, none out.  What's the run expectation in that situation?  OTOH, *if you can get Judge out* you're in great shape.  That's the analytical though process...and its flaw, to overvalue the self-validating outcome and undervalue all others, and to lose the individual player impact in the sea of numbers.  

 

Now...what was the actual strategy?  I was loosely watching.  The pitches weren't that close.  So, was it a semi-pitch around?  Pitch carefully, don't give him anything to hit, if you walk him...not great but manageable?  That's just a recipe for disaster.  And when you get to 3-1, WALK HIM.  Because at 3-1 the hitter's waiting for a mistake.  Was it pitches just missing from the start?  Still get to the point that at 3-1, disaster's looming, and the worst-case scenario is becoming too likely.

 

The Twins are not a good team, either.  Yeah, fine, they're fighting for a division, but in a bad division.  Cleveland is 5 over...8 over against the division.  Minnesota is 3 over...and 9 over versus the division.  They're staying alive by feasting on Detroit...23-38 in the division.  KC to a lesser degree, they're 26-30.  The division as a whole is a collective 50 games under .500.  311-361, .462 win percentage.  That would slot them between the D'Backs and Angels.  (The NL Central is about as bad, tho, because they've got 3 very bad teams.)

 

So, yeah...I'll agree that stupidity is the norm in sports.  Or maybe brainlock.  The numbers are used badly.  And they got burned.

 

 

[unclevlad]

Baltimore has been a great story this summer, making a major turnaround and, IIRC, actually reaching a point of being the 3rd wild card.  But that run may have come to a close yesterday, as Toronto swept a doubleheader...in Baltimore.  Toronto was only 2.5 up going in, but that took it to 4.5, and 5 in the loss column.  With 27 and 28 games left, that's a decent working margin.  The Battle of the Birds has 8 more rounds to go, starting with tonight and tomorrow, but the Orioles now probably have to take at least 5 of the 8.

[Pariah]

22 hours ago, unclevlad said:

MLB wants Judge in a major market, but they're not gonna worry about *which* that much.  Plus, is anyone else really viable?  How many teams can afford him?  And what would be wrong with Boston?  Hey, the buzz!!!! Reverse-Ruth man!!!  Dodgers are likely out...not necessarily, but with their massive payroll already, the luxury tax hit would be crushing.  Cubs, no.  I don't see Judge going there, but again...MLB would be happy.  Big PR there.  

 

Or he could sign with Colorado, and then go the entire season without hitting a single home run at Coors Field.

 

Oh, wait, that's already been done.

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

 

[unclevlad]

Rules changes have been made official today.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2023-rule-changes-pitch-timer-larger-bases-shifts

 

--Pitch clock, including a rule that the batter has to be in the box.  Love this.  Super-fidgety hitters and slow pitchers are incredibly annoying.

--The infield shift is out.  Hate this.  Just caves in to robotic hitting.  OTOH, the fact is...that's how it's taught ALL the way back to elementary schoolers (a comment I've heard a few times) so expecting hitters to adjust is impractical.

 

The bases go from 15 to 18 inches as well.  Fundamentally, the goal here is safety, to help avoid collisions and tripping, particularly at 1st.

 

So pretty much what's been discussed all year, I think.  

 

EDIT:  ....how much ya wanna bet that the conspiracy theory types will argue favoritism...that the clock's started slower for Yankee pitchers, for example.  One thing that MIGHT happen...if this is operated by the home team, then there's a more plausible case for favoritism.  Not sure who'll run this, tho.

[slikmar]

10 hours ago, unclevlad said:

The infield shift is out.  Hate this.  Just caves in to robotic hitting.  OTOH, the fact is...that's how it's taught ALL the way back to elementary schoolers (a comment I've heard a few times) so expecting hitters to adjust is impractical.

The only good argument I have heard for this is that now having to put 2 guys on each side of 2nd (I didnt like this part, but was ok with the guys have to start on dirt, because honestly, the shift that puts an infielder in shallow outfield only affects left handed hitters, you can't do that against right handers, the throw is too far) will mean you can no longer hide immobile 2nd baseman (not that there are many) because of the shift. You will need more athletic players around the infield.

also, part of the base thing, along with pitch clock (love this also), is to influence teams trying to steal more. We will see if it works.

 

Unclevlad, on a personal note, I have enjoyed having someone besides my brother to discuss baseball with the last couple weeks on this forum and look forward to much more. None of my local inner circle, primarily my wife and her family, are baseball fans, or even much of sports fans.

[unclevlad]

I've seen shifts against certain right-handers.  It's not common;  generally it's the lumbering types, IIRC, who hammer the ball but also take forever to get down the line.  Catchers, for example.

 

They were talking about this during the games today, and afterward on MLB Network.  A big factor was BABiP, batting average on balls in play...has been dropping, because the radical shift...SS or 3rd base 2-3 steps on the right side of 2nd, 2nd baseman 7-10 steps into the outfield.  Note that also means the 2nd baseman's countering a number of fly balls, AND is allowing the right fielder to play deeper.  So...yeah, I can see it.  They were saying it was a pretty sizable drop.  They also mentioned the immobile, or less mobile, 2nd baseman.  This might be more common than one would think at first glance...because no slap hitters are allowed.  So 2nd basemen today are...I don't think the size of 3rd basemen of 25 years ago, but maybe?  Can't say as I really looked.  We KNOW shortstops are consistently bigger...let's leave Oneal Cruz out of this for the moment, he's an aberration no matter what, but there's 9 shortstops right now with 15+ HRs.  And base stealing is way down...that's another classic 2nd baseman angle.  So, maybe the mobile 2nd baseman is much less common.

 

I HATE the change because, as far as I'm concerned, any tactical choices should be allowed.  Smart play...shifting properly...should never be banned.  OTOH, I agree that the game is SERIOUSLY boring because there's so little action...along with, at times, horribly slow pace of play.  I still don't know how much banning shifts will help, but clearly it will...or it wouldn't be league-wide.

 

Oh, the reason why, I think, it's "feet on the dirt" is because without it, you would probably see quite a bit of pushing the limits...shortstop as close to 2nd as allowed, AND leaning towards 1st.  (I'm not sure when the infielders are allowed to move, but I suspect it's when the pitch is released.)  With the 2nd baseman in about his same position as npw, perhaps a step or two towards 2nd...he'll still get to many sharp 2-hoppers that get past the first baseman, he still covers the mid-depths, he still allows the right fielder to play deeper.  Force his feet onto the dirt, and none of that's possible.

 

I don't think the larger bases will make any difference on steals...at least not tactically.  90 feet is 1080 inches.  We're talking 4 1/2 inches shorter, base edge to base edge, so that's 1 part in 240.  If stealing a base takes 3 seconds, we're talking about 1/100th of a second.  Yeah, on occasion, that will come into play, but tactically?  Meaningless.  Other factors will matter more...such as, if mobility becomes more valued, if the singles and doubles hitters' value increases, if the game moves away from "all I do is hit dingers"...steals will be more valuable.  I believe there's been *some* move in that direction, by some teams, anyway.  Another angle:  the Yankees' major issues last year were:
--all blasters, no one getting on base first (the Dodgers are THE model here)

--serious defensive limitations, if not downright deficiencies.

 

They'd seemingly addressed those when they were running away with everything...but more recently?  No one's getting on, AND they're not blasting that much.  Running creates more scoring chances, and it forces defensive mistakes.  The analytics guys tend to miss that latter.  

 

Tell ya one thing my sadistic streak is looking forward to.  The veteran pitcher who's never dealt with the pitch clock...who's done it His Way for 10 years...then gets called for ball 4 because he takes too long.  I'm looking forward to the blow-up on the field...even if he can't argue, there's a real good chance it'll rattle him *good*...and then the post-game meltdown.  BTW, this was, from reports, part of the reason why the players *didn't* vote for the pitch clock.  Tough noogies, kiddies.  Cope.  This is in your control.

[slikmar]

I think the biggest thing will help base stealing is the pitch changes:

The clock first, so no standing there holding the ball for 30 seconds or whatever.

Only allowed to step off twice.

only allowed to throw over once - meaning once you do, runner can take as big a lead as they want, which means if they do, next pitch probably a quick pitch, which are usually never as good as your stretch/windup pitches.

 

They showed on MLBNow pitchers who take longest with no one on base - all relievers. Longest was Kenley Jansen at 26 seconds.