2022 Baseball Thread

[Grailknight]

Wow! Still last in the division but only 2 games behind Toronto and Seattle(also Wow!) for the last Wild Card spot.

[Cancer]

If it wasn't still the first half of July I might get excited.  But I have learned wisdom over the last 45 years.

[unclevlad]

OK, but considering their high water wins total over the last 3 full seasons was all of 54...43 before the ASB is amazing.

 

Helps they've won 8 straight.

 

So...playoffs?  Ehhh, probably not, but also not impossible.  The AL East...other than the Yankees...is likely to cannibalize each other.  The Orioles have one big thing going for them here:  they've already played the Yankees 13 times.  They went 4-9...more or less the same as everyone else.  But they've only got 6 left, so...who knows.  They're 39-35 against everyone else.

 

 

[unclevlad]

Oh, and just for grins, I checked the schedule structure for next season.  With so many teams vying for the wild card, the current structure was questionable...too tilted  with almost half of each team's games in their own division.  Next year:

 

--in the division:  14 games against every other team (56 games)

--in the league:  6 games against everyone else (60 games)

--interleague:  46 games.  3 games against 14 teams, 3 game series at 1 site (7 home, 7 road), alternating.  So every team plays in every stadium every 2 years.  The 4 game series is the 'natural rivals' as much as that can be pulled off...Dodgers-Angels, Mets-Yankees, Orioles-Nationals, Cards-Royals, Cubs-White Sox, etc.  

 

I'll give them credit for the balancing act.  There aren't that many good solutions, given the constraints involved.

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

 

[Cygnia]

Dodger Stadium concession workers threaten to strike All-Star Game

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

 

[slikmar]

Remember when SS were supposed to be short quick guys. Love this guy so far.

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, slikmar said:

Remember when SS were supposed to be short quick guys. Love this guy so far.

 

Funny, I woulda thought only Cancer and Old Man could remember that far back................

 

[Cancer]

This could also go in the COVID thread...

 

40% of the Royals squad has not been vaccinated, and that's BS

[unclevlad]

23 hours ago, Cancer said:

This could also go in the COVID thread...

 

40% of the Royals squad has not been vaccinated, and that's BS

 

Farce is a good word.  

The Royals are playing in Toronto.  Canada.  With vaccinations required for admission to the country.  The Royals had 10 players.  The story even hit CNN, and probably others.  It's a severe embarrassment for baseball, IMO.  Will the player's assoc agree to do something about it?  Highly doubtful.  Certainly not this year, IMO;  it might be brought up later.  

 

I do think that this will impact those players' current and future value, tho.

 

As the article notes...ok, it's certainly not the only factor, but this says a lot about the culture and attitude of the club, and that is a significant factor, IMO, why teams are BAD,  How this fell apart SO much, SO fast, is a subject for people who pay more attention than me.  Made the series in '14, won it in '15...then fell off the cliff.  Went from 95 wins in '15, to 81 and 80...not horrible but right after a Series trip, that's a lot.  Then lose 100+ for 2 years.  Skip 2020, it's a complete aberration (and they were still not good).  Last year got back to under 90 losses;  that's a little something, but not much.

 

And this is in the AL Central, which has been the weakest division in MLB in most recent years.  Even this year, the Royals are 18-20 in the division...and 18-34 outside the division.

 

Hmm.  Another argument is...baseball is a high-variance, largely random game.  From '96 to 2012, the Royals reached .500 once...not getting a WC.  They lost 100+ 4 times, and 90-99 6 times.  They have the worst cumulative record in MLB since 2000.

 

There is an interesting story from May about their problem

https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/5/23/23137246/the-royals-are-awful-the-problem-is-that-they-are-awful-and-trying-to-win

 

Elsewhere:  Juan Soto has apparently turned down a deal from the Nats

15 years.

$440M.

 

My first take is, this slams the Nats.  He's not turning down the deal, he's rejecting the club.  Which is plausible;  here's another team that won a Series, then imploded.  I don't follow em, but...other than him, who's left?  IIRC, the Nats sold their team's soul to win that Series...could be wrong.  Then free agent departure after departure.  This is the last rat left on the ship, seems like.

 

Flip side:  these are really bad deals, IMO, for the club.  Soto's 23, so, OK...6 years for something like $200M?  I can see that.  He's been that good.  These insanely long, insanely pricey deals don't work out, tho.

[slikmar]

MLB guys were talking about this and mentioned that with the Blue Jays poised to make the playoffs, even as a wild card (perhaps the home wildcard) that now you affect the trade deadline, because if you are a playoff team, do you trade for a rental player who can't go play in Toronto?

[unclevlad]

11 minutes ago, slikmar said:

MLB guys were talking about this and mentioned that with the Blue Jays poised to make the playoffs, even as a wild card (perhaps the home wildcard) that now you affect the trade deadline, because if you are a playoff team, do you trade for a rental player who can't go play in Toronto?

 

Think I saw that too, altho I wasn't exactly paying attention...

 

It'd be foolish for Toronto;  it might not be a big deal for anyone else.  Figure:  Toronto 

a)  has to make the playoffs, then

b)  you have to be matched up against them

c)  if it's the first round, it might only be for 1 game

d)  IF it's a pitcher?  It should be feasible to work around it anyway

 

One thing that will be interesting is to see what some of the borderline teams...especially the Orioles...do.  Me, I wouldn't mortgage the future, but many teams do.  

[Grailknight]

1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

 

Farce is a good word.  

The Royals are playing in Toronto.  Canada.  With vaccinations required for admission to the country.  The Royals had 10 players.  The story even hit CNN, and probably others.  It's a severe embarrassment for baseball, IMO.  Will the player's assoc agree to do something about it?  Highly doubtful.  Certainly not this year, IMO;  it might be brought up later.  

 

I do think that this will impact those players' current and future value, tho.

 

As the article notes...ok, it's certainly not the only factor, but this says a lot about the culture and attitude of the club, and that is a significant factor, IMO, why teams are BAD,  How this fell apart SO much, SO fast, is a subject for people who pay more attention than me.  Made the series in '14, won it in '15...then fell off the cliff.  Went from 95 wins in '15, to 81 and 80...not horrible but right after a Series trip, that's a lot.  Then lose 100+ for 2 years.  Skip 2020, it's a complete aberration (and they were still not good).  Last year got back to under 90 losses;  that's a little something, but not much.

 

And this is in the AL Central, which has been the weakest division in MLB in most recent years.  Even this year, the Royals are 18-20 in the division...and 18-34 outside the division.

 

Hmm.  Another argument is...baseball is a high-variance, largely random game.  From '96 to 2012, the Royals reached .500 once...not getting a WC.  They lost 100+ 4 times, and 90-99 6 times.  They have the worst cumulative record in MLB since 2000.

 

There is an interesting story from May about their problem

https://www.royalsreview.com/2022/5/23/23137246/the-royals-are-awful-the-problem-is-that-they-are-awful-and-trying-to-win

 

Elsewhere:  Juan Soto has apparently turned down a deal from the Nats

15 years.

$440M.

 

My first take is, this slams the Nats.  He's not turning down the deal, he's rejecting the club.  Which is plausible;  here's another team that won a Series, then imploded.  I don't follow em, but...other than him, who's left?  IIRC, the Nats sold their team's soul to win that Series...could be wrong.  Then free agent departure after departure.  This is the last rat left on the ship, seems like.

 

Flip side:  these are really bad deals, IMO, for the club.  Soto's 23, so, OK...6 years for something like $200M?  I can see that.  He's been that good.  These insanely long, insanely pricey deals don't work out, tho.

 

Soto was correct to reject that deal. First off the average salary is too low. (Hard to say that as a normal working person.)  Judge rejected 30 million/year and Soto is the same caliber of player and 7 years younger. Secondly, it's too long. It would suppress the value of what would normally be his peak years contract(28-32 years old) and lock him into one team for his entire career. Barring injuries or a collapse of the major league economy and salary structure that offer was all in the Nationals favor. It's the type of offer you make and make public to win the court of public opinion. 

[unclevlad]

True;  from a player's standpoint, getting locked in for that long has some significant downsides.  Something like I mentioned, he gets another bite when he's 29.  Another 5, maybe 6 year deal, at...what, $40-45M a year at that point?  And if he takes a big pay cut when that one's over, he can still probably pull $20M a year.

 

So....yeah, you're probably right.  It would've been stupid.

 

I'll still say, the Nats may have burned this bridge down.  Accept the point that they're trying to win the PR game with the fans...that darn sure doesn't make ME want to stay.

[BNakagawa]

The Royals play in the Blow Me State.

[slikmar]

2 hours ago, unclevlad said:

c)  if it's the first round, it might only be for 1 game

First round, 3 games, played in higher seeds park. All 3, so if Toronto higher seed (when they were talking, they were and would have hosted Boston, iirc, you would not have those players for any of the 3 games.

 

On salaries. Baseball, desperately, needs a variation of the Bird rule. Allow every team to sign 1 player or 1 position and 1 pitcher, preferably home grown or been with team for awhile, that does not count against luxury tax, ie, Owner is spending their own money on that player and the team they were on can spend higher then anyone else. Allow teams to keep at least one of their young players instead of them being future Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox or Mets (now).

[unclevlad]

Ohhh...ok, I think I deliberately misread that.  

 

There's still too many factors that have to align, I think.  Have to play Toronto, have to have a worse record.  Toronto's in the 6 slot right now.  The only teams where this could be a factor would be Tampa Bay, Seattle, Boston, and maybe Cleveland, and it's entirely possible Toronto fades out of the picture.

 

Oh, lemme qualify:  if I'm Tampa Bay or Boston?  If I still have a bunch of *regular season* games to play in Canada...ohhh yes.  That might well be a factor.  I'm specifically only addressing the playoffs question.

 

I would be more concerned about the question of why the player has chosen not to be vaccinated.  Too often, IMO, it's simply showing a selfishness and immaturity that's a major red flag in my book.

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, slikmar said:

On salaries. Baseball, desperately, needs a variation of the Bird rule. Allow every team to sign 1 player or 1 position and 1 pitcher, preferably home grown or been with team for awhile, that does not count against luxury tax, ie, Owner is spending their own money on that player and the team they were on can spend higher then anyone else. Allow teams to keep at least one of their young players instead of them being future Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox or Mets (now).

 

This isn't the problem.  Baseball calls it the competitive balance tax.  For 2021 it was set at $210M.  For 2022, here's the total roster values:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

 

Only 5 teams break $210M.

 

The problem in baseball is at the other end.  8 teams' payrolls are less than $100M;  4 are under $70M.  They become de facto farm teams or AAAA teams...their best gets skimmed, whereas the rest of the league uses them as dumping grounds for marginal players.

 

And...ya wanna see why?  

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

 

NOTE:  the link says 2010, but the data is from 2021.  Dodgers are #1 at $565M;  Marlins are HIGHLY unusually low at $96M.  (Oakland is 29th at over $200M.)  Quite a few of them...KC, Arizona, and Pittsburgh are perhaps the most glaring...are pulling in a boatload...but not spending it.  And of course, the massive markets...LA, NY, Chicago, Atlanta, Boston...do pull in FAR more revenue.  But still, I think the "small market team" is at least somewhat of a Big Fat Lie.  The teams *could* spend a lot more than they do.

 

 

[slikmar]

One reason for the discrepancy in income, teams negotiate their local tv contracts, so when you have Yankees and Yes network, Dodgers with Fox/Ballys, Cubs for years with WGN, Atlanta with TBS or TNT (?). Then what happens is, like the Dodgers, they negotiate a tv contract that is obnoxious, why?, because part of same ownership so money isn't really going anywhere. I agree that the low end teams need to spend more, especially as, iirc, most of that competitive balance tax goes to them, but sadly baseball has become either be great or be terrible, don't try to just compete.

[unclevlad]

It's...complicated.  So what else is new.  This is interesting, tho:

 

https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall

 

There's quite a few teams making QUITE a bit of money...Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Seattle, Braves, and Rangers at over $70M in profit, several others over $40M.  Some are spenders, who just happen to have a very favorable situation (Atlanta).  Some are...tricky places to play, like Texas.  That's not a political statement;  pitchers hate it there.  

 

But some have long been considered...tightwads.

 

[unclevlad]

I'm getting OLD.

 

To maximize interest, the MLB draft first round is going on Right Now, with a big crowd at Dodger Stadium.  The #1 pick is a 2nd gen...Matt Holliday's kid.  He's 18????  DOUBLE CHECK THAT BIRTH CERTIFICATE!!!! He looks 12.  Facially, anyway.

 

They've been focusing on a big batch of 2nd gens...3 or 4 of em, in total, that are expected to go VERY high.  And the #2 is Andruw Jones' kid.  Skinny rail.  6'4", only 180.

[unclevlad]

My, my.

 

There's burning your bridges down, then there's burning them, blowing out the supports, and seeing them wash away in a 500 year flood...

 

This is the latter.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2022/07/19/nationals-refused-charter-juan-solo-flight-home-run-derby/10100914002/

[slikmar]

All I can think is no other team knew of this in advance, cause I guarantee any team that will try to trade for him would have said "and let us charter you a plane to LA".

[unclevlad]

44 minutes ago, slikmar said:

All I can think is no other team knew of this in advance, cause I guarantee any team that will try to trade for him would have said "and let us charter you a plane to LA".

 

One writer criticized MLB for not doing that, but yeah...how could they have known, in time to do anything about it?

 

And looking ahead...Harper left, Scherzer left, Soto's leaving.  That's a lot.  That suggests it's not a player-friendly franchise...and that's massively magnified by the pettiness of this incident.  Getting free agents to jump to DC might be quite difficult.