Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

[dmjalund]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

sex lasting for 5 years - too much pressure XP

[RexMundi]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

Yeah that's way to much work. I'd think the chaffing would be an issue as well.

 

~Rex

[NuSoardGraphite]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

Really? 1 in 10? Its that high?

 

When I was designing my Star Hero campaign, I based mine on 1 in 100 and thought I was being optimistic.

 

1% of stars have a solar system. 1% of those have a planet capable of sustaining life. 1% of those actually develop complex lifeforms and 1% of those develop a civilization. So in our galaxy (400 billion stars) there are potentially 400,000 habitable worlds with around 4000 civilizations. Thats how it breaks down in my campaign setting.

[megaplayboy]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

Well, it will be interesting to see if we can nail down more of the values for variables in Drake's equation. It could be that the most plausible value, per galaxy, is "1, at any given time." Even then, though, that'd still live plenty of life-supporting planets, planets that have unintelligent life, planets that have intelligent life incapable of interstellar communication, and planets that used to have intelligent life and might still evidence some remains of those civilizations.

 

I also suspect that, on planets less resource-rich than ours, some civilizations might hit a population wall a lot sooner than we will. And they might not have the energy resources to invest heavily in space exploration or attempting to locate other sentient life elsewhere.

[Ian Mackinder]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

.... And some may simply be not all that motivated, or even the opposite.

 

We humans are a curious bunch by nature, that is a big part of why we do this sort of thing.

 

Another sentient race may not necessarily think that way. A race that consistently "plays it safe" may have a very long and slow period of development, and may even decide that interstellar travel or alien contact is just too risky. So they stay at home and hide a lot. If any aliens are paranoid by nature, they might build Berzerkers to wipe out everybody else -or, again, they might just hide a lot.

 

Or, whatever may pass for politics and/or religion in other races could be a factor as well. We have various flavours of isolationist / exclusionist groups, after all.

[Nyrath]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

.... And some may simply be not all that motivated, or even the opposite.

 

We humans are a curious bunch by nature, that is a big part of why we do this sort of thing.

 

Another sentient race may not necessarily think that way. A race that consistently "plays it safe" may have a very long and slow period of development, and may even decide that interstellar travel or alien contact is just too risky. So they stay at home and hide a lot. If any aliens are paranoid by nature, they might build Berzerkers to wipe out everybody else -or, again, they might just hide a lot.

 

Or, whatever may pass for politics and/or religion in other races could be a factor as well. We have various flavours of isolationist / exclusionist groups, after all.

Well, unfortunately there is something else to consider. The scenarios you outline only explain the lack of observable aliens if every single one of them acts as you say. It only takes one 'bad apple' to ruin the argument.

 

In the history of our galaxy, there might have been ten thousand alien civilizations confined to their home planets. But if there was a single one that was expansionist, they could have colonized the entire galaxy in as little as 50 million years, sub-light. Much less time if they had FTL.

 

Given the age of the Galaxy, this means it could have been entirely colonized 240 times. So where are they? Earth should currently be an alien colony.

[Kristopher]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

Well' date=' unfortunately there is something else to consider. The scenarios you outline only explain the lack of observable aliens if [b']every single one of them[/b] acts as you say. It only takes one 'bad apple' to ruin the argument.

 

In the history of our galaxy, there might have been ten thousand alien civilizations confined to their home planets. But if there was a single one that was expansionist, they could have colonized the entire galaxy in as little as 50 million years, sub-light. Much less time if they had FTL.

 

Given the age of the Galaxy, this means it could have been entirely colonized 240 times. So where are they? Earth should currently be an alien colony.

 

That it is not, however, does not mean anything definitive, except that it is not.

 

It doesn't mean with any certainty that we are alone, or the first, or that interstellar colonization is impossible, or...

[RexMundi]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

Considering the ire that develops on a computer forum, can you just imagine, running into some other Alien race? "Down with you Human! *Shrieks something alien* Made of Epic Fail you are!*

 

~Rex

[austenandrews]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

That it is not, however, does not mean anything definitive, except that it is not.

 

It doesn't mean with any certainty that we are alone, or the first, or that interstellar colonization is impossible, or...

Bingo.

[Nyrath]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

That it is not, however, does not mean anything definitive, except that it is not.

 

It doesn't mean with any certainty that we are alone, or the first, or that interstellar colonization is impossible, or...

 

Yes. In the same way that an oncologist might tell you that chemotherapy for your cancer gives you a 75% survival rate. It doesn't mean with any certainty that you will survive. But that's the way to bet. We are talking about probabilities here.

 

The basic framework of the Fermi Paradox is

The apparent size and age of the universe suggests that many technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilizations ought to exist.

 

However, this hypothesis seems inconsistent with the lack of observational evidence to support it.

 

The main theoretical explanations are:

 

5.1 No other civilizations currently exist

5.1.1 No other civilizations have arisen

5.1.2 It is the nature of intelligent life to destroy itself

5.1.3 It is the nature of intelligent life to destroy others

5.1.4 Human beings were created alone

5.2 They do exist, but we see no evidence

5.2.1 Communication is impossible due to problems of scale

5.2.1.1 Intelligent civilizations are too far apart in space or time

5.2.1.2 It is too expensive to spread physically throughout the galaxy

5.2.1.3 Human beings have not been searching long enough

5.2.2 Communication is impossible for technical reasons

5.2.2.1 Human beings are not listening properly

5.2.2.2 Civilizations only broadcast detectable radio signals for a brief period of time

5.2.2.3 They tend to experience a technological singularity

5.2.3 They choose not to interact with us

5.2.3.1 Earth is purposely isolated (The zoo hypothesis)

5.2.3.2 It is dangerous to communicate

5.2.3.4 They are non-technological

5.2.4 They are here unobserved

 

You can read details about each of the options in the link.

[austenandrews]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

http://xkcd.com/638/

[Kristopher]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

Yes, I've read all sorts of detailed discussions and explorations of the Fermi "Paradox".

 

It doesn't tell us anything.

 

All we know is that we haven't seen signs of anyone else yet. That's it. All that tells us, is exactly that, and only that. Nothing more.

[dmjalund]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

they could have colonized the entire galaxy in as little as 50 million years' date=' sub-light[/quote']

expecting anyone to do ANY SINGLE THING for 50 million years is a bit much. Any colonizing effort would be lucky to last more than thousands of years (it would have to last longer than any earthly civilization.

[Nyrath]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

Yes, I've read all sorts of detailed discussions and explorations of the Fermi "Paradox".

 

It doesn't tell us anything.

 

All we know is that we haven't seen signs of anyone else yet. That's it. All that tells us, is exactly that, and only that. Nothing more.

 

You are nothing if not consistent.

[Clonus]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

expecting anyone to do ANY SINGLE THING for 50 million years is a bit much. Any colonizing effort would be lucky to last more than thousands of years (it would have to last longer than any earthly civilization.

 

That is an inappropriate analysis because of course it would not be a colonizing effort which lasted for 50 million years. It would be many millions of colonizing efforts each of which which lasted no longer than it takes to put together a colonization ship and launch it. Humanity's spread across Earth from wherever it started was not a colonization effort lasting a million years. It was just people inevitably moving on when local socioeconomic conditions prodded them. If over the course of many thousands of years, something does not prod a species to send a colonization ship over to a neighbouring sun or two, that can only be because it is beyond their capability to do it. It costs too much, or they don't have the technology during those thousands of years or they're hardwired to be afraid of space or something. The same thing applies to their successive colonies. Over the next few thousands something will lead them to colonize in turn...unless it really can't be done in which case they never existed in the first place.

[Kristopher]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

You are nothing if not consistent.

 

OK, seriously, what is all the detailed handwringing over the Fermi "Paradox", other than pure speculation?

[dmjalund]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

That is an inappropriate analysis because of course it would not be a colonizing effort which lasted for 50 million years. It would be many millions of colonizing efforts each of which which lasted no longer than it takes to put together a colonization ship and launch it. Humanity's spread across Earth from wherever it started was not a colonization effort lasting a million years. It was just people inevitably moving on when local socioeconomic conditions prodded them. If over the course of many thousands of years' date=' something does not prod a species to send a colonization ship over to a neighbouring sun or two, that can only be because it is beyond their capability to do it. It costs too much, or they don't have the technology during those thousands of years or they're hardwired to be afraid of space or something. The same thing applies to their successive colonies. Over the next few thousands something will lead them to colonize in turn...unless it really can't be done in which case they never existed in the first place.[/quote']

It is infinitely easier to walk a few miles and set up camp than it is to create a multigenerational spacecraft, get enough passengers to have a genetically viable colony to go where they have never been, and may die of old age before they arrive and can never come back from. The first requires nothing more than an argument with the parents, the latter required something along the lines of religious fervour

[Markdoc]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

All we know is that we haven't seen signs of anyone else yet. That's it. All that tells us' date=' is exactly that, and only that. Nothing more.[/quote']

 

Either that, or all known alien races like to sneak up on hicks and ... ermmm ..... probe them.

 

cheers, Mark

[Nyrath]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

Reading the Wiki article, this is where I said "Wait, no."

 

{ Wiki article omitted }

 

Sorry, but this is subjectivist nonsense.

Yeah, I get what you're saying, I've gotten that all along.

 

What I've been saying is, how the hell?

 

The light appearing to do something different, I can accept. The light actually, physically doing all three and more? No, that's just goofy.

Yes, I've read all sorts of detailed discussions and explorations of the Fermi "Paradox".

 

It doesn't tell us anything.

I repeat, you are nothing if not consistent.

[Kristopher]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

I repeat' date=' you are nothing if not consistent.[/quote']

 

Ad hominem? I guess that tells us what we need to know about the defensibility of the "Paradox".

[Cancer]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

It doesn't mean with any certainty that we are alone' date=' or the first, or that interstellar colonization is impossible, or...[/quote']

 

It means that either the set of assumptions that go into initial part of the paradox (that the galaxy gets colonized quickly) is flawed, OR that the second part of the paradox is wrong (i.e., that we are mistaken in asserting that the full colonization of the Galaxy has not occurred). There''s a lot more that goes into the first part than the second, of course. Also, that's a logical or, not an exclusive or. Could be both.

[Kristopher]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

It means that either the set of assumptions that go into initial part of the paradox (that the galaxy gets colonized quickly) is flawed' date=' OR that the second part of the paradox is wrong (i.e., that we are mistaken in asserting that the full colonization of the Galaxy has not occurred). There''s a lot more that goes into the first part than the second, of course. Also, that's a logical or, not an exclusive or. Could be both.[/quote']

 

The key word there is "assumptions". There are so many assumptions that go into it, that calling it a paradox is very presumptive -- there's no paradox there, just conflicting assumptions. It's an utterly speculative throught experiment, nothing more.

[Cancer]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

You'd be surprised at how valuable simple thought experiments like these have been to physics over the last, oh, 150 years. That this one remains unresolved still is part of what makes it interesting.

[RexMundi]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

If you didn't have speculative thought and the arguments between opposing speculative thoughts, you'd never even GET, to the science part. Folks would still be sitting in the cave picking fleas and lice off each other.

 

~Rex

[Kristopher]

Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority

 

If you didn't have speculative thought and the arguments between opposing speculative thoughts' date=' you'd never even GET, to the science part. Folks would still be sitting in the cave picking fleas and lice off each other.[/quote']

 

Well... no. Not really.