Zeropoint Posted January 7, 2010 Report Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority All this exoplanet detection IS exciting, but we STILL don't have enough information to hazard a guess at the odds of a system having earth-like planets. Maybe those system without gas giants have smaller rocky planets that we just can't see. Seems to me like there's still room for GMs to fudge things if they want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nyrath Posted January 7, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority All this exoplanet detection IS exciting, but we STILL don't have enough information to hazard a guess at the odds of a system having earth-like planets. Maybe those system without gas giants have smaller rocky planets that we just can't see. Seems to me like there's still room for GMs to fudge things if they want. And not even fudge. The original analysis is working with a very small sample size. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajackson Posted January 7, 2010 Report Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority Maybe those system without gas giants have smaller rocky planets that we just can't see. The problem is more those systems with gas giants that are either within the life zone, or inside the life zone; modeling strongly suggests that the presence of an inner system gas giant makes rocky planets in the life zone vanishingly unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McCoy Posted January 7, 2010 Report Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority The problem is more those systems with gas giants that are either within the life zone' date=' or inside the life zone; modeling strongly suggests that the presence of an inner system gas giant makes rocky planets in the life zone vanishingly unlikely.[/quote'] Previous modeling also suggested that gas giants would most likely appear at the frost line, the outer limit of the life zone. Reality seems to feel no obligation to correspond to our models. The models will continue to evolve as we get more data. It is also worth noting that the most successful planet-finding technique currently in use detects "hot Jupiters" much more easily than gas giants outside the life zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristopher Posted January 7, 2010 Report Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority There's always the chance, with a big gas giant in the life zone, that you'll get a sufficiently terrestrial satellite for life to be a real possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RexMundi Posted January 7, 2010 Report Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority True, not to mention as a Gas Giant satellite there are a lot of other factors that could help jump start the life process, even if said gas giant is a bit on the edge of the life zone, and hasn't eaten all of it's moons. ~Rex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cancer Posted January 7, 2010 Report Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority All this exoplanet detection IS exciting, but we STILL don't have enough information to hazard a guess at the odds of a system having earth-like planets. Maybe those system without gas giants have smaller rocky planets that we just can't see. Seems to me like there's still room for GMs to fudge things if they want. That's true, but as has been discussed at the AAS meeting this week, we'll have hard numbers soon. The Kepler mission is doing science observations now (started last spring). That is not an all-sky survey, but a stare-at-one-chunk-of-sky-for-4.5-years mission looking for the very small eclipses Terrestrial planets make. It will take those years, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RexMundi Posted January 7, 2010 Report Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority Everything good takes time. ~Rex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L. Marcus Posted January 7, 2010 Report Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority "We will learn patience." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Markdoc Posted January 7, 2010 Report Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority "We will learn patience." I don't have time for that! cheers, Mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L. Marcus Posted January 7, 2010 Report Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority Oh, these professor types ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cancer Posted January 7, 2010 Report Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority Well, when you're finding planets by eclipses ... which happen only once per orbit ... then you have to see something eclipse twice (at least one orbital period between them) before you can claim discovery of a planet. And you can't prove you're right until you observe a third eclipse that you predicted. When you're looking for planets with orbital periods of about a year, well, ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hopcroft Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority I find myself thinking that it could be that, for all practical purposes, we are all alone in the Universe after all. In that any conceivable system that could support human-like life would have to be so far away that even with relativistic time dilation it is impossible to visit it or have people from there visit us. That is somewhat less disturbing than the theory that we are alone in the universe because we have the only planet in the entire Cosmos with just the right conditions to allow for any form of life, not just sapient life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
austenandrews Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority Could be. The idea that we're the only planet with intelligent life is statistically ridiculous, but the idea that we're the only planet with intelligent life that we'll ever see? Not so ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority It doesn't have to be intelligent for us to have sex with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Obvious Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority Paris Hilton's already proven that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hopcroft Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority It doesn't have to be intelligent for us to have sex with it. Oh really, Captain Jack? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sinanju Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority http://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=10934 New astronomical data suggests that solar systems like ours are only found in 1 in ten stars. I find this to be very undramatic, and am going to ignore this result for my campaigns. Yeah, but until recently we didn't know for sure that there were ANY other solar systems. We assumed so, but we didn't KNOW. Now we do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Markdoc Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority Yeah' date=' but until recently we didn't know for sure that there were ANY other solar systems. We assumed so, but we didn't KNOW. Now we do.[/quote'] Yup. And given the possible outcomes, 1 in 10 sounds pretty good to me. cheers, Mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RexMundi Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority 1 in 10 for the sheer volume out there. Provided that is a Volume and not some sort of Simulacrum Like Farmers "World of Tiers" series (heh). 1 in 10 is a LOT. I wouldn't really see to much need to adjust a game setting though. Still means there's a lot of Planets out there for Nathan Brazil to repopulate next time the Universe goes kablooey and the Well World needs to be reset. ~Rex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cancer Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority The upshot of the Kepler mission is: watch this space. In 5 years we'll know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RexMundi Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority Dunno. Hard to get something to focus on one thing for 5 minutes nowadays. heh. ~Rex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L. Marcus Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority *shoots rexie with tranq dart loaded with ritalin* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RexMundi Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority Ouch. ~Rex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Man Posted January 12, 2010 Report Share Posted January 12, 2010 Re: Solar Systems Like Ours in the Minority Dunno. Hard to get something to focus on one thing for 5 minutes nowadays. heh. ~Rex That's why I brought up sex. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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