22 years from now

[RavensPath]

I am working on relaunching a campaign set in 2025. Some of the NPC's will be the kids from the first campaign and things like that.

 

I want the groups input on what the world will be like in 2025. Will everyone be connected wirelessly with the equivalent of AIs? What about the political landscape? The tech rule is that computering power doubles every 18 months. So what does that mean for 22 years from now?

 

Any thoughts or ideas are appreciated.

 

Matthew

[Hermit]

Thoughts on AIs

 

22 years from now in a Super hero genre?

 

Hmm, well, it's 2003 in the REAL World, and I still don't own a flying car like I was promised.... and Buck Rogers wasn't launched in the last of the deep space probes in 89'. However, that's another gripe

 

I think true artificial intelligence might iht a snag that most Tech often squeeks by. If you want to delay or slow the progress (or at least release) of such tech, you could have some groups protesting it over ethical considerations. If you can create an intelligence, a sentient thing, what does that lead to? Slavery? A god complex among humanity?

Think how much debate is going over cloning issues in the real world and use that as a template somewhat.

 

Then there's the economic situation. If AIs are so smart, who needs people for some jobs? Even jobs that were previously untouched. Again, I think forces would move to curtail that just a bit.

 

Naturally, villains and heroes tend to work around such things, but hey

[Emerald Mask]

My guess for 25 years in the future - refinement of things we have or are working on. Nanite technology , smaller possibly implanted communications devices and electronics. I would also think some bionics . A trend I think that might develop is body alteration by gene therapy and surgery. Politically I think it could go either way - a divided America or a unified America that has added states.

[Blue]

Another 22 years and we might just be able to cure a few nagging issues, like the Common Cold (which I have right now) and Cancer, AIDS, MS, etc.

 

Designer viruses that can target a specific person (or family's) DNA. Just dump it in the water system and nail the two or three people you wanted to get.

 

All electric cars. The automotive industry will yield to the oil companies for many years before this happens, but its inevitable.

 

Clearner forms of energy, but by this time we'll have screwed the atmosphere up pretty good.

 

Minor genetic engineering. You might be able to select your child's eye color, etc. This sounds ambitious, considering the pace of genetic engineering to this point.

 

Cloning for transplant organs. We might be cloning livers and hearts to help people who are in need to a transplant.

 

More public transportation; overcrowing would be to a degree where driving just isn't advisable in some cities.

 

Computers everywhere: Wristwatches, cell phones, etc. Credit cards will likely be worn (like rings, watches). Just pass them under the scanner like a "quick pass" at the gas station.

 

Biometric scanning (Cameras that search crowds to look for wanted persons) are probably vastly improved.

 

More countries will have "the bomb" and flaunt it.

[Bartman]

Re: 22 years from now

 

Originally posted by RavensPath

The tech rule is that computering power doubles every 18 months. So what does that mean for 22 years from now?

Moore's Law. Of course this has been a guideline rather than a law of nature. It is likely that this will continue for the forseeable future, the next 10-15 years. Beyond that there are some real serious issues that will need to be addressed. The main thing is that truely new or original creations are unlikely to occur. And if they do they will happen in some way that we can't currently predict. So look at current tech and decide what would happen if it were made cheeper, better, lighter, smaller, bigger, faster.

 

Communications. There will continue to be 1-3 lines running into every home and/or office in the world. These will be carry far more traffic than they currently do and will become single source points for movies, music, video, games and more. Exact pricing is hard to pin down but the market will demand something which is reasonable for the 'middle class.' From this there will be several access points any of which can be used for work, entertainment, and communication. Think Computer + TV + Stereo + Video Phone + Game Console. Personal PDA/Phone/Whatever elses will be ubiquitous and multi functional. They will also contain some form of replication between the Home/Office network and themselves. So you will never have to be away from your documentsor entertainment.

 

Power. Batteries will continue to get better and devices will run on lower wattages, but nothing extordinary is really likely to take place. Hydrogen cell cars may have replaced gasoline. But that will depend on so many things it is impossible to predict. Fusion will still be a lab question rather than an actual source of power. Although the first designs for commercial generators may be on drafting boards.

[assault]

Thinking back to 1981...

 

Not much change, really.

 

More/better electronics. In particular, mobile phones with lots of neato PDA and other functions will be extremely common, but _not_ universal.

 

Hydrogen and electric cars could be around, but gas guzzlers will still be around too.

 

Cities won't change much in the "developed" world. Aging populations and lower birthrates will be partly offset by immigration, so you expect a higher proportion of the population would be from the groups currently migrating into which ever country you are considering.

 

There would be better biometrics and surveillance techniques, but the spread of these would be partly offset by political considerations.

 

There would be no AIs in the cartoon sense, simply because there is no reason to create them.

 

Most changes would be subtle.

 

Politically: anything could happen. Think about the results of the collapse of Stalinism. We didn't see that coming in 1981.

 

I'd probably go with something along the lines of the US trying to throw its weight around, biting off more than it can chew, and partly retreating into a big sulk. It would still intervene militarily all around the world, but it would be a bit more inclined to operate through proxies.

 

Europe would stumble along, not quite a superpower, playing Good Cop to the USA's Bad Cop.

 

China might implode, become a superpower, or some mix of both!

 

The former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe would have nothing to look forward to but continued humiliation, degradation and poverty.

 

Japan might recover a bit from the 90s slump, but it probably wouldn't quite get it's "miracle" back.

 

Australia would probably miss most of its chances through sheer insular stupidity, and end up as a bit of a has-been.

 

Ditto the UK. Potentially it could also experience further devolution of authority in Scotland and Wales, but it's most unlikely that these would break away completely. Northern Ireland's "peace process" is a mess, but it doesn't seem likely for there to be a return to armed conflict any time soon. Then again, in twenty years time...

 

Latin America: well, there's been a wave of revolts and leftish Presidents being elected in recent years. This is likely to continue. Eventually, it's possible that the US would start supporting military coups and dictatorships again, in order to bring an end to this inappropriate outburst of democratic and nationalistic sentiment. Some kind of direct US military intervention might occur as well, in order to show who's boss. Cuba might be a possible target, but one that's likely to be more than the US can chew.

 

East and South Asia: a mix of economic growth and political turmoil. Limited conflicts between India and Pakistan are certain. Korea could go _very_ nasty. If you want to really mess with the world, China might try it on with Taiwan/the US.

 

Africa: stagnation and death.

 

Western Asia/the Middle East: more of the same. US attempts to "stabilise" the situation come into conflict with local aspirations. The Israel/Palestine struggle continues.

 

In other words, my future history would be very conservative as far as changes go. Funnily enough, I can see a bit of a "rebirth of communism" in non-Stalinist forms, particularly in Latin America, where it would be mixed with nationalism.

 

Social changes wouldn't be particularly profound. This is a world which most of the people on these boards are likely to live to see - and it will be our world.

 

Alan

[Solomon]

European Union is likely to grow in the next 22 years, with more Eastern Europe nations and maybe a few Noth African or Middle East nations joining in. Heck, Britons might even switch to Euro and the Metric System. Aw, naah, this is just too far-fetched!

A somewhat unified, but still NATO-aligned, Euro defense is likely. An unified central European government is highly unlikely. Unless Fiacho gets his way, that is.

 

Broadcast media (TV, conventional radios etc) will concede some ground to narrowcast media.

The informational divide between "rich" and "poor" countries will likely increase.

Governative organizations will likely concede some ground to Non-Governative ones.

A growing military tecnological divide might imply less frontal wars and more terrorist attacks against civilians.

[bloomann]

vissionary speilberg

 

I think that movie Minority Repport might have predicted certain future trends, especially concerning total computerized immersion of the urban landscape (which I personnally find horrifying).

[JeffreyWKramer]

Biotechnology and nanotechnology will both have advanced enough in 22 years that they will start to be major factors in the way things work. By that time, fringe uses - designer-gene-mod for odd skin/hair colors, for example - will probably be well established, and some revoluationary medical procedures - neural replacement therapies, for example - will probably start to be reality. The ability for human beings to change themselves at a cellular and genetic level will call into question lots of old thinking about nature, identity, etc.

 

If you're not already familiar with his books, I'd strongly recommend Greg Bear's SF novels - particularly QUEEN OF ANGELS and SLANT >, for a view of how such technologies will impact society.

[pinecone]

Total disposable and universal computers...almost a given, Biotech become a "mature" technology...a wireless world? maybe, personally I think it is garunteed in the developed world, Politics...by it's very nature its unknowable...how about a world war between China and Japan, including Bioweapons? Who knows where the war on terror will take us as well. The EU will eather be big and influencal Or will fall apart due to nationalism (right now it's France and Germany trying to advance self interest ahead of EU aims,tomorrow?) I personally Hope for true , widespead explotaion of space...but I am a sci-fi fan........

[Kristopher]

Unless there's some kind of radical change, the EU is not going to become a military superpower. They can't even create their small rapid-reaction force as more than an entity on paper.

[assault]

Originally posted by JeffreyWKramer

Biotechnology and nanotechnology will both have advanced enough in 22 years that they will start to be major factors in the way things work. By that time, fringe uses - designer-gene-mod for odd skin/hair colors, for example - will probably be well established, and some revoluationary medical procedures - neural replacement therapies, for example - will probably start to be reality. The ability for human beings to change themselves at a cellular and genetic level will call into question lots of old thinking about nature, identity, etc.

 

In a word: codswallop.

 

Don't confuse science fiction with reality.

 

Alan

[Kristopher]

Originally posted by assault

In a word: codswallop.

 

Don't confuse science fiction with reality.

 

Alan

 

I'm still waiting for my flying cars, robot butler, and vacations on Mars.

[Houston GM]

Science magazines and trendsetters.

 

A lot of what you want to look at are the cutting edge trends, then look at where the technology will reasonably go in 22 years.

 

Computing:

The web will become immersed into hand held technology. Your cellphone/pager/organizer could be programmed to notify you about breaking news stories on the CNN website. Your watch could pick up local weather over the internet.

 

The intranet at your workplace could be programmed to recognize your presence. When a workstation detects your employee badge nearby, it will display your desktop at that terminal.

 

True AI intelligence probably won't be developed. But there will be specialized systems that are capable of learning.

 

Computing technology will continue to get cheaper, and miniturization down to the nanotech level will be commercially available. Broadband will become the rule in 1st world nations, and common in major cities even in the 3rd world.

 

The workplace:

A lot more contract employees will work from home. Other technical jobs will continue to move overseas (into 2nd world nations). These employees will be paid for the work completed, not by the hour or day. This will lead to new unemployment problems in fields that were previously immune.

 

Space:

Space exploration will creep along until it becomes commercially marketable. Orbital launches will move into the private sector, mostly to put communications satellites into orbit.

 

The commercial sector may begin exploration of the asteroid belt, if there is evidence of rare and marketable minerals. This exploration will be unmanned. Most likely it will be handled by the existing space agencies (NASA, ESA, RSA, JSA), but funded by the private sector who will reap the benefits.

 

Climate:

The melting of the icecaps in the Arctic and Greenland will cause a shift in the Gulfstream (starting in about a decade). This will cause a climate shift in NE U.S., eastern Canada, and Western Europe. Average daily temperatures will be 5 degrees cooler in the summer and 15-20 degrees cooler in the winter. This shift will last for a few decades.

 

Elsewhere in the world, global warming will continue. Coastal areas will experience costly flooding.

 

Environment:

Environmental concerns will be largely ignored in the U.S., Eastern Europe, and all 2nd & 3rd world nations. Environmental disasters will leave large stretches of land toxic and uninhabitable. In the U.S. these will be toxic waste dumps that have failed over time ... and a few disasters caused by terrorist acts.

 

There will be passing gestures toward environmentalism (cleaner automobiles) but these will only slow down the problems.

 

Politics:

This is very hard to predict. You could probably justify all sorts of political changes over the next 22 years. Whatever fits your campaign.

 

Terrorism will continue to be a major political factor for the next decade, and perhaps until 2025. I expect terrorist attacks to become more frequent in the U.S., much like they are in Europe.

 

For growing political forces, look to China, India, or a unified Arab world as possibilities.

 

Energy:

"Clean" forms of energy will slowly continue to develop, but most of the world's energy will continue to come from fossil fules. About the only thing that would reasonably change this is a nuclear war in the Middle East ... which isn't beyond the realm of possibility.

 

Japan will lead the world in alternate sources of energy in order to compensate for its own lack of natural resources. Fusion power will still be in the experimental stages, but geothermal and solar power will become practical.

 

Medicine:

We will find cures for most modern diseases including heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer's.

 

The human genome project will identify many genetic defects. Parents will be able to detect these defects early in the pregnancy and abort these babies. Despite an outcry against this, it will become increasingly common practice.

 

Hormone therapy will allow the elderly to avoid physical deterioration. The same therapy will speed recovery from injuries. It will also be capable of allowing anyone to develop a super-physique (a la Arnold), but will not be approved for such use. (There will be a booming black market.)

 

Treatments to prevent memory loss will become available. They will be prescribed to the elderly, and effectively prevent senility. (There will also be a booming black market for these among the younger population. These drugs will have side effects since they will impede the normal forgetting of information that the brain needs to reduce clutter.)

 

There will also be treatments to halt the effects of aging. While these can't keep people young, they will be able to halt the aging effects around the 80 year mark. Combined with the treatments to prevent physical and mental deterioration, people will be able to lead productive lives well past 100.

 

China will aggressively continue pursuing cloning and stem cell research. The U.S. will eventually capitulate and resume research in these areas.

 

By 2025 there will be human clones in their mid to late teens. Many of the early human clones will die from defects, but there will be some survivors.

 

Stem cells will have gone from the research stage to being used in treatments. Much damage from injury and disease will be reparable. The demand for stem cells will be high, leading to an active black market in the 3rd world. Impoverished women in these countries will be paid to abort their babies in order to feed this worldwide demand.

 

The major medical problem will be viruses. As of 2003, there is no cure for any virus (other than the body's own defense mechanisms). While some cures may be developed in the next 2 decades, viruses will mutate faster than these cures can be developed.

 

There are some truly dangerous possibilites for these viruses. (i.e. AIDS mutates and becomes airborne.) Some may also be developed and spread by acts of terrorism (biowarfare).

 

----------------------------------------------

 

Obviously, this is all speculation. But a lot of the medicine is based on today's research. They've begun to isolate the causes of aging (and some people naturally stop aging around 80).

 

They've given lab rats injections which allowed them to develop 4 times the musculature, and these rats remain fit even as they grow "old".

 

Prevention of memory loss is still being tested at the invertebrate level, but researchers know that it's possible.

 

Human cloning is possible today, using the same technology as in vitro fertilization. The first human clones may already have been born....

 

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A shift in the gulfstream is possible in the next 1-3 decades. The next 100 years will also probably see a natural release of CO2 from the ocean floor into the atmosphere. This will rapidly exarcerbate global warming.

 

----------------------------------------------

 

The last 22 years put a PC and the Internet into every home. We saw the collapse of the U.S.S.R. AIDS became an epidemic. The European Union was developed, and the North American Free Trade Agreement was reached shortly afterward. Terrorism struck the U.S. in a very major way.

 

What changed in the last 22 years? When Star Trek came out, people thought that hand held communicators were something of the far future. By the time Next Generation came out, cell phones were already much smaller than the original communicators. Today, cell phones are everyman technology. If you want one, you have one. Many people don't even have a normal phone in their home anymore. They simply use their cell phone.

[levi]

Many great points in this thread...not much for me to add but something came leaping to mind...PC Voice recognition replacing keyboard and mouse

[Kristopher]

Originally posted by levi

Many great points in this thread...not much for me to add but something came leaping to mind...PC Voice recognition replacing keyboard and mouse

 

IMO, it's more a matter of "becomming available for those who want it," not replacement.

 

I type a lot. I work on a computer, I play on computers. My fingers hold out a lot longer than my voice could. I'd rather stick with the keyboard and mouse for at least half of what I do, and I'm sure I'm not alone.

[JeffreyWKramer]

Originally posted by assault

In a word: codswallop.

 

Don't confuse science fiction with reality.

 

I assure you, I don't. Nanotechnology has very real potential that will start to be met in the next couple decades - not yet the sort of stuff we see in wilder SF, but I expect cellular-level surgery and things like that will be real, and so do a lot of people in the medical field - particularly neurology - who are studying this right now.

 

Biotech for personal modification/expression is a very logical extrapolation from current social trends in body modification and from the general tendency for any new technology to first be utilized for people and businesses on the fringes of the mainstream. Sexual minorities were some of the first to greatly utilize IM, chat boards and the general distance-spanning potential of the Internet; the adult film industry has always been among the first to jump on new communications tech (VCR, DVD, the Net).

 

Don't confuse someone who sees things differently than you with someone who doesn't know what he or she is talking about.

[Kristopher]

Of all the things we were supposed to have by now, there's little.

 

Of all the things that seemed impossible, we have quite a few.

 

Predicting the future is sketchy business.

[Starlord]

Originally posted by assault

In a word: codswallop.

 

Don't confuse science fiction with reality.

 

Alan

 

Unnecessarily and incorrectly harsh.

 

http://www.foresight.org/NanoRev/FIFAQ1.html#FAQ8

 

Development in molecular nanotechnology is expected to continue at an accelerating pace, given that funding for this types of research is increasingly available. While estimates range from 15 to 50 years, there is no question that nanotechnology will arrive in the not-too-distant future. Experimental work has already resulted in the production of molecular tweezers, a carbon nanotube transistor, and logic gates. We have even seen researchers create an artificial muscle using nanotubes, which may have medical applications in the nearer term.

 

Naturally occurring diamondoid building blocks, Building metallic circuits with DNA, Carbon Nanotubes, Nanowires, DNA Actuators, Vibrational Spectroscopy, Mechanochemistry, Supramolecular systems, and many forms of nanomedicine are deep into the theoretical stages.

[Starlord]

I also seem to remember something from the 'official' Champions timeline saying that the 'age of superheroes' ends by 2020 or so. Not that Ravenspath needs to abide by that though.

[RavensPath]

All I can say is that Hero Fans are the best fans in the world. All the ideas that have been posted are wonderful!

 

Houston GM- I thank you heartily for your very indepth post.

 

If anyone has any more ideas please keep posting!

 

Thank you again!

 

Matthew

[McCoy]

Politics: Alternative fuels will grow as a percentage of energy produced, but fossil fule use will remain level. The Islamic countries will form a looser federation than the EU, but will have more cooperation between themselves than today. Iraq will still be occupied by the United States.

 

Mexico and all of Canada except Quebec will be annexed (by mutual agreement) to the United States. (This may take longer than 22 years.) The United States remains the only military Superpower. Alcohol, tobacco, marajuana and cafeine will be legal, but use in public disapproved. American life will continue to be schitzophrenic, ultra-conservative and ultra-liberal aspects side by side. Equality and tolerance will be the rule, with less discrimination based on race, ethnicity, gender, or sexual orientation than today. The largest ethnic minority will be "multiracial," those who do not identify as White or Black.

 

EU will grow, and The Troubles in Northern Ireland will finally be put behind them.

 

China will be in transition, embodying the worst aspects of both Comunisium and Capitalism. Some bio-tech research that the rest of the planet considers ethically questionable will be carried out there.

 

South America and Africa will remain Balkinized, but will be taking the first steps toward EU-type unions.

[lemming]

Originally posted by Kristopher

IMO, it's more a matter of "becomming available for those who want it," not replacement.

 

I type a lot. I work on a computer, I play on computers. My fingers hold out a lot longer than my voice could. I'd rather stick with the keyboard and mouse for at least half of what I do, and I'm sure I'm not alone.

Yep. I played with a system back in 1992. It was a bit clunky, but even with improvements I would still prefer mouse & keyboard. Actually I'm happy with just keyboard being a command line type of guy.

[Bartman]

Re: Re: 22 years from now

 

Originally posted by Bartman

Power. Batteries will continue to get better and devices will run on lower wattages, but nothing extordinary is really likely to take place.

 

Ooops looks like I spoke too soon. Atomic Batteries.

Imagine running a laptop for years without a recharge on a battery about a 1 cm^3 in size.

[FenrisUlf]

European Politics

 

My view? I can't say much about the sciences, considering the way they change so rapidly, but I will hazard a guess here and there at politics.

 

At least one major full-honk fascist regime in Europe. Probably France or Russia, but maybe Germany or one of the less usual suspects. There'll also be a somewhat 'politically respectable' fascist outfit in America (washover from Europe), so long as they remember to stick the swastika armbands and Hitler salutes in the basement. There will also be a return of 'respectable' and public anti-Semitism. (Think I'm full of it? Go look at Goodrick-Clarke's _Black Sun_ for more.)

 

Everyone will have forgotten the currently trendy enviromental scare campaigns and will be pushing something as the 'greatest threat to humanity' that no one would even look twice at now.

 

Really all I"ve got right now.