2018 Baseball Thread (MLB and whatever)

[unclevlad]

4 hours ago, Badger said:

 

Edit: Also, I think the analytical people are guilty of "assuming the would be bunter will get automatically get a hit"  (at least at a much higher percentage than they should).  Hitting away, wasn't necessarily a bad strategy either,  but double plays and strikeouts do hurt, despite the denial of such (well they do hate DPs, but Ks matter whether they choose to believe or not)

 

 

Nope.  Not in the broad analysis.  For average number of runs scored in an inning...that might be limited to the first 2 in the inning getting on.  Cuz if not, things get a little screwy.  Single walk, HR, single, walk...recreates 1st and 2nd, none out.  But the runs for the inning are skewed.  Now, for the % chance of scoring a run...THAT you can take any time the given situation arises.  That's a simple Yes or No.  It's not saying the non-bunter is getting a hit, it does allow for the fact that he might hit into a double play.  

 

An aspect about the Belanger point...there are virtually no Belangers out there any more.  Maybe backup catchers, but .220 slap hitters simply don't make it to majors.  There's no such thing as a defensive position, either, the way there used to be.  VERY debatable if an Ozzie or Belanger would actually stick on a major league roster;  that's how much defense has been devalued and offense overvalued.  Heck, look how long Mark Reynolds has stuck around, despite a very poor average, striking out in over 1/3 of his ABs, and being a notably below average defensive player.  He can hit the ball out...nuff said.

[Badger]

2 hours ago, unclevlad said:

 

Nope.  Not in the broad analysis.  For average number of runs scored in an inning...that might be limited to the first 2 in the inning getting on.  Cuz if not, things get a little screwy.  Single walk, HR, single, walk...recreates 1st and 2nd, none out.  But the runs for the inning are skewed.  Now, for the % chance of scoring a run...THAT you can take any time the given situation arises.  That's a simple Yes or No.  It's not saying the non-bunter is getting a hit, it does allow for the fact that he might hit into a double play.  

 

An aspect about the Belanger point...there are virtually no Belangers out there any more.  Maybe backup catchers, but .220 slap hitters simply don't make it to majors.  There's no such thing as a defensive position, either, the way there used to be.  VERY debatable if an Ozzie or Belanger would actually stick on a major league roster;  that's how much defense has been devalued and offense overvalued.  Heck, look how long Mark Reynolds has stuck around, despite a very poor average, striking out in over 1/3 of his ABs, and being a notably below average defensive player.  He can hit the ball out...nuff said.

 

Yeah, a perfect example of Belanger nowadays, would be the longtime PIrates prospect, South African Gift Ngoepe.  Didn't make the majors till last year at age 26-27, and only briefly.  Has a great defensive rep, little offense.  Jhonny Peralta stuck around as a SS for year despite having the range of an amoeba, but he could hit. (peralta would have been an excellent 3B, if he had been born 20 years earlier.  Good glove, limited range.  But, yesterday's 3B, the manager is ok with at SS).  But, I do understand what you are saying,  I guess should say the Analytics-minded have a tendency to look at baseball situations too much in a vacuum, without looking at situation in context.

 

Note: I think for a Belanger to make it now, the shift would have to be devalued, which would require more high-average slap hitters. 

 

Also, the "belanger of today", ANdrelton Simmons has been considered the "hardest to strike out".  In 10 ABS, he'll strike out 1+ times.  Pitiful, for that to be a "hardest to strike out".

[Badger]

I will say I do like analytics, recently starting to revamp the ideas of a bullpen.  ANd taking leverage into it more.  (though really returning it more to pre-LaRussa of the Fireman/Stopper relief ace, rather than the CLoser as relief ace*)

 

*Course, it never will likely go back to the Goose Gossage, Rollie Fingers, and others were used in the 1970s (if only for not returning it to the multiple inning appearance, also I doubt the typical manager is ever going to embrace it fully, putting in the relief ace when needed, but more of a closer who occasionally comes in earlier when the manager really needs the win.  But, if the best relievers start pitching more important situations more often, that is a good sign)

[Pariah]

So, it's to be Dodgers-Red Sox in the World Series after all.

 

Wake me up when pitchers and catchers report.

[Armory]

On 10/21/2018 at 9:31 AM, Pariah said:

So, it's to be Dodgers-Red Sox in the World Series after all.

 

Wake me up when pitchers and catchers report.

 

That's kinda how I feel.  I was done rooting for somebody when the Astros got bumped.  I'm still going to watch the games because it's the World Series dammit and it's a long cold winter until Spring Training.  I guess I'll be rooting for good baseball.

[unclevlad]

2 hours ago, Armory said:

 

That's kinda how I feel.  I was done rooting for somebody when the Astros got bumped.  I'm still going to watch the games because it's the World Series dammit and it's a long cold winter until Spring Training.  I guess I'll be rooting for good baseball.

 

Define "good baseball."
 

Cuz it's mostly gonna be wait for pitchers to make mistakes, then MASH the ball.  And I fully expect that strikeouts will continue to outnumber hits.  Tedious, slow games with pitchers slowing games down to a crawl.

[Badger]

I pull for the Dodgers, because Red Sox.  The Red Sox will win because I cant have anything nice.

[Badger]

And the Dodgers Game 7 MVP was Craig Counsel.  I haven't seen a manager outthink himself so consistently in the postseason since the glory days of Bobby Cox.

[Badger]

Well, perfect example of my "luck".

 

Watch the game for awhile nobody scores.  I watch something else for a bit come back Dodgers lead 4-0 (good).  As soon as I come back, Boston hits 3-run HR.

[unclevlad]

Whereas I'd had the TV on ESPN for the afternoon and forgot to switch until the 5th.

 

The ultimate terror??  MORE extra ininings...cuz there's another game tomorrow.  That'll ratchet the pressure on Sale and Kershaw to go deep, should this one go 12+ again....

[unclevlad]

Top of the 9th.  Still watching, Badger?

[Badger]

Nah, I saw I was a bad luck piece, when the game became tied at 4.

[Christopher R Taylor]

God love the dodgers, but they just are outclassed.  They have a lot of heart but they don't have the team.  Maybe with Seager in the mix but they aren't gonna make it.

[unclevlad]

If they had Seager, they don't have Machado.  From a talent perspective?  Probably mostly a wash.  I suspect Seager'd be the better choice for the locker room, especially given the longer tenure with the team, but I don't really think it's their big problem.  What I think it comes down to is, the Dodger hitters can bash, but they have more holes too.  

[Badger]

Unless they decided to have made Seager a 2B to get Machado (which wouldn't make sense).  It would help them get Kike "The Automatic Postseason Out" Hernandez out of the lineup.  Though with their mysterious love of him, they'd probably someone more productive out instead.

 

Note: I do like Hernandez versatility, and no question valuable to get them here, but right now he is clearly in over his head.

[Christopher R Taylor]

What I think it comes down to is, the Dodger hitters can bash, but they have more holes too.  

 

Yeah that's their biggest problem: they aren't as good hitters as the Red Sox. Better starting pitching, I'd say, but not by a lot.  No Machado probably is better overall for the team chemistry and that means better perforance overall.  They already have one arrogant weirdo with Puig, two is too many on a team.

 

Honestly I'm surprised Machado hasn't been thrown out of a game yet with his presuming calls and antics with every strike.

[Badger]

Well the Obnoxious Richter Scale just had registered 11.5 in Boston.  Damn, I hate Red Sox Nation*.

 

*Back in 2004, win the first WC in 86 years, and they out-obnoxious the Yank fans since.

 

Note: It almost makes me want to like Golden St, just so one trophy stays out of Massachusetts.  Though, ironically the Celtics are the only team in the state I sort of like (more so during the Bird years)

 

 

[Pariah]

Congratulations to the Red Sox, or whatever.

 

Wake me for spring training.

[Christopher R Taylor]

Yep, grats to the REd Sox, but I wish they'd have played out all 7 games.  Now we gotta wait til March

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, Christopher R Taylor said:

Yep, grats to the REd Sox, but I wish they'd have played out all 7 games.  Now we gotta wait til March

 

More like mid-June.

 

Sorry, but the bloody season is tooooooo freaking long for me to get interested much before then.  Yeah, opening week is cool, but after that...?  Largely true of the NBA season too, which runs almost the same length.  

[Badger]

Yeah, I have weeks where I fade out, during the season, which probably keeps me going.  (my nosedive of interest in the NFL also helped)

[death tribble]

I was not even aware that the World Series was on. Just saw the page on the BBC saying that the Red Sox had won.

[Christopher R Taylor]

I'm fine with the length of the regular season but I'd also be fine if they cut it back to 154 games again.

[Cygnia]

 

Boston Red Sox Are Trolling Fans Who Sent Negative Tweets On Opening Day

 

[Badger]

Boston gotta troll.  It's what they do.  

 

 

DT's nation can tell us about that.