The 2020 Baseball Thread

[slikmar]

A lot of articles on how both sides are really missing the point about needing to get baseball back on the field. Fans, especially now, don't want to hear about billionaires arguing with millionaires over a few hundred thousand dollars, but the MLBPA is trying to establish a hardline basis for the next CBA since they feel, and maybe so, they got hosed in the last one and the Owners are trying to keep things status quo.

[Michael Hopcroft]

They did, in fact, get hosed. But the problem is that this makes a 2020 season, even a massively shoerter one, increasingly unlikely. The Commissioner has even backed down from his pledge that "100%" the season will happen.

 

The situation looks very grim. And the owners have all the bargaining power right now. And it looks like they are convinced that cutting off baseball is going to turn the fans against the players and for them.

[unclevlad]

On 6/17/2020 at 10:59 AM, Pariah said:

Eh, nothing a steroid-fueled home run record chase in 2022 won't fix.

 

It worked the last time.

 

But home runs isn't action, per se.  And the biggest issue is lack of action.  Strikeout, walk, or home run are the target outcomes for each side...which is BORING.  

 

I think an issue that all the big US sports will have, is that people will develop alternate spending.  Football in particular, with the seat license on top of the ticket charge?  Some will go, gee, I really can do a lot with this extra cash.  It could well be that others will step up, but for many teams, those fees are extremely expensive.

 

As a sidelight, I wonder how DFS will come back.

[Cancer]

Bring back the deadball era!  Sacrifice bunts, hit & run, stolen bases!  Oh, and spitballs!!

[Michael Hopcroft]

44 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

As a sidelight, I wonder how DFS will come back.

Daily Fantasy Sports? I'm rather hoping it doesn't. It's a sports book by another name  that lets its suckers customers believe it is a game of skill, when they are really betting against the house. The "game" survives and thrives on the difference between what the winners win and what the losers lose. It will always be that way, just as in any other form of organized gambling.

[slikmar]

3 hours ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

They did, in fact, get hosed. But the problem is that this makes a 2020 season, even a massively shoerter one, increasingly unlikely. The Commissioner has even backed down from his pledge that "100%" the season will happen.

 

The situation looks very grim. And the owners have all the bargaining power right now. And it looks like they are convinced that cutting off baseball is going to turn the fans against the players and for them.

Part of the problem is that teams are not really owned by families anymore who love the game. I really think its not so much they think fans will side with them against players but that owners don't care how fans feel about the owners, as long as they aren't siding with the players. To them its a business, and if baseball

3 hours ago, unclevlad said:

 

But home runs isn't action, per se.  And the biggest issue is lack of action.  Strikeout, walk, or home run are the target outcomes for each side...which is BORING.  

 

I think an issue that all the big US sports will have, is that people will develop alternate spending.  Football in particular, with the seat license on top of the ticket charge?  Some will go, gee, I really can do a lot with this extra cash.  It could well be that others will step up, but for many teams, those fees are extremely expensive.

 

As a sidelight, I wonder how DFS will come back.

Big problem now is that I think you will find that money isn't really being made at the stadium (I say that knowing how much it costs) but in the TV contracts and pay per view stuff (nfl redzone etc). Also the internet broadcasting. So as much as there are complaints about no fans in the stadiums, I don't think it is really about that.

[Pariah]

9 minutes ago, slikmar said:

Big problem now is that I think you will find that money isn't really being made at the stadium (I say that knowing how much it costs) but in the TV contracts and pay per view stuff (nfl redzone etc). Also the internet broadcasting. So as much as there are complaints about no fans in the stadiums, I don't think it is really about that.

 

College bowl season is proof positive of this. Outside of 10 or 12 big-name bowl games, you're hard-pressed to find a stadium at even half capacity during college bowl season. Nonetheless, not only do they keep playing these games, they keep adding more. Which tells me that the money is not, in fact, coming from butts in seats.

[unclevlad]

6 minutes ago, slikmar said:

Part of the problem is that teams are not really owned by families anymore who love the game. I really think its not so much they think fans will side with them against players but that owners don't care how fans feel about the owners, as long as they aren't siding with the players. To them its a business, and if baseball

Big problem now is that I think you will find that money isn't really being made at the stadium (I say that knowing how much it costs) but in the TV contracts and pay per view stuff (nfl redzone etc). Also the internet broadcasting. So as much as there are complaints about no fans in the stadiums, I don't think it is really about that.

 

Actually, I remember looking at that.  Gate revenue is MUCH larger than you might think, altho it'll vary by team.  The Dodgers get more than anyone else...because they own the stadium (and are usually in the top 3 in attendance).  So every dime from parking, and all the concessions rights, THEN the ticket price...those all flow straight to them.  

I forget the exact number but IIRC it's like 1/3 of their revenue.  Remember that we're talking 2 million or so attending.  According to SeatGeek, the average ticket price is $53...so that's over $100M in revenue.  BEFORE any of the ancillary revenue streams, like concessions.  And Pariah, no, it's not like the junk bowls that really are empty.  According to Baseball Reference, 5 teams drew 3M+;  7 more were in the 2.5-3M range.  6 drew 2-2.5M.  6 more were in the 1.6-1.8M range.  The bottom 3...Miami, Tampa Bay, Baltimore.  AWFUL teams again....Miami and TB have horrible, horrible stadiums to boot.  A Wednesday matinee game in April in TB does very much look like the New Mexico Bowl.  

 

I don't know if that stated average is purely for regular seats...I suspect that, because it's a ticket broker, it is.  So on top of that, don't forget the luxury box income, which generally goes straight to the clubs.  Found prices for Yankees suites...22 tickets, asking $15K.  So this might be another, I dunno, 10-15 mill.

[Michael Hopcroft]

The owners do stand to lose money on the 2020 season regardless. I don't see any of the teams rerally making a profit as long as distancing and capacity limits are in place  -- and it'll be at least the end of 2020 before those are likely to end. Licensing and merchandising money should still be coming in, but opening every night to an empty stadium is bound to damage the bottom line significantly.

[Badger]

4 hours ago, Cancer said:

Bring back the deadball era!  Sacrifice bunts, hit & run, stolen bases!  Oh, and spitballs!!

Works for me. I like most of that stuff

[Pariah]

12 hours ago, Cancer said:

Bring back the deadball era!  Sacrifice bunts, hit & run, stolen bases!  Oh, and spitballs!!

 

And while we're at it, let's go back to playing outdoors on grass fields without a designated hitter.

[Badger]

8 hours ago, Pariah said:

 

And while we're at it, let's go back to playing outdoors on grass fields without a designated hitter.

Well only Toronto and Tampa bay fail on the grass part. Pitchers will have to hit better .120 on average before I stop preferring the DH.

 

Since WW2  .200 hitting pitching staff is a rarity. For that matter outside the hard hitting 1930s, uncommon since the 1890s.

[Badger]

Also on the pitcher hitting front.

 

Chris Davis awful season recently. It was the 5th worst batting average all time for title qualifiers. Take away 1880s 2Bman it was 2nd to Adam Dunn in 2011.

 

Except if he was a pitcher that year he would have to 10 if I remember.

 

 

 

 

[Michael Hopcroft]

As a sportsgamer, I have been in leagues where teams from multiple eras meet during the course of the season. Deadball teams are difficult to play against if you have a team from a more modern era. It's like you have to adopt an entirely different mindset on pitching and defense. I am not used to playing my infield in on the grass on a routine basis. Part of the problem might be that players arfe rated more arbitrarily owing to a lack of objective data.

 

I still think that when building a team in a sim, consistency is a key. I cannot describe how frustrating it is when a hitter who has been otherwise dependable goes on a slump and there is nothing I can do about it other than send him out there and hope the dice are friendly. That was what undid me in my playoff series last week in the King of Diamonds season.

 

One thing people have been speculating about is whether the small-to-medium sportsgame publishers can survive a year when NONE of the Big Four American Sports have viable seasons on which to build data for ratings and cards. If baseball has a 50-game season it'll be difficult to make representative cards, and if there is no season at all that, of course, means no card set at all.

[slikmar]

48 minutes ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

I still think that when building a team in a sim, consistency is a key. I cannot describe how frustrating it is when a hitter who has been otherwise dependable goes on a slump and there is nothing I can do about it other than send him out there and hope the dice are friendly. That was what undid me in my playoff series last week in the King of Diamonds season.

MLB did their tournament thing earlier. The 2002 Angel team was bounced, and I do mean bounced by the 2011(?) rangers. Most annoying thing to me, the first 3 starters for Texas, meaning at least one game in Arlington, held the Angels to a combined 4 runs in 3 games. Given that in 2002, the Angels made the Yankee pitching staff of Clemens, David Wells, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina look old, something didnt smell right to me. That Angel team was entirely built on offense and rally hitting. And as much respect as I had for CJ Wilson, Derek Holland and Colby Lewis, I find it hard to believe they could do what no other pitching seemed able too. I actually would have been fine if Angels had lost that by an average of 7-5 games or something.

[unclevlad]

15 hours ago, Badger said:

Also on the pitcher hitting front.

 

Chris Davis awful season recently. It was the 5th worst batting average all time for title qualifiers. Take away 1880s 2Bman it was 2nd to Adam Dunn in 2011.

 

Except if he was a pitcher that year he would have to 10 if I remember.

 

 

It would've been good years for a pitcher, prorating.  Even in 2018...he hit .168. 

 

Whether we like it or not, the DH isn't going away.  The mindset in baseball, more than I think any other sport, prohibits it.  Hitters are taught to groove their fastball swing.  The result?  Home run or strikeout.  They're so rigid, so specialized, that shifts work because they can't NOT pull the ball, so often.  The same thing applies to pitching.  You have to be perfect, perfect, perfect, throw hard, harder, hardest.  How many curve ball types still exist...versus flame throwers, especially?  And to get there?  You focus on the pitching side...and the value there is too high to allow even the good hitters to waste their time on that side.  (Not to mention risk injury.)  Good article here:

 

https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-state-of-pitchers-hitting/

 

points out issues like minor league pitchers just don't hit.

Sure, there are isolated examples of pitchers that can hit, but they're sparse.  And a pitcher who's a below-average hitter (even for a pitcher)...no one cares, no one's ever really cared IMO.  Even before the DH.  Sandy Koufax hit .064 in '63, and .076 in '66...but all he did was win the Cy Young both years, win MVP once and be runner-up the other, start 81 games, complete 47, win 52, with 16 shutouts.  WHO CARES ABOUT THE HITTING?   

I'd also rather have the pitcher focus on defense.  A pitcher who's solid defensively helps in the important, higher-leverage situations...runners on 2nd and 3rd, pitcher gonna hit?  He's gonna get yanked a lot of the time anyway.

 

What I think is asinine is the massive distortion due to one league using the DH, the other not using it.

[Badger]

Well with bad hitting pitchers I always refer to 1960s Dean Chance

 

Career .065 hitter and he struck out around 2/3 of the time. Worst ever with over 400 abs. Can't remember if he ever won a cy. But he was an ace for several years.

[Badger]

I think the biggest hurdle are 13 member pitching staffs.

 

Little available for Bench depth. With 3 or 4 bench spots. One is a catcher's. Another is likely a super sub type who is there to cover as many positions as possible not for hitting as much. Little left for pinch hits and platoons

[Pariah]

If there is baseball this year--and I'm beginning to think that there won't be--it'll be with a DH in both leagues. I fully expect that the next CBA will incorporate the DH in both leagues as well. The days of National League pitchers being expected to hit are, for good or for ill, over as far as I can tell.

 

Thus the last real difference between the American League and National League passes unlamented into history.

[Michael Hopcroft]

16 hours ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

One thing people have been speculating about is whether the small-to-medium sportsgame publishers can survive a year when NONE of the Big Four American Sports have viable seasons on which to build data for ratings and cards. If baseball has a 50-game season it'll be difficult to make representative cards, and if there is no season at all that, of course, means no card set at all.

 

15 hours ago, slikmar said:

MLB did their tournament thing earlier. The 2002 Angel team was bounced, and I do mean bounced by the 2011(?) rangers. Most annoying thing to me, the first 3 starters for Texas, meaning at least one game in Arlington, held the Angels to a combined 4 runs in 3 games. Given that in 2002, the Angels made the Yankee pitching staff of Clemens, David Wells, Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina look old, something didnt smell right to me. That Angel team was entirely built on offense and rally hitting. And as much respect as I had for CJ Wilson, Derek Holland and Colby Lewis, I find it hard to believe they could do what no other pitching seemed able too. I actually would have been fine if Angels had lost that by an average of 7-5 games or something.

Blaming the dice always works for me.  Does MLB say how they got their results? Do they have their own, private game that they can use? Who makes the many small decisions that go into a baseball game?

[unclevlad]

6 hours ago, Badger said:

I think the biggest hurdle are 13 member pitching staffs.

 

Little available for Bench depth. With 3 or 4 bench spots. One is a catcher's. Another is likely a super sub type who is there to cover as many positions as possible not for hitting as much. Little left for pinch hits and platoons

 

I agree with this.  FAR too many pitchers on rosters due to how pens get used now.  Management is heavily focused on fear, and matchups in the moment...even if the immediate action has negative longer-term expectations.  (Here, longer-term could be 2 innings later, or 2 months.  Torey Lovullo has taken heat for burning out the D'Backs' bullpen through early/mid season overuse, leading to late slides.)

 

And pitching changes just kill flow, by definition.  Mosey out to the mound...talk...talk...take the ball.  OK now we signal.  Pen guy moseys in from the outfield for 2 minutes, spends another minute prepping the mound.  NOW he starts his warmups.  GAHHH.  The only thing worse is the *ridiculous* amount of time some pitchers and hitters take, even with no one on.  

[slikmar]

6 hours ago, Michael Hopcroft said:

 

Blaming the dice always works for me.  Does MLB say how they got their results? Do they have their own, private game that they can use? Who makes the many small decisions that go into a baseball game?

no idea. I am sure that those 3 pitchers, in my case, just happened to have great stats against those hitters.

[Badger]

Yeah annoying. But same time I don't like putting limitations on pitching changes. Hate the 3 better minimum  ideA

 

Though the pitch to one batter thing isn't that common. Teams average doing it about once every 4 games. And most probably are done in 7 or 8 inning, 1 or 2 ru  game. But everyone goes to that one time it was done with a 3 ru  lead in the 6th

[Michael Hopcroft]

The pitcher is at a significant advantage when throwing to a batter who hits at that same side. Right-handed pitchers do well against righties, and lefties against lefties. If you can;t get consistent oputs against both right and left sides, then you won't last very long in the majors.

 

To slikmar's question: game design in s[ports sims is about managing probability. Roll some dice (or turn a card, or run a randomizer), check it against your model of player/team performance, then you have your play result. That is the basis of the game. The game blends the skill element of choosing the best players or play in a situation with the pure blind chance that makes great hitters strike out against mediocre pitchers because something didn't quite go right.l A sports event is full of pure, blind chance even with all the metrics you want to plug in.

 

Sportsgames teach me that there are some things I cannot control, no matter how hard I try, and that while things will often go askew sometimes they will turn out all right if you put your best foot forward. In the close to forty years I have played sportsgames, I have only won two championships. I cherish the memory of both of them.

 

 

[unclevlad]

46 minutes ago, Badger said:

Yeah annoying. But same time I don't like putting limitations on pitching changes. Hate the 3 better minimum  ideA

 

Though the pitch to one batter thing isn't that common. Teams average doing it about once every 4 games. And most probably are done in 7 or 8 inning, 1 or 2 ru  game. But everyone goes to that one time it was done with a 3 ru  lead in the 6th

 

Yeah, it probably won't change things that much.  
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28124981/how-mlb-new-three-batter-minimum-rule-impact-game

And it's pointed out...about 30% of these were during September callups/expanded rosters.  So it's not that meaningful.

I know that the pitcher's average pace is a big factor.  The game with a couple fast-working pitchers still moves OK...despite the tendency to have so few base runners, or anything going on.  With slow workers, it DRAAAAGGGGS.