The 2020 Baseball Thread

[Badger]

1 hour ago, Christopher R Taylor said:

I fear baseball is doomed, at least as any major sport in America

Probably still 3 or levels for development. Minor leagues might become more independent team than farm possibly

[unclevlad]

3 hours ago, Christopher R Taylor said:

I fear baseball is doomed, at least as any major sport in America

 

I guess that depends on what you mean.  I don't see it disappearing.  I *do* see it slipping down a peg or two, say to MLS levels where they'll get some crumbs from the networks, but not that much more.

[Badger]

13 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

 

I guess that depends on what you mean.  I don't see it disappearing.  I *do* see it slipping down a peg or two, say to MLS levels where they'll get some crumbs from the networks, but not that much more.

Well if it is ESPN, they already slipped that far.

 

Then again, I don't watch ESPN anymore

[Pariah]

Didn't Major League Baseball sign a $1 billion TV deal just a few weeks ago?

[unclevlad]

Mmmm...they did.  Might bite Turner.  And MLB because that fuels the players’ ire and makes them more stubborn.

 

ESPN still has quite a few games during the week, or at least they did last year.  Plus Sunday Night, where they pay through the nose for exclusivity.  What they gutted was Baseball Tonight...along with a LOT of their journalistic side, IMO, in the last 3-4 years.  Yeah, they are not what they were;  now they feel like a Disney promo arm.

 

Well, tho, to be honest...I might have watched an hour of ESPN, in total, since the sports world cratered...call it late March.  No point, really.  
 

[slikmar]

This is one of those understandable but would suck things: https://www.mlb.com/angels/news/mike-trout-unsure-if-he-ll-play-in-2020

 

[Badger]

I'm pretty much going to watch because I like baseball.  But, I really don't care about the season really. The standings dont matter. I will refuse to watch extra innings due to the stupid baserunner rule. Which I got to see it in action twice last WBC. My impression, 2 exciting games turned anti climactic and somewhat ruined. Better the Japanese rule of tie after 12. (Which given frequency of games lasting that long will happen to each times twice.....maybe, this year, but it is in 1 to 2 percent level.

 

I like the idea of an nl sh. Time has come pitchers can't hit even a little benches are so short the ph specialist is pretty much dead, too. It died with Lenny Harris with maybe a brief revival with Matt Stairs

[unclevlad]

On 7/5/2020 at 8:56 PM, slikmar said:

This is one of those understandable but would suck things: https://www.mlb.com/angels/news/mike-trout-unsure-if-he-ll-play-in-2020

 

 

Yeah, pretty much.

Any top talent would, IMO, be foolish to play.  Whatever passes for a "season" will be a joke.  I would love to see survey results based on something like this...

1.  On a scale of 1 to 5 (5 being diehard, watch every game possible), how would you describe your level of fandom towards MLB?

2.  On a scale of 1 to 5, 1 == strongly disagree, 5 == strongly agree...do you think any results from this season are empty?

3.  Same scale as 2:  do you think the results from this season should be considered official?

 

My feeling going in...2 would be heavily weighted to agreement.  3 is something that just popped into my head...and it'd be controversial as heck, sure, but it's not crazy, IMO.  Too much of this will basically be spring training ball, there will be vets who pass, and ya gotta figure the pitching staffs will be churning through a LOT of lesser players.

[Pariah]

#1: 2, maybe 1.5. Baseball is so much better to watch in person, although that's officially not an option here this summer.

 

#2: 2. If someone bats .400 this season, it won't mean as much. It could happen.

 

#3: 5. If they play--IF--it counts.

[slikmar]

1. 3-4 because I will watch ever Angel game. I don't watch many other ones in regular seasons.

2. 4 - go look at any season's stats as of june 1st, thats what we are looking at. Teams/Players known for slow starts will truly be in trouble.

3. 2 - playoff results, not really. Any individual climb up a leaderboard should count but not one those that would be considered seasonal type achievements (ie 400 hitter, though given the need to have 600(?) at bats etc, not sure anyone would count them).

 

Have another good question for you all - Should contracts be extended basically a year or does this season count as 1 year on the contract. All those 1 year contract guys just got paid for doing nothing, especially if they decide not to play (Julio Tehran isn't in Angel camp and signed 1 year deal).

[unclevlad]

2 hours ago, slikmar said:

Have another good question for you all - Should contracts be extended basically a year or does this season count as 1 year on the contract. All those 1 year contract guys just got paid for doing nothing, especially if they decide not to play (Julio Tehran isn't in Angel camp and signed 1 year deal).

 

That's between MLB and the PA.  Back in March, they agreed that all players would receive full service time...which is huge for the young players, as it means they're aging out from their rookie contracts.  The players on one-year deals will probably all become free agents.  Demand for them might be an interesting spectator sport.  The older guys...they're a year older and that's a lotta rust to take off.  It's an early look at Life After Baseball for the players, too.

[unclevlad]

So now the Cards have 7 players and 6 staff testing positive...2nd team with a large outbreak.  MLB hasn't said anything yet, other than postponing the Cards-Tigers series, but I gotta think this is the second strike...one more, and that's it.  Season's over.

[Pariah]

If Major League Baseball does end up canceling the season--and frankly, at this point I don't see how that doesn't happen eventually--I wonder what happens to the NFL and college football. If Major League Baseball can't make this work in an essentially non-contact sport, how do they keep every player in college football or the NFL from contracting this thing eventually?

[archer]

1 hour ago, Pariah said:

If Major League Baseball does end up canceling the season--and frankly, at this point I don't see how that doesn't happen eventually--I wonder what happens to the NFL and college football. If Major League Baseball can't make this work in an essentially non-contact sport, how do they keep every player in college football or the NFL from contracting this thing eventually?

 

You could in theory put a college football team all in one dorm under 24 hour curfew and require them to take their classes remotely. Colleges are pretty open-ended in what they can require of their sports players if the player wants to remain on the team. The risk of infection would be from players living their normal lives much more than on-the-field contact with players from the other teams.

 

NFL is another matter entirely. The teams can't even effectively control the players' on the field behavior when the player is on the clock, much less dictate terms on what the players can do during their time off.

 

But regardless, I think college and professional sports both would be better off not having seasons.

[Pariah]

As much as I hate to agree with that last sentence, I'm afraid you're right.

[unclevlad]

3 hours ago, Pariah said:

If Major League Baseball does end up canceling the season--and frankly, at this point I don't see how that doesn't happen eventually--I wonder what happens to the NFL and college football. If Major League Baseball can't make this work in an essentially non-contact sport, how do they keep every player in college football or the NFL from contracting this thing eventually?

 

The issue isn't contact, so far as I know, it's maintaining isolation, and people doing what they're *supposed* to be doing.  The NHL and NBA are heavily isolating by having the teams gathered;  the NBA, everyone's in Florida, the NHL has them in Toronto and Edmonton.  MLB didn't do that...they're arguing party size.  Perhaps so;  certainly the team is larger but not THAT much larger than an NHL team, which is 20.  MLB was probably going, oh, I can't give up my 7 different coaches (that's apparently a limit) and who knows how many trainers.  And front office people and scouts and........

 

And MLB was also saying that it was going to be for much longer...which is true.

 

The last 2 points...the bigger the size of the traveling party, the length of the season making team-level isolation completely impractical...are huge for the NFL.  MORE players, MORE coaches (you wanna see something RIDICULOUS?  Read this:

 

https://www.headcoachranking.com/inside-numbers-nfl-coaching-staffs/

 

HUGE number of training staff and equipment people.  Business Insider indicates the average size of an NFL traveling party is...180 (!!!) people.  Breakdown here:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2666013-planes-trains-and-automobiles-truths-about-traveling-in-the-nfl

 

Obviously, that makes random exposures that much more frequent.  So I have to think it's a HUGE concern for the NFL, even if they're just blithely proceeding for now.

 

College football...there's a massive conflict of interest, if the colleges don't want to push the notion that their players are students first.  If on-campus students are greatly restricted and online is promoted, then how can you justify having the players on campus full-time?  Given that there's about 100-odd players AND probably another 100-150 support staff...come on.  Plus, it's college students, not exactly known to be the most responsible group.

 

Buster Olney predicted, back early in July IIRC, that there was a 5% chance that MLB would restart...but a 0% chance it would manage to play through the season.  I'd give the NFL that 5% chance to start the season, and 0% chance of completing it.  I don't give college football ANY chance of playing beyond a week or two...and even that only because they're infinitely stubborn.  And it won't be all teams.  I think many won't play at all.

[unclevlad]

2 hours ago, archer said:

 

You could in theory put a college football team all in one dorm under 24 hour curfew and require them to take their classes remotely. Colleges are pretty open-ended in what they can require of their sports players if the player wants to remain on the team. The risk of infection would be from players living their normal lives much more than on-the-field contact with players from the other teams.

 

 

So, are you isolating the student trainers, the tutors, the managers, the media assistants?  

 

Can they see their girlfriends?  WORSE, their wives and kids?  What about the coaches, who frequently do have families?

 

That suggests even "in theory" is wildly implausible for college football.  For basketball...only implausible.  I suspect they're not going to even try for most other sports.

[slikmar]

from what I have seen, most of the divisions in college football have already started cancelling seasons.

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, slikmar said:

from what I have seen, most of the divisions in college football have already started cancelling seasons.

 

Hadn't been paying attention.  But yeah, several FCS and non-football Div I conferences are cancelling all fall sports.  

 

I was discussing, fundamentally, the Power 5 conferences...SEC, the Bigs, Pac 12, ACC.  Many of them are pro sports franchises in either football or basketball, sometimes both.  They're the ones with huge TV contracts, with 10s of millions in donations and merchandising...with their brands.  That's where the pressure to put out product rivals the pressure on the pro leagues.  VERY interesting story here;  if you're into college sports at all, I strongly suggest you read this:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/power-five-ncaa-are-now-officially-adversaries-and-a-breakaway-may-only-be-a-matter-of-time/

 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if there's a schism in the NCAA relatively soon.  It might even be healthy in the long run, forcing a core reorganization of the NCAA as a whole, and probably acknowledgement that the "student-athlete" concept is soooo much hooey.  But a point made is, it's gonna *rip apart* the small schools:  

 

Quote

Those shortened schedules reduce travel during the pandemic but have also consolidated power. In eliminating several Group of Five opponents, the Power Five has denied those schools millions in game contracts. The MAC alone had 13 games against Big Ten opponents canceled. The losses in game guarantees from those Big Ten schools totaled more than $17 million.

 

The minor schools have *often* scheduled the elephants, taking the trampling for the guaranteed game checks that at least help reduce the losses each year.  It's possible...even likely, IMO...that many of the Div I FBS midgets would just go FCS, and that could be the better home.  Or the entire NCAA might implode and total chaos ensue for a decade.  

[Badger]

At the very least they will probably need an extra week or 2 at the end of season to play massive number of unplayed games to sort out playoffs. Like Yankees vs marlins.the doubleheaders will likely only go so fR

 

[unclevlad]

I think the plan is, if necessary...not every team will play the same number of games.  Most teams have played about 10 games...but...

Marlins:  3

Phillies:  4

Cards:  5

Brewers, Nats, Blue Jays:  7

 

The last 3 might be able to make those up, but the scheduled last day is Sept. 27th.  That's 55 days away, and you've already got to pack 50 games in...plus account for weather.  Trying to cram in 6 or 7 more into that time frame would be tough.  Some can be crammed in, if the teams were already scheduled to meet.  Probably not all, I should think.

 

And I don't think they want to delay the playoffs.  The networks won't be happy if they do.  It's also not necessarily fair.  Marlins or Phils opponents have to play, while others have down time?  And several games' worth too.  Will the games be meaningful?  If both teams are out of contention regardless, they wouldn't get made up.  (That's been common...late rain-outs don't get made up if both teams are eliminated.)

[Badger]

Marlins dont matter, but the other teams probably do to an extent. 

 

If I remember, a big reason games are played out, was about 115 years ago a team won the pennant by virtue of playing about 4 less games due to cancellations, and the 2nd and 3rd place teams did not take that well.

 

I would have to check it though

[unclevlad]

You may well be right, and if it does matter, they do try to even things out.  

 

I think the circumstances this year suggest they may pass this time.  EDIT:  one reason is, AFAIK the schedules aren't focused.  They're never balanced per se;  the 72 games you play in your division make the difference between the, say, NL Central (4 decent-to-good teams) versus the AL Central.  I'm seeing a lot more intraleague...like right now, Pirates and Twins are playing 4.  Plus, they're including SO MANY teams...16 out of 30.  So if you can't get in because someone played 3 less games...there might be whining but IMO, it's like missing a bowl game if you're an FBS school.  You should be embarassed you played to that level of mediocrity.

 

Yes, IMO there are too man teams going.  The desirable structure is 25-40% qualify.  More than that, the regular season doesn't matter enough...as with this year's MLB playoffs.  #1 seeds can lose 2 games and they're OUT, even tho they were 10 games better over the 60 than the team that knocked them out.  Less than 25% and you risk over-valuing individual games.  This is influenced, tho, by other factors.  

 

OH...let me add, that whatever they decide to do, they need to announce by, say, mid-September.  Almost no one's gonna be eliminated with 15 games left, not from snatching a 7th or 8th place berth.  They'll need to know, for planning, what the task remaining is.

Last point...just thought of.  If they need to run a ton of double headers, even if they're 7 innings, are they gonna offer some roster size relief?  Or maybe just allow a lot more player moves?  There is going to be pressure to do something in this regard, tho...and 

[unclevlad]

Drone delay.....that's a new one.  Well, ok, it's happened once before.

 

Some git flew a drone into Target Field during the Pirates-Twins game.  Umps pulled the teams off...who knows what's going on.  Got no problem with that.  Makes sense, who the heck knows what's going on, and you don't want to play and have it interfere.  Report is, the Twins bullpen tried to knock it down by throwing balls at it, but that didn't work.  

 

If they can find out who was flying it...they're in trouble.  Civil disruption, AND it's a violation of FAA flight rules.

 

As if this season needed to get any more bizarre.....

[unclevlad]

Fun story at FiveThirtyEight:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mlb-records-that-could-fall-in-a-60-game-season/

 

Interesting point...everyone recognizes that someone hitting .400 this year is reasonably likely.  But there's the other major rate...ERA.  The record is Bob Gibson's 1.12.  This year?  Lance Lynn has 3 starts, 18 innings, and a 0.49.  And every year, you see a few extremely hot pitchers with insane numbers well into even May.