Lawnmower Boy

Oh, hey, no biggie. I appreciate the feedback. I want to cram all the details I can into the techblogging posts (I do actually have a "serious" point to make) and still have everyone in the world read them. It's a pretty fine line to walk!

I picked "Rolling Ressies" up as a contemporary nickname for the R-class in the same number of The Engineer as announced that they were not going to be scrapped as the King George Vs came into service. I am fairly confident that it was a contemporary nickname for the five-ship 1915 class of 15" 20 knot battleships. You're perfectly correct that the entries tend to be long and the story buried. That's because they come from the "Techblogging" series at my professional blog. the framing story is already a pretty considerable indulgence. The techblogging is the point. The pulp story is buried in the details. The exercise here is "secret history," not "alternate history." That being said, I appreciate the feedback. I am running on a bit. It's the danger of self-editing

That, uhm, that sounds like fun. Maybe needs Cthulhu being appeased by death camps or a bloated red sun hanging over a dying Earth, but otherwise I'm booking my vacation there right now!

The whole "They were actually the <i>Revenge-class</i>" thing strikes me as Wikipedia pedantry. <i>The Engineer</i> thought that they were "Royal Sovereigns," and the whole "Rolling Ressies" thing implies "<i>Resolution</i>"-class, another alternative. As for scrapping pre-Dreadnoughts, warships are machines. They exist to be scrapped when they get too old to be repaired, or sunk, or become technologically obsolete. The issue is funding their replacements, so the <i>real</i> story of 1939 is that the British establishment is making the implicit decision to go from a 15 to a 20 battleship fleet, even if it hasn't admitted this to itself yet. (Notice that the Admiralty is in the middle of approving <i>Vanguard</i> right now. The Admiralty wants to push the annual class up from 2 to 3 in order to achieve the 20 ship fleet, giving a theoretical 1:1 ratio against the entire frigging Axis. Notice, though, that I say "theoretical.") Now, I think it is pretty clear that the government would have recoiled from that decision once the manning implications became clear. So, at another level, the story is that too much money is letting people avoid hard decisions. But who knows? Maybe the hard decision would have been to allow the Royal Navy to enroll "lascars." Admiral of the Fleet Lord Wang of Kowloon, anyone?

Postblogging Technological History: October, 1943: Labour at the Limit: Martha's Burden Is Lightened By Speed Welcome to Yorkshire! My Dearest Wing Commander: Congratulations on your promotion, Reggie! As you will suspect from the arrival of the familiar courier and the heft of the package, this correspondence is a response to the Earl's anxious inquiries. Resuming my practice from the spring of 1939, I provide commentary at the head before financials in the hopes that this will help him understand the choices we have made with the money he dare not own. As I look back at the older letters, I marvel at how much has changed in four short years. Then, you were lying low in Vancouver in disgrace. Now you are back in RCAF uniform in dear old Blighty, putting your experience to the benefit of Brittania. Or Canadia? It does not quite seem to roll off the tongue, and I remain in exile amongst the orange groves of Santa Clara County, under standing invitation from Scotland Yard to assist them in inquiries. Being that your son now wears his Captain's rings, and can expect his broad pennant in due time (although not, alas, the Vice-Admiralship, thanks in no small part to his just-ended South Pacific 'exile'), it stands to reason that the family that you disgraced so long ago is no longer inclined to press the issue. Meanwhile, so long as our cousin refuses correspondence with his daughter, I stand suspect of the most lurid imaginable crimes. You will find enclosed, by the way, another package from Chungking with photographs of the grandchildren. Now that you and he are near-colleagues in war billets, I can even dream of you somehow persuading him to look at them. If not, film footage might be more compelling. It is expected, although unfortunately not soon, for our courier has chosen to reach civilisation via the wilds of Central Asia. What the Red Fort and the NKVD do not know, cannot hurt us. Speaking of your son, he arrived on the West Coast at the beginning of the month. One may infer goings-on at Scapa Flow if his services are no longer required in New Caledonia. I will be his host while he pokes about some nooks and crannies for the Admiralty. Amusingly, your boy, who currently rejoices in his after-school status as a Navy dispatch rider, picked him up at the wharf. I was in Seattle at the time, and somehow, someone (and by this I mean Grandfather, who at 103 has not entirely lost his sense of humour) got the idea that a man who had just flown across the Pacific in a PBY might enjoy being harried through the streets of San Francisco like Dundee's bonnet by a seventeen year old on his monstrous American motorcyle. Although, diplomatically, "Captain (E) J. C." only emphasises that he enjoyed his first opportunity to meet his half-brother. Had he only been delayed another day, and I could probably have arranged for his wife to do so in something more closely approaching a satisfactory number of wheels, but she was on a train somewhere west of Denver due to bad flying weather in the Rockies. Borrowed from Bucksindian.com/Buck's_bikes Having, at least obliquely, reintroduced our familiar cast from 1939 (yes, it is Fat Chow who is trying to move those documents from Kashgar to Kabul right now), I should close this ramble and get on with . . . Well, my only slightly more on-topic ramble. Forgive me, I am aging, and garrulous. First, the context (and to show off that family channels are restored and that I can takeThe Economist currently, though ocean and submarines bar the way.) The Economist, 2 October 1943 Leader: “A Time for Decision:” Blah blah inter-allied talks blah blah Russia Poland; “New Men, New Measures:” Minor cabinet shuffle due to Sir Kingsley Wood having died. Foreign affairs need attention, particularly theh “dollar problem. “Scotland’s Future:” how is the congenital depression of the past interwar to be prevented in the next? More Science. (In heavy engineering, which is Scotland’s past and future.) Colour me skeptical that every corner of the world can get rich off of steel and ships. Although I would suggest that Scotland has a better chance than California. At least it hascoal. We are railing it in from Utah. “Notes of the Week:” The Russian steamroller –is rolling. “Corsica and Algiers.” The self-liberation of Corsica raises questions about France’s political future. “The Women;” a conference of 6000 female leaders was held in confidence with various members of the Cabinet. The leader finds hilarity. 6000 women keeping a secret! Unfortunately, this is a lead in to ”Womenpower Policy,” making it clear why the cabinet has to take time to explain everything to the little dears. I wonder if there will be the looks and quiet comments that sometimes make me so foolish in the midst of explaining something lengthy and complicated to the now-Mrs. "J. C." Fomerly "Miss G. C.," and hopefully you know what I am tallking about, Reggie, as I am almost as confused as any putative snoop reading this missive is supposed to be. “Recruitment and Replenishment:” to make up labour in the factories in the face of attrition. “Advance in Italy:” we’re advancing. “Self Redemption:” is happening. “A Positive Policy:” things are not as bad in coal, cotton, and iron as they could be. “Pendulum Turns;” whereas in three elections so far this year, the government of a Dominion has been returned with a triumphant majority, in New Zealand it has been returned with a minority, boding ill for the future perhaps? In any event, the next six months will be crucial. “American Survey" “Plot and Counter Plot:” last week’s alleged plot to get rid of General Marshall by kicking him upstairs give way to charges of an Administration scheme to replace him with Sommervell as a first step to grooming him as the Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee in 1944. The Chicago Tribune likes both theories. At the same time. Meanwhile, MacArthur’s surprising comments on the Mountbatten appointment, that he will do what he can with the resources that he is given, and that “island hopping” has proven a mistaken strategy, have allowed Pacific Firsters to resume the criticism. This is the likeliest line of attack against the President. Isolationists love the Pacific War, and MacArthur’s name has been bruited as the “anti-Roosevelt” candidate in 1944. “Shipping in Economic Policy:” the Journal of Commerce reports on the Maritime Commission’s plan for a postwar fifty-fifty division of foreign trade between American and foreign ships. This is in line with Admiral Land’s vigorous campaign promoting American shipbuilding: 2,100 ships, 22 million DWT. Again I observe that unless Americans learn to make better, cheaper ships, this is unlikely to happen. But who am I to stand against pessimism on the Clyde, as while I am not saying that Americans will take their business,I am saying that. . . . Well, never mind. Walter Lippman suggests that America is getting ready to have “no ecomomic foreign policy.” Which I take to be an argument for American autarky. All of the war industries are staking their claim to be strategically vital –rubber, aviation, shipbuilding. What room is there for foreigners to make anything for sale to Americans? “Bypassing WLB” The Los Angeles railwaymen strike is over after 2 days. A WLB decision striking down a wage increase (from 15 cents to 4) is now to be reviewed by a special Presidential panel. The suggestion is that the new wage will be accepted at the price of extending the workweek by 10—14 hours/week. The World Overseas “Bulgarian Tensions:” rats, ships, sinking; peasants and workers are resisting in various ways, although a bumper cereal crop has eased tensions. The way forward is seen in Sofia as the formation of a “totalitarian” state party to push totalitarian solutions. Far sighted, for look how Germany has marched from success to success! “Employment in Eire:” employment in Eire is down due to all the young people leaving for Britain. It looks like Great Britain has taken the whole of Ireland’s underemployment problem, that is, the whole labour surplus, and “perhaps more than the surplus.” But we see problems in the long run as Britain demobilises and they all come home. Good news now means bad news later! “Germany at War:” bread shortage; failure of New Order. The Business World “Inflation in India.” British procurement in India is met by direct spending, and the excess stirling coming into the country is not being mopped up, but rather escapes into the economy. The effect of the rise of prises has been to encourage subsistence farmers to withhold food from the market. More taxes, or a transition to defence financing by loans is needed. Hmm. Well, what is the worst possible outcome from encouraging farmers to withhold subsistence crops from the market? Business Notes Shipping firms taking on “the power to run airlines;” warring currencies in Italy; Coal position is bad, search for volunteers to work in the mines not going well; ‘optants,’ at, for example, the fully mechanised Bolsover Collier Company are going into training to work the new machinery instead of to the faces to cut coal. But that’s good, right?”New High Levels:” business expansion was solid, but less than optimists expected. “Engineering Wages Award.” The strike at Barrow-in-Furness continues as the award was less than the unions asked for. “Bombay Bullion restrictions:” Bombay bullion quotes have slumped with restrictions such as a limit of forward puts to 2 days. Even 4 days was too long to prevent a Bombay trader from doing an in-and-out with no money changing hands. We now have a situation where any bullion sold must go to actual “savers or hoarders.” Raw cotton production is weak; hard fibre production is being promoted; a/c production is up, as is hp/structure weight lb. The Economist, 9th October 1943 Leader: “Military Approach;” Italian surrender not well handled. “The Upper Regions:” aviation needs a postwar organisation/settlement. “What Kind of Agriculture:” Agriculture needs a postwar organisation/settlement. “The Means of War:” Chatfield, Field-Marshal Milne, Air Marshal Salmond, Lord Hankey and Lord Winter have just sent an open letter to the Times saying that munitions production needs a postwar organisation/settlement (but beginning now). The paper notes that at a time when labour is being shifted from munitions to a/c in response to higher political direction, it is a little silly to have the duties transferred from one office in MinSupply to another in MAP. Leaving it up to the Battle of Whitehall just means a continuation of the trend for Bomber Command to overbear Army Cooperation and the FAA. There should be more a/c for specialised use, but the bombers keep getting in the way. In summary, less MAP, more MinSup, more efficiency, centralisation, planning. “Notes of the Week:” “New Sea Lord;” Pound steps down, is replaced by A B Cunningham. Well, that’ll end well, the paper says. Or implies. I think. At least with a destroyer man in charge there will be no shortage of bold moves. Such as dragging our aircraft carriers into Stuka range of land. “Italian Front.” Don’t say bogged down, say selectively advancing. “Goebbels at Home and Abroad;” Goebels' recent and putative moves are construed as a ‘peace offensive’ abroad, intended to break up the Alliance. “Practical Demobilisation:” a plan is released. “Strikes and Strikers.” The strike at Barrow is over. Strikes are down year over year, and Parliamentary Labour’s anti-Trotskyitism is transparent. Hey, you on the Left! Fight all you like! “Finnish Tug-of-War: rats. Sinking. Ships. American Survey “The Great Contradiction:” American isolationism is dead; and replaced by American nationalism. Admiral Vickery’s recent comment that America is now a great maritime nation and intends to stay that way whether foreigners like it or not, is Exhibition A. “Economic Foreign Policy:” America proposes to export everything and import nothing. Walter Lippman is quoted again. “the Practical Issue:” is that Americans do not realise how quickly the country has changed from being a net debtor to a net creditor, and anyway think that it could be easily reversed. American Notes “RE-birth of an Elephant” Wendell Wilkie demands that the Republican party change its spots and reclaim its status as the great American liberal party. Luce's Time, by the way, thinks that the Grand Old Party needs to be less captured by donations and more attentive to its progressive past. Wilkie has some salty things to say about people who talk free enterprise and practice monopoly and restriction. He is for more and better social security. He is vague on foreign policy, and afraid that mismanagement of the home front will extend the war. “the Senator’s Report:” the five senators who have been touring the war fronts are getting ready to present their report, instead of talking about it whenever a reporter is in earshot. Senator Lodge suggests that we will need Russian bases for the air war against Japan. "The Tax Programme: " Mr. Morgenthau has presented his new proposals to the House Ways and Means Committee. Mr. Doughton, the chairman, promptly attacked them as “more than the people can bear.” Congress, we predict, will authorise nothing like such increases, and the successes of the third war bond drive will be pointed to as an example of the success of voluntary loan measures, and a blind eye will be turned to the spending frenzy that has shops in the country open from morning till night. “Little Orphan Annie”has been getting in trouble. The famous comic strip heroine, beloved of the McCormick-Patterson press, has ventured too deep into politics, getting into a feud with the local Office of Price Administration director over gasoline rationing, which is hugely unpopular in the Mid-West. The World Overseas “Fascist Republic” the situation in Italy is ….confused. Also, Croatia. Somehow. The Business World Business Notes Talk of postwar financial order. Situation in Barrow reunsettled. “Women Trade Unionists:” Once the AEU opened its ranks to women, all of the TUC had to,and now they are working out women’s wages, especially that of women not “hired as men,” that is, to replace a male worker. And then there is the need for domestic accommodation. Without this, there is a risk that “industrial fatigue” and “confidence in the outcome of the war” will lead to increased absenteeism. The laundry industry is overburdened; “Skilled men for the services;” People should look at their Army Technical School as a place for careers for boys. This will make the Navy's recruitment work even more difficult, I would wager. The Economist 16 October 1943 Leaders “Pacific Command:” Lord Mountbatten has arrived in India. The ever-oily T. V. Soong has joined him in New Delhi. I am almost ready to root for the Reds just to get rid of the Soongs. With America exerting itself to its utmost in the Pacific, any increase in resources there and acceleration of the Pacific war will have to come out of British resources and thus from Europe. Will it happen, or will we continue to nibble at the peripheries of the Japanese position? “Coal Comfort:” can coal be nationalised” Not without an election, the PM said, so shut up about it. There will be no extension of powers to coerce labour. There needs to be more labour, and more coal per worker. American coal mines are more productive because of mechanisation. Ours have been kept going by low wages. This, the paper thinks, must change. “Notes of the Week” Pravda says that the discussions in the Moscow conference must be strictly military. There can be no more question about the postwar borders of the Soviet Union than about the frontiers of the United Sates or the status of California.” "The Great Surprise:" Remember how the Brusilov Offensive turned out to be Russia's last hurrah? The resumption of the Soviet offensive has shattered German hopes. The Azores open to an Allied base. “A New Phase?” The Germans have in the past been more militarily dashing than the Allies, so the midget submarine attack on Tirpitz is refreshing. We credit Cunningham, who apparently used his time machine to set it in motion while he was still in Washington. Follows a series of items on the “end of the political crisis” in Germany occasioned by the Italian surrender, which I was unaware of at time time, on the Conservative adoption of a number of reform measures in their traditional role as the “clothes snatchers” who borrow Liberal clothes while the Liberals distract themselves at bathing; on domestic service, a sticking point in the recent Ministry of Labour decision to take women into the compulsory labour regristry; “As Others See Us:” apparently, Americans and British are inclined to see themselves as blundering amateurs, the other as Machiavellian schemers. The Vital statistics of the nation continue to be good, with live births in the last quarter at 180,691, giving a crude birth rate of 17.5/1000 versus an average of 15.7 for the same quarter over the last 5 years. The infant mortality rate is the lowest ever recorded, but an ominous sign for the future is a fall in the marriage rate over the 5 year average. Death rate is also lower. American Survey Priorities in Labour: the grim prospect of labour rationing has been held up by an extension of the work week to 48 hours, by the summer student hiring boom, and by the recruitment of women, but the slack is gone. Unemployment is down to the limit of employability, 4 million more are envisioned to be called up for service or in the munitions industry, and production is not forecast to plateau for another 4 months. “Local Supply and Replenishment” The argument for the local control of labour is “built up from many angles.” There are (except on the West Coast) regions of employment shortage and surplus in every state. If the housing situation could only be remedied, these might resolve themselves. Meanwhile, there is the problem of labour hoarding, exacerbated by cost-plus contracts that have taken labour into the munitions industries where payrolls might still be padded, and there are particularly bad cases, such as the wage differential between Boeing-Seattle and the adjacent Kaiser yards. My mouth is closed. American Notes The Five Senators are doing their hit, “British guile and Uncle Sam, the Sucker.” Or are they? What did they say, as opposed to what the press said they said? “Political Warfare:” the President proposes to end the Chinese Exclusion Act to remove a weapon from the Japanese propaganda effort, and likewise to accelerate Philippine independence to 1946. Hurrah, I say. Perhaps in the next century or so Americans will be able to admit to themselves what was really behind the Exclusion Act. As you will have noticed yourself, there really is a most striking resemblance between your two sons. That last, however, is somewhat sinister, in that domestic sugar producers have always been eager to see Philippine independence sooner rather than later. “Shipping and Strategy:” the shipping situation is improving rapidly, and perhaps the war can be accelerated by sending an American army abroad faster than planned? The Business World A World Capital Bank: should exist in the future. The Health Minister has concerns about housing; Admiral Vickery is still threatening to drive the white duster from the sea. Good luck with that on American wages! Nationalisation of transport; financial talk; an Italian loan; Bombay bullion prices now rising; liquidation of surpluses to be a post war issue; ‘Settling-in’ Grants to be increased to women who have to move to work in Britain. The Economist, 23 October 1943 Leader: False Premises” Churchill should stop being such a wet blanket on reforming the coal sector. “Il faut en Finir.” Will the war be over in three months, in six, in twelve? We need more aeroplanes, and an invasion. Notes of the Week Italian co-belligerency raises waves. Fresh Start in India:” Wavell replaces Linlithgow with the remit of fixing India’s war finance and ending the Bengal famine. “Democratic Planning:” Mr. F. J. Osborn, of the Town and Country Planning Association, deprecates too much emphasis on utopian city plans as opposed to what people really want –houses and gardens, for which they are willing to accept congestion, commutes, and ribbon development. As steward of a very large orange grove less than sixty miles from San Francisco and much closer to Oakland, I say no more. “Ukrainian Manganese,” the loss of Nikopol won’t cripple the German war effort. : “Bombing and Ball Bearings:” The Flying Fortress raid on Schweinfurt on October 14 struck at the heart of German war production. Its objective was the destruction of the important ball and roller-bearing plants of Kugel Fischer AG and Vereinigte Kugellagerfabriken AG, the large German subsidiary of the Swedish SKF. Photos show that at least half the facilities were destroyed, and Brigadier General Anderson of the USAAF suggests that the plants had been knocked out of production, and that an eventual restoration of 25% of production is the most that one could hope for in the immediate future. The paper thinks that this is overstated, as is the idea that Germany has no more ball bearing production, since there are plenty of other export sources. “Stand by Duties:” air raid warning work is getting harder for salaried civil servants to bear. “Fire Guard regulations” it used to be that many fire guards were paid a small, officially-set expense stipend, while some who were taken on before the national scheme was lput in place were paid more. Now all will be paid the same, low rate. Progress! American Survey The Senate is fine with a United Nations. “Common Grounds:” Wilkie and Sumner Wells think that, as well as a two-way alliance, the United States should be in a Four Power alliance, so that everything is fair and open. Dewey seems to think that four-way instead of two-way is the way to go. The New York Daily News, organ of the isolationists, has very tepidly endorsed the Anglo-American alliance in an irresponsible way that excludes Russia. “Coal Deadline:” last week’s strike in the Alabama and Indiana fields was a sharp reminder that this winter’s coal is in jeopardy, and the 31 October deadline of the “labour truce announced by John L. Lewis last year is coming fast. The strike, although not called by Lewis, must not have been unwelcome to him, as it puts pressure on the WLB in considering the Illinois contract, which in draft form calls for a pay increase of $2/day and pay for time travelled underground. Approval by the WLB would be a bitter pill to swallow as it might increase general restlessness over wages and force the OPA to approve an increase in coal prices. It is on the Administration to reconcile justice for the miners, coal for the war, and inflation. The Business World “Experiment in Price Control” price control is hard. “Business Notes” Lord McGowan of ICI thinks that the British chemical industry is just fine; “The Future of Coal:” less to be produced at a higher price. “Research and Industry” “The Parliamentary and Scientific Committee” is all about scientific research. We only spend a tenth of what they do in the US and Russia, apparently, and that’s shameful. “New Rupee Loan:” the Government of India is getting the Victory Bond racket. The Red Fort is never afraid to be a mile long and a pound short! “ “Bread and Potatoes:” (British) people should eat more potatoes, less bread. “Opencast coal” is something that we are experimenting with. And not for long, I expect. “Pulp and Paper supplies” are short. As someone who has committed to paging through literally hundreds of pages of advertising to find editorial copy, I can only thank my Maker. The Economist, 30 October 1943 Leaders “Co-Belligerent Italy” Badolgio makes nice. “Hungry Millions.” Food is a thing. “Infant Mortality” is down in England and Wales. But it is still too high in the lower classes. Mainly because of communicable diseases, which is appalling. Notes of the Week The Moscow Conference is apparently going smoothly; so is “The Super-Battle” in the south. “The Nation’s Debt:” is to returning veterans. Who should be prevented from forming proto-Fascist organisations. The paper pays tribute to Haig and the British Legion for preventing that after the last war.Luce's Time, meanwhile, covers the recent convention of the American Legion in Oklahoma City, recalling its first convention there twenty years ago, when telephone companies arranged busses to convey operators to work, as it was deemed unsafe for a woman to be in the streets at the same time as the randy convention-goers. Now, it marvels that Legionnaires bring their wives to the convention. One wonders if Haig also prevented epidemics of "fanny pinching." Which, I swear, I am not making up. Time really said that. “Slogging Up Italy.” Slogging is a motion of a sort, at least. “The Demand for Teachers:” falls 70,000 short of the supply under the Government’s proposed educational reforms. “Exchange Control” is relaxed. American Survey “Political Trends in American Labour” are pro-Democratic and anti-Wilkie in spite of his liberalism. One mine leader who recalls speaking in 1940 of millions of shrunken bellies might note that there are not shrunken bellies any more. “the Rising Tide;” of wages; “the Cost of Living” is up; ‘”Taxes: Nobody’s Baby.” “the View from Mid-Continent (by our Ottawa correspondent) has it that Europeans should stop growing wheat. Germany at War “November Days,” the 25th anniversary of Germany’s sudden and unexpected collapse in 1918 is imminent. We all hope that it will happen again, and Germany’s leading Nazis are making sure that it won’t. Business Notes "The Harvest” will be the largest ever, but, nevertheless, I read that biscuits have to be rationed, as the output is down by half of prewar production. Now, instead of raising the point value of a biscuit ration even higher, the Ministry of Food is lowering the point value of “Spam” type canned meat to attract points away from biscuits. The fact that people can divert points to biscuits suggest that the overall food situation is good. The idea that people will substitute American meat-in-a-can for chocolate-covered biscuits is, I suggest, less realistic. Let me not look a gift horse (or in the case of our American operations, lamb) in the mouth, but the fact that our drafty little isles are flooded with Spam is not an argument that people will eat it readily. So that is The Economist. But what of a more congenially American view? Here to tide you over until Time begins its delivery to our little hacienda is Fortune October 1943 As always, I must leaf through a great number of ads, and I sometimes wonder at whom they are aimed. Now I do not claim to be an art historian --I just blackmail their handlers through them-- but I see the diaphonous white fabric through the luminous white light and I see the story that hides behind this factory worker checking the parachute that "Must Not Fail" some flyer overseas. But "Diplodocus forgot to change his mind?" The point here is so strange that I put it in text. It is that “Puck, the Comic Weekly,” brings America the laughs of Donald Duck and Blondie, and that if your firm does not advertise in it, you will be as extinct as a dinosaur. Which could have avoided species extinction by advertising in a comic weekly to reach the American buying public. Fortune Management Poll: Executives see prosperity at home, “but without the freedom they desire.” Abroad, they hope for world cooperation, and will throw in tariff cuts to make it so. 70.3% expect a general boom, 66.7% a boom in their particular industry. London Cable The English are confident of victory; anti-invasion preparations are quietly decaying; the sound of bombers overhead is constant. “England exudes air power.” Letters: Canadians think that Americans are ignorant and vulgar; Coventry is interested in this American “city planning” talk; a new system of Standardised Aptitude Testing will going to change education for the better. Southerners are better African handlers than Northerners says this Southern factory owner, who thinks that while Africans make good servants and workers, they would be terrible foremen, if his firm ever employed them in that role, which it would not, since then they might have to supervise Whites. Which is obviously not on. Trials and Errors No-one likes Wilkie or Roosevelt, and we are looking forward to a “lesser of two evils” style campaign. Though the Republicans might nominate a “Know-Nothing” who would ‘resume the battle of 1931,’ in which case he would soon be envying Herbert Hoover his popularity. Though looking up the road from Santa Clara, I see precincts where Hoover has not lost his popularity. Somewhat discouragingly, my view across my crowded study takes me across the kind of English murder mystery where, when the cad is presented with evidence of his ill-deeds and a loaded revolver, he retires into the next room and shoots himself, as opposed to the next sound you hear (remember Subadar Haji Ali telling us this story?) being that of a feet laden by a waistcoat full of gold rupiahs hitting the verandah floor on the first step of their trip to, eventually, California. But enough of family stories. If Wilkie wins, southern Democrats, knowing that Roosevelt has stop “fighting for Negroes and for labor,” will turn on him with zest. The country is headed for a ‘historic social crisis,’ and the paper is thinking now of the election of 1856. Optimism reigns at the offices of Fortune! Articles “Soldiers, Jobs, and the Peace.” Demobilization will be a trial. The paper points out that the day that Mussolini ‘evaporated,’ the markets slumped. The country has not sweated Depression out of its system, and peace has a taste of apples sold on street corners. Canada has done a good job of preparing for demobilization with a Veteran’s Land Act. We should have something like that. One thing that could be done is give soldiers and sailors a pre-separation education, or certification of their service trades. This will help achieve full employment. What is full employment? 1943 saw a workforce of 51.4 million, 11 million in the armed forces, and 1 million unemployed. Moreover, the average number of hours worked was 10% over 1940 numbers. This is not sustainable in peace. In August, “more than” 4 million school-aged children (14—17) were working, and most should return to school in the fall. Almost 1.5 million in the 55—64 age range were working, and more than 500,000 in the 65+. 70% of women, in the August 1944 Fortune survey rated homemaking higher than “career,” so female employment rates will no doubt fall in peace. Meanwhile, our industrial capacity has “grown and grown,” with an increase of $18 billion in productive capacity. GNP will have leaped from 97 to 181 billion in the same time frame. Even allowing for inflation, raising the employment level by 15% over 1940 will require a permanent increase of one-third of GNP over 1940. Carl Swanson, “Big Butter and Egg Man.” Mr. Swanson is selling four times as much processed food as he used to. This is in spite of the black market , which is not a problem, although the Fayetteville, Arkansas plant that used to ship 7 cars of poultry a week now is lucky to fill one, because the black market takes all of Arkansas’s chickens. “Quality Control,” is something that Walter Shewhart of Bell Telephone Laboratories is awesome at. The anonymous author of the article, who knows a great deal about quality control at Bell Telephone laboratories, notes. “To One-Millionth of an Inch,” is how closely SKF industries mills. “The Earth Movers, III: I come in at the third and last installment of this account of Henry J. Kaiser and the Six Companies. I provide more context in the second part of this report, so I will confine myself to pointing out that this is a real "hit" piece. (Fortunately, the reporter proved amenable to removing the most embarrassing bits.) Kaiser remains a construction contractor. Which makes it hard to explain why Kaiser tried to turn a cement plant over to making magnesium? Other than, before it was noticed that magnesium-making was actually hard, it looked like Kaiser was going to take business away from Dow. Instead, in the Six Companies consortium originally formed around CalShips, Bechtel has moved away from rubber --another thing that the Six Companies were going to do-- to plane making in Birmingham, Alabama, and an arctic oil venture called Canol, and also construction, but with Bechtel leading the way, not Kaiser. Also, Kaiser got into West Coast steel back in 1940. There is a steel plant at Fontana, California, 50 miles outside Los Angeles, coal mines in Utah, 807 miles away, ore in central southern California, shipyards at tidewater, and, well, frankly, it is a mess. Now, what of theWPB’s fines for tampering with material schedules, or accusations of labour hoarding at the Richmond yards, where monthly turnover amongst 94,000 workers had reached 24,000 by the spring, and where more than a quarter of the labour force is just rotating through training courses? What about massive kickbacks to the AFL for labor peace on construction sites, and deals with the same to make shipyards closed shops? What about his proposed giant cargo planes, for which he and Hughes hoovered up $18 million in real money. What about Kaiser carriers and medical insurance? Kaiser has a great deal to answer for, the Luce papers think. “China’s Postwar Plans.” Apparently do not include not being taken over by the Reds. Let us see. We have puritanical reformers in Shaanxi Province, and corrupt southerners in Chungking. I see that the Luce organisation does not employ gentlemen literati. What can I say? Our ancestors stood by the Ming, and were rewarded by having to slip back in from the margins, and while I do not advocate abandoning the Koumintang, I do see history repeating itself, and contemplate ways of quickening the process. Which is why Fat Chow has been to the north. Aviation, October 1943 (42, 4) McGraw-Hill line technical magazines enjoy the benefits of two editorials. The wisdom of the magazine's leader not being sufficient, James H. McGraw, Junior, share his, as well. Line Editorial: Mr. McGraw thinks, as a man with the company name and a "junior" appended might well be disposed to so think, that free enterprise is threatened by the rise of ideas about state planning. This being said, a long acquaintance with a certain variety of businessman leaves me slightly nonplussed when he pivots to discussing the crux of the issue, which, according to him, is Tunemployment. Let it rise too high, and there will be “widespread fear and lack of opportunity, which will drive labor unions, agricultural groups, and business interests to take self-protective measures. Such measures are certain to restrict production, stifle progress, and imperil our democratic way of life.” The Great Depression has made an impression, I think. Aviation Editorial: Leslie reminds us that men make planes, and planes save manpower at the front. Military demands for more manpower have hit the aviation industry hard. It is a young man’s business. “Between 25 and 50 percent of the engineering personnel of the industry are in the 18 to 25-year-old range and many of these men are unmarried.” That is, they are subject to the draft. What will help? Not the “Buffalo Plan” and attempts by the United States Employment Service to extend it nationally, but rather amendments to the Selective Service regulations to protect key personnel. Oh, and an actual plan defining what we are to have, men or planes. On the one hand, McGraw is concerned about unemployment in the future. On the other, Leslie is concerned about a labour shortage right now. John Foster, Jr. “Which Will We Get: Men or Planes?” The new West Coast Manpower Program is not enough. It is just a makeshift. Today, the industry has 1.7 million hands, and to meet the schedules already authorised will require 2.2. On the basis of previous turnover, we will need to hire more than 1.5 million to achieve a net increase of 0.5. The number would be far higher did the industry not plan on a 40% increase in manpower utilisation. This seems unlikely, as the labour barrel has been sucked dry, and the labour coming into the plants now, mainly women, lack “factory sense.” The Buffalo Plan is supposed to address this (in Buffalo), but has not. Skilled labour that does not want to work where the Buffalo Plan will certify them to work can always choose to leave town in search of better housing conditions elsewhere. Instead, manufacturers want to import labour from “surplus” areas and use Selective Service to cut down on turnover. If we could only draft our work force, everything would be splendid! Is it just me, or does this recall certain halcyon days in the past of American business? Raymond L. Hoadley, “You Can’t Write Profits in Red Ink.” All that “war profiteering” stuff is shown to be false by demonstrating that while sales have soared, earnings per share have not. Although profits are huge, they are being socked away to cover postwar demobilisation. Huge reserves are being set aside for “postwar and contingencies." Senator Truman's rude suggestion that huge and burgeoning bank accounts are evidence that aviation manufacturing outfits are making a great deal of money from government contracts are shocking and wrong. Design Analysis: Fleetwings BT-12. All you could ever want to know about the Fleetwings basic trainer. Jock Simpson, “Douglas Licks U-Boats Without Bombs.” How you are wondering? Because you cannot torpedo DC-3s. Planes fly over the water carrying cargo, while ships sail through it with cargo,rendering them eminently torpedoable! Given the level of analysis here, you will be at least happy to know that the main body of the article descrbies just how good Douglas is at making DC-3s. Gerald E. Stedman, “Refrigerators to ‘Thunderbolt ‘ Wings,” (Photo of wing assembly in today’s photo file.) Servel made refrigerators before the war. Now it makes P-47 wings. Kenneth S. Jackman, “Super-Aluminum Alloys for Aircraft Strutures.” 24S alloys, some of them artificially aged, that is, baked till done, are really good for making planes, but corrosion issues remain to be resolved. At Consolidated Vultee’s Engineering Test Laboratories, we are doing that work. Aviation News General Arnold hints that our two new super-heavies will be in service in the near future and will dwarf the B-17. Canada will continue to increase production of the Lancaster, Mosquito and Helldiver. Resin-impregnated plywood is replacing duralumin in aircraft hatches. Cities look horrible when you enter them by train, so people should fly in instead, because airports are as attractive as they are convenient to the city beautiful. Speaking of which, architect Paul R. Williams predicts that the “decentralization” of cities will be one result of the war. Of the 3500 people hired for Convair’s new Nashville plant, 60% had never been in a factory before. Plastic needs to be “deglamorized.” Because it is, you know. Glamorous, that is. Aviation Personalities I probably shan't continue to follow this feature, as it is discouraging to notice just how young so many prominent aviation men are at death in this fast-paced war of ours. But I am an old and cynical man. In any case, Richard DuPont(38) George E. Irvin (49), G. Willis Tyson (38) and Major Edward G. Schulz have lately died. Aviation Manufacturing -Manufacturers want better provisionss against contract terminations in the event of an early end to the war in Europe; Convair is to make the ‘Seawolf.’ Northrop is to make a plane. Manufacturers complain about new “renegotiation and recapture” legislation. Wright Engine’s Lockland plant’s production rate is recovering from the recent Truman-inspired changes. The Justice Department is suing, but a defence is being planned. Remarkably, the dip in aircraft production over the summer proves to be the Truman Committee's fault. August aircraft production was 7,612, up in numbers but still below schedule, which calls on the nation to hit 10,000/mo by year’s end. Though Donald W. Douglas says not even a miracle would be enough to achieve this without new labour. Thomas Wolfe of Western Air Lines predicts a 40% increase in air traffic volumes in the first decade of peace, and Harold Crary of UAL says that war surplus planes won’t do for peacetime service. Which is to say, do not short your aviation stocks just yet. Which, besides suggesting that a little improvement will be needed before the little lady can drop you off up, quite remarkable hair unruffled, the Land of a Thousand Lakes for some manly sport, that B-17s will not make good airliners. I would personally be amazed if many of them were still flying, but perhaps I am unduly influenced by what I see going on down at the Oakland shipyards. Not to speak ill of a cousin but. . . Aviation Finance: Curtiss Wright shows net profits of 13 million, or 1.45/share. Sales rose to 770 million over 373 million in the previous year, and renegotiation returned 175 million to the government, while a postwar tax refund of $1/share was set up. North American’s renegotiation reduced profits from 10.4 million (4.3% of sales) to 7.37, or 2.91% of sales. I notice an ad from Hartzell Propeller Co. ad. No easing up‘till victory is won! Then we get to slack like the dickens. Oh, I am sorry. I believe that I am only supposed to think that last part. Aero Digest October, 1943 I cannot even pretend that Aero Digest covers aviation news at this point. It seems even more thoroughly locked out of the service's distribution list than Grey's Aeroplane at its worst, and for much the same reason, It does run good technical articles, however. “Precision Bombing and the Automatic Pilot.” The Norden bombsight was invented years ago, but an electronically controlled autopilot was recently announced. “Our Aircraft the most Formidable in the Skies.” Out of context, this is an odd, almost hysterical article. In the context of the Army's late-October quasi-public inquest over the disastrous casualties of the Schweinfurt raid, one can see where the defensive tone originates. If you are wondering, they are more formidable than, say, Lancasters because of .50 cals, and remote control. Also, cannons and local control. The B-17G has a chin turret! The P-47’s guns exert 96,000lb of pressure on a plate of armour. The 37mm cannon has an HE round! There is over 100lb of armour plate on one of our big bombers! This time in North Africa, a chap saw a plate of aeronautical-grade glass stop a 20mm shell! Our crews have body armour! Nathan Bedford Forrest said “Git that fustest with the mostest.” The last, if you know Americans, and you do, is probably most telling of all. When they affect a Southern accent and quote General Forrest, they really do think that they are defending a lost cause. I am not myself convinced that such pessimism is warranted, but we shall see.

http://www.harrowell.org.uk/blog/2013/10/23/i-happen-to-have-the-book-here/

I'd add that the whole "cities were population sinks" thing always overlooked the existence of rural slums. Just because there weren't as many people in the shire as there were in London doesn't meant that your little hamlet isn't letting its sewage seep into the drinking water. On the other hand, there's cases like ancient Rome, where the reconstructed population densities are incredible and we know that most people (aqueducts aside) got their drinking water from wells. This is enough to make me suspect that the population statistics, reconstructed from the corn dole, are perhaps reflecting fraud on the dole side. (Hence my crazy "the Roman Empire [or, hell, ancient empires more generally) are all about cattle drives."

To conceal his true identity, Man in the Iron Mask-style. There's even a semi-legendary account of a Cominterm advisor to the Chinese Communists who always wore a mask.

I don't know if you've ever bought facial cream, but FYI, it comes in tiny little jars that we retail at $30 per. We sell a lot of that stuff. It's always out on the shelf, and there are always people browsing in the aisles. Now, I know what you're thinking. Wouldn't your typical "How old do you think she is" lady be a bit embarrassed being seen lingering over the Oil of Olay Total Effects? But that's the wonder of it. The shoppers are all unshaven, skinny, agitated men just on the seedy side of 40, with black baseball caps jammed tight down over their faces. They tend to wear backpacks, and carry shopping baskets with light but bulky items that cover the bottom of the basket. Curiously, we often find the baskets later, in out-of-sight nooks and crannies, with the bulky items still in them. Oh, well, time to reorder the Oil of Olay. And the $30 power toothbrushes, and the packs of steaks and the Monster energy drinks.... And tomorrow I am going to launch my own business opportunity. I'm going to cut to the chase and sell money. $20 bills, $50, $100, and maybe combo packs, all small and loose and easily concealed. We'll sell the bills to the stores at, say, $55, and the stores will sell them at $60. We'll have to pay the company a good chunk of our profits to fit them into the schematic, but once we're done that, they'll count against the Out of Stock audit, so that the stores will have to re-order them when they sell out. Er, "sell out."

Reading back numbers of Aviation from the fall of 1943, I learn that Struthers & Dunn of Philadelphia makes electric relays that have "memory." No matter how complicated the circuit is,the points on Struthers & Dunn relays "remember" which was the last to have current applied to it. I guess that's important if you're an electrical circuit designer. "Honeywell of Minneapolis" has learned a lot about "control" working with the United States Army Air Force. So, when peace comes, bring your control problems to Honeywell! Sperry reminds us of "Elmer, the man who never sleeps." Elmer isn't a man. He's a "gyroscopic autopilot." But he's as good as a man! Ducol, the armour maker, has a new sideline, building rolodex-thingies the size of a desk. "Spare a girl for other work!" With the Ducol rotating filing systems, one file girl can do the work of 3! Control is important, South Bend Lathes reminds us. Why, their new lathe has a central control position, where the lathe operator can set all the conditions for a complex machining operation. It's just like the cockpit of a C-54. (Which also has a lot of controls.) Dowty liveline carburettors (now 100% American owned!) "think for themselves." Guys. I think I have an explanation for why the productivity gains of the information revolution haven't been more dramatic. (Allowing that that is actually true.) You're looking for them about 70 years too late.

Notice that Lindisfarne did not become a Viking outrage until the 12th Century writings of Simeon of Durham. Before that, one had the inconvenient problem that our sources were a letter from Alcuin to the effect that the monks of Lindisfarne had it coming to another abbot with issues with the See of York, and a reference to it happening in the first week of January in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle. January is not, in the North Sea, the raiding month, and while Alcuin might have been a saintly churchman, he was also very much a man of the world and a proponent of York's oft-disputed authority over the monasteries of the northeast coast. Now: Simeon of Durham, who first proposed to emend the Chronicle to read "June" (still a little early for raiding, which usually happened after the crops were brought in) instead of June. There is a great deal we do not know about Simeon, but we do know that he was a monk and member of the chapter of the Palatine Bishopric of Durham, the overmighty ecclesastical ministate that contested authority in the old Northumbrian lands with the men who sat at Bamburgh, whom we know to have been ancestors of Scotland's royal Dunkeld dynasty, and suspect to have been their ancestors in the line male, as well as of the Percys and perhaps Nevilles. (And, for that matter, the Armstrongs of Armstrong-Whitworth.) Durham's claim to Palatine status, and to its lands, depends not on ancient charters, for no charters of this era exist for the northeast. (Yet another dog barking in the nighttime in this story.) Rather, it depends on Bede's Ecclesiastical History of the English, which records the donation of vast estates to Lindisfarne by the early Northumbrian kings. Now, you might detect a problem here. Lindisfarne is not Durham! Lindisfarne is a fortress-island only five miles from the great royal citadel of Bamburgh across the water, clearly under the gaze of its citadel, and formidably protected by a castle on its own mount that was probably the site of the Anglo-Saxon monastery. Durham is a port town on the river Wear, just down from Newcastle-on-Tyne, the kind of staples export town that became important in the world in the eleventh century. How did we come to confuse Durham with Lindisfarne? Answer: the bishopric of St. Cuthbert, patron of Lindisfarne, was translated to Durham in the tenth century. We have the story:in 863, the Great Viking Army killed the two contesting kings of Northumbria and established themselves at the Archepiscopal city of York. As tolerant as they were of the Archbishop of York, these Vikings conceived a dislike of Lindisfarne, and, in good time (875), decided to sack it. Forwarned of the Viking menace (which, in fact, never materialised), the monks of Lindisfarne fled their seat. Wandering here and there about the northlands, after 7 years, they came to the town of Chester-le-Street, where they lay in exile for a century. (By cleverly hiding on the main road north, they evaded Viking attentions. Who would think to look for them there?) Then, and the end of the 10th Century, they decided that Chester-le-Street was bad for the visceral humours, and relocated at Durham, burying the body of St. Cuthbert there. Although by that time they had misplaced the miraculous relics of the other numinous saints that were in the island, such as Aidan and Oswald, the latter ending up at Glastonbury amongst the booty of Edmund's raiding in Northumberland in the 930s. So by this time, you might be detecting an ironic subtext in my historical gloss, and be wondering how it is that the body was that of Saint Cuthbert? Simple: in the presence of, amongst others, Simeon, the stone catafalque was opened in the middle of the 12th century, and found to contain, besides an incorrupt body (a fairly common miracle in the era, when there were a lot of dead saints, all of them miraculously incorrupt) and more importantly, a stole and prayer book of seventh century provenance. Now, pause for a second to savour the image of heavily-thewed monks, fleeing in panic from the Holy Isle, with a stone catafalque on their shoulders. Slosh, slosh, slide thump comes the noise inside the catafalque, as the ancient book slides free with every step. "Father Abbot," says a monk, "Can we stop and put the relics of St. Cuthbert in something . . . more suitable?" "Flee, flee, like your lives depend upon it," answers the Father Abbot. Well, here's another problem: if you say "book" and you say "Lindisfarne," chances are that you will think of the Lindisfarne Gospels, a beautiful text of the Eighth Century, but with a dedication, apparently two centuries later (that is, the 930s or so). That dedication is to the brothers of the Priory of Lindisfarne, and "to the saints that are in that isle." "But wait!" You say. "You said that the Priory was abandoned!" And I did say that. But not really. Like the Holy Isle of Iona, Lindisfarne was abandoned in a way that didn't actually empty it of monks. Lindisfarne was still a holy place, a monastic place, in the Twelfth Century, when Simeon of Durham was writing. Specifically, it was a Benedictine house, subject to Durham. As far as we know, Simeon himelf was a novitiate there. (There's an argument about a charterbook that lists him, as to whether it gives novices from Lindisfarne or Monkswearmouth, but let that pass.) Simeon was eventually promoted --or something-- to Durham, arriving there just in time to see Cuthbert's miraculous remains excavated and revealed to the world. So when I say, "abandoned," I mean it in an interesting sense. Many monasteries are known to have been abandoned in the 9th and 10th century, usually over competing claims to their endowments. Some of those monasteries were dissolved. Others were ... well, what's the word when an army arrives with fire and sword to make it clear that the monks have decided to re-enter the secular world, possibly as high-value slaves, leaving any mobile wealth behind them? Because while some would use the word "heathen" to describe such an army, we know very well that sometimes they obeyed good Christian kings. By the twelfth century, that is, after the day of Canute and Harald Hardrada, attempts to explain the fading-away of many of the great monasteries mentioned in texts such as Bede's placed great emphasis on the role of Vikings, as opposed, say, to that of the ancestors of the kings and earls of England. It is a truth universally admitted that when Mom finds you in the kitchen with a cookie in your hand and the cookie jar broken on the floor, the temptation to point at your brother is very strong.

The basic answer is that Fantasy Hero is adaptable. Most people who play Fantasy Hero come away determined to get away from what they see as the problems of D&D. The difficulty with that approach is that the vast majority of RPGers consider the "problems" of D&D to be, in fact, its virtues. Well, good news. You can replicate the perceived strengths of the D&D experience in FH. (And I hope that that's the way that FHC goes.) And then you can build on it. Back when I was 19, I thought of what I then considered to be just about the coolest question ever: "This whole Descent into the Underearth" is the coolest thing ever! Drow and Mind Flayers and alternate universes, and heck, I guess Kou-Toans and Jermlaines, too. But what if the X-Men tried to do it?" In fact, I still think that this was a cool question. I admit that not everyone does, but I think that if I extended the range of options to Space Marines, or Mechas, or wuxia fighters, or, well, you get the picture, I would eventually draw a spark of enthusiasm from anyone but the most jaded imagination. D&D won't let you do this. It just doesn't offer the tools. That's not necessarily a bad design decision. Fantasy Hero, on the other hand, can. That was its basic design decision. Your Fantasy Hero campaign doesn't have to be able to play just like D&D, but it can be set up that way. The virtue of the system is that you can then decide that you want to stretch it in a new direction..

There's sanction, and then there's sanction. Agent1: "You. . .. you just let them go!" Agent2: "Yup." Agent1: "They broke into the Trublevanian Consulate and gave the Head of State a noogie!" Agent2: "Yup." Agent1: "You just stood there and watched while a guy wanted on twelve B&Es and two people on the DHS watchlist got into that FlyingMammalSuperminivan and drove away!" Agent1: "Yup." Agent2: "Is that all you're going to say? 'Yup?'" Agent1: "Well, it's like this." [Pulls out his phone, fires up Google Maps.] "Here's the street they drove off on. Merges with the Interstate here, but we never see them on the Interstate, right?" Agent2: "What's that got to do with it?" Agent1: "Simple. They leave the road before they hit the Interstate. So. Either right now they're turning left through traffic so they can thread their way through all the one-way streets and "Must Turn Rights" that prevent the riffraff from driving through the West Main Heights neighborhood. Or...." Agent1: "Or....?" Agent2: "They turn right." Agent1: "Into a mountain?" Agent2: "A limestone mountain, to be precise. A limestone mountain with the biggest mansion in the whole West Main Heights on the top of it." Agent1: "Like. . .. like the Batcave? What is this? A crappy TV show? That's total cliche!" Agent2: "Cliches have to come from somewhere. Now. You know who lives in that mansion. You know the name. From Senators to Congressmen to ambassadors to business executives. Heck, the wife of a President." Agent1: "I liked that President. But my uncle still sends me chain emails about him." Agent2: "Exactly. Dealing with that? Not worth our jobs. Let's just agree to be glad that someone dealt with Trublevania's habit of hiding nuclear bombs in their consulate basements, and let the Director take it further."

I thought Mi-Go procreated through mitosis? Take it from me. That doesn't actually work for people.

The Harbinger of Justice on 250 points? Seems legit.

What's a diorama?

[h=3]Postblogging 1939 Technology News, September, II: Crisis Long Deferred[/h] My Dearest Reggie: Pardon my unseemly scrawl annotating your usual. No typist, no matter how well trusted, can be allowed to see this. Catastrophe. Horror to the pit of our stomachs as we wait for the other shoe to drop. In Moscow, in Berlin, now at home. I have a phone call from Greenwich. Your son and his fiancee are overdue in the College's Lysander. I try to take hold of myself. The whole world faces crisis as we hold our breath, waiting for the Ministry to fold or for Berlin to act. Aeroplane 16 August 1939 Leader: the Lufthansa Ju 90 intercepted last week in the prohibited area over the Isle of Thanet was not spying, because the nice Germans do not do such things. The Japanese do such things. (A ludicrous story about supposed Japanese spies follows.) Yet Mr. Grey is not entirely mad, and follows up with the observation that British aircraft production capacity is certainly greater than Germany’s, at least potentially. Yet after all that he has said about the “artificial war scare,†who is going to listen to him? I ask Cousin Easton, who was aboard. He only smiles and points out that everyone aboard could take photos. Article The odious Noel Pemberton Billing, who, as you will recall, nearly did the same to me as was done to you, says that the Yankee Clipper is a quite extraordinary aeroplane. As with the leader, the choice of reporters almost makes me doubt the commonplace. Flight 17 August 1940 Leader: “Crisis Long Deferred.†On 9 August, Imperial ceased to accept new bookings for Empire routes. It only has lift for air mail. The British system has broken down. Part of this has to do with the failure of the Ensigns and the Empire boat accidents, but it is mostly due to the weight of air mail, which has increased in weight by 50% in the last twelvemonth. The ideal load of mail for an Empire boat is 2200lbs, but the contract is forcing them to fly with as much as 5500lbs, squeezing out most paying passengers, something which the paper forcefully suggests could be readily foreseen. Desperate, they wish to buy American planes, but they also need more personnel. Is there a remedy? The paper thinks so, because of course it does. The same outlandish scheme that, apparently, it has pressed for many years: a separation of the passenger and postal service. But this is already accomplished. Passengers fly KLM! The paper goes on to point out that by early next year, the Ensigns will be back in service, the ‘G†boats will be in service, and the first Flamingos may be arriving. But this will be just in time to face the Christmas mail loads. Meanwhile, Caribou and Cabot have made the first British commercial Atlantic crossings. Will there be air mail to Canada by next year? Meanwhile again, another “C†boat, Australia, has been damaged at Basra. Intended for the Tasman Sea service, it was on regular flights because of the crisis. Now, look. I am only a part-owner of a shipping line, but I would be happy to be facing a "crisis" that involved my line having more cargo to carry than it could handle. I would charter my rivals, and deliver it all! The problem here is only that there are not the rivals to charter. And how is that a problem for a business? Articles “The Air Exercises." And with reason. Last year, 900 aircraft took part. This year, the number was 1300. I find it almost impossible to imagine such a staggering number of war planes. “Westland†had 800 machines, of which almost 500 were fighters, and the remainder mostly General Reconnaissance types, although “friendly†bombers were included to test intercepting pilots’ ability to distinguish friend from foe. Under the overall command of Air Chief Marshal Hugh Dowding, it also had control of numerous barrage balloon groups and antiaircraft units. “Eastland,†under Air Chief Marshal Edgar Ludlow-Hewitt, disposed of 500 bombers of modern types. The highlight of the exercise, for me, at least, was the blackout out of the London metropolitan area on Friday. The old girl was eerie in the dark, Reggie, and engines droned overhead all night, and far out into the sleeping countryside! Bombers were coming in at any height between 100 feet and 20,000, and fighters patrolled at all heights. The paper notes several successful interceptions, but offers specific details of only two, both featuring Fairey Battles, leading me to think that the firm might do better to focus on naval needs. V.P. Hurricanes, on the other hand, were stirring sights, springing from the ground like Furies of old. Francis Chichester, “Raiding by Celestial Navigation.†You will know Chichester from his series of books covering his solo flights to Sydney, Auckland and Tokyo, using his patent(?) kneeboard navigational technique to find and land at tiny Pacific islands along the way. Chichester tells us that it is currently possible, with celestial navigation, to know the location of an aeroplane within 3 miles, or, in ideal conditions, 2. The author believes that in the near future it will be possible, with the right training, equipment and preparation for an aircraft to know its location within a mile. The implications of this is that a raid of 240 bombers, each dropping 25 250lb bombs at an interval of 50 yards square, will obliterate 4.5 square miles of a chosen target, and that any target of known location can be destroyed with “pin-prick†accuracy. The “pin-prick†in this case being the target and the four square miles surrounding it. This is rather a large pin. You know what else is larger than a pin? An aircraft that can lift 6,250lbs. The weight, although not precise details of armament, are barely within the remit of an Armstrong Whitworth Whitley, although it seems to fit well various rumoured replacements [1,2,3,4]. Our author proceeds to put into the mouth of a modern Simplicissimus the fairly obvious point that a ‘plane flying at 300mph(!) is travelling twelve miles a minute, which makes the whole matter of “within a mile†suspect. Not so! The author now stipulates a chosen plane carrying 8 trained navigators. This plane will guide another, loaded with bombs, on a truepinprick raid next week. That is, it will demolish only as much masonry as 6,000lbs of high explosive bombs can demolish. Which is still a lot of masonry. Article: Latvia has an aeroplane, which exhibits Latvia’s much vaunted efficiency, which had previously escaped my attention. Though they are, after all, related to the Finns, and as you are always telling me, Reggie, Finns make good timber men. Commercial Aviation Apart from the first Imperial/soon-to-be BOAC’s two-way crossing of the Atlantic, by “Caribou,†and news of “Cabot’s†arrival in New York, preliminary word of a Pan-American loss of a Sikorsky S-42 at Rio de Janeiro and of a cabin fire in a British Airways/soon-also-to-be-BOAC Lockheed 14 on its way to Zurich. A bit of the old Schadenfreude is had by our domestic establishment, or at least this is the conclusion I draw from their appearance ahead of notice of hull damage to Empire Boat “Australia†at Basra, which takes another 5500lbs of air mail capacity out of service. The inauguration of a London-Buenos Aires service is put off to 1943. Which, considering that we are just now flying the Atlantic would seem to be a bit of optimistic news, but, on the contrary, the Air Ministry is to being accused of breach of promise by a consortium of British firms doing business in the Argentine. Service Aviation Further details of the Fairey Albacore Torpedo/Spotting/Reconnaissance type, a “shipplane†with a Bristol Taurus engine. Said details include physical dimensions, not the point at which an Italian fleet sortieing from Taranto can expect to see Albacores launched from a British fleet sortieing from Alexandria. I would propose that biplanes would be easy meat for fleet fighters, except that the Italian navy has announced that it has no need of fleet fighters. Breda 88s, intimated in the last number now equip the Regia Aeronautica. They are said to be a new type of a “heavy fighter bomber,†the comparison being with the Breguet 690 now ordered for the army cooperation groupements of the Armee de l'Air, the Potez 690s, ordered as fighters and bombers, or the Bf110 "destroyers" of the Luftwaffe. The general impression is that the continental air forces have ordered these splendid aircraft, and are now trying to find uses for them. Almost more interesting is the picture following, as it presumably emanates from the German Air Ministry, and is captioned, “A New Bomber,†when, in fact, it shows a revised example of the Heinkel 111. The German stud seems to be foundering, although unfortunately it has produced plenty of horses already. Short Notes Western Airways has a record for commercial airlines by carrying 4,872 passengers in a single day, most of these on the Weston-Cardiff route, which has now 58 services a day. That cannot be right. Although it is the summer season, and every moment away from London in August is more precious than the next. Unfortunately, my lawyers are here, and quite angry that I met with the cousin without them. Matters, however, became quite sensitive, and, in any case, he is morbidly suspicious of Grandfather's machinations. I had not the heart to tell him that the bete noire of his childhood is a 98 year old man who needs a blanket to sit out in his garden enjoying the California sunshine. More of the same, by the way. The records of the Worshipful Company of Drovers of Rainham were found at the town guildhall [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]http://www.westsussex.info/iron-industry.shtml[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] by "Miss G.C." I imagine that our cousin could have had them removed, and left them because they send the very clear message that more compelling evidence of Great-Grandfather's imposture is pending from documents long since removed. The news left me clutching, less sure than ever that we dare force the cousin's hands by trying to close the deal with Imperial. The Earl is convinced that we (and thus Imperial) must wait and negotiate. But "Miss G. C." contemplates something, but "better that we do not know," though, if we wish to, we can go to the Land Registry for ourselves. I am afraid that the Earl burst out in some most unsuitable language at that, but "Miss G. C." was not moved. Industry News Mr. Fedan of the Vega Aircraft Company of Burbank, California, leaves the firm for Everell, of Philadelphia, which I mainly note for its advertisement of the British distributor of the “Everell single-bladed propeller,†a thing which apparently exists. (It has a counterweight on the opposite side to the single blade. One cannot imagine the practical use of the thing, but, if wanted, it is available through W. O. Shackleton in this country.) Advertisements Various firms want engines, aeroplanes and applications for situations vacant. The Economist, 19 August 1939 Leaders “The State of Civil Defence†Last weekend’s air exercises and practice blackouts in the South and Midlands show that the knockout blow is oversold, but also that ARP precautions are inadequate and that it is all the fault of government. We need legislation. “The Paradox of Prices†Under the armaments stimulus, British employment and industrial production has hit new records. However, while the recession of 1937—8 brought a downward movement in wholesale prices and with them the cost of living, so far the vigorous expansion of 1939 has brought no rise in prices. What is going on? Well, the 1935 Census of Production showed that the total value of British imports was £701 millions, while the value of industrial output of firms employing more than 10 people was £1,576 and that of agriculture 206 millions. These are certainly facts! They do not really explain the lack of inflation, however. The paper goes on. The size of Britain’s purchases abroad means that changes in prices abroad have a profound effect on price levels. When food prices fall, British consumers go on a buying spree, etc. So, finally, the paper's explanation: the price of industrial primary products is held back by the American recession, that of foodstuffs by heavy wheat crops; and of stocks by the American recession. Therefore, there is no inflation. But, wait, there is more. British wage demands are moderate because wages have not fallen from the peaks attained in the last boom, while the cost of living has fallen. From this one would conclude that the boom goes on with no sign of inflation, and no need for action. Yet, the paper concludes, all will change soon unless the Govt acts to reduce duties on imports and curtail consumer demand with taxes. If this autumn sees demands for higher wages in Britain and an American recovery, we will see (finally) inflation. And not a moment too soon! As fearful as the world has become, I cannot help a smirk. When one predicts something every week, the reader begins to suspect that what is predicted is not feared, but longed for, a divine scourge falling upon cherry red backsides. Ah, never mind, then, Reggie. Notes of the Week “The Chinese Prisoners:†The competent British authorities at Tientsin have agreed to turn over the four Chinese prisoners for trial at a local Chinese court. Now I am angry, instead, at this kowtowing to barbarians, for this amounts to turning four patriots over to the Japanese. Yet it has not appeased the Japanese, nor, in fact, has it actually been done yet. Two further pieces cover agonized vacillations in Tokyo between trade-friendly and conquest-friendly policy. “Problems of Conscription:†a clerk at a shoe factory has sued his employers on the grounds that he was sacked because liable for conscription. The paper is sympathetic to the employers (quel surprise) but thinks that Something Must Be Done, and points approvingly to a decision to allow a boy to enlist early because he was a few weeks shy of 20 and would be hard put to find a job for the next year. “The Presidential Campaign Opens.†Taft, Vanderbilt and Dewey look to be the horses to beat, “with the enigmatic figure of Mr.Hoover in the background.†Enigmatic he is, but only to those whose eyes see not. Oh, wait, no. The paper refers to his stance in the election, and not his fabled parentage and the source of his worldly good fortune. (Up by his own bootstraps, to be sure!) Never mind, then. The Democrats will probably end up nominating Roosevelt. However the vice-presidency is very much open. "In short, for the next twelve months, during a crucial period of world history, the affairs of the most powerful country in the world will , as usual, be governed by the manoeuvres of a group of prima donnas rather than by considerations of policy.†The World Overseas “New Trade Conditions in China†Are terrible. “German Price Control:†The German economy is in rough shape. “America’s Agricultural Problem†We have too many marginal farms occupied by stalwart sons and daughters of the soil who should just quit, but we will not take the basic step of getting out of the way and letting them do that. The predominant American agricultural holding is still a freehold of 1—200 acres, based on the old Homesteading Act, apparently. “Production and the Bourse:†the French index of industrial production shows us back at 100 (1928=100), compared with 83 in October of last year. This has a great deal to do with rearmament, although just how much is not clear. The automobile industry is up, for example. The French cost of living remains low, and earnings from tourism are thus high. The mystery here is that production would be still higher if private capital got into the game. But it has not, and this is reflected in a quiescent bourse. To be sure, if private capital did swing into action, skilled labour shortages would develop due to the 41 hour effective week, but it is still interesting to see those two liberal institutions, Parliament and the Stock Exchange, each sunk into torpor. Perhaps their revival will see the revival of political liberalism. “Unemployment and Defence Expenditure in Australia,†commodity prices have fallen, so you would expect a decline in business activity in Australia. But no! And the reason is the steady rise in secondary industry. An interesting indication of the way things are going is the recent placing of large orders for Australian steel by the United Kingdom. Manufacturing labour has gone up from 337,000 in 1931—32 to 559,000 in 1937—38. Three cheers for rearmament. Nevertheless, there has been an increase in unemployment in Australia. Apparently. We can’t actually measure it, though. Finance and Banking The sudden death of Dr. Fritz Mannheimer has led to the failure of the Mendelssohn banking house of Amsterdam. This is a major failure in international banking and could have serious consequences, but was not unexpected in London. Gold continues to flow out of London, while the price of silver is recovering. It has now recovered above its import price –ie it will pay to ship silver to New York and sell it to the Treasury at the Treasury’s fixed rate. This is because India regards gold as too dear and silver as too cheap at its current price. So how long can the Americans hold out at $35 oz for gold, 35 cents per oz silver last? Grandfather says long enough for one more Atlantic crossing, which is whySquirrel just docked in London, straight from Vancouver, bound for Los Angeles and then San Francisco on the turnaround. I was aboard yesterday, looking in at Grandfather's cabins, hidden down in the well deck. It left me rather melancholy. Grandfather will not sail aboard again, I think. What shall we do without his brain? What is left of the pirate spirit of our forefathers? I long for Santa Clara, but that is just longing to be out of this world. On a mad impulse, I have the household packed up. Even if I cannot be California bound, I might spend the fall in the country. Aeroplane 23 August 1939 In addition to the forgettable leader, Grey offers an article on “Super-National Socialism.†Grey appears to quite like Hitler and Fascism, but is not sold on all of the incidental “government regulation†to which it leads. He objects to the commonplace that this is rather what national socialism is about, and finishes with the definitive point that, if it were, our roadway speed limits would be Fascism, and lead to Hitlerism. It honestly does the heart good to see this terrible old man reduced to filling out his editorial pages with puffery. Article “A Troop Carrying Exercise.†The RAF recently did a trooping exercise. Aeroplane's version of F. de Vere Robertson, C. M. McAleery, gives us a history of the long and noble history of trooping in the RAF. Apparently, it has been the fashion of recent years to send troops of the Chitral garrison by air. Uncategorised notes: Japan has bought the DC-4. Hopefully they have more luck with it than Douglas. [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nakajima G5N, Wikipedia[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Flight, 24 August 1939 Editorial: The Air Exercises were an exercise, not a manoeuvre. One cannot draw conclusions about the success or lack of it by Eastland or Westland in defending or attacking. But Dowding, commander of the defence, did sound cautiously optimistic, and that’s a good thing in this day and age. He holds that, given the way in which the fighter proved its ascendancy over bombers that it could intercept, that better interception must lead to victory for the defence. Exactly how it was demonstrated that fighters were in the ascendant over bombers, the paper would like to know. The whole experience suggested the way that constant harrying by fighters and antiaircraft guns can lead to bombers dropping their loads on unimportant places, and thus, presumably, on unimportant people. The recent exercise using 6 Bombays to lift 120 troops fell ludicrously short of the mark. “Although we should not omit to mention the steel helmets and rifles which, the newspaper observers emphasized, were carried with them. Presumably the machine guns followed separately, by boat or by train.†We need to order more, newer, larger transport machines. The air mail weight issue is getting to the point where we might need to reconsider carrying air mail overland. Article: the editor puts on his reportage cap to talk about the Asboth Helicopter. So it appears that both Flight and Aeroplane have had articles spiked this week. Service Aviation “Where the Baffins went.†A considerable number of the Fleet Air Arm’s Blackburn Baffins have been transferred to New Zealand, where they frequently fly by particularly picturesque mountains. It is good to know that the Empire has something in reserve if the Maoris start making trouble again. Our newest aircraft carrier, Formidable, takes to the water. Articles Miles Henow, “With a Queen Bee Flight.†The Queen Bee, as you may know, is the radio-guided, self-piloting target aircraft which is used to trained AA gunners. It is emphasized that in spite of the simplicity of the concept, the engineering of the Queen Bee’s radiocontrols was a work of twenty years, and the technology will likely be a British preserve for considerable time to come. This seems to me to sell Johnny Foreigner rather short, and I wondered aloud at lunch as to why such vehicles are not outfitted with facsimile transmitters to take over the army’s photographic reconnaissance work, which led your son to enlighten me on the subject of the radio spectrum at some length. Francis Chichester, “Raiding by Celestial Navigation, II.†The 8 navigators in the specially-selected plane are guiding two mammoth bombers on this particular raid, which is to destroy a “castle†where the enemy high command has chosen to gather, presumably in the interest of playing fair with the RAF and giving its scientific navigators a refreshing workout. As we old naval men would expect, there is much here about dead-reckoning navigation, and the latest ‘computers’ that assist in this work, but the real horror here is literally pages of spherical trigonometry ensues. Chichester intends to allow that with very precise celestial navigation, it is, indeed, possible, for the RAF to dump 6 short tons of bombs on some isolated Alpine schloss where a certain Reichschancellor has gathered with a select group of his most intimate advisors to put the final details on their nefarious plans. Whether it is possible for a cohort of trained navigators to do a continuous series of exacting calculations and celestial observations while flying over the night-time sky of a Europe at war is entirely another matter. It was hard enough on the bridge of a destroyer, which, for all the monstrous machinations of Rattler's quadruple-expansion engines, was at least not suspended between two (four?) internal combustion engines doing their best to shake themselves to pieces. I glance quickly through the numbers sometimes, so do not precisely recall a review, or some such, of a book about night bombing (of England, of course) in which the enemy, perhaps more plausibly, uses a Norden bombsight-type device to navigate his way to the target. Does that ring a bell? "The new Chilton trainer" (which is not a trainer in the sense of having been ordered by the Air Ministry) has “fighter-like†performance. Are you paying attention, Air Commodore Buy-the-Lot? A. Viator’s Croydon column reports that North-Eastern Airways is now flying fresh salmon down from Scotland for supper-time consumption. The inference being that there is someone in London this August who could afford air-mailed salmon. We really are in a world crisis. Also, a South African in London on business whose small daughter is suffering from whooping cough hires a de Havilland to take her up, because an hour at 10,000ft cures whooping cough now? I suppose that it will dry out the throat and nasal passages, and is so worth a try, but it reads a little oddly at first blush. Commercial Aviation The two designated Tasman boats are now working up in Auckland for the proposed 27 August opening of the air mail service between the two antipodean dominions. Speaking of our piratical ancestors. . . Although the Founder was not ostensibly in New Zealand on a pirate's mission. Extending the dominion of science and Enlightement, blather blather. No mention of certain cargoes of a Manila galleon that needed a generation's ripening. . . . Another British Airways Lockheed, this a 10A, has been lost to a cabin fire. This was a rather more serious episode than the first, for the 4 passengers lost their lives, one of whom was A.C. Crossley, M.P. [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]A 1920 Crossley, via Wikipedia.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Many important persons are winging their way about Europe (and the world) this summer, for the usual reasons. And given the flap over the Lufthansa Ju90 and the Zeppelin last month, perhaps unusual ones, too. The Isle of Scilly now has an aerodrome, whereas before, air tourists landed on the village green or the cricket pitch, or,as the locals used to like to explain to people from down east, "Sod off, none of your business" " ." The “Challenger†Empire Boat accident in Mozambique is explained. The pilot tried to land short, and then to abort the landing, resulting in the ‘boat bouncing off the surface and coming to rest in shallow water. It was the fault of “gross error†on the part of the pilot. More quotation marks. Indicator’s column is on the need for better radio D/F equipment and receivers for civilian planes, which will let them make full use of radionavigation aids and ground weather reports. More Articles “Baltic Training Station;†an odd article on the training station of the German coastal flying force. There are pictures of biplane Heinkel numbers, rather odd considering that German engineering is poised to drive all British industry into the sunset momentarily. “Largest in the World: Air Minister inspects New Drop Hammer.†Made in Erie, Penn, it is being installed in the new High Duty Alloys shop at Redditch. Since as much as 70% of a modern aircraft may be made of light alloys, High Duty Alloys has vast responsibilities in rearming the RAF and forwarding the air age generally. Which it does with this American-made machine. “Minimising Fire Risks.†The new Graviner methyl-bromide in-flight fire suppression system is Air Ministry approved and British-made. A very timely article given the British Airways tragedy. Needless to say, it is not on Lockheeds. Short Notes Captain Rickenbacker was photographed touring the Bristol engine works. Of course he was. Would Captain Rickenbacker even exist without the news photographers? Beard and Fitch has been cutting all types of gears for 58 years, and is now doing so from a brand-new London facility. This news story has been brought to you by Beard and Fitch, sponsors of Flight and other fine aviation industry advertising delivery systems, navigating their way to your purchasing office with pin-prick accuracy. Situations Vacant Many ads, over many pages, but I note in particular that the Air Inspectorate Division has vacancies for suitable candidates. Let me underline this. The Ministry of Aviation has an entire department charged with ensuring the safety of aviation-related equipment. Not unreasonably, the inspectors are experienced plant engineers, because this is what the task demands. If the AID is advertising for more, it is because inexperienced men are being left to do the work. Now, I am not adverse to the idea of this insofar as military aircraft are concerned. Service pilots get their flight pay and Ministry life insurance on the pretext of the risks they are taking. And if there are risks, so too are there young men getting a look into a situation in life that they would otherwise not get. We were talking about the "Family Allowance" controversy at lunch just before I mused about this story, and “Miss G. C.†drew out the conclusion that I was ambling towards, quoting Miss Austen's famous line about every man possessed of a fortune being in want of a wife. [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]*[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] What concerns me, in the wake of all the recent accidents, is the civilians entrusting themselves to the air on the assurance of the Air Ministry. It is, of course, the case that we have AID, whereas the United States, where Lockheed makes its planes, lacks even an Air Ministry, never mind an AID, but what difference if the AID's inspectors do not know their work? The Economist, 26 August 1939 (I am glad I have left some space here to scribble. After recovering from the initial news from Greenwich, it finally occurred to me to wonder that your son had had the Lysanderprepared by removing the exhaust gas analysers removed. These are installed in detachable underwing containers intended to carry stretcher cases from aid stations back to the field hospitals. So I called at Cousin Easton's lodgings, only to find that both he and Fat Chow were unavailable. A palpable relief. But what are these children up to? Pardon my scratched writing. I am being driven down to Squirrel. We will sail on the tide. The Earl can handle Imperial.) Leaders “Double Cross Roads:†Stupid fucking Soviet communists. I paraphrase like a sailor, because the paper speaks for all of us. Either Chamberlain folds again, or there is to be war. “Agenda for Preparedness –IX,†“Industrial Man Power.†The basic war time labour problem is to do more work with fewer men. We are going to absorb 6 million into the armed forces over two years. The paper assumes that there will be war, as Grandfather has warned. The rest will have to maintain war production and production for export and consumption. The unions will have to put up with dilution. “The Panama Canal’s Jubilee." The Panama Canal exists. Because we are old, we remember when it did not. “Political Patchwork in Spain;†Spain will not join the Axis. There will be no railway strike, and the paper objects to the idea, because it should be the worst paid union, not the best paid, which threatens to strike, however, there being no money in the business, neither railway union should strike, and the fact that they are not paid a living wage must be accepted as one of those regrettable eventualities of modern life. Which strikes me as a short-sighted perspective in the face of an emerging labour shortage. It is almost as though the pre-emptive measures that must be taken to defeat inflation in the future will depress wages now . One would almost imagine that there was someone, somewhere, with a certain influence at the editorial pages of The Economist,who might benefit from depressed wages. But whoever could that be? Tokyo and the Nonagression Pact: Talks over money and Tientsin have been broken off, the the legal hold on the surrender of the four fugitive to “Chinese†justice has been dismissed. Tokyo is in pathetic, frantic retreat. Never mind, because like the pack of wild dogs that they are, they will regain their courage later, Grandfather says, and all of the money we have strewn about San Francisco Bay will come back to us in the form of Navy Department contracts. There is a decline in housing starts, with the fall in private building so sharp that it has not been compensated by public housing starts. The paper discerns a rise in building for let in the London market, which might be thought of as a search for new markets, and notes that of the 4 million houses built in England and Wales (representing a 50% increase in the total) 2 million are occupied by their owners. “The Flight of the Refugees†continues. For the one thing that Germany needs as it prepares itself for war is to rid itself of as many top flight people as it can. The World Overseas “Poland’s Monetary Problems†The economic life of Poland to-day is dictated by the needs of defence. I imagine so. The country lacks the reserves that richer countries have used to fund rearmament, and the country has resorted to the Air Defence Loan, which required coercion in spite of the enthusiasm with which it was met, and is limited in its effect by the fact that it can be used to pay taxes. It was with this monetary strain in mind that Poland sent an emissary to London to ask for the transfer of £5 million of gold. Some sense of the extent of the “monetary strain†is suggested by the rapid increase in the money circulation, from 1,417 million zlotys on 30 June 1937 to 2,328 on 30 June 1939. This, you would think, would lead to inflation, but in fact people have been hoarding bills for years, and recently started hoarding silver coins, with the result that there’s few bills and no small change in Warsaw. I humbly suggest that even in its direst straits, France was only afflicted with peasants hoarding bullion. When your citizens are hoarding bank notes. . . . As our correspondent says. “There are also a number of factors that suggest that the production policy followed in Poland has not been as expansive as it might have been.†All the indices of prices and the cost of living have fallen since the end of 1937, and the index of production is only up to 126.8 (100 in 1928) in spite of enormous possibilities for development. Production is down at many domestic manufacturers, and unemployment, at 456,000 is not much changed from the depression period. (470,000 in 1937). In the state of the banking system, it has been impossible to develop new private industry in Poland. The State takes too much money, interest rates are distorted, and until almost the end of the great depression, Poland’s policy was explicitly deflationary, trying to get the zloty at the level fixed in 1927. And when this course was abandoned, it was not devalue, but to introduce exchange controls. Formal devaluation, it was thought, would just lead to the peasants abandoning the zloty. Poland may devalue in the Fall, though. You know what? Sod the lot! We would not care about the sordid "everything for therentier" money politics of Poland were it not for the fact that Warsaw is our last remaining potential ally on the Eastern Front. Poland may devalue in the Fall. Much more likely, it will be at war in the Fall, and it will regret every bit of potential work left undone in the years of peace in the furtherance of those policies. Those are the years the locust ate. Think on that when the Boche come to call. [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chasseurs polonais avant! Apologies.[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] “French Economic Strength:†Spectacular progress has been made in production of iron and steel, and of automobiles, too. This is down above all to the government’s turn to short-term instead of long-term borrowing markets. The national debt was 44,0000 million in June, an increase of 4,500 millions on 31 May and 23,500 millions on January 1st. In short, the workers are working overtime, the peasants are favoured by high agricultural prices, and those who can save have discovered new possibilities of building up their reserves. … the Treasury’s ready money was 16 thousand millions, and the calmness of the country has encouraged the current of returning gold and subscriptions to bonds. “Hongkong’s Trade and the War:" Hong Kong is suffering from the Japanese noose, especially as compared with the glorious days of last year, when the Japanese blockaded the Yangzi and Hong Kong became the entrepot of central China via the Canton-Hankow railway. The occupation of Canton in 1938 ended that to an extent, but there were many holes in the blockade at first. Things are getting tighter, but Hong Kong consoles itself that in spite of Britain’s disgusting supineness, Japan is reaching the limits of its strength, and that “ .†I hope. . . . Investment The Bank of England discount rate has been doubled from 2 to 4%. This is not to say that the day of cheap money and the new British monetary system is over. The move was needed in the light of the current crisis. British Industry I note coverage of the annual Radialympics. The radio firms have had disappointing years, profit-wise. Where is the new growth to come from? Television, obviously, but commercialization is lagging and disappointing here. Receivers need to get significantly cheaper. Perhaps some large customer will make a large order, and drive the costs of production down. Industry and Trade What has been going on for the last year? Well, it turns out that purchasing power is up, and people have been buying. There is an agreement to do away with 60,000 redundant looms in cotton country. Eire’s wheat production is falling due to a sharp rise in in agricultural labour wages. The herring season in Scotland is off to a bad start. (Hah! Did I predict this, or not?) Tin stocks are down. Aeroplane 30 August 1939 Leader: we need bombers. Especially if there’s going to be a war. Which there won’t. It’s all contrived by foreigners and the owners of the world’s gold, who are afraid that it won’t hold its value if war unleashes the power of credit. What? Flight 31 August 1939 Leader: “What Stands if Freedom Falls?†Article: “Higher Commands of the Royal Air Force.†The men who will lead the RAF in war are announced. The Chief of the Air Staff is ACM Newall, an Indian Army man via the Royal Warwickshires, so I assume Sandhurst or even a militia promotion. Perhaps ambition will count for more than brains, and admittedly he is of the same breed as Trenchard. Fighter Command is under Dowding, a Royal Artillery man who passed out of Staff College in 1914. A Woolwich brain, then, though not quite of RE calibre. Bomber Command’s Ludlow-Hewitt is another infantry man, Royal Irish Rifles. Coastal Command’s Air Marshal Bowhill, on the other hand, is of a naval background, fleet, rather than the reservists who populated a large portion of the early Royal Naval Air Service. At Group we have Playfair, another RA man, Coningham, a New Zealander, and Calloway, an old navy man who has served aboard Furious, Saul, an old Army Service Corps man who has commanded the School of Army Co-operation, Breese, a fellow RN (E) man, Gossage, another gunner, Leigh-Mallory, yet another School of Army Co-operation head, and, recently, Thomson, killed in a ground accident just after war was declared. The commander of the air expeditionary force is not named. Article: Chichester, “Raiding by Celestial Navigation,†III. Remember the pages of spherical trigonometry from the last number? They have got us all the way to ‘Enemy Territory.’ Now we must find our target, with even more pages of mathematics. Frankly, if the Norden Bombsight wants to take this job away from me, I, for one, will not protest the loss of employment. Commercial Aviation : the New Zealand link is almost complete. By which is meant that the promised late-August service is postponed indefinitely due to fleet shortages, and KLM may soon receive a contract relating to the Christmas air mail to Australia. If there is to be a Christmas air mail, which I doubt. More likely, the only mail going by air will be in the form of microfiches of blueprints of war materiels. Pan American has sent a Yankee Clipper on a pathfinding flight to Auckland. Service and Foreign News Germany has a new machine gun, too! It’s the Knott-Bremse. Although the news is actually that K-B Tecknik’s unsuccessful gun has been bought in a modified form by the Swedes. I may be in a fay mood, but I read this as a reply to the recent article about the new Vickers gun. France gets its first Douglas DB-7. “The Aircraft Engineer†covers “Airscrew Diameters and Gear Ratios." Letters An anonymous correspondent recently returned from a period in Berlin notes the aerial contrast. Whereas in Berlin it is hard at the moment to see any aircraft at all apart from a few elderly Ju52s at Templehof, the skies over the south of England are crowded with aeroplanes, with "mystery planes" whizzing about in all directions at every hour of the day. Very well, then. The runner who has saved his wind sees the finish line. But has he held on too long? (Page over, please, Reggie) Hove too at a certain place. Ciphered W/T with the Earl, who just had a visit from the Yard concerning a midnight altercation at a Thanet home on a longterm lease from his cousins.Now I remember that place, riding the drove path [TABLE=align: center] [TR] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]From Britain from the Air, the absolutely awesome online gallery of Aerofilm aerial photoraphs of Britain from before 1955[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] that pointed straight towards Tenterden. No doubt it is still visible from the air. Was it leased even then? Apparently, a party of lascars trespassed onto the premise, and there is a complaint from the landlord. Shots were heard, dogs barked, that a 'plane, even, was heard to take off. Some lascars! Papers are missing, and a girl. The Earl inquired as to whether it was seriously proposed that a peer of the realm was involved in white slavery? The Yard retreats in confusion, and the Earl writes to Imperial, offering to close to-morrow. I write as I wait for a boat, barely visible in the gloom, coming towards Squirrel. If you receive this before you see me, you will know that all is well, for I entrust this letter into the hands of Fat Chow. I wish that you could have been there to see that little boat emerge from the murk, a yellow dress on an oar in lieu of an ensign, that I should know that I have now to pick up two passengers in need of a discreet lift to Hongkong, with a load of ledger books, antique legalities having to do with rotating sheep. Terribly tedious. I am doing any barrister so unfortunate as to attempt to discover them a favour by

Yeah, well, you'll regret calling me a jerk when the workplace safety inspectors show up and lock down the Superjet. I told you guys I needed more leg room. I have bursitis!

Itwasn'tme. Can someone cover my shifts on the weekend? It's my son's birthday on Friday, I have an important family function on Saturday, and flugelhorn lessons on Sunday. I'll totally make it up to you.

For additional fun, have each member of the party be an Internal Security plant in their respective order --from different factions of IntSec, of course. I'm sure that such things exist in Alpha Complex. Er, I mean the magical kingdom of Lootaria.

At this point, I'm thinking people are really going to have to start thinking outside the box to make an impression at the State Fair with a deep fryer. Just, you know, think of the craziest food possible, and deep fry it. Some suggestions: --Hardboiled eggs --porridge --octopus Crazy enough to work?

Durkon is, by his own words, no more evil than Belkar. Make of that what you will...

Tarquin has lost control of events, made enemies left, right, and centre, and generally disintegrated before our eyes. No, I don't think that there's going to be a TPK. I'm going to speculate that, over the next twenty-four hours, the Empire of Blood is going to go the way of Azure City, but from the "shallow end of the alignment pool." I just can't quite visualise the events that will put the denouement off long enough for Vaarsuvius, Sabine and Durkon's spell list to come back into play. But I'm sure that it will happen. So, since I've said it, I'm going to turn out to be wrong.

Uhm, nobody? Or, rather, Egyptians acting as non-state ordered peoples? http://www.griffith.ox.ac.uk/gri/2nibbie.pdf The core of Egyptian state power was in Upper Egypt, specifically at the top of the great S curve at Thebes, where the Nile roughly intercepts the Forty Day Road -the western oasis route up from the Sudan. Lower Egypt was always a disruptive element. But what do we mean by 'Lower Egypt?' From the Iron Age, the vast Nile Delta has been well-controlled and enormously productive, and Greek tourists saw a state centred on the axis from the tip of the fan at modern Cairo down to Alexandria. The role of iron-bladed shovels and iron axes in taming the wild flooding of the Nile should be clear in this. Before the Iron Age, the Delta was surely even wilder than its seaward margins still are today. Pioneering scholar Alessandra Nibbi sometimes took her theories to extremes, but she satisfactorily demonstrated that the aquatic wilderness of islands and turbulent waters that the Ancient Egyptians called the "Great Green" could be identified with the untamed Delta, as well as with the Mediterranean Sea beyond. (In all fairness, it would have been very unclear to Ancient Egyptian seafarers where, exactly, the boundary between the two actually was, and a voyage from Memphis to Beirut through coastal waters might not pass in any very obvious way from one ecological zone to the next.) Now, we also know that the Egyptians had continual problems with "Libyans" and "Asiatics" invading Lower Egypt. The "Sea Peoples" appeared in Egypt in the context of an alliance of "Asiatics, Libyans, and People of the Sea." But consider that the Delta literally stretches from Asia to Libya in the Egyptian imagination. (That is, Egyptian "Libya" is not the distant, modern country, but the desert on the western flank of the Nile, while "Asia" is Sinai and the Levant.) There is winter pasture in the desert on either flank of the great Delta, and summer pasture in the Delta. So we hold with the systems collapse model of the Late Bronze Age Crisis see the People of the Sea as another element (there is an ideological/cosmological rhetoric here to be considered as well, but never mind that for now) within a rising population of non-state peoples living outside Egyptian government in a pastoral economy oriented around seasonal migrations between desert and delta.

Oh, good Lord, man. Look at the paper. They're implying an explosive charge made of a purified atomic isotope! How are you going to isolate one isotope from the next with this level of purity? Batteries of centrifuges? Is the expense of doing this worth the effort? And what if intermediary products of the fission change stop the chain reaction? Chemical engineers will tell you all of the world's problems could be solved by swapping one molecule for another. The problem lies in finding a practicable route to synthesis. Bombs full of radio-active isotopes would be more practical, but at this point I have to wonder why we do not just resort to phosgene.