NFL 2023

[Cancer]

Some 3rd party comments about all that

[Old Man]

17 minutes ago, Cancer said:

Some 3rd party comments about all that

 

You know, you have to be quite a scumbag to make Russell Wilson the sympathetic figure by comparison.

[unclevlad]

6 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

You know, you have to be quite a scumbag to make Russell Wilson the sympathetic figure by comparison.

 

The player can demand a contract be changed in his favor, or a trade, and there's...not much backlash.  At least not the first time.

 

The organization can't demand the same without getting excoriated.

 

Karma's biting BOTH sides here, IMO.  Yeah, there's more blame to pass around than there is snow covering the Rockies right now, IMO, and will continue to be until both Payton and WIlson are gone.  Which may well be sooner rather than later.  Wilson's gone, that's clear.  Payton...he'll survive this year, but I give it 50-50 right now that he's fired by the end of next season.  I understand the Broncos' benching him...they bought promises that turned into lies.  They're cutting their losses as much as they can.  They're just not doing it very well.

 

And yeah, Payton comes across badly too.  The ex-jocks can downplay it all they like, but I give them zero credibility on anything like this.  That's a defense mode for them.  Even if we accept that it's not a Bad Thing, Payton's demeanor on the sidelines is ugly, nasty, and petty...oh, it can't be HIS fault!!!  Yeah?  Who decided to start the game with an onside kick against the Raiders?  

 

And now I wouldn't be surprised if the organization's cut their own throat with future free agents, which suggests turnaround is at least a couple years away, and why, right now, I think Payton likely will be gone no later than the end of the 2025 season.

[Pariah]

That would be firing the wrong Payton. The one who needs to go is George Paton, who engineered the $245M extension sight unseen. 

 

And once Russell Wilson is out, Jerry Jeudy needs to be on the bus right after him. 

[unclevlad]

I'll agree with firing George...ASAP.  Especially for botching the Wilson exit as much as the contract.

 

But Sean's tenure's been really negative.  I'm also making the prediction on the basis that the next 2 years, Denver's very likely to have losing records.  Losing record, negative perceptions, and oh, let's throw in, not generating the success HIS contract suggests?  Ta-ta.

[Pariah]

According to CBS Sports, the Browns are the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs with four different quarterbacks making multiple starts. 

[Old Man]

1 hour ago, Pariah said:

According to CBS Sports, the Browns are the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs with four different quarterbacks making multiple starts. 

 

I would have liked the narrative of the Browns making the playoffs with a bunch of castoff quarterbacks.  But one of those quarterbacks is a sex offender, and team ownership was only too happy to give the sex offender many millions of dollars.  So I hope they lose.

[unclevlad]

The whole QB situation has to be priority #1 for the competition committee this offseason.  I don't know what they can do, but the numbers are just terrible.  This is the best story I could find:

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/12/11/23997145/quarterback-injuries-justin-herbert-trevor-lawrence-joe-burrow

 

It's dated 11 December, so it's already out of date on its stats.

 

Quote

Through the first 14 weeks of the season, there have already been 55 different starting quarterbacks. And that number will almost certainly jump next week with Easton Stick taking over for Herbert in L.A. and with Josh Dobbs getting benched in Minnesota.

<snip>
It would be easier to overlook this if we were just seeing a random spike in QB injuries this season. But that isn’t the case. In 2022, 69 different quarterbacks started a game, setting an NFL record for a non-strike season. And that number has been on the rise every year since 2018, per Pro Football Reference. This is looking more like a trend—a troubling one that has diluted the product during the regular season and figures to have a big impact on the upcoming playoffs. And if it isn’t already on the radar of the league office, it should be very soon. In order to tackle the problem, the NFL will have to ask and answer two questions: Why is this trend happening? And even after essentially rewriting the rule book 15 years ago to keep QBs from taking dangerous shots to their heads and knees, is there more the league can do to reverse it?

 

A third question the Browns and Flacco raise:  what can be done to give a backup QB a better chance to succeed?  

 

Some numbers.  Base info here:
https://www.footballdb.com/stats/qb-seasons.html

 

Then I trimmed out the team's intended starters, leaving

 

 

15 x 32 is 480....so over 25% of all games have been started by a backup.  Week 16, I believe it's 14 of the 32...which is over 40%.  OK, one of em's Wilson, which is a different situation, but one can argue that's countered by the fact that Rodgers started a game, so a wash.  Doesn't really change the overall, either.  It's also interesting to note:
4 starters:  CLE, LV, MIN, NYJ

3 starters:  ARI, NYG, PIT

 

Some of this is just saying the backups are terrible, but others are multiple QBs knocked out.  

 

I'll offer up this:  offenses are generally too complex for the players to properly execute...not enough time to get the system down, free agency causing lower familiarity levels, imbalanced offense/too many teams lacking legit run threats, one can argue the factors.  The results, especially through the middle parts of the season, were self-evident...offense is WAY down.  Inflexible OCs might be another, particularly with the backup QBs.

EDIT:  secondary point.  Even if you watch a lot of pro and college football...how many of those names make you go....WHO?  Or go...they're still in the league???  They're TERRIBLE!!  (e.g. Lock, Siemien, Trubisky.)

[Pariah]

Hey, let's not be too harsh on Trevor Siemian. He's the last Broncos starting quarterback with a winning record, you know.

[Cygnia]

4 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

I would have liked the narrative of the Browns making the playoffs with a bunch of castoff quarterbacks.  But one of those quarterbacks is a sex offender, and team ownership was only too happy to give the sex offender many millions of dollars.  So I hope they lose.

Yeah, I'm horrified about the lessons not learned by Haslam if the Browns actually do well.  And, given how previous QBs got screwed, I worry for Flacco...

[unclevlad]

Under the circumstances, Flacco's doing just fine.  It's only a contract for this season, the scale is...quite decent, considering.  And remember, he's 39.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/joe-flacco-salary-contract-nfl-2023/

 

Plus, Flacco got his mega deal from the Ravens, after the SB win.  For 9 years, he was averaging about $20M a year, so he can't really get hosed now.  

 

WOW.  That got me thinking...compare 2015 QB numbers to 2023...

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/2015

 

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/2023

 

The cap numbers have gone up, but the BIG increase is in the cash spent.  We're only talking 8 years here, too.

[unclevlad]

Oh sweet mother of technicalities....

 

Lions drive *smoothly* all the way down to a TD to make it 20-19.  Campbell goes for 2...it's a pass to a lineman in the TE spot.  It works.

 

But that lineman, according to the refs...did not report.  Or someone didn't.  Among other formation issues, according to the ESPN rules maven there.

 

A second try, the Cowboys are offsides.

 

THIRD try...fails.  

 

I liked going for it the first time.  Not sure about the 2nd...it was from the 7.  DON'T like going for it the 3rd time.  Going for it immediately after the drive, the defense is off balance...but tries that fail?  Tend to let them get their balance back.  

 

It could've worked, but my gut feeling is the percent chance of the 2 point try working, goes DOWN on those later reps in the same possession.  Plus, the Lions started with their preferred calls and have to be moving down as it went along.

 

SO close.  Cowboys 20, Lions 19.

 

EDIT:  huh, surprise.  ESPN gets 2 games Saturday in week 18.  I may well have forgotten, but...I didn't think they did any of those.  The games were largely kept into tight windows, with little/no chance that a result in the early slot would render an afternoon game meaningless.  I presume that principle will still hold...which may well mean at least one *dog* of a game...Pats-Jets, probably Broncos-Raiders, maybe Bears-Packers.  Also, Falcons-Saints may mean loser's out...but the Tampa Bay result will still matter.  

It's kinda crazy that ONLY 4 teams from each conference have been eliminated with just 2 games left.

[Old Man]

25 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

I liked going for it the first time.  Not sure about the 2nd...it was from the 7.  DON'T like going for it the 3rd time.  Going for it immediately after the drive, the defense is off balance...but tries that fail?  Tend to let them get their balance back

 

Are teams even allowed to switch back to the extra point kick once they actually make a 2-point try?  It seems like it would be a bit of a loophole.

[Grailknight]

10 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

Are teams even allowed to switch back to the extra point kick once they actually make a 2-point try?  It seems like it would be a bit of a loophole.

 

Yes, you can switch back. The penalty would still be applied, and the kick would be that much longer.

[slikmar]

As my brother pointed out, Dallas has a good defense and if the coach had kicked field goals earlier instead of going on 4ths they probably win. Also, ESPN just showed the lion's offensive lineman who caught the "winning" 2 point conversion who was then called for not reporting....go stand next to a refereee and talk to him...the ref was looking away and ignored him. One of those microphones caught him saying I am eligible.

[unclevlad]

The league is going to look at that play and talk to the refs, because at the very least, the optics are REALLY bad/confused.

 

Campbell's aggressive.  Yeah, fine, kicking the FG early on, with the 4th and goal at the 4?  Maybe.  Going for the TD has to work 3 times in 7...call it 40%.  Is it 40% to score from the 4, in one play?  I doubt it...particularly when it's 4th down, and the defense knows it's end zone or bust.  Most runs are off the table;  from the 4, there's time to react.  So I can't see 40%...and therefore, kick.

 

By the same token, I don't think it's seriously wrong to go for it.  Short field goals let the defense off the hook...I firmly believe they're a losing tactic, long term.  But they can still be the best option given the specifics.  4th and 1?  Go for it, IF you have the offensive options to do it.  Some teams are *terrible* at short yardage;  that's a factor to me, but one the stats probably don't consider.

[unclevlad]

Early scan through the scoreboard while watching the very interesting Fins-Ravens game....

 

C.J. Stroud is back, and the Texans are *rolling* the Titans right now.  20-0.

Beginning to wonder if maybe Carolina's finally packed it in?  9-0 Jacksonville right now, without Lawrence.  Carolina offense has been non-existent...19 plays, 28 yards.  If nothing else, figure the OC is gone in 9 days.  Titans' offense was similarly inept...I saw a QB change already, but not why.  Ah...there it is.  Talk about insult AND injury.  Levis gets sacked, loses the ball, it's a scoop and score for the Texans...AND he's taken off with a foot injury.

 

EDIT:  Lamar Jackson may be slamming the door on anyone else for MVP.  First half so far...

10/11, 219 yards, 2 TDs;  2 rushes for 24 yards.

 

21-13 Ravens so far.  

 

Hey, what's going on????  BACK TO BACK interesting TV games???????????  Happy New Year to us!!!

 

 

[Pariah]

Look, I don't care about San Francisco and the Commies. Nobody does. Show us all the Chicago / Atlanta snow game, please.

[Starlord]

The Baltimore Ravens seem to be pretty good at American football this year.

[unclevlad]

<jaw drops>

 

Arizona 35, Eagles 31

 

Cards score 29 (!!!!!!!) second half points.  4 second-half possessions, 4 TDs...all 4, 70+ yards.

 

Yeah, the Eagles are in *deep* trouble overall.  That defense is getting shredded.

 

Niners win.  Ravens win.  Both #1 seeds now clinched.

EDIT:  yeah, the Ravens flat out told the AFC...the road to the Super Bowl goes through us.  Good luck with that.

 

EDIT 2:  CBS studio guys pointed out...the Eagles loss suddenly made the Detroit/Dallas outcome, and the mess of the 2 point play, HUGELY!!!!! significant.
DALLAS is the current #2 seed, Detroit #3, and Philly #5.

That 2 point play stands?  Detroit is #2, SF does NOT clinch the #1 seed, Philly is #3, Dallas is #5.

 

[Pariah]

Re: the Dolphins

 

Miami has now scored 50 or more in a game (against the hapless Broncos) and allowed 50 or more in a game (against the number one seed Ravens) in the same season. I wonder how often that has happened.

[Pariah]

Gosh darn it to Heck!

 

Based on the map I saw yesterday, we're supposed to be seeing Broncos vs. Chargers. But we're actually seeing Chefs vs. Bungles.  

 

Farging bastiges. 

[unclevlad]

You're in Utah, right?

 

The 506Sports map shows Colorado, most of New Mexico (but not here), a bit of Arizona, and LA and San Diego only.

 

WILD.  12 of 16 games done;  the only team eliminated so far is the Raiders.  AFC South has 3 teams at 9-7.  NFC South has TB and NO at 8-8, with ATL at 7-9...but NOT eliminated, so they have to have the tiebreaker if there's a 3-way tie...ATL beats NO, and somehow Carolina beats TB, then ATL, NO, and TB are all 8-9.

My, my...Cincy and KC is getting....chipppppyyyyy......  This is a huge game, too.  KC needs it bad, to stop their skid;  Cincy might be eliminated if they lose.  

[Old Man]

Bah.  The Bungles deserved a better season than this.

[unclevlad]

8 minutes ago, Old Man said:

Bah.  The Bungles deserved a better season than this.

 

Debatable.  Expected?  I'd buy that......

 

KC pulls a double KO, tho...Cincy and Denver are both eliminated.

 

And the Rams are showing as in, so even if they lose, they have to have the tiebreakers in any possible 9-8 multi-way tie.  EDIT:  correction...they come in no worse than 2nd in any tie break setup.