Marvel Cinematic Universe, Phase Three and BEYOOOOONND

[Christopher R Taylor]

Quantumania will not make money.  Neither did Thor: Love and Thunder.  Or the Eternals.  Its all about expenses.  If you pay out 600 million in making, distributing, and publicizing a movie, then 500 million dollars is a loss.  Its like making a candy bar for 60 cents and selling it for 50, the numbers can be big as you want, but they still add up to failure.

 

The problem is that reshoots drive up the already ridiculously high expenses of making movies, and when you have to make more than half a billion dollars to make a profit you're doing it wrong.  Marvel is coasting on thinking they can pull billion dollar-plus earnings like they did back when the product was better and the hype was at full steam.  Even a dud like Captain Marvel pulled in a billion because of the momentum.

 

That's an irrational level of expectation that cannot be sustained, especially when you flood the market with sub optimal product.

 

Also there's a bit going around where this woman was promoted to a position made for her that didn't come with more pay or responsibilities, and the rumor is going around that she's Feige's fall guy: things have gone poorly lately and she's the one that is taking the fall.

 

Disney isn't particularly fond of her either because she went on an interview and called out her boss demanding Iger do certain things which does not... let us say endear you to bosses.

[csyphrett]

Quantamania has already made back its budget.

CES

[unclevlad]

And the recent releases' budgets were nothing like $500M.

 

https://screenrant.com/how-much-ant-man-wasp-quantumania-cost-to-make/

 

Eternals and Doc Strange movies...reported budgets, $200M.  And worldwide, yeah, it's grossed over $450M, so they've made money.  Not necessarily a *lot* so far, but made money.

[slikmar]

I also think that, with a lot of these being released to streaming in addition to theaters, you have to somehow include those amounts. I think it is a disservice to the movies not to. If even a quarter of the movie patrons aren't going because they can just watch it on their disney+ or whatever, that can be a big number, especially if they are a family of 3-4.

[Old Man]

2 hours ago, unclevlad said:

And the recent releases' budgets were nothing like $500M.

 

https://screenrant.com/how-much-ant-man-wasp-quantumania-cost-to-make/

 

Eternals and Doc Strange movies...reported budgets, $200M.  And worldwide, yeah, it's grossed over $450M, so they've made money.  Not necessarily a *lot* so far, but made money.

 

Exactly.  As reported upthread, Quantumania is already outperforming a number of non-flop MCU films and should easily be the top Ant-Man entry.  I can find sources online calling it a failure because it didn't approach the performance of Endgame, though. 

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, Old Man said:

 

Exactly.  As reported upthread, Quantumania is already outperforming a number of non-flop MCU films and should easily be the top Ant-Man entry.  I can find sources online calling it a failure because it didn't approach the performance of Endgame, though. 

 

I believe it.

 

But that's just another example of the need to review the reviewer FIRST.  

[Christopher R Taylor]

The budgets aren't reported by the studio, they are guessed at.  Eternals definitely cost more than 200 million, with the multiple reshoots and large cast.  Quantumania, same: lots of reshoots and a fairly large cast.  These were very expensive movies (stuff like Marvels is going to push 300+ million, for example, or more.  Flashpoint is probably close to 500 million).

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, Christopher R Taylor said:

The budgets aren't reported by the studio, they are guessed at.  Eternals definitely cost more than 200 million, with the multiple reshoots and large cast.  Quantumania, same: lots of reshoots and a fairly large cast.  These were very expensive movies (stuff like Marvels is going to push 300+ million, for example, or more.  Flashpoint is probably close to 500 million).

 

What basis do you have for any of this?  

[Christopher R Taylor]

Another reason that Alonso was canned is probably related to her job.  In 2021 she was put into a newly created quality control position and from that point forward the CGI started to look poorer in the movies and especially the shows, and the reshoots started happening more and more.  That did not help her position.

 

Edit: Also, apparently she violated a non-compete clause in her contract by filming Argentina 1985 with another studio.  Which does not speak well of Disney as a company, being that petty.  This honestly sounds more like an excuse: we want her gone, here's something we can use.

[Bazza]

 

[Old Man]

17 minutes ago, Bazza said:

 

 

That makes a lot more sense, thanks.

[Christopher R Taylor]

Quote

What basis do you have for any of this?  

 

Most of it is pretty straight forward.  A film gets a budget of 200 million, then has to do several months of reshoots, that costs a lot more money, but people still report 200 million.  It is a repeated pattern for films -- Dr Strange 2 had a lot of reshoots, pushing the release date back and back.  All of that costs more money.  So the data is not exactly accurate. 

 

Unfortunately we (and investors) get almost no information about streaming services, although the word is that She Hulk and Ms Marvel made no money.  Its just guesswork based on Nielsen ratings and rumors, because companies rarely give actual data about any of this.  One rule of thumb is that the less they talk about earnings, ratings or success of a project, the poorer it did.

[Bazza]

6 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

That makes a lot more sense, thanks.

More to the story:

 

 

[Bazza]

 

[Bazza]

NPR news story:

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/25/1166104169/actor-jonathan-majors-arrested-assault-new-york-city

[Bazza]

This is pretty neat

 

 

[Bazza]

 

[Christopher R Taylor]

I'm starting to wonder if they really ARE going to do the Kang storyline for the Avengers.  I've never been a fan of him, pretty weak as villains go, but this could be expensive and difficult to change directions on at this point.

[Bazza]

It has been suggested, maybe not seriously, to recast the role. 
 

Majors, and his representatives still say he has done nothing wrong, and feel he will be vindicated. 

[Bazza]

I don't expect a statement from Marvel or Disney in the near short term. If Major's unavailability becomes an issue, then I expect Marvel/Disney to release a statement. 

 

However, if Marvel/Disney (more likely Disney) does release a statement I expect something similar to this:

- We don't condone the actions that are said to have been committed. 

 - We hope that the victim is receiving proper care and treatment. (Disney could pay for this as a goodwill PR move)

- We support our Majors and he is innocent until proven guilty by the legal system. 

 

I would be surprised if public statements made by other directors/producers about Majors is mentioned by Disney, however I'm sure they would now be aware of them.

[Christopher R Taylor]

Quote

I would be surprised if public statements made by other directors/producers about Majors is mentioned by Disney, however I'm sure they would now be aware of them.

 

Yeah I mean if DC can keep the demented, violent, and child-molesting Ezra Miller a bit of an altercation probably won't chase off Marvel.

[Bazza]

 

[Old Man]

1 hour ago, Bazza said:

 

 

Finally.  You'd think Disney would have gotten rid of this misogynist years ago.

[Bazza]

They probably waited for an excuse. Marvel’s downturn was it. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Bazza

[Lord Liaden]

Sounds like Perlmutter was making political moves behind the scenes. IMO that's at least as likely to have gotten him canned.