College Football 2022

[Grailknight]

5 hours ago, Starlord said:

How the hell is Clemson ranked 4th?  Is the committee actually watching these games?  I'm not convinced they are even top 10.

 

Clemson and Michigan are ahead of TCU because of reputation and preseason rankings. TCU is the team that looks like it's going to be the loser in all this as they will have a hard time getting in over a one loss log jam of Ohio State/Michigan/Illinois(B1G Champion), Tennessee/Georgia/Alabama or even Oregon/USC/UCLA. They need to win out to even be sure of topping a one loss Clemson/North Carolina duo in the ACC though they'd probably get in over NC.

[Iuz the Evil]

3 hours ago, Grailknight said:

 

Clemson and Michigan are ahead of TCU because of reputation and preseason rankings. TCU is the team that looks like it's going to be the loser in all this as they will have a hard time getting in over a one loss log jam of Ohio State/Michigan/Illinois(B1G Champion), Tennessee/Georgia/Alabama or even Oregon/USC/UCLA. They need to win out to even be sure of topping a one loss Clemson/North Carolina duo in the ACC though they'd probably get in over NC.

If they win out, they’re in. No loss conference champion won’t be left out, but if they drop a game it’s all over.

[Grailknight]

2 hours ago, Iuz the Evil said:

If they win out, they’re in. No loss conference champion won’t be left out, but if they drop a game it’s all over.

 

If Clemson, Michigan and Georgia win out, they could be judged against one loss teams from Ohio State, USC and Tennessee. Being undefeated helps but money makes the world go round.  

[unclevlad]

The problem in that scenario:  Georgia and Tennessee, and Michigan and Ohio State, are in the same division in their conferences.  Thus, the loser in those games almost certainly does not reach their conference championship game.

 

IF!!! Alabama makes it to the championship game...3 way tie right now...and wins it against an undefeated Georgia or Tennessee, then obviously Alabama's in, and there's a HECKUVA case for the loser there.  Especially if it's Tennessee, as they'd have wins over *2* strong CFP contenders, if not teams.  Plus wins over Pitt, Florida, LSU, and Kentucky, all ranked at the time.  No one else will have that.  Even if it's Georgia, they'll have a win over the late-season #1...which the others won't have, the early-season win over Oregon is looking better, and presumably wins over Miss St and Kentucky.  The big one will be beating Tennessee, tho, if they do.  

 

A one-loss Michigan team won't make it, I agree with that.  A one-loss OSU?  They'd be in the mix, I think, in part because they're up there now.  But if they lose to Michigan, again...no conference title game is a significant downside.

 

TCU probably still needs to accumulate style points, and wouldn't want to see K-State or OSU stumble to an unranked team.  Fair or not...TCU is not a drawing card, and this *may* play against them.

 

 

[Starlord]

The really odd scenario would be if Tennessee beats Georgia but then Alabama beats Tennessee in the SEC championship.

[unclevlad]

5 hours ago, Starlord said:

The really odd scenario would be if Tennessee beats Georgia but then Alabama beats Tennessee in the SEC championship.

 

Yeah, that's the one that's widely cited as almost certainly giving the SEC 2 teams, even if Clemson, TCU, and OSU or Michigan go undefeated.  One of em would miss out...and of those 3, TCU is starting from behind.

 

It's also notable that we're not mentioning the Pac-12...in part because they're all 1-loss teams.  But they've got to be no better than 6th spot...taken collectively...projecting forward.  They'll need someone to win out, and 1 or 2 Good Things to happen elsewhere.

[Iuz the Evil]

The SEC team that doesn’t even make the conference title is not likely to go in the event their up against an undefeated P5 conference champion. One loss? Sure.

 

 Of course, is prohibitively unlikely you have 4 undefeated conference champions at the end of the season…

[Grailknight]

But is Alabama wins out, and beats Tennessee in the title game, then you'd have a one loss SEC division winner that beat the SEC champ earlier and one of the few resumes that's better than TCU's. A scenario like this is something that could push the 12 team playoff format into next season. 

[Iuz the Evil]

I think they’d be very hesitant to do that with an undefeated conference champion. That’ll potentially give you a split title (with an AP or other champion), and the committee is dead set against that. 
 

It’s almost impossible to conceive that they’d pass over undefeated in a P5 conference for a one loss non conference champion. They might as will just give up any pretense at that point games and records matter. They want to maintain that illusion at all costs.

 

 On the plus side, in that scenario, if TCU wins their bowl game they’ll hang a national champion banner in their stadium.

[unclevlad]

There's zero chance of a split title.  There's commonly arguments about the teams that get in, sure...but that's the limit of things when the games actually get played.

 

And I believe they've done it before.  The Big 12 may have enough upper-tier rankings support, but the best win TCU has is OSU.  If Tennessee beats Georgia but loses to Bama in the title game...they have not one but two top-3 wins.  So how do you rate that?  Can TCU pass Clemson?  That might be the easier move...Clemson's only got a pair of top-25 wins, and none of their remaining opponents is currently ranked;  their most likely conference title opponent is UNC, who's only 17th.  In the Big 12 it'll be #1 vs. #2;  right now that'd be K-State, who's 14th.  So that might be a wash, but TCU has a stronger conference schedule...and Clemson's non-conference schedule was Little Debbies quality.

 

We shall see.  I remember one year...LONG time ago now...where going into the conference title games, there were questions like this...K-State just had to win and they'd be in.  They lost.  Not the first time, not the last.

[Iuz the Evil]

Talk to UCF about that. Or USC. Both had rings, victory parades and hang a banner for a year they didn’t play in the title game. That’s just the last twenty years.

 

 People can talk crap about it, they’ll still claim it if they do go undefeated and get left out. Just like USC and UCF.

[Pariah]

Saying that you won a national championship doesn't mean that you did, any more than saying you won, for example, a certain election two years ago doesn't mean that you did. Sure, it plays well with the fan base, but objectively, it just isn't true.

 

Back when the national championship was determined exclusively by polls, you could certainly make an argument for multiple teams as national champions. Michigan and Nebraska in 1997, Washington and Miami in 1991, Colorado and Georgia Tech in 1990, and so forth. But with the advent of the often flawed but long overdue college football playoff system, there's really no ambiguity anymore.

[Iuz the Evil]

The point is not that they won either of those times, although both schools still claim that they did (and that UCF title is recognized by the NCAA), but rather that those scenarios represent the worst nightmare of the committee. They do not want ambiguity, and certainly don’t like the articles which arose both times questioning the legitimacy of LSU and Clemson’s titles. UCF got left out because they’re not a P5 conference, it’ll be unthinkable to pass up TCU if they win out. Would utterly undermine the legitimacy of their process, rendering it even more of a beauty pageant.

 

 If they lose a game, they’re done. Even as a conference champion, they won’t select TCU with a loss. If they win out it’ll tie their hands, with regard to selection. The committee cares about the appearance of the process, it’s really all they have.

 

 Edit: I looked it up, only five teams have been passed over for the playoff and they’ve NEVER passed over a p5 school with an unbeaten record. Coastal Carolina, UCF (twice), Western Michigan, San Jose State and Cincinnati.

[Grailknight]

Turning things around, I can see a scenario where a one loss TCU does make it. Utah could win the Pac-12, NC could beat Clemson and Illinois could beat the Ohio State/Michigan winner. But that would make this the most chaotic season in NCAA history. 

[unclevlad]

2 hours ago, Iuz the Evil said:

The point is not that they won either of those times, although both schools still claim that they did (and that UCF title is recognized by the NCAA), but rather that those scenarios represent the worst nightmare of the committee. They do not want ambiguity, and certainly don’t like the articles which arose both times questioning the legitimacy of LSU and Clemson’s titles. UCF got left out because they’re not a P5 conference, it’ll be unthinkable to pass up TCU if they win out. Would utterly undermine the legitimacy of their process, rendering it even more of a beauty pageant.

 

 If they lose a game, they’re done. Even as a conference champion, they won’t select TCU with a loss. If they win out it’ll tie their hands, with regard to selection. The committee cares about the appearance of the process, it’s really all they have.

 

 Edit: I looked it up, only five teams have been passed over for the playoff and they’ve NEVER passed over a p5 school with an unbeaten record. Coastal Carolina, UCF (twice), Western Michigan, San Jose State and Cincinnati.

 

From the Wikipedia article on UCF, as it covers this explicitly:

 

Quote

On January 9, 2018, the Colley Matrix, an algorithm formerly used as part of the BCS computer rankings, ranked UCF No. 1.[216][217][218] All other NCAA-designated major selectors named Alabama as their 2017 national champion.[219]: 115  The NCAA's official record book lists UCF under the "Final National Poll Leaders" section, but the NCAA reserves the term "National Champions" for teams selected as champions by one of the four Consensus Polls (AP, USA Today/Coaches, National Football Foundation, and Football Writers Association of America) or winners of the BCS or College Football Playoff; and places a disclaimer next to UCF's name which says that since 2014, "the College Football Playoff [has been] used to determine national champions in FBS".[220] While it is not historically uncommon for certain polls to pick a champion other than the BCS or CFP winner, UCF is the only team which actively claims a national championship that was not awarded by the BCS/CFP or the AP Poll since the beginning of the BCS era.

 

So, objectively...no.  They're simply making a self-aggrandizing claim to bolster their program.

 

Non-P5's are, admittedly, different from P5's...but we don't have a Power 5 any more, in football.  We have the SEC as a law unto itself.  No other conference has the depth, or has 3 in the top 6.  Behind them is the Big 10.  The Big 12 and ACC are another rung down, and the Pac-12 has been 2-3 rungs below that for a few years, but probably are on that rung this year.

 

We're not saying TCU *is* going to be passed over.  We're saying that we can see specific combinations where an undefeated TCU...or possibly Clemson instead...might be.  History has limited predictive value here, as the conference scene changes.  OTOH, history DOES have a value:  reputation development.  Bama has it.  Georgia has it.  Ohio State and Michigan have it.  Clemson has it.  The Big 12 doesn't, and TCU absolutely doesn't.  If Tennessee can beat both Georgia and Alabama, they get it by transitive effect.  If Oklahoma was better, that  win would help TCU more...but they're not.

 

 

[Iuz the Evil]

Actually, objectively yes.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/official-ncaa-recognizes-ucfs-national-championship-record-book-234835087.html

 

 I personally find the claim ludicrous, it is nevertheless recognized even as an outlier. They’re allowed to claim it, and do so. They do not require fan agreement. I’ll let this go for now, as it seems to be aggravating folks to the point where they are making irrelevant and ad hominem attacks on the relative strength of other teams related to this issue.

 

 The point remains, no power 5 conference champion who is undefeated has ever been passed over. Only non P5 undefeated teams have during the college playoff.

[Pariah]

Huh. Didn't expect that.

[unclevlad]

Whoa....talk about UNEXPECTED...

 

Still the first half, but Northwestern's up 7-0 on OSU.  OSU has had 5 possessions.  Total of only 22 plays, 3 first downs.  4 punts, and a turnover on downs.  

 

EDIT:  ah, nasty weather.  Windy and wet.

[Starlord]

20 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

Whoa....talk about UNEXPECTED...

 

Still the first half, but Northwestern's up 7-0 on OSU.  OSU has had 5 possessions.  Total of only 22 plays, 3 first downs.  4 punts, and a turnover on downs.  

 

EDIT:  ah, nasty weather.  Windy and wet.

 

Flat out impossible to throw a pass in that game.  Punts into the wind are almost comical to watch - averaging about 15-20 yards.

 

Tied 7-7 now.

 

 

[Pariah]

Air Force intercepts a pass with about a minute left to preserve a win over Army. With the win, Air Force secures the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy and bowl eligibility. Their remaining games are against New Mexico, Colorado State, and San Diego State, plus a mid-major bowl game. With a good run, Air Force could conceivably finish the season with 10 wins.

[unclevlad]

In the anti-surprise of the week, at half it's Oregon 28-7 over Colorado.

 

In the marquis matchup...it's not much of a contest.  24-6 Georgia.  Tennessee's offense has been throttled.

[unclevlad]

The Kansas Jayhawks have not won more than 3 games in a season since 2009.

Right now, they're finishing up a win over a ranked Ok State team...that will make them bowl eligible.

 

Well, we did have a freeze warning down here this morning.  It was prophetic.

[Pariah]

And just like that, Tennessee is back on the Pretenders list. Their time at #1 sure didn't last long.

 

In fairness though you can't judge them too harshly for a poor performance against georgia. Think back to the first week against oregon, and then look back at what Oregon has done since. Georgia is just a really, really good team.

[Pariah]

Another failed 4th & 1 for BYU.

 

Did we learn nothing last week?!

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, Pariah said:

Another failed 4th & 1 for BYU.

 

Did we learn nothing last week?!

 

Mr. P, are you sure you want to watch these BYU games?  I mean, the negative impacts on your health have me concerned.  

 

Meanwhile, my inner chaos demon is beginning to stir...Michigan and Bama both losing?  Not by much and still very early.  ND 14-0, mid 3rd????  Clemson punted, pinned ND at the 5....but back to back first downs out past the 35.  Oh my.  My oh my oh my...it's cackling in anticipation.  If that sounds creepy, trust me, it *feels* even weirder....