College Football 2022

[unclevlad]

Tennessee would still have to be preferred to USC and Clemson...both would be one-loss conference champs assuming they win out.  And the Mich/OSU loser who would be in the same boat.  The Alabama win is losing some of its glossiness;  2 losses, and multiple cases of struggling.

 

They could get in, to be sure.  And there's still a lot that can happen;  there's still 2 big regular-season weeks, and the title games.

[unclevlad]

Just noted on ESPN bottom line.

Colorado +31.5 vs. Washington.  Washington's given a 97% chance to win by FPI.  Can't say I've seen any power 5 team that great a favorite by FPI, but then again, I didn't see what it was last week against USC.

 

In far less pleasant news, Virginia's football team has not decided if they'll play against Coastal Carolina this weekend.  If they choose to play?  More power to them.  All the best.  If not?  Totally understandable.  I rather hope they decide not to play;  I can't see how they could possibly be ready to play, and it seems the risk of injury, under the circumstances, seems massively higher.

[unclevlad]

It is that time of year.  EMich vs. Kent State nearing halftime;  ESPN promos another MAC game upcoming, Western vs. Central Mich.  It's a big, fat-flake snowbomb going off.  

 

Elsewhere, Virginia cancelled its last home game of the season earlier today.  Which is even more saddening...because that's always Senior Day.  The suspect in the case was denied bail;  suffice to say, he's got a very, very serious record already, so even if there's no 1st degree murder charges, he's not someone you let back onto the streets.  

 

The school has not decided about playing the last game of the season, versus Virginia Tech.  I'm leaning no...I'd let the players go home to families.  (I'd also DARN sure leave the athletic dorm and food service running throughout, for those who can't.)

[Pariah]

ESPN does their College Game Day program from a different campus every Saturday. This morning they're in Bozeman for Montana at Montana State, the rivalry game known as the Brawl of the Wild.

 

Current temperature in Bozeman, according to Google: 1°F (-17°C).

[Pariah]

Lee Corso just put on the Bobcat head, and the Montana State fans went nuts.

 

This is quality television right here!

[Pariah]

Sweet Christmas.

 

I cannot believe TCU just won that game. I saw it, and I still can't believe it.

[unclevlad]

Arrrrgghhh....sooo close.

 

Baylor stops a 2 point conversion to retain a 28-26 lead late.  TCU kicks deep;  Baylor can't manage the first down, has to punt the ball back to TCU.  They move it 40+ yards in less than a minute and a half, and kick a 43 yarder as time expires.  

 

TCU 29, Baylor 28.  Chaos averted.  DRAT!

 

EDIT:  was watching the gamecast rather than the game.  I mostly thought they kicked on 3rd...but no.  Ran a play that was stopped in bounds, had to run a scramble drill to get the kicking team on.  That's easy to mess up...line doesn't get set, someone moves, anything like that and it would have been Game Over, because there would've been a 10 second runoff.  Game Over.

 

NOT a smart play, IMO, but the coach got away with it.

 

Meanwhile, I'm watching Illinois continue to lead Michigan.  17-16 inside 3 minutes.  Less chaos here, more just the sweet, sweet feeling of Jim Harbaugh crashing and burning...again.  That said, Michigan's about to get the ball back, probably in good to VERY good field position...yep, basically midfield.  

 

Sigh.  So many hopes looking to be dashed...

[Starlord]

All top 4 win, but none of them very impressive this week.  I think the Buckeyes and Michigan may have been looking ahead to each other.  Ohio State played very sloppy.  Hopefully they can exact revenge for last year next week.

[unclevlad]

Was thinking about that just now, too.  Some of it may also be that all four of em have big, fat targets on their backs at this point.  The games meant less to them than to their opponents.  And I haven't looked but...perhaps the backups played more for Georgia?  Their title berth is locked in.  Or somewhat more cautious playcalling?  I did see that Alabama ran the ball 45 times...against Austin Peay, to be sure, and they did throw a 34-0 whitewash.  But it's a good way to protect their NIL Star, and get the backs some good work.

 

But they all won.  NO fun so far today.

[unclevlad]

Good golly Miss Molly.  

Our resident boneface must be ecstatic.  Bedlam is Gash, Slash, and Beatdown, it would appear...Sooners have 300 yards and 28 points *in the first quarter*.

[unclevlad]

2 minutes to go, and South Carolina just added insult to injury.  63-31 over Tennessee.  Vols collapsed in the 4th.  

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey I'm gonna get you too
Another one bites the dust

 

So we get a little chaos, as Tennessee was generally favored to have that last playoff slot even without playing in the title game.  Now?  Who knows.

[Pariah]

I do. Tennessee is done.

 

The Top Three seem pretty clear at this moment: Georgia, the winner of Ohio State / Michigan, and TCU. Win out, and all three are in, no questions asked.

 

Now, about that fourth team ... could the one-loss Buckeyes / Wolverines winner get a bid for the #4 slot over a one-loss conference champion, e.g., Clemson or USC? I doubt it. USC will need to beat Notre Dame next week, and then probably have to beat Oregon to win the PAC. Doing so would likely impress the panel enough to earn that last slot. Screw up either game, and I suspect Clemson is in, assuming they win out.

 

We'll know more next week, I suppose.

[Cancer]

On 11/15/2022 at 4:51 PM, unclevlad said:

Just noted on ESPN bottom line.

Colorado +31.5 vs. Washington.  Washington's given a 97% chance to win by FPI.  Can't say I've seen any power 5 team that great a favorite by FPI, but then again, I didn't see what it was last week against USC.

 

Hope anyone here gave the points.

[unclevlad]

2 minutes ago, Cancer said:

 

Hope anyone here gave the points.

 

Think I saw Colorado was 1-9 ATS, so...that would be a no-brainer.

Going into yesterday, Colorado had the, IIRC, 5th worst scoring offense at 15+ per game.  They had the worst scoring defense at 41 a game.  Both got worse.  Hard to do.

 

The Buffs were last in scoring margin...by over 5 points per game.  -26.  Yeah, the 2 points above show that.  After yesterday, it's a 6 point spread.  The Buffs also have the lowest rating among Power 5 conferences by Football Power Index...at #122, out of 131.  Despite the fact that the Pac-12 has 6 in the top 30, which normally helps raise their weak teams.  They're down with, for example, the Mountain West...Nevada, CSU, New Mexico, and Hawai'i are a combined 9-36, and all below CU.  (All four of them were in CBS' bottom 10 last week...where the Buffs were #2.)

 

Utah has to wish they could've pulled out that game last night...if you missed it, not surprising, since it ended just before midnight Mountain time.  Win that, and they'd be 7-1...with the Buffs only left.  They could've booked the plane tickets with very high confidence.

[Logan D. Hurricanes]

So, how about those Gamecocks?

 

Two weeks ago we beat them by 32. 

 

Yesterday they turn around and beat Tennessee by 25.

 

Funny game, this. Which team shows up for Clemson?

[Pariah]

The FCS bracket is out today. Local favorite Weber State hosts North Dakota (a team DU hockey fans used to call the Boys Named Sioux) in the first round. Win that game, and.the Wildcats get a trip to Bozeman for their trouble. Montana State just dropped half a hundred on Montana yesterday.

 

The Big Sky got five teams into the 24-team bracket: #3 Sacramento State, #4 Montana State, Weber State, Montana, and Idaho. The latter three are all favored to win their first round games, according to an article I read this afternoon.

 

Let the championship games begin! 

[unclevlad]

The aftermath of the Michigan State tunnel assault after the Michigan game is in, or at least a big chunk of it is.

 

7 MSU players have been charged, felonious assault, assault and battery, and aggravated assault for the other 5.

 

I just hope the charges serve as a lesson and a caution, so this doesn't happen again.  Yeah, I have some sympathy for the MSU players, because they'll likely pay a very stiff price for losing their cool in the heat of the moment.  I think all the charges are felony charges, and a felony *assault* conviction will close lots of doors for a very long time.

[Pariah]

It's turning out to be a fun day for Mountain West Conference football. Utah State — Boise State was on CBS earlier. Utah State was driving with a chance to take the lead late, but two turnovers in the last 2 minutes turned a close game into a 42-23 blowout.

 

Now playing on CBS Sports Network is New Mexico at Colorado State, in a game that will prove definitively which is the worst team in the conference.

[unclevlad]

48 minutes ago, Pariah said:

Now playing on CBS Sports Network is New Mexico at Colorado State, in a game that will prove definitively which is the worst team in the conference.  universe 

 

FTFY

 

EDIT:  recognize, we're talking college-level teams.  CU has a practice squad only.

[Pariah]

Matt Rhule is the new head coach at Nebraska.

 

May Heaven have mercy on his soul. 

[unclevlad]

Well, look at it this way.  The bar's pretty low right now, and Rhule turned around a very damaged Baylor program after the big scandal related to sexual assault/harassment issues.  Frost arguably wasn't ready for a Big 10 level HC position;  Rhule should have no issues there.

 

I do agree, tho, that it feels like a tough job.  But hey, he's still owed the money from his Panthers contract, presumably whatever he makes at Nebraska only offsets it.  That's a nice situation from which to take up a challenge.

 

Meanwhile, Michigan-OSU is pretty entertaining.  Fair bit of defense overall...but numerous big plays too.  20-17 OSU in a tit-for-tat kind of game as halftime approaches.

[unclevlad]

Wow.

 

Michigan ultimately pulls a pretty major beat-down.  OSU loses their cool...a terrible (as in, 5 yards out of bounds, well after the play was over) head butt.  Another post-play unsportsmanlike...they didn't show this one, instead cutting to Johnson and Klatt to let them pontificate.  Both were serious field position changers.  Stroud panics in the red zone, trying a desperation forward lateral;  it's bobbled and picked off, largely sealing the deal as OSU was down 15 at the time...and that killed the scoring chance.  Michigan *gashes* the defense, especially in the 2nd half, repeatedly;  the door-slammer was the 3rd play after that pick.  3rd and 3 at the 15, OSU has to crowd the line, desperate to stop the 1st.  BOOM...back breaks through, and there's noooo one who can catch him.  Over 500 yards for Michigan's offense, mostly in the 2nd half.

 

45-23 final.

 

I think OSU is on the outside at this point...quite a few things have to go right before they can get into the playoffs.  

[Pariah]

Okay, how did BYU get thrashed by a team who just got thrashed by New Mexico State?

 

And Clemson lost to South Carolina? Who saw that one coming? I'd guess that Clemson is out of the payoff discussion.

 

Oregon is currently losing 10-7 to Oregon State, but the Beavers just turned it over in the red zone. If Oregon comes back to win, they'll be in the PAC-12 championship against USC. Lose, and things get complicated. If Utah beats Colorado (a near certainty) and Washington beats Washington State (less certain), those three teams all have two conference losses. Washington has beaten Oregon and Oregon has beaten Utah, so I guess Washington gets the other slot?

 

Looks like you've got some of that chaos you were looking for, UV. 

[unclevlad]

There is no doubt, Clemson's out.  They were #8 before, but a home loss to an unranked team?  No good wins?  

 

Georgia's an absolute lock.  Michigan is probably a lock but losing to Purdue, if they win today...they're a 4-loss, unranked team.  That might raise some doubt.  TCU might be in even if they lose next week...they're kicking butt right now.  

 

Cuz after that?  Yeah, as was being said on the Iron Bowl halftime show, OSU lost *bad*, at home, and to a team without their top back.  Their best win is Notre Dame, so they really want ND to beat USC.  Clemson's dead.  USC has the clear path, then...Bama or OSU?  Bama wins that comparison, I'd think.  If LSU beats Georgia, they'll have a compelling case.

 

So I think:

In:  Georgia yes, Michigan unless they just play horribly

Win out and in:  TCU, LSU;  USC if LSU loses to Georgia

 

Everyone else will need the right upsets.

 

Meanwhile, the Utah-Colorado game is showing why college needs a mercy rule.  How often does 42-0 at halftime UNDERSTATE the dominance?  Looks like...it does here.  First downs, 20-1.  Yards, 379-16.  Yards per play, Utah a bit under 10, Colorado less than 1.  Utah's had 7 possessions...and faced 3rd down 3 times.

 

I'd say Utah avoided any chance of a letdown.  Oregon's winning handily now, so that sets up USC vs. Oregon for the conference.  Oregon was only #9, tho...even if they beat USC, I don't know if they can rise enough...maybe if TCU also loses in their title game, tho.  

[unclevlad]

Mymymymymymymy...........a most excellent level of chaos!

 

A&M 38, LSU 23.

 

USC just picked of ND...inside 5 minutes left, up 10, and now with the ball just outside the red zone.  Should let them close it out.  Assuming so...the top 4 are pretty much set and locked, without much room for argument.  Georgia, Mich, TCU, USC.  If they all win their conference title games, there's no dispute...odds are, not even for the seeding.

 

Oh yeah, that's the door slamming.  16 yard TD run on 4th and 2.  Extra point makes it a 3 score game with less than 3 minutes to go.

 

Even TCU probably gets in now, unless they get spanked, I think.  But if USC loses...OSU or Bama?  I suspect Bama.  Who else?  If both TCU and USC lose...OSU *and* Bama?  I doubt it;  that's 2 Big 10 and 2 SEC, and I think the committee will want to avoid that at all costs.