unclevlad

We keep receiving a Sports Illustrated subscription for someone who hasn't lived here in five years or more. This is what the front cover looked like today:
 

IT is called being an introvert. I have been in training by entire life for this. 

Make a true change?  As pointed out, too long.
However, present direct, compelling evidence that man's activities are causing widespread damage?  That might be possible.  It's a tremendous opportunity for environmental impact assessment;  it's just horrible that it had to come about like this.  
 
It could be a tremendous, horrific, very twisted irony that, in fact, this pandemic might ultimately save us from ourselves.

Because we need a little comedy.
 

Honestly, I think it's better if you don't.
 
I mean, neither of you has a one-hundred percent chance of being absolutely right or absolutely wrong, and if we base a position on the last time the entire country shut down for a month or so--- we'll see that we have no data to pull from.
 
And ultimately, we will _all_ know soon enough, meaning that any time spent pithing back and forth about what will be in a month will have been time you both could have been solving differential equations.  
 
 And here's more news:
 
A dumbass I work with has exposed about 40 of us (me included).  Well, _may_ have exposed.  Let me sum this up:
 
Since Monday morning, Coworker has been regaling us with tales of the great time he and his family had with his sibling sibling's spouse all weekend.  They visited, they played with the kids, the did lots of fun things.
 
Today, three 0'clock this afternoon, the subject turns to "the virus."  Coworker announces that he hoped Sibling and Spouse got to their cabin okay.  Seems that was where they were headed to quarantine themselves after having been DIAGNOSED POSITIVE!
 
We can give all the suggestions or flat-out orders we want.  Stupid will make a mockery of it every time.
 
 

Make a true change?  As pointed out, too long.
However, present direct, compelling evidence that man's activities are causing widespread damage?  That might be possible.  It's a tremendous opportunity for environmental impact assessment;  it's just horrible that it had to come about like this.  
 
It could be a tremendous, horrific, very twisted irony that, in fact, this pandemic might ultimately save us from ourselves.

Make a true change?  As pointed out, too long.
However, present direct, compelling evidence that man's activities are causing widespread damage?  That might be possible.  It's a tremendous opportunity for environmental impact assessment;  it's just horrible that it had to come about like this.  
 
It could be a tremendous, horrific, very twisted irony that, in fact, this pandemic might ultimately save us from ourselves.

Well, you know how it goes.  No boom today.  Boom tomorrow.

Except for this year, when it feels like President of the United States is a two dead horse race.

Epidemiological modeling is fairly well known in general, and there's a fair amount of data WRT coronavirus now to set parameters for it.  Those models show infection rates of 75%+ within 3-4 months, should nothing be done, for MOST of the US.  Moderate measures still give high rates:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html

NY Times has a time-lapse chart of case numbers by day for the US on its web site main page right now;  it's worth watching.  Also, look at Italy...almost 800 deaths just yesterday alone, because they didn't do enough at the outset.  

I agree people are panicking and overreacting, but I still expect the supplies situation will improve reasonably quickly...the hoarders doing it out of fear will have what they need.  Those thinking to make a buck...well, I think they're gonna get burned.

The illusion of immortality is practically a fundamental condition of the young and protected.

I'm not saying they're wrong, but...the entire economy will completely collapse if that many people have no job for anything close to that long.
 
And I'm worried about street-level violence this summer, as job losses lead to evictions, and homeless people will be viewed as a significant threat.  If this continues into winter?  

I'm not saying they're wrong, but...the entire economy will completely collapse if that many people have no job for anything close to that long.
 
And I'm worried about street-level violence this summer, as job losses lead to evictions, and homeless people will be viewed as a significant threat.  If this continues into winter?  

Sorry if this is rambling....   still in a little bit of shock and things are kind of raw right now.
 
Saw this thread for the first time today.... after reading 3 pages, skipped to the end since it was 22 pages.  
 
Not even sure why I am writing this.   Today, my family  became one of the statistics.   My 75 year old mother-in-law died this afternoon due to complication from the coronavirus (respiratory failure).   She was very healthy for her age...  only on thyroid medication....  no heart, blood pressure, cholesterol, nor any other 'old person' maintenance drugs.  
 
She had a slight fever for a couple of days and did not feel well.  Went to the doctor on a Thursday, had a slight temp (~100) and a 98% oxygen level.   Doctor thought it may have been an infection from deviated septum surgery a couple of weeks before and gave her some antibiotics.  She went downhill fast over the weekend and went back to the doctor on Monday.  She almost passed out at the doctor's office since she only had around a 60% oxygen level.  Was taken to the ER by ambulance.  The ICU rooms in the hospital were full and they had to call around to other hospitals to find a room for her.  By Monday night, she was in critical condition and on a respirator.   That was a little over a week ago.  She was able to be put on an experimental drug study since she was so healthy and not on a lot of medication.  It may have slowed some things down, but did not seem to help.
 
Don't want to fan the flames or anything.   Amazon is back-ordered a bit, but get an oximeter for yourself and your extended families.  If exposed and not feeling well, it can at least give you another data point beside temperature and feeling like crap.
 
Not sure if/when I will come back to this thread.   Take care everyone and stay healthy

Not sure if it's been posted yet or not, but the paper that's likely driving a lot of the time estimates: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2EzKndfMupd6kQ4mQ7sl9aTW9XQ7p_8tsgwDkeq664mosM5OCxZw_NU9g
 
TL;DR: The current social distancing/self-isolation/school closure is likely to continue for a minimum of 3 months. If relaxed after 3 months, there would be a resurgence of cases with ICU peak being exceeded in October and an estimated 1.1-1.2 million deaths in the US. In order to minimize the impact of corona, the full suite of  measures would need to remain in place for up to 18 months (until general availability of a vaccine).

Nah, they probably share the same legal team as US Soccer.

You can't have a complete lockdown.  That's not even happening in Italy;  essential stores are still open, like grocery stores.  You also have to deal with public reaction.  The hammer blow we're feeling in the US is that...this bloody well feels like an Infinity Gauntlet finger snap.  Wednesay noon...normal-ish. at least in many places.  Wednesday night...20 foot waves crashing onshore.  Thursday noon...tidal wave hits.  It was that fast, that sudden, and that complete a change.  We couldn't, and still in many places, shouldn't go to a complete lockdown yet.  There are some serious consequences...shutting down public schools creates a BIG problem for kids who rely on that school lunch, and for working parents, for example.
 
The goal, BTW, isn't to stop new cases.  It's to keep the case load from spiking past the point where health care can deal with it.  That's when death rates start rising rather higher.  Plus, it offers more time for research for a vaccine or drug to take the virus out.  Because...figure.  With this many cases known, even if things quiet down as the weather warms...the risk of round 2, come November or December, is significant.

Insightful piece about root causes and the collateral damage of politics

From the NY Times:
 
And this is the submission itself.  Not for the technologically faint of heart.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221?rss=1
 
 

A friend of mine posted this on the Book of Face.  Sometimes a picture really is worth a thousand words. 

This doormat is going viral, or so I hear.
 

Yeah, I saw a similar headline...very high number of first-time gun buyers.
 
And I had a thought just now.  There will be another set of indirect victims.
 
Fear.  Stress.  Sense of Isolation.  Disconnection from social networks, such as one's workgroup.  These are big risk factors for suicide.  I doubt it's a factor in the US just yet, but I am very much afraid it will become more significant within a few weeks.  Especially, for example, high school seniors.  Unable to finish...no graduation in sight.  Missing friends from school.