Longest Running Thread EVER

[archermoo]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

You wouldn't be able to get an exact value' date=' though you could get to within 100 of the exact value.[/quote']

 

Well, within 99 in either direction. But had I looked at his chart first I'd've noticed that the number indicate that it is probably Rep Power that he is tracking. Unless it is the portion of Rep Power that comes from Rep...

[zornwil]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

Yeah, I was gonna say, rep really isn't a predictable thing. Some weeks, I move up 2 or 3 rep power, other weeks I don't get any at all. I've tried to actively shill for rep (subtly, not by blatant rep-begging) and it didn't work, and I've ignored it entirely, only to be bumped a couple hundred in a day or two.

 

Maybe averaging it out over a long haul makes more sense, overall, but I still say it's not the predictable.

 

Unless you're someone like Susano, who consistently has awesome contributions.

Well, I'd like to see Cancer's results before guessing. One of the interesting things is a certain cluster of raises that are in the same area of time. Bear in mind, many things in life aren't strictly predictable, sure, but they adhere to patterns that recur and are probable, sometimes highly probable.

[zornwil]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

Possible, but that's part of what I'm looking to capture in the data, too! Data are never wrong; they may merely be inadequate for the purpose for which you originally began to collect them.

 

There are mathematical reasons to believe that rep levels should increase exponentially rather than linearly with time. (It is a positive-feedback system.) I'm just trying to see if I can establish that is what's going on.

 

There is an artifact that happens; more or less everyone so far has had a spike in their rep increase rate as they approach 100. No real surpirse there.

I am guessing that if there is a pattern, there are 2 primary modes: slow and steady, probably linear, until an ongoing, active poster attracts ongoing attention of heavy-hitters and then moves into an exponential mode; then the "attractive poster" phenom where someone does the right things (note, I'm not implying anything, this can be genuine in nature as well as calculated) to attract immediate attention.

[zornwil]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

I dunno if or when I'll hit 200; I've tapered off considerably in the last week or so in received rep. As Alice noted, there's no predicting it. But yes...predictions are fun.

 

You say you don't have enough data yet to make an accurate determination...are you still gathering data, then, or have your samples been completed for what you wanted to do?

I think everyone goes through that. There seem to be clusters of occurrence, which makes sense with the lower number of heavy-hitter reppers and the nature of the 20-rep cycle, along with a presumption that certain posts drive rep and others do not.

[Dr. Anomaly]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

Well' date=' within 99 in either direction. But had I looked at his chart first I'd've noticed that the number indicate that it is probably Rep Power that he is tracking. Unless it is the portion of Rep Power that comes from Rep...[/quote']

Actually, no. Example, using me:

 

I have a Rep Power of 126.

 

My non-received-rep Rep Power consists of:

 

1 - basic everyone has if they have at least 50 posts

 

2 - one for every full year I've been registered

 

2 - one for every full 1,000 non-NGD posts

 

 

5 = total non-received-rep Rep Power.

 

That means there's 121 of my Rep Power that's unaccounted for. Since you get 1 Rep Power for every 100 rep received, then the minimum I could have, and have that 121, is 12,100 received rep, and since I haven't rolled it over to 127 total, the most I could could have is 12,199.

 

There isn't a "in either direction" in this sort of set-up since you know what the absolute minimum must be, and what the absolute maximum could be.

[archermoo]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

Actually, no. Example, using me:

 

I have a Rep Power of 126.

 

My non-received-rep Rep Power consists of:

 

1 - basic everyone has if they have at least 50 posts

 

2 - one for every full year I've been registered

 

2 - one for every full 1,000 non-NGD posts

 

 

5 = total non-received-rep Rep Power.

 

That means there's 121 of my Rep Power that's unaccounted for. Since you get 1 Rep Power for every 100 rep received, then the minimum I could have, and have that 121, is 12,100 received rep, and since I haven't rolled it over to 127 total, the most I could could have is 12,199.

 

There isn't a "in either direction" in this sort of set-up since you know what the absolute minimum must be, and what the absolute maximum could be.

 

True, I was looking at it from the point of view that you could guess a number in the range up to 99 above or 99 below the actual number. Which is of course the result of having a range of 100.

[Bazza]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

I am guessing that if there is a pattern' date=' there are 2 primary modes: slow and steady, probably linear, until an ongoing, active poster attracts ongoing attention of heavy-hitters and then moves into an exponential mode; then the "attractive poster" phenom where someone does the right things (note, I'm not implying anything, this can be genuine in nature as well as calculated) to attract immediate attention.[/quote'] I volunteer for the exponitial rep experiment.

 

for science.

[death tribble]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

I didn't make the cut :weep:

Neither did I. So quit your complaining.

[ghost-angel]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

One thing I've noticed, being moderately active in all forums and fairly heavy in the Hero Discussion and NGD is that I get Rep almost every day.

 

I skip a day here and there (usually a weekend day actually, and will probably not receive Rep today due to overall board slowness), but I can count pretty consistently that I will receive rep at least once a day.

 

Now, that Rep can be anywhere from 4-60 (occasionally one of the big Rep Power peeps hits me), so I go up in Rep Power about every 2-3 days or so it feels. I couldn't read my line on Cancer's chart, but that seems accurate enough.

 

It tells me I'm enough of a participent, and interesting to a broad enough spectrum, that I'm on a slow and steady rise.

 

Edit: by my esitmate and tracking (I don't write it down, by I do keep track of it mostly) the last 4 people to Rep me garnered exactly 100 Reputation. And that was the last 24 hours (or so, closer to 28 hours I think).

 

But mostly I like to read the comments I get, and I like to see where I get the rep more than the boost in Rep Power itself.

[RPMiller]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

Ok, I now have the first version of the PDF export done, and have run into the next snag.

 

I need to figure out how to control tab stops as it seems the tab character just enters 3 blank spaces.

 

The second problem is I need to figure out how to tell it to start a second page, and control where the bottom margin is. Otherwise it is coming along fine.

 

Here is what I have so far if you want to take a look at it.

[Cancer]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

You say you don't have enough data yet to make an accurate determination...are you still gathering data' date=' then, or have your samples been completed for what you wanted to do?[/quote']

 

Data-taking will go on for the indefinite future. Between having two weeks to play with (so I started thinking in a concrete way about how to treat the data), and having a terrible pre-holiday zero-motivation day, I rearranged my raw Excel file, did a few regressions, made that one plot on Wednesday. Two weeks is clearly not enough to distinguish a linear growth from from an exponential one, even if there weren't the strange oscillations that you and Alice have commented on.

 

And I apologize to Bazza and others who aren't in the dataset. It's 25 people chosen idiosyncratically (the first half of them were just those posting in the particular thread I was on when I decided to start taking data; others were added to try to sample some ranges of the board community).

[Cancer]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

A question for Cancer on the whole rep-experiment thing:

 

Are you charting Rep or Rep Power? You keep saying Rep, though others have said Rep Power. You could certainly derive Rep from Rep Power after subtracting the other factors out, just curious if that is what you are doing.

 

The numbers I threw out there a few days ago were strictly the "rep power" numbers, with no adjustments for the post count stuff. However, I have recorded people's post counts at the same time as I recorded the rep power, so when it comes time to "do it right" I can.

 

As for several people's comments about cyclic growth in rep, I have the analytical tools to look into that, too. Frequency analysis is more difficult with irregularly sampled data, but far from impossible.

[ghost-angel]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

I double checked .. I receive Rep from at least one person a day. I have no idea if that's normal or not though. In November so far only 3 days did not get me at least one Rep on a post.

[Old Man]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

That's pretty good. I generally get rep maybe once a week on average, though multiple times for that one post.

 

Basically what that means is 99% of what I post here is crap. Now if I could just figure out which 99% that is...

[Cancer]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

I am guessing that if there is a pattern' date=' there are 2 primary modes: slow and steady, probably linear, until an ongoing, active poster attracts ongoing attention of heavy-hitters and then moves into an exponential mode; then the "attractive poster" phenom where someone does the right things (note, I'm not implying anything, this can be genuine in nature as well as calculated) to attract immediate attention.[/quote']

 

The "slow and steady" increase is what has to be exponential, as long as the population isn't losing the high-rep people. To reduce it to the simplest possible situation, if there were just 20 of us repping each other in turn, 5 a day, then the rep levels would increase as this went on (since rep doesn't go away unless you lose a person), so each repping adds more rep to the system, so the rate of increase must escalate. That system is simple enough that one could probably solve analytically for the rate of increase with time.

 

If the high-rep people "retired" or dropped out of the rep-giving game, then this positive-feedback loop gets broken. But we haven't lost that many of the high-end folks. We continually add new people, which dilutes the rep increase from the idealized scenario described above, but without negative rep, it's still a positive-feedback system as long as you aren't losing too many people.

[RPMiller]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

It's too bad the catsuit thread is no longer around otherwise I would have posted this link, to a completely worksafe picture site that others could visit and see if they could use it.

http://fsu.facebook.com/album.php?aid=70103&page=1&l=7920d&id=5226986

[Tim]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

It's too bad the catsuit thread is no longer around otherwise I would have posted this link, to a completely worksafe picture site that others could visit and see if they could use it.

http://fsu.facebook.com/album.php?aid=70103&page=1&l=7920d&id=5226986

 

Yeah, It's to bad you can't post it.

[Cancer]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

What's the limit on the number of columns in an Excel spreadsheet? I know what the limit on rows is....

[archermoo]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

What's the limit on the number of columns in an Excel spreadsheet? I know what the limit on rows is....

 

Column IV. Whatever that works out to in numbers...

[Cancer]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

Column IV. Whatever that works out to in numbers...

 

IV is Roman numerals for 4. I'm sure I'm past that...

 

OK, thanks. I'm only up to AW so I'm OK for a while.

[RPMiller]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

255 it's all binary

[archermoo]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

IV is Roman numerals for 4. I'm sure I'm past that...

 

OK, thanks. I'm only up to AW so I'm OK for a while.

Heh, then you're barely even stressing it.

 

Here is my Rolemaster Standard System chargen workbook. It is a bit ugly, but gets the job done. Check out the Data sheet...

 

[Cancer]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

Heh' date=' then you're barely even stressing it.[/quote']

 

Yeah. It's just I've got a sheet with a lengthy time series building and I realized I'm building it up "horizontally", not "vertically". That is perpendicular to what you're supposed to do, but it happens to be much more convenient for recording. The 255 number lets me know I have a month or two before that bites me.

[archermoo]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

Yeah. It's just I've got a sheet with a lengthy time series building and I realized I'm building it up "horizontally"' date=' not "vertically". That is perpendicular to what you're supposed to do, but it happens to be much more convenient for recording. The 255 number lets me know I have a month or two before that bites me.[/quote']

 

You can always select the data and rotate it 90 degrees when you start to run out of room. Excel can do some neat stuff with cut and paste.

[Cancer]

Re: Longest Running Thread EVER

 

You can always select the data and rotate it 90 degrees when you start to run out of room. Excel can do some neat stuff with cut and paste.

 

When I hit the limit I'll probably just start a new sheet, and when time for analysis comes I'll dump all the files to their own CSV files and read 'em and concatenate the data from there. I already know Excel can't do some of the stuff I really want to do anyway. For the immediate data recording and some preliminary work, however, it is convenient.