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2022-23 NFL Thread


Pariah

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Execs very rarely go into politics, they lack the visibility.  The head coaches are the ones who tend to do that.

 

2 hours ago, Cancer said:

OTOH, sports execs are like Doritos.  Crunch all you want, there'll be more.  There's no shortage of big-talking dolts who want a big paycheck but can't think their way out of an upside-down box, and sports seem to end up with lots of those.

 

Sometimes.  Others, tho...in many cases, people are hiring former stars.  Matt Millen with Detroit.  John Lynch with the Niners.  Elway.  It often fails, I think because these guys often fail as coaches...they don't have the analytical angle, to assess talent, or perhaps the communications skills to teach it.  

 

The full story is here:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35271981/sources-nfl-teams-spent-800m-fired-coaches-execs-last-5-years

 

The thing is, fan capacity to absorb costs has yet to show a cap.  Figure:  $800M means $32M per team, on average.  That's a good starting QB, or at least 2, maybe 3 front-line players.  Top receivers, corners, and edge rushers are around $15M, I think;  top backers and linemen (other than left tackle, which is premium) are closer to $10M.  That shows how much it's costing.  Or, look at it another way:  that's about 15% of the salary cap, and it's just WHOOOSH!!! down the tubes.  It's probably not that bad, as it's possible that $800M is total dead money...not annual.  Matt Rhule's contract was 7 years, $60M total.  4 years left means roughly $35M in dead money...$8M a year.  That's still the value of a *solid* contributing player.

 

The problem, I think, is that coaches require FAT!!!!, long term (for coaching), guaranteed contracts...and extensions.  There's the clear belief that without those, the good coaches won't sign on, or don't have the backing of the team.  Some of this is also the inflation from the college coaching ranks, and the insane salaries most Power Five schools give.

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Earth sciences too.  I remember, a LONG time ago, a discussion about 100,000 decanters of endless water and flooding the planet.  Compute the amount of water it'd take to raise the sea level by one inch...it's HUGE.  A DoEW on geyser puts out, IIRC, about 1.3 acre-feet, but on a global scale, that's irrelevant.

 

The other thing...I remember a discussion with someone at work.  We were talking baseball and salaries.  He was going "yeah but turning down $5 MILLION DOLLARS...who can do that?"  When the difference was between a $30M contract offer and a $35M offer.  To me, as you note, the difference becomes negligible, because even the "low" offer is probably 5-8x more than my lifetime income, including retirement.  There's an ENORMOUS difference between $0 and $1M;  there's a much, much smaller difference between $1M and $2M.

 

Back to football...is Matt Ryan done?  Colts have benched him again.  There's no reason to play him any more;  the Colts aren't *technically* eliminated, but they need to win out, and have the Titans lose out, to win the division;  as a WC, they need the Pats, and Jets to lose out.  AND have the Raiders, Jags, Browns, and Steelers lose 2 of 3.  Ties would tweak this a bit, but it's not worth considering.  And Ryan was never more than a plausible transitional QB. 

 

Playoff clinching discussions...

https://www.sbnation.com/2022/12/20/23515602/nfl-playoff-scenarios-week-16-eagles-cowboys-bills-chiefs  

 

The potential elimination scenarios at the bottom are even more amusing.

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9 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Earth sciences too.  I remember, a LONG time ago, a discussion about 100,000 decanters of endless water and flooding the planet.  Compute the amount of water it'd take to raise the sea level by one inch...it's HUGE.  A DoEW on geyser puts out, IIRC, about 1.3 acre-feet, but on a global scale, that's irrelevant.

 

There was an official setting some years ago (I wanna say Dark Sun) that had a sea, and it was rumored that at the very bottom was a DoEW. 

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<geek-out save failed>

 

There is also a thermal loss from the planet that is "negligible" at this time.  If water vapor gets above the ozone layer, then it gets photodissociated by solar UV.  The velocity of gas molecules is a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution, and what matters is temperature and the mass of the molecules.  At the outer fringe of the atmosphere, for a light enough molecule, if it is at the upper end of the velocity distribution, its speed could be greater than escape velocity.  If that molecule is going upward and this happens, then it escapes.  With the temperature in the upper atmosphere and the planet's gravity, Earth's gravity is insufficient to hold hydrogen; it escapes "rapidly" to space, while the oxygen is retained.  (The only other gas that escapes quickly from Earth is helium.)

 

The troposphere is convective, so that it is well mixed: any gas released near the surface of Earth gets blended into the atmosphere "quickly", barring other removal processes which depend on the physical chemistry of the gas.  Immediately above it, the stratosphere is *not* convective (temperature increases upward there, due in large part to solar UV being absorbed by ozone).  The base of the stratosphere is so cold, though, that ordinarily water vapor freezes out at or below that altitude.  As long as the water freezes out below the ozone layer, then the loss of water is small.  It's not zero, but it's small. 

 

Raise the temperature of the planet, though, and that changes; the temperature at the base of the stratosphere may get above the freeze-out temperature, and then water vapor can get into and above the ozone layer.  Then water loss happens "quickly".  There's a school of thought that this happened to Venus about a billion years ago, and that early Venus was Earthlike with oceans, etc.  The luminosity of the Sun is slowly increasing (which means the energy input to the planets is increasing with time) and the critical change happened to Venus turned that planet into the utterly dehydrated hellscape that it is now.

 

In the absence of human efforts, that process will occur on Earth in about another billion years.  We seem to be trying to bring it about quicker.

 

Yes, there's some input of water to Earth via accretion of cometary and outer-asteroid matter, both of which contain water, but it seems to be smaller than the loss rate even now.

 

Sorry, I teach this stuff.

</geek-out>

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Well, it's 19-3 inside 4 minutes.  Jets haven't been able to move the ball at all, but hey, 3rd (or 4th?) string QB, what do you expect.  So we can basically call this a Jags win now.

 

What this win means is, if they don't lay an egg against the Texans...they may have the #1 pick mostly in the bag, but they're not giving up and have given some teams scares...then they play the Titans the last week of the season, with a playoff berth on the line...even if the Titans win their next 2.  The Jags already beat the Titans in Tennessee, so even if they enter a game back, winning gives them the tiebreaker.

 

Who'da thunk that....

 

The Jets, OTOH, are probably toast at this point.  

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Whoa...there are beatdowns, there's taking behind the woodshed, there's raking over the coals...

 

And then there's what the Bengals are doing to the Pats today.

 

Pats:  4 possessions.  15 total plays.  4 punts.

Bengals:  5 possessions.  4 scores;  one red-zone turnover, but after a 13 play drive.  Capped off with an 11 play TD drive in 2 minutes, scoring with 14 seconds left in the half.

Yards:  303-70

First downs:  22-3.  That's 22 first downs in the half, for the Bengals.

Plays:  48-17.  (Pats had a couple to run out the clock ending the half.)  Again...48 plays in a half.

 

There've been wider margins on the scoreboard, but looking at the overall stat sheets?  I don't recall such a totally one-sided game in a long time.  Bengals have *owned* each and every possession, offense and defense.  

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Exciting, to be sure, but also infuriating, if you're asking for teams to actually *execute*.  

 

And lo and behold, the Texans foil a last-ditch Hail Mary and BEAT the Titans.

 

Jacksonville now leads the division.

 

Pats move up to the 8 spot, but right now they're 2 back in the loss column to the Fins and Chargers.  Fins play tomorrow, Chargers Monday.  Jets are probably toast, the CBS talking heads are saying Mike White's almost certainly done for the year.  Wilson's a total bust, Flacco's a fiasco.  We've seen how that offense works on Thursday, and thinking they can improve enough to compete is a pipe dream.  Asking for a present from Santa...well, sorry, too late for that now.

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