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NFL 2023


unclevlad

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21 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Where I disagree with the article is, it's assuming the only strategy for the draft is go for the QB, when you don't have a QB.  Yeah, that's modern conventional wisdom, but that doesn't mean it's right.  Get the pieces.  Get the o-line, the d-line.

Can't agree with this more. We have talked about the step back that young QBs seem to take, but a big part of that is an O-line that cannot block and are getting them killed or receivers who can make spectacular catches but not ones that hit them in the hands (this feels like an epidemic in the NFL). Carr's brother is a great example of this, but I have seen it recently with Burrows and Lawrence.

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That the Donkeys have lost fifteen straight against the Chefs is well known. But of those losses, eight, including the last three, have been one score games. The Broncos often seem to play better against KC. 

 

Just, you know, not well enough to win. 

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Chiefs' defense has been better than what you might expect;  before Thursday, it was about 8th or 9th in YPG, and tied with Buffalo for 5th in points per game.  Those obviously improved.  So, OK, we can say that was a factor...but even more, it looks like the Bronco offense is getting worse.  Wilson's season rating dropped about 6-7 points;  his QBR dropped about 5...and it was low to begin with.  By QBR, he dropped to 28th in the league...sandwiched between the 2 New York QBs, then it's Tannehill, Pickett, and Young.  The Athletic built their own, similar synthetic metric they call the Quarterback Reliability Index;  Wilson's 25th there.  Kirk Cousins is 26th...which suggests it's an interesting metric, at least to me.  They're using data since the start of the '22 season.

 

BTW...guess who #1 in both metrics is.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Cancer said:

 

This is making the move, considering all its implications, arguably the worst ever, altho the Deshaun Watson trade/contract is very similar.  But the Browns still have some cap space.

 

The other thing this suggests is, it'll be a fire sale *soon* as the Broncos ditch salary.  No one will trade for Wilson.  

 

The salary cap situation probably means Denver is going to be *worse* next year, if that's possible.

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The thing is, although he is drastically overpaid, I'm not sure Wilson is the problem on the field.  I watched the game against KC, and Wilson seemed like he was playing about as well as could be expected.  His problem was that his receivers weren't getting open.  And that's the weird part to me because Jeudy and Sutton and (especially) Mims are pretty good at their jobs.

 

What struck me was the offensive game plan.  If there's one thing Payton is known for it's scheming receivers open.  His offenses always featured lots of crossing routes, rubs, and overloads to throw off defenders, and heavy involvement of the TEs and RBs in the passing game to just flood the field with eligible receivers.  None of that happened on Thursday.  Receivers were running straightforward, easily covered out routes.  TEs were targeted twice and I'm not sure RBs were targeted at all--certainly not beyond the LOS.

 

So I'm a little mystified as to what's happening in Denver.  Do the players just not get Payton's offense?  Are they just poorly suited for it?  Does Payton just not get along with Wilson?  Is he actively trying to sabotage him?  Was Payton even the offensive mastermind in NO or was that all Brees? 

 

Unfortunately none of these explanations come with a quick fix, and recent rumors that Denver is putting key players on the trade block strongly suggest that leadership is waving a white flag.  It's so disappointing--I was certain that Hackett was the one big problem for the franchise.  Now I have no idea.

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Caught most of the 2nd half of the London game.  STILL don't trust Lamar Jackson.  More notable...Tannehill has to be near the top of QBs to be benched for performance, not injury.  His numbers are awful;  30th in both rating and QBR coming into the week, and absolutely disastrous today, before he left the game.  8/16 for 60 net passing yards, and a pick.  Also, Tannehill's contract expires this season, with the exception of 2 years' worth of prorated bonus.  That's under $10M, so even as a cap hit, it's not bad.  

 

If Tannehill continues to play, then IMO it's a serious indictment that Malik Willis isn't an NFL caliber QB.

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Be glad the Raiders beat the Pats...and how they did.  Jimmy G couldn't play the 2nd half...and the Pats *still* can't overcome, which is a deep statement about the state they're in.  And yeah, OK, disliking the Raiders is entirely understandable, but they're a terrible team.  Wins?  Broncos, Packers, Pats.  Barely, in all cases.  Packers are actually ranked 20 right now (Pro Football News' rankings, counting most of today's games)...Broncos 28, Pats 29.  Raiders are 25.  They're 3-3 but that's based on a soft schedule.  They do still have Bears, Giants, Vikes, and Broncos, so 7 wins is possible, if Jimmy G can play.  (With Hoyer...eww.  Not good.)  But...Lions, Jets, Dolphins, Chiefs twice, and Chargers.  And the Colts...which may prove to be another they should win.  Leave that in the indeterminate column.

 

What the HECK is going in with Buffalo, too?  Down 6-0 at home to the Giants???  But they're on the move now...

 

This is yet another day where Chaos Reigns.  Niners and Eagles lose, who'da thunk it?  

 

EDIT:  and it could've been a triple.  Bills play bad on offense for much of the game...make a number of execution errors late, Allen missing an open receiver that would've resulted in a game-ending first down, then a missed FG giving the Giants a decent window.  Bills have to hold off 2 plays inside the 10...first got called a pass interference on em, it was egregious.  Second *could* have been.

 

So...another game where a nominally far superior team plays down to the level of its competition.  Arguably, THAT is the NFL's New Normal.

 

 

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