NFL 2023

[Cancer]

Yeah, I'm glad I watched less than ten minutes of it.  Not even the inexplicable things appearing in the closed captions could raise the entertainment level.

[slikmar]

13 hours ago, unclevlad said:

Be glad the Raiders beat the Pats...and how they did.  Jimmy G couldn't play the 2nd half...and the Pats *still* can't overcome, which is a deep statement about the state they're in.  And yeah, OK, disliking the Raiders is entirely understandable, but they're a terrible team.  Wins?  Broncos, Packers, Pats.  Barely, in all cases.  Packers are actually ranked 20 right now (Pro Football News' rankings, counting most of today's games)...Broncos 28, Pats 29.  Raiders are 25.  They're 3-3 but that's based on a soft schedule.  They do still have Bears, Giants, Vikes, and Broncos, so 7 wins is possible, if Jimmy G can play.  (With Hoyer...eww.  Not good.)  But...Lions, Jets, Dolphins, Chiefs twice, and Chargers.  And the Colts...which may prove to be another they should win.  Leave that in the indeterminate column.

 

What the HECK is going in with Buffalo, too?  Down 6-0 at home to the Giants???  But they're on the move now...

 

This is yet another day where Chaos Reigns.  Niners and Eagles lose, who'da thunk it?  

 

EDIT:  and it could've been a triple.  Bills play bad on offense for much of the game...make a number of execution errors late, Allen missing an open receiver that would've resulted in a game-ending first down, then a missed FG giving the Giants a decent window.  Bills have to hold off 2 plays inside the 10...first got called a pass interference on em, it was egregious.  Second *could* have been.

 

So...another game where a nominally far superior team plays down to the level of its competition.  Arguably, THAT is the NFL's New Normal.

 

 

Don't forget not getting the FG at the end of the first half when Taylor inexplicably switched plays to a run that was stuffed with no timeouts left with 13 secs left, iirc, and the time ran out. Think they could have used those 3 points at the end of the game?

[unclevlad]

6 minutes ago, slikmar said:

Don't forget not getting the FG at the end of the first half when Taylor inexplicably switched plays to a run that was stuffed with no timeouts left with 13 secs left, iirc, and the time ran out. Think they could have used those 3 points at the end of the game?

 

Was watching Rangers-Astros, so I didn't see it...but just watched it.  

 

Situational recognition has been a skill on the decline for years.  The flip side, IIRC...Bills had a second and 2, ran a funky misdirection play with a lot going on in the backfield...and got stuffed for a 2-3 yard loss from a defender coming off the edge.  It was like...what?  Straight-up runs have been fine, you try this cutesy looking thing.  And IIRC this forced a 3rd and medium where they miss the pass...it was open, but missed.  And the first down would've come close to sealing the game.

 

There seems to be a tendency among coaches to be too cute or too clever at times, as well.  Players go for the Hero Play;  coaches try for the Genius Play.

[unclevlad]

Can you hear that sound?  It's sawing.

 

Frank Reich ceded playcalling to his OC.  From ESPN:

 

Quote

Reich has adamant from the day he took the job that he was best fitted to call plays for Young, the top pick of the draft, but that one day he would turn the duties over.

 

I hear the sound of a chainsaw in the background too, I think....

 

If the OC can get Young to play better, which is a bar already buried in the sand...Young has the lowest QBR in the league...Reich might keep his job simply because the team may not want to lose the OC.  That's predicated on significant improvement.  Yeah, Reich's at exceptional risk in this case;  there's no reason to keep a coach whose major promise has collapsed like a hot air balloon in an ice storm.  Removing him, tho, effectlively guarantees a change at OC as well.  Still...

 

--little/no improvement...Reich's out before the end of the season.

--moderate improvement...Reich lasts through the season but fired after the last game

 

Reich's coaching career may be at risk, too.  Yeah, no one can blame him for Luck retiring, but since then?  Indy's QBs have performed at a non-Manning-Broncoesque level.  Brissett, Rivers, Wentz, Matt Ryan, Ehringer...?  And now the utter failure with Young?    

[Cancer]

"Genius play": It's been true for quite some time

[Starlord]

18 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

Can you hear that sound?  It's sawing.

 

Frank Reich ceded playcalling to his OC.  From ESPN:

 

 

We Bengals fans have been waiting 3 years for that to happen here....

Edited October 16, 2023 by Starlord

[unclevlad]

Disney's monetization continues.

 

MNF streams...shut down on both ABC.com and ESPN.com.  I don't think it's new this week, but it's new this year.  At least, neither site's allowing it, and the various web sites are referring me to Fubo, Sling, etc...where the Disney bundles are.

 

 

[unclevlad]

Read through 2 different sets of NFL rankings now.

 

Same comment on both, for Tennessee...rest of the season may need to be about the QB position.  Tannehill is not working.  Even if he can come back, should the Titans bail now, and let their #33 pick get some time?  Give their current #2 some time?  They're 2-4 now, albeit in a fairly soft division overall.  Thinking you can do something with Tannehill, tho, could be a very poor long-term move.

 

Of course, in the NFL, long term thinking means 3 weeks from now...

 

EDIT:  LIGHT week coming up.  6 teams on byes.  Might actually be an interesting TNF;  Jacksonville at NO.  They're both in that mushy middle, so a win in this kind of toss-up game helps the playoff chances.  Besides, neither team gets much real coverage outside their immediate area, so this is an uncommon look.  OK, Jacksonville had 2 London games...but let's get real, the ratings there are terrible.  The 2 ratable games...the ESPN+ game can't be rated...not counting the week 2 and 3 MNF doubleheaders, where there's a clear risk of audience split...was Chicago-Washington on TNF.  TNF, and a terrible matchup...still got a 5.6.  The 2 rated London games...2.7 and 2.3.

 

Last observation...the usual monthly trip to the chiro was today.  He's a Packers fan (but not a Rodgers fan, so it's ok.)  He pointed out scoring was down.  Hmm...

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/points-per-game

 

In '22, 11 teams averaged under 20...but the low was basically 17.  This year, it's 13...and 2 are at 12;  6 total are below the worst average from '22.  And we haven't had bad weather games.  I can't find anything about full, league-wide scoring, but there certainly are numerous incompetent offenses this year.

[slikmar]

Anyone notice an uptick in referees calling illegal man downfield, even on plays shouldn't be?

[unclevlad]

And the Colt Quarterback Curse continues.  This time?  Anthony Richardson needs shoulder surgery...gone for the rest of the season.   They have absolutely no Luck whatsoever....................

 

[Old Man]

2 hours ago, unclevlad said:

And the Colt Quarterback Curse continues.  This time?  Anthony Richardson needs shoulder surgery...gone for the rest of the season.   They have absolutely no Luck whatsoever....................

 

 

Ironically the Colts have one of the better offensive lines this season, notwithstanding a couple of injuries.  But then they drafted a running quarterback and ran him into the teeth of the opposing defense.

[Old Man]

Found a decent analysis of what's wrong with the Broncos this season.  In a nutshell, Payton seems to have tried to plug in his old Saints offense, but Wilson's height and downfield vision prevent him from succeeding with it.  Meanwhile Wilson keeps trying to play sandlot football in Payton's highly structured offense.  And now the situation is so broken that Payton is calling increasingly conservative plays, which only compounds the problem.

 

 

[unclevlad]

Interesting video.

 

WIlson's reads were a problem last year...and yeah, I don't remember him making many back-side reads at all.  There's still plenty of criticism for Payton;  failure to coach up the reads...like the play where the pre-snap said inside, the post-snap said outside...and the receiver continued inside.  Payton's hand is almost certainly all over this offense, so that points right back to him.

 

I'm also *always* inclined to accept that the coach might be being the prima donna, because it's TRUE so often.  Prima donna or martinet...or both.  

 

Bottom line...without even looking at the rest of the schedule, the over/under for Bronco wins for the year?  What...3.5?

 

It also argues that Payton won't be the coach next year, unless some progress can be made, in getting he and Wilson into the same playbook...much less onto the same page in the book.

[Old Man]

2 hours ago, unclevlad said:

It also argues that Payton won't be the coach next year, unless some progress can be made, in getting he and Wilson into the same playbook...much less onto the same page in the book.

 

Between Payton's exorbitant salary and Wilson's even more exorbitant contract (and cap hit), the Broncos are destroyed if they have to jettison either one.  You'd think there would be a way to get them to work together.

[Cancer]

There have been infrequent hints over the years that Wilson's success in Seattle came from entering the franchise when the defense peaked hard, and the default offense was handoff to Lynch; the passing game was adapted to suit Wilson's tendencies, rather than oblige Wilson to learn a new system.  If that is correct, then in consequence, Wilson was never required to "mature" as a quarterback and add tools.  Carroll being a notoriously run-first coach I can see that.  That may be an overly simplistic view, as well.  OTOH, in the Broncos-Seahawks game in 2022, several long-time Seahawks players asserted that during that game, Wilson was still using the signals and audibles that he'd used in Seattle, rather than a different system with the new club.

Edited October 22, 2023 by Cancer

[Old Man]

41 minutes ago, Cancer said:

There have been infrequent hints over the years that Wilson's success in Seattle came from entering the franchise when the defense peaked hard, and the default offense was handoff to Lynch; the passing game was adapted to suit Wilson's tendencies, rather than oblige Wilson to learn a new system.  If that is correct, then in consequence, Wilson was never required to "mature" as a quarterback and add tools.  Carroll being a notoriously run-first coach I can see that. 

 

It might even be the inverse of this.  My perception was that Wilson's ability to scramble let Carroll delegate the passing game to his quarterback and save money on the offensive line.  Why draw up a creative passing offense if the QB is running for his life all the time?  And so Russ devolved into a sandlot QB.  (From what I have seen of the Geno-era Seahawks, the pass game is still not all that creative, it's more that the investment is in the O-line and not the defense.)

 

Quote

OTOH, in the Broncos-Seahawks game in 2022, several long-time Seahawks players asserted that during that game, Wilson was still using the signals and audibles that he'd used in Seattle, rather than a different system with the new club.

 

Or, Russell Wilson could be a total diva.

 

Or both.

[Pariah]

John Fox won a division title and a playoff game in Denver with Tim Tebow as his quarterback. How? He adjusted his offense to meet the skill set of his personnel.

 

That a so-called offensive guru like Sean Payton can't get the most out of a veteran Super Bowl winning quarterback suggests a lack of imagination. Or a stubborn unwillingness to adapt. 

[Grailknight]

13 hours ago, Old Man said:

 

Between Payton's exorbitant salary and Wilson's even more exorbitant contract (and cap hit), the Broncos are destroyed if they have to jettison either one.  You'd think there would be a way to get them to work together.

 

Wilson's contract is hard to deal with because of salary cap rules, so they're stuck with him.

 

But while there's no limit on a coach's pay, Payton's 18-million-dollar salary also doesn't restrict team spending in any way. It's not a small amount but they can move on from him without it affecting team spending in any appreciable way. 

[unclevlad]

I don't know how much Payton's contract is guaranteed, but firing him is still relatively cheap because whatever amount they have to pay him, doesn't count against the salary cap.  That's the killer for getting rid of Wilson;  they could only spend about 60, 65% of what every other team can spend.  They'd have about $130M or so...to fill the entire roster.  That's it.  And cap numbers are weird because they can be shifted forward...but the Broncos are shown as $20M over the cap for '24, already.  

 

 

[Cancer]

Yeah, Wilson's contract is catastrophically stupid and on nobody but ownership.  Frankly, even if you were to flip the W-L columns from Wilson's time in Denver, the contract would still be catastrophically stupid and crippling the team.

[unclevlad]

Then, of course, they double down on the Stupid, tossing a ridiculous contract at Payton, AND throwing away 2 draft picks.

 

A thought here.  When's the last time a retread coach like this, worked out?  Maybe the notion of "working out" is a little too vague...for example, McCarthy hasn't made the Cowboys any better...but it seems like, MOST of the time, a losing coach is a losing coach is a losing coach.  Oh, wait...Andy Reid has been doing OK in KC.  John Fox...with Denver, altho how much of that was Peyton?  (And Fox was a failure in Chicago.)  But...it's rare, it feels like.  OK, I think the Broncos were *extremely* gunshy about going for a newer, younger coach after the Hackett fiasco (and, let's face it, McDaniel and Vance Joseph). 

 

Wow.  Did not expect this.  Fox switches from the Detroit-Baltimore game, over to a bad Falcons-Saints game...about 5 minutes into the 2nd half.  Lions fail to convert on 4th and goal?  That's enough of that!  35-0 Ravens now.

 

And what the HECK is wrong in Buffalo???  Lose to the Jags, barely sneak by the terrible Giants, and now they're trying to make Mac Jones a Pro Bowler...18/21 for 199.  PATRIOTS are up 22-10 pending the extra point???  Halfway through the 4th.

[unclevlad]

Speaking of bad football...

 

Atlanta's on a nice 90+ yard drive, they've got it inside the 10.   QB bootleg is WIDE open to the left;  he's got the corner.

 

He also has the ball in his RIGHT hand.

 

Yes, it gets swatted out by a Bucs DB.  Loose ball sails over the goal line, then OB.  Touchback for the Bucs, giving them life inside 7 minutes left.

 

Schlereth is playing apologist..."QBs aren't used to switching"...horse hockey.  MANY QBs in high school and college are frequent ball carriers.  The QB had tucked the ball in and was running for *several* yards before anyone was closing.  There's no excuse I'll buy.

[Cancer]

36 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

When's the last time a retread coach like this, worked out? 

 

Long time ago, but Mike Holmgren did OK for his time in Seattle, though he doesn't seem to match what you mean by "retreat coach".

[unclevlad]

Yeah, Holmgren wasn't a retread;  he decided to go for complete control of all operations.  Note that it took him 5 years to win a playoff game.  Would he have that much time now?  Doubtful.

 

And Buffalo comes back to take the lead...but then gives up a 75 yard drive, letting the Pats score inside 15 seconds.  The NFL's getting as erratic as MLB.

 

[death tribble]

Cleveland win by a point. Will Cygnia be pleased ?

 

If the Browns and win go to the Superbowl will unclevlad become uncleveland ?