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tkdguy

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The US's credit rating is far better than Russia's (with good reason). Technically, BB+ is quite not junk - depending on which definition you use, it's the very lowest step of what's considered investment grade, or in other words, 1 notch above junk. What "Junk" means is just "speculative/high risk". That's certainly the case for Russian sovereign debt. Russia got into a similar pickle in 1998 and defaulted on its debts, and it may well happen again. The story is depressingly similar.

 

in 1997, the Russian government was grappling with the cost of the military intervention in Chechnya, and chronic problems with corruption and crony capitalism which were draining their internal finances. When the oil price dropped due to the global economic slowdown after the popping of the internet stock bubble, the problems became too big to handle. The ruble fell by 2/3rds, despite hefty Russian government intervention to try and prop it up, and the country entered a long recession. The government's reaction - instead of recognising the real cause was their own incompetence, corruption, military adventurism and over-reliance on oil revenue - was increasingly hysterical outbursts that the Americans had engineered the whole thing.

 

Heard this before? What's highly amusing or desperately sad (depending on which side of Walpole's fence you fall on) is that the Soviet Union imploded due to ... you guessed it - their leader's own incompetence and corruption, the high costs of military adventurism (this time Afghanistan) and over-reliance on oil revenue (which collapsed in the late 1980's for the same reason as now: overproduction driven by previous high prices). They blamed the US then, too, but the truth is, it was entirely their own fault.

 

The good news is that the fallout from another severe Russian recession is likely to be far less today than it was in 1998 - back then Russia accounted for about 4% of Global GDP. Today it's only a bit over half that.

 

cheers, Mark

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Well, this time around the US seems to be at least trying to earn the "it's all their fault" designation, with our sanctions decrying anybody else's military imperialism.

 

The Russian economy would be floundering even without sanctions. And honestly, not only are the sanctions put in place are a pretty mild response to what appears to be naked aggression by Russia, including the shooting down of a commercial airliner by their puppets, but the sanctions are a response to what appears to be absolutely senseless military adventurism. The US can (and should) take full blame for the cluster**** that is the Arabian peninsula right now. It's the direct result of their own mindless and equally unprofitable (in every sense of the word) military adventurism.

 

But the US being totally in the wrong in 2003 is no reason for other countries to be totally in the wrong in 2013. And not responding to naked in-your-face aggression right on your own doorstep is not really an option. Frankly, I'd rather see the US and the EU try to punish Russian stupidity via sanctions first, than by starting with sending weapons and troops to Ukraine. 

 

I understand that Putin feels threatened by the EU rolling up to his door. But that has less to do with EU "expansionism" than with the former Warsaw Pact countries responding to decades of Russian occupation and oppression with an acute desire to put as much distance between themselves and Russia as possible. Russia's current ravaging of Ukraine is more of the same - Putin has done more to boost the desire of Ukrainians to join the EU than a generation of Eurocrats ever could have managed. Basically, Putin seems to have taken the collapse of the Soviet Union as a blueprint for Russia, not a warning.

 

cheers, Mark

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The Russian economy would be floundering even without sanctions. And honestly, not only are the sanctions put in place are a pretty mild response to what appears to be naked aggression by Russia, including the shooting down of a commercial airliner by their puppets, but the sanctions are a response to what appears to be absolutely senseless military adventurism. The US can (and should) take full blame for the cluster**** that is the Arabian peninsula right now. It's the direct result of their own mindless and equally unprofitable (in every sense of the word) military adventurism.

 

But the US being totally in the wrong in 2003 is no reason for other countries to be totally in the wrong in 2013. And not responding to naked in-your-face aggression right on your own doorstep is not really an option. Frankly, I'd rather see the US and the EU try to punish Russian stupidity via sanctions first, than by starting with sending weapons and troops to Ukraine. 

 

I understand that Putin feels threatened by the EU rolling up to his door. But that has less to do with EU "expansionism" than with the former Warsaw Pact countries responding to decades of Russian occupation and oppression with an acute desire to put as much distance between themselves and Russia as possible. Russia's current ravaging of Ukraine is more of the same - Putin has done more to boost the desire of Ukrainians to join the EU than a generation of Eurocrats ever could have managed. Basically, Putin seems to have taken the collapse of the Soviet Union as a blueprint for Russia, not a warning.

 

cheers, Mark

 

Guys, guys, relax. The world is suffering from deficient consumer demand right now. People need more money in their pocket to spend, is the problem. Well,  you can't just be giving out money to anyone,  LOL obvs.

 

But, hey, you can buy tanks, and the tank factory can hire a buncha guys, and give 'em lots of OT to make even more tanks, and then everyone will be rolling in the benjamins.

 

Prob', though. People are all, like, "we don't need more tanks 11!1"

 

And you can't just say, "NO, RONG, need more tanks LOL!" Cuz' some reason. It was explained to me, but I forget. Something about doxing and death threats not being good ways to win debates, needing actual arguments? Cra-a-a-zy. Anyway, put polonium in that guy's tea, but I do listen.

 

So, argument. That Putin guy be Hitler. Need guns to fight Hitler. Stands to reason. (Cool, New Jersey!) Okay, but what if you're Russian? Easy! Americans like Nazis! (Or Ukrainians, same same.) See, works both ways. Also, if you're European, you can say Putin and Americans like Nazis. Then you need twice as many tanks, which is awesome on account of Europe needing even more bling.

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Guys, guys, relax. The world is suffering from deficient consumer demand right now. People need more money in their pocket to spend, is the problem. Well,  you can't just be giving out money to anyone,  LOL obvs.

 

But, hey, you can buy tanks, and the tank factory can hire a buncha guys, and give 'em lots of OT to make even more tanks, and then everyone will be rolling in the benjamins.

 

Prob', though. People are all, like, "we don't need more tanks 11!1"

 

And you can't just say, "NO, RONG, need more tanks LOL!" Cuz' some reason. It was explained to me, but I forget. Something about doxing and death threats not being good ways to win debates, needing actual arguments? Cra-a-a-zy. Anyway, put polonium in that guy's tea, but I do listen.

 

So, argument. That Putin guy be Hitler. Need guns to fight Hitler. Stands to reason. (Cool, New Jersey!) Okay, but what if you're Russian? Easy! Americans like Nazis! (Or Ukrainians, same same.) See, works both ways. Also, if you're European, you can say Putin and Americans like Nazis. Then you need twice as many tanks, which is awesome on account of Europe needing even more bling.

 

Please disregard the preceding fatuous and juvenile comment. As a responsible Canadian voter in solidarity with my Ukrainian-Canadian fellow citizens, I firmly believe that it is incumbent on the Canadian government to support the Ukrainian motherland in its democratic aspirations against the revanchist and quasi-fascistic nationalism of the Russian Federation. It is clear that only boots on the ground will suffice, and that the Canadian Armed Forces have been too far reduced in human resources to provide this support.

 

It is for this reason that I support the recruiting of large numbers of youth into the Canadian Armed Forces. While it might be objected that demographics makes this unpromising, it will be noted that a number of low-wage, non-unionised firms in the grocery sector continue to rely on labour meeting this profile. Thus, there does exist a reservoir of potential service people, in the form of the workforce of these firms.

 

I would also like to take this opportunity to offer the services of my employer in providing logistics support in the area of grocery goods for a new infrastructure of training camps.  

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The Russian economy would be floundering even without sanctions. And honestly, not only are the sanctions put in place are a pretty mild response to what appears to be naked aggression by Russia, including the shooting down of a commercial airliner by their puppets, but the sanctions are a response to what appears to be absolutely senseless military adventurism. The US can (and should) take full blame for the cluster**** that is the Arabian peninsula right now. It's the direct result of their own mindless and equally unprofitable (in every sense of the word) military adventurism.

 

But the US being totally in the wrong in 2003 is no reason for other countries to be totally in the wrong in 2013. And not responding to naked in-your-face aggression right on your own doorstep is not really an option. Frankly, I'd rather see the US and the EU try to punish Russian stupidity via sanctions first, than by starting with sending weapons and troops to Ukraine. 

 

I understand that Putin feels threatened by the EU rolling up to his door. But that has less to do with EU "expansionism" than with the former Warsaw Pact countries responding to decades of Russian occupation and oppression with an acute desire to put as much distance between themselves and Russia as possible. Russia's current ravaging of Ukraine is more of the same - Putin has done more to boost the desire of Ukrainians to join the EU than a generation of Eurocrats ever could have managed. Basically, Putin seems to have taken the collapse of the Soviet Union as a blueprint for Russia, not a warning.

 

cheers, Mark

seems dead on to me.  

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