Political Discussion Thread (With Rules)

[Lord Liaden]

4 hours ago, Pariah said:

NY Republicans call for George Santos to resign, DC GOP leaders silent

 

IMO the Republicans face a dilemma here. On one hand, Santos is not only a serious public-relations liability, but he scammed wealthy Republican donors to the GOP, the most cardinal of sins in their eyes. OTOH forcing Santos to resign will require another election to replace him, which might cost them a seat to the Dems after this fiasco. Not to mention that making one of their colleagues resign because he lied, may not be a precedent the rest of them want to set.

[Old Man]

Just now, Lord Liaden said:

 

IMO the Republicans face a dilemma here. On one hand, Santos is not only a serious public-relations liability, but he scammed wealthy Republican donors to the GOP, the most cardinal of sins in their eyes. OTOH forcing Santos to resign will require another election to replace him, which might cost them a seat to the Dems after this fiasco. Not to mention that making one of their colleagues resign because he lied, may not be a precedent the rest of them want to set.

 

The GOP isn't going to force a member out when they only have a six vote margin.  Not for this.  To be voted out, Santos would have to either publicly discuss GOP orgies in Washington, or admit that the 2020 election was legitimate.

[unclevlad]

The procedure should Santos resign, from NBC New York:

 

Quote

Under the House Vacancy Claus in the U.S. Constitution, states have "Executive Authority" to hold a special election if a seat in the House becomes vacant. Each state can determine its own timing and circumstances of the election. In the state of New York, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul would have 10 days to call a special election to replace Santos, which would have to be held between 70 to 80 days from the date of that proclamation -- if Santos resigns this year, during the first session of a Congress.

 

That said, I agree that the narrow margin augurs against the national Party and Congressional leaders pushing him out, particularly so soon after the Speaker election fiasco.  More likely, figure he'll be given the most boring, invisible committee assignments they can give him, and make it clear that his role is to vote the Right Way and keep his mouth shut.

[Lord Liaden]

Local, state and federal officials have launched various investigations into whether Santos committed any crimes related to his personal finances, fundraising and lying about his life story.

[unclevlad]

Oh man.  NYT got his resume.  The work history feels like a red flag, as he changed jobs a LOT, in positions where the kind of performance he claimed would suggest serious promotion potential.  He claims MBA from NYU, and not only graduating from Baruch (a CUNY branch)...but summa cum laude and in the top 1%.

 

But there's not a lot anyone can do about it.  The House can't refuse to seat him...that goes back to the Adam Clayton Powell case.  He can't be recalled;  it's not allowed by the Constitution to start with, and NY doesn't have recalls for government positions generally.  There seems a good chance he's gonna get burned on some fraud charges, but I don't think even a conviction would compel his removal.

 

 

[BNakagawa]

"General Armageddon" demoted, Gerosimov promoted to head "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-appoints-gerasimov-top-commander-ukraine-2023-01-11/

[Cygnia]

https://switzerlandtimes.ch/world/switzerland-blocks-spanish-arms-for-ukraine/

[Pattern Ghost]

6 hours ago, Cygnia said:

https://switzerlandtimes.ch/world/switzerland-blocks-spanish-arms-for-ukraine/

 

I get a security error on that page, and no other news sites seem to be covering the story. Might be suspect.

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, Pattern Ghost said:

 

I get a security error on that page, and no other news sites seem to be covering the story. Might be suspect.

 

Had no problem reading it.  The gist:  Spain is trying to sell arms they obtained from Switzerland.  They're on a list of export-restricted items by Swiss law...why, wasn't stated, but one plausible case would be "only to NATO countries."  Ukraine isn't a NATO country.  IIRC, it wasn't so much "blocking" in an active sense, it was passive...they haven't said "yes."

 

So, yes, I get your concern, and it could be fake news, but I'm more inclined to treat it as an overly terse --> misleading headline.

[Pattern Ghost]

So, it sounds more like running afoul of something like our ITAR rules, more or less.

 

Here's what Malwarebytes gave me when it blocked the site:

 

 

And here's the Firefox error message:

 

 

Sorry for the size of those, the Windows Snipping Tool blows stuff up a bit.

Sometimes these types of warnings are overly cautious, but sometimes the site's actually been compromised. I err on the side of caution. An online site security checker doesn't see any issues with it, so it could just be they have a technical glitch going on. On the third hand, the same checker says it's a WordPress site, which tend to be easy to compromise. Their WP version, theme, and most of their plugins are out of date. Those are all security vulnerabilities.

So, rolls the dice and take your chances. Seems like a legit site on an iffy platform, I guess. And they exaggerate a bit.

[DShomshak]

If it matters, lately on BBC and ATC I've heard reports that Poland's government has announced its intent to give German-built Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but needs Germany's permission to do so. Since I don't follow the international arms trade as a rule, this is the first I've heard of such re-export permissions, but I guess it's a thing for some arms systems and some countries. Switzerland may do the same with weapons that it sells, no matter who they are sold to.

 

Dean Shomshak

[unclevlad]

41 minutes ago, DShomshak said:

If it matters, lately on BBC and ATC I've heard reports that Poland's government has announced its intent to give German-built Leopard tanks to Ukraine, but needs Germany's permission to do so. Since I don't follow the international arms trade as a rule, this is the first I've heard of such re-export permissions, but I guess it's a thing for some arms systems and some countries. Switzerland may do the same with weapons that it sells, no matter who they are sold to.

 

Dean Shomshak

 

Make that, as I understand, MOST countries, and pretty much almost anything relatively recent.  You don't want them re-sold to your enemies...so they understand what you're operating.  BAD idea.

 

In other news, well...the catastrophe may be imminent.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Congress earlier today that the US may hit the debt ceiling next week.  One can imagine how certain individuals will take that.  I wouldn't be surprised if there's enough Republicans who'll vote for raising the celing, this time...but even if so, we'll probably see how they act to delay and impede as much as they can.  Including a motion to vacate if it looks like it'll pass.

 

 

 

 

[Lord Liaden]

Let them thump their chests over it as much as they want. Not raising the ceiling on America's debts will suspend all payments to government employees (including the military) and everyone getting social benefits. It will cause America to default on its debt payments, making interest rates and inflation soar, and stock prices and the country's credit rating plummet. Everyone in America will take a big financial hit, including the wealthy donors who finance the GOP and line the pockets of their bought Congressional lackeys.

 

If anyone in the House of Representatives is ignorant of that reality, it will be made clear to them before the deadline for default.

[Old Man]

38 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

Let them thump their chests over it as much as they want. Not raising the ceiling on America's debts will suspend all payments to government employees (including the military) and everyone getting social benefits. It will cause America to default on its debt payments, making interest rates and inflation soar, and stock prices and the country's credit rating plummet. Everyone in America will take a big financial hit, including the wealthy donors who finance the GOP and line the pockets of their bought Congressional lackeys.

 

If anyone in the House of Representatives is ignorant of that reality, it will be made clear to them before the deadline for default.

 

They're all well aware of that reality.  It's the reality they want.  The wealthy donors they answer to are all chaos-is-a-ladder types who benefit from recessions as opportunities to buy at a discount, and will stop at nothing to make government look dysfunctional and shrink it until it can be "drowned in a bathtub".

[Lord Liaden]

I have to strongly disagree. The majority of those wealthy donors are not rampant speculators, they're established-money types for whom instability means less investor security, which means less investment and less profit for them. They want chaos for us peasants because it makes it easier for them to manipulate us. They most emphatically do not want it when it impacts their bottom line.

 

And you're ignoring all the other issues I mentioned, like stock prices go down! Drastically diminished money among the general populace means consumer spending goes down! Higher interest rates, higher inflation and lower credit rating means the value of their American dollars goes down! That's a massive hit directly in the fat cats' wallets.

 

That is not the reality they want.

[unclevlad]

You're both right.  Old Man is specifically naming the extreme faction;  you're talking about the mainstream.  

 

I don't think the extemists generally *have* the same kind of wealthy backers...Boebert?  Could be wrong there.  And they won't care, because it'll be easy to blame Biden.  

 

Also, LL, understand:  demanding spending cuts when raising the debt ceiling was a CORNERSTONE demand of their little club.  So I suspect they'll consider this an early test of THEIR conviction.  Reining in government spending is a near-religious tenet with them, and Here's Their Big Chance To Start!!!

 

As I say, I think it'll ultimately pass, because enough Republicans will vote for it...but they may try to compel spending cuts to be considered ASAP after things stabilize a bit.  

[Old Man]

55 minutes ago, unclevlad said:

You're both right.  Old Man is specifically naming the extreme faction;  you're talking about the mainstream. 

 

I don't see any difference.  147 House Republicans voted to overturn the 2020 election after the events of 1/6.  There is no "mainstream" or "establishment" GOP; they are now the party of treason and sabotage.  Candidates like Kinzinger and Liz Cheney can't even make it out of a primary.

 

I hope to hell that I'm wrong.

[unclevlad]

"Mainstream" might have been a bad word choice.  

 

Voting to overturn the election was a move in the political sphere.  Those who voted for it, are simply trying to ride that wave.  I'm more inclined to go with LL, tho, with many of them, especially the pre-Trump members.  They're perfectly happy to work to suborn the election process, but they'll be much more cautious WRT a move that will upend the economy.  

[Pattern Ghost]

This isn't the first time they've played chicken with the debt ceiling. I think it's political grandstanding for the ignorant among their base, and they'll cave in after they pushed it as far as the holders of their purse strings will allow.

[Lord Liaden]

I acknowledge that there's a faction in the Republican Party that thinks that all government is bad and want to tear it down. They also think that likes and retweets and the most insistent voices on social media, translate to widespread voter support. They play to those people because they also crave the attention and notoriety that comes with it.

 

But if they enjoy the status and privileges their legislative positions give them, they won't like what happens if they piss off the people who finance the machine that put them there.

[archer]

21 hours ago, unclevlad said:

 

Had no problem reading it.  The gist:  Spain is trying to sell arms they obtained from Switzerland.  They're on a list of export-restricted items by Swiss law...why, wasn't stated, but one plausible case would be "only to NATO countries."  Ukraine isn't a NATO country.  IIRC, it wasn't so much "blocking" in an active sense, it was passive...they haven't said "yes."

 

So, yes, I get your concern, and it could be fake news, but I'm more inclined to treat it as an overly terse --> misleading headline.

 

It's not uncommon for a country selling arms to stipulate that those arms can't be resold without express permission.

 

And Switzerland has refused permission for other countries to resell Swiss armaments to Ukraine earlier in the war. So this refusal sounds pretty legit.

[archer]

35 minutes ago, Pattern Ghost said:

This isn't the first time they've played chicken with the debt ceiling. I think it's political grandstanding for the ignorant among their base, and they'll cave in after they pushed it as far as the holders of their purse strings will allow.

 

That's been precisely what's happened in the past. 

 

The problem they face at the moment is that they've been electing ignorant people from their base to become Congressmen.

 

So it's really an open question over when they'll reach the tipping point of not being ABLE to swerve at the last moment when playing chicken with the debt ceiling.

[unclevlad]

1 hour ago, archer said:

 

That's been precisely what's happened in the past. 

 

The problem they face at the moment is that they've been electing ignorant people from their base to become Congressmen.

 

So it's really an open question over when they'll reach the tipping point of not being ABLE to swerve at the last moment when playing chicken with the debt ceiling.

 

Plus, that particular minority has been given the means to create chaos and potentially upend normal House business.  So, sure, Congress has been kinda used to whipping around these corners and pulling in at the last second, but they haven't had to face a blown tire when they're deep in the hairpin.

[Pariah]

But you have heard of him.

 

Former NFL Player Herschel Walker Honored With ‘Idiot Of The Year’ Award

[unclevlad]

I'm sure he was the runaway winner, at that...