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Simon

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Astonishingly, even the Washington /senate race has become a nailbiter. In July, Patty Murray had a 20-point lead over no-experience Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley, on record as an anti-abortion absolutist. After what must be millions in TV ad buys blaming Murray for inflation, crime, drugs, and everything short of the Reichstag fire, Murray's lead is down to 3 points. Smiley might actually win -- a reminder that Washington is really West Idaho, narrowly overbalanced by Seattle.

 

Dean Shomshak

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7 hours ago, unclevlad said:

I'm not sure my sanity can last 4 more days.  The last-minute media ad blitz is overwhelming.

 

7 hours ago, Old Man said:

Sanity is overrated.  It's much simpler to just go ahead and go mad.

 

"Why go mad trying to keep yourself from going mad? Just go mad now, and save your sanity for when you really need it."

~Douglas Adams

7 hours ago, unclevlad said:

I'm not sure my sanity can last 4 more days.  The last-minute media ad blitz is overwhelming.

 

7 hours ago, Old Man said:

Sanity is overrated.  It's much simpler to just go ahead and go mad.

 

"Why go mad trying to keep yourself from going mad? Just go mad now, and save your sanity for when you really need it."

~Douglas Adams

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7 hours ago, DShomshak said:

After what must be millions in TV ad buys blaming Murray for...

 

This is one of the most frustrating things here in Florida. Apparently, the dems have no money whatsoever. For months the only ads I have seen are Republican. No response from the dem side. None. The DeSantis ads are lies and half-truths and spin, but there's no one to correct him. I think the dems have given up.

 

He won by the narrowest of margins last time. This time it will be a landslide. 

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I've read that it's common practice for political parties to concentrate their campaigning resources on regions/races they think they have a shot at winning. In the case of Florida I believe that's short-sighted. DeSantis has very dangerous long-term plans. Even if he wins in Florida, his opponent making a strong showing would undercut those plans.

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4 minutes ago, Lord Liaden said:

I've read that it's common practice for political parties to concentrate their campaigning resources on regions/races they think they have a shot at winning. In the case of Florida I believe that's short-sighted. DeSantis has very dangerous long-term plans. Even if he wins in Florida, his opponent making a strong showing would undercut those plans.

 

Yeah, my thought as well.  This isn't a situation where 'business as usual' tactics apply...

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But so much of the spending has been national-party linked...R/D governors, R/D congressional PACs.  The congressional races, it's nothing to do with any of them individually, it's about majorities...and less about winning than not losing.  The governors' races are a little different, but I suspect the flip side comes in:  they're saturating markets.  They can't saturate everywhere, tho;  there are limits.  Sort of.  FiveThirtyEight says $9B spent on ads.  For comparison?  2018 was $5.7B.  

 

While I agree with LL that DeSantis is dangerous, he's had a solid lead all summer, and it's increased somewhat in the last month.  He's got the big advantage now that he can run against Biden.  

 

I've also seen it reported that Trump may announce his '24 run quite soon after the election.  Sorry, DeSantis is not my #1 fear for the near-term.

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1 hour ago, unclevlad said:

But so much of the spending has been national-party linked...R/D governors, R/D congressional PACs.  The congressional races, it's nothing to do with any of them individually, it's about majorities...and less about winning than not losing.  The governors' races are a little different, but I suspect the flip side comes in:  they're saturating markets.  They can't saturate everywhere, tho;  there are limits.  Sort of.  FiveThirtyEight says $9B spent on ads.  For comparison?  2018 was $5.7B.  

 

While I agree with LL that DeSantis is dangerous, he's had a solid lead all summer, and it's increased somewhat in the last month.  He's got the big advantage now that he can run against Biden.  

 

I've also seen it reported that Trump may announce his '24 run quite soon after the election.  Sorry, DeSantis is not my #1 fear for the near-term.

Y'know, call me crazy, call me dumb, call me late for supper, but I am not 100% convinced that turning political polarisation into a sector of the for-profit social media/news/entertainment sector is the wisest course of action. I mean, maybe nine billion dollars turns out to be the peak of an unsustainable financial bubble, but even so . . . .   

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I'm more worried about '24.  In '20, the number was $14B.  If '24 is also +50%?  We're looking at over $20B in political ads.  

 

And if the 'Pubs do nothing more than make the House VERY close, the Dems will phrase it as an existential crisis for democracy;  the Pubs will be trying to complete their power seizure, and *hammer* their standard themes, along with their Trumpist ones.  It'll start early and never let up.

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4 hours ago, unclevlad said:

 

While I agree with LL that DeSantis is dangerous, he's had a solid lead all summer, and it's increased somewhat in the last month.  He's got the big advantage now that he can run against Biden.  

 

I've also seen it reported that Trump may announce his '24 run quite soon after the election.  Sorry, DeSantis is not my #1 fear for the near-term.

 

Honestly, I'm more concerned over DeSantis in '24 than Trump. The latter is becoming increasingly unstable and incoherent. I don't believe he could sustain a compelling campaign. DeSantis is perhaps no worse as a person, but he has more self-control and focus.

 

But I'd love for Trump to declare his candidacy. Let those two.. people... eat each other alive fighting for the nomination. That would leave both of them weaker.

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